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Dodecahedron

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Everything posted by Dodecahedron

  1. Dodecahedron
    3-4 of the items on this list are disputable, but that's OK. It's better than griping.
  2. Dodecahedron
    I have seen it happen many times that the Vikings would lose to a team in the playoffs, then trounce that team in the regular season in the following year. At the absolute very least the Twins should adopt this, but we have seen this before a few times and none of us are expecting anything but losses for the Twins. Some of these losses will be assuredly bizarre.
  3. Dodecahedron
    Because of the Twins-Sox rivalry, my first thought was Colome was gonna tank. I'm not saying he is tanking, and logically I doubt he is, but nonetheless that was my first thought. I did not like the Shoemaker signing, but I also did not realize how little depth this team has. Still, I probably would have passed and leaned on the farm.
  4. Dodecahedron
    Griffin Jax is the prototypical name for the Han Solo caricature that has been in every sci-fi show since Star Wars. Will he be pitching against The Empire Yankees this week?
  5. Dodecahedron
    Kirilloff can hit lefties, Sano can't. Platoon them until Sano is traded. This will give both players the best chance to succeed. Sano to boost his trade value, Kirilloff to help his confidence.
  6. Dodecahedron
    That was weird. Drake's FIP kept enticing everybody, I guess. He had a nice time with the Twins, though. Not sure why the Twins cut him at the first opportunity after he finally started pitching to expectations.
  7. Dodecahedron
    This team is like the giant crack that was discovered on the bridge recently. We somehow missed it before, but now that we see it, we know it's going to take a hell of a lot to fix it. We also know the fix will take a long time. This is the first summer after a global pandemic. Get out there and enjoy yourself, there are no guarantees in life. The Twins have enough pieces and play enough inconsistent teams to where there will be some fun games to watch this summer. But we don't know when those games will come, and eventually the trades will start which will make those fun games happen even less often.
  8. Dodecahedron
    There are the 5 starters that broke camp, plus now Dobnak, Thorpe, and Ober. That's it. 8 guys. Plus, Ober seemed like a reach and Dobnak is unpopular. There is still a chance Dobnak's detractors are correct. So they broke camp with 6 viable arms in the organization? 5 if you admit that Shoemaker should have never been here? Yeesh. Without looking, I will make a guess that 8 starters used so far is probably around average for the league, if not less than average. I'm sorry but I can't buy the argument that Shoemaker is the best the Twins have when it does not look to me like the Twins have made an effort to address the starting pitching at all. There is no way this is the entire depth of the Twins system. Is there? Gosh I hope not. If it is, what were they thinking and how did we miss this fact 3 months ago? If a team can't even swap out the #5 guy after only using 8 starters, what else can't they do?
  9. Dodecahedron
    He's talking about the font at the top -- specifically the obliterated I -- I'm talking about the side gutters on the web page looking like the welcome screen on the dial-up message boards that predate the commercial internet.
  10. Dodecahedron
    Tyler Duffey's initials are TBD. Just saying.
  11. Dodecahedron
    Does anyone know why the official MN Twins web page margins look like they were drawn for an early 90s Bulletin Board System (BBS)? Is this a bizarre tribute to the 1991 team? Does anyone know the story about why this was chosen? Is there a story, or was this task simply given to an intern or employee's child? Is there stuff like this all over the stadium too? Twins: If you cannot afford photoshop, there are free alternatives. You don't have to overthink it -- just look at what the Red Sox did with their website margins.
  12. Dodecahedron
    Yes, people would have complained about signing Rich Hill, the same people complained when he was signed in the first place after all. Not liking Hill was certainly the majority opinion. However, almost no one complained about the Shoemaker signing at the time, and heck people still say they understand why he was signed. However, no one is suggesting this is why the Twins passed on Hill or signed Shoemaker. Only they know the reasons why. Neither the front office nor Baldelli seem to make "popular" choices, they are making choices that they think are the best for the team. This is good, not many are born in the right circles who can succeed by simply following the herd, but this doesn't change the fact that the crew made some very bad decisions in the past year!
  13. Dodecahedron
    Right. Sell now if you want 110 losses and you want to put everyone's jobs in jeopardy while mucking up the revenue stream, making it that much harder to rebuild. Bad plan.
  14. Dodecahedron
    Exit velocity shows the hitter can hit the ball hard, not much more. However, launch angle + velocity = distance. Science. But baseball is smart. Focusing on hitting it hard and far means the hitters are no longer focusing on directional hitting. Thus, the shift, the annoyance of everyone. Puckett would probably not have a favorable view of how the game is played today. It's become very ... basic. Very brutalistic. Take a look at the hit that won the 1991 world series, where the Twins beat the shift with a perfectly placed hit. Baseball provided the data for this insight, then realized it was too much information and deadened the baseball. Good teams have to see this coming and constantly adjust. The MLB made no secret of their changes, so there isn't an excuse for failing to adjust. Signing garbage pitchers because you thought your team would hit 300 home runs did not work.
  15. Dodecahedron
    The Rays aren't the type of team who gives away prospects when they don't have to. They are hitting very well this year. I think every team in the AL that is over .500 at the moment would be interested in Cruz. Tampa would certainly take him if the Twins were just giving him away, but the other teams might actually make a worthwhile deal.
