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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Hopefully it means Catcher Of Wicked Hops.
  2. ashbury
    I perceive quite a streak