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Dodecahedron

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Everything posted by Dodecahedron

  1. Dodecahedron
    More roster spots would only further the divide between good teams and bad teams. A Terry Ryan-style team would add a couple of AAA guys to the roster. A Steinbrenner-style team would add proven performers close to their primes.
  2. Dodecahedron
    I was surprised the Twins did not make this move when Dozier left. Heck, they should have moved Sano to first at that time too. Both Cron and Schoop were only "Good enough", just delayed the inevitable, and were ultimately just a waste of $. Imagine that 101-win season with a better infield defense.
  3. Dodecahedron
    I'm OK with that. Nothing bothered me more than watching Mientkiewicz taking every first pitch, no matter what, every time. It's like the old saying -- if you never ask, the answer is always no. If you don't swing, you'll never get the hit. Rosario had results that would make many players envious. Rosario hits more pitches that were out of the zone than any player should.
  4. Dodecahedron
    Eddie was 3rd on the team last year in walks, and he has proven he can hit the ball and get on base whether the pitchers throw him strikes or not. Eddie really is not the guy who a pitcher can pitch around and hope for a positive result. He can hit pitches in the dirt, he can hit pitches over his head. I would love to know how opposing catchers and coaches recommend how to pitch to him. It's probably just to throw him changeups and pray the ball stays in the infield when he makes contact.
  5. Dodecahedron
    Judging by the sources you listed, I think you probably agree and are not criticizing.
  6. Dodecahedron
    I will repeat what I said elsewhere. This starting rotation has the potential to be the best rotation the Twins had since the early 90s. Have we been so conditioned by seeing mediocre starters that we don't recognize a good staff when it finally surfaces? Defense matters. If Buxton stays healthy*, with the other defensive upgrades the team made, the Twins pitchers will look a hell of a lot better from top to bottom. *I just won the prize for having typed this phrase the 1,000,000th time on social media.
  7. Dodecahedron
    When it ices in Texas, bad things happen.
  8. Dodecahedron
    Signed to a minor league deal.
  9. Dodecahedron
    I also talked about how those teams had great set-up men and a great closer. Rincon and Romero, who I consider the best of those set-up men, were both using PEDs. PEDs helped pitchers too.
  10. Dodecahedron
    I read a lot about how the question mark this year is the starting pitching staff. I did an exercise recently where I pulled up baseball-reference and looked at the pitching staffs, year-to-year, going back until I found a Twins pitching staff that performed at the level this group of starting pitchers is capable of. I went all the way back to 1992 before I found the team. I expected to find a similar staff in the early 00s, at the latest. This should be exciting. We know the hitters have been there, now the team will have good starting pitching. Of course, it will need a good bullpen as well. I invite anyone else to do the same exercise. The Twins won the division many times with a bunch of 4.00+ ERA yobs. (Granted, they had a 1-2 punch of Joe Nathan plus a couple of elite set-up men to shut teams down on the back end -- if we want to talk about this team having a hole, it's this).
  11. Dodecahedron
    Some of you may be too young to remember the Senior League. It was a short-lived league of older players. Though attendance was low, they had a TV deal and we were all able to catch some games if we wanted to watch. The games were better than you would expect and some players, both hitters and pitchers, put up astronomical stats. At the beginning, the rule was that players had to be 35 or older, but this rule was changed to 34 before the league ceased operations. The league folded after a year and a half, but it was just starting to get noticed. The owners planned to return to play in the following year, but the players were no longer trusting of the owners. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senior_Professional_Baseball_Association
  12. Dodecahedron
    The AL Central is unique. The Twins can keep the playoff window open indefinitely unless something changes and the division sprouts mass competence. Winning a playoff game and advancing in the playoffs is another story....
  13. Dodecahedron
    Though maybe with less juicing.
  14. Dodecahedron
    Baldelli had a very good response. He essentially said, talking about this is pointless. He said they have to do it on the field, and then he added that talking about it is not only pointless but may actually hurt them. Baldelli must be a longtime Vikings fan. Whenever the press begins to paint the VIkings as good, the embarrassing collapse is imminent.