  16. Dodecahedron
    To be fair, Kelly didn't have any 100 loss seasons. I credit Kelly for being able to avoid 100 losses with those abysmal teams. Gardenhire, too.
  17. Dodecahedron
    It seems like it would be satisfying to come in and fire everybody when things aren't going right, but it's not. I worked somewhere where a certain division was not performing. Somehow, someone near the top of the organization successfully sold the idea of firing the entire division. Many of the workers were very smart and competent, and they were doing what they had been told to do. Only certain managers should have been fired. (The person who made this decision then hired friends of his to run the new division. Unsurprisingly, him and everyone he hired were gone within a year.) Some people say that you never know how valuable someone is until you fire them. This is an oversimplification, but there is a kernel of truth behind it. Letting people go for performance reasons should be surgical, and it should be the last resort. The first step to dealing with a manager making mistakes is not to fire them after they fail. The situation with players is different. Players can't be "fired." Constructing rosters is an artform, as is building a winning culture. At least 20% of every leader's time should go into keeping culture and relationships healthy and fed. If the white-collar brass are not doing this, that's where they need to start.
  18. Dodecahedron
    I truly thought next week would be the final nails in the coffin for the season, not this week.
  19. Dodecahedron
    False equivalency. The impact of an error to the baseball game does not depend upon the % chance of making the play. On an unrelated note, how many errors are charged when a system predicts a player only had a 10% chance to make the play? I would argue if a system is spitting out something like that, there is something wrong with the system. The theory in football is that if you can touch a ball, you can catch it. Whether or not 90% of other players can make it to a fly ball or not doesn't matter. If Player X can get in position but then still have a miscue, it's still the miscue that matters. If a superhero fielder can reach any spot on the field in 2 seconds, but drops everything that hits his glove, what truly matters about that player?
  20. Dodecahedron
    I think so. He has too much upside. The concern to a new team would be ... is Sano terrible this season because he is injured? A full physical and interviews with the Twins medical staff would answer that question. If he isn't injured, its the circumstances, which can be improved. Even the biggest skeptic of Sano can picture him smacking grand slams in the playoffs and in the world series. Unlike with David Ortiz, there would be no sour grapes in Twins Territory with watching Sano do this in some other uniform (unless it's with the White Sox, of course). The long-term question with a team taking on Sano would be ... can they weather his drama? Some teams surely think they can, or they think his drama isn't a concern. My opinion is that the Twins organization is not a fit for Sano. This is in no way representative of his abilities. He can and will have great moments in the future. I'd rather the Twins find someone with a more stable bat and better defense. .800 OPS is .800 OPS, whether you get there via 35 home runs and 200 strikeouts or 20 home runs and 50 strikeouts.
  21. Dodecahedron
    That's part of it. However, an error is more likely to affect the outcome of a game than an out, or even a base hit. Errors should be weighted highest, not disregarded. A fielder's choice is good, but it's not the same as a regular out. A base hit is a worse outcome than an out, and it should also be weighted higher than an out.
  22. Dodecahedron
    Defensive metrics have the wrong approach. This should be the hierarchy of valuable-to-least-valuable to measure: 1. Error 2. Not an out 3. Out In other words, defensive metrics have it backwards. Just like how a home run is not the same thing as a single, an error is not the same as getting an out or even not getting an out. Every fielder gets an out, what, I'm guessing 90% of the time? Higher? There's the baseline -- measure what happens in the rest of the plays and the how.
  23. Dodecahedron
    Gotcha. Part of the narrative for Berrios is the years of control. The Yankees used that to trade Gray a second time. Did the Yankees get the better deal? An equivalent deal?
  24. Dodecahedron
    I would not fire anybody without having more information. If I were in charge, I would approach everybody individually and ask each of them to give me a 30-60-90 day plan for how each of them will improve the performance of the organization. This includes the front office, the coaches, the players, etc., anyone who has been on the field or contributed to putting players on the field and strategy. With that in hand, I can analyze several things. Does this person seem to understand the problem? Is this person willing to work on themselves, and, more importantly, help and support others? Provide plenty of coaching to the employee so they understand this ask. If a high performing person believes the issue is with the bullpen, for example, and not himself/herself, that's ok. What matters is how this person intends to contribute to helping either fix the issue or fix the culture. I think we can all make pretty good guesses for a couple of people who would not respond well to being given this task. These players would be on the short list to go should this prediction be proven true. It may sound like a cliché, but culture is everything. From organizations to small teams to projects, top tier success is due to culture. Effort and positive attitude don't happen if the culture is shot.
  25. Dodecahedron
    Sure. But doesn't it get boring to talk about luck? Or maybe being hurt? Or maybe declining? These are all shadows on the wall, none of these statements are meaningful. The players on this team are not performing as they have shown they are able. People who are on the IL are obviously injured and there is nothing the Twins can do about that. But for the rest of them, "I'm just unlucky" or "I'm declining" and especially "I'm hurt" are not viable excuses. This team is not full of 35 year olds or something, "a team in decline" is just not reality. Luck? Come on. Why train for a lifetime if it just comes down to luck? That's not reality. Skills beat luck. Effort beats luck. When you decline, you work harder. When your luck is down, you pick it up the next day and try again. When you're hurt, you tell people. What you don't do is stop playing defense and start swinging at anything thrown at you. That's lazy.
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