  15. Dodecahedron
    It's broken for sure. Player salaries are artificially low before they hit free agency. One player making $500k doing the same job as someone making $12M, and potentially being just as good if not better, is ridiculous. This is not even the most extreme example. The problem is fixing this would mean lower paydays for free agents, which the union would never agree to. Having free agency start earlier is the solution, but the money has to come from somewhere. The union knows it. Teams know it too -- and yes some teams like the old Twins actively took advantage of it and were not using the system as intended. With both sides not really wanting to change it, how would it get fixed?
  16. Dodecahedron
    90 free agents signed who are over age 31+ sounds like the exception to me. Aren't there around 900 players under MLB contract at any given time, minimum?
  17. Dodecahedron
    All true, but these are exceptions, right?
  18. Dodecahedron
    I appreciate Trevor's viewpoint, but if anything we are seeing players playing longer. The steroid era lengthened many careers, no doubt about it. Now that the steroid era is ending, career trajectories are going back to normal. In any case, it has been known for a while that: 1. It is key that players hit free agency before they are 30 (the younger the better) 2. Players get the maximum salary when they first hit free agency, and further contracts are not guaranteed. There have been metrics that show for years when the decline starts. Predictive metrics are taking this knowledge into consideration when they predict players like Dozier and Plouffe will decline. And let's be honest -- we all know Dozier and Plouffe, although they had good years, are cooked. I appreciate Plouffe's opinion, but for accuracy, I give it a D-.
  19. Dodecahedron
    Does the #5 typically start playoff games? Heck, many times they are not even on the roster.
  20. Dodecahedron
    I agree that Garver had a very poor 2020 and an unsustainable 2019. I feel like he will still do some good things, but time will tell.
  21. Dodecahedron
    Ah, I answered my own question. Those metrics tie at-bat events to this table: http://www.tangotiger.net/customlwts.html Thus, it's not measuring actual runs or actual events that happen in at-bats. Personally, I don't find these approaches reliable predictors, but they are fine for looking backward. What we really need is: - How many hits did Garver have off of fastballs - How many hits did Garver have off of other pitches v. previous year(s) And - How many strikes did Garver have off of fastballs - How many strikes did Garver have off of other pitch types v. previous years(s) Then we can verify your statement. Does anyone have this?
  22. Dodecahedron
    Yes, I saw that, but those are weighted runs and not hits. I'm also unsure of those are actual runs or a "runs generated" type of uberstat. Is there something quantitative that shows that he can't hit fastballs anymore?
  23. Dodecahedron
    True, but what's the right price for a pitcher whose body seems to be breaking down? Odorizzi is a big risk to pay him anywhere near what he is worth when healthy, I don't blame owners for looking at other options first. I'm sure he will play somewhere and get a chance to prove 2020 was a fluke. Teams are probably talking to him, but maybe not teams in markets that are very interesting from a postseason perspective.
  24. Dodecahedron
    I have not been able to find data to back this up. Can you point me in the right direction? For the data I can see, there are two things that stand out: - He was hitting the ball just as hard as before, but his launch angle increased 3 degrees. He was not getting good contact. - He was swinging and missing on more pitches, both inside and outside of the strike zone. Everything I can see suggests this was a standard, boring, run-of-the-mill hitter's slump which he was probably trying to overcompensate for, amplified by a shortened season.
  25. Dodecahedron
    If the Twins can win division crowns with #2/#3 starters like Carlos Silva, I'm not understanding the problem with #5 Dobnak. This doesn't even mention the division crowns the team won in that era with the always-changing rag-tag crew of #3s to #5s, who in retrospect probably should have been dressed in clown suits. It's not hard to see why those teams rolled over in the playoffs. I share Falvey's enthusiasm for this pitching crew, including Dobnak. We all should. This pitching staff, if it remains healthy, is the best we have seen in a long time.
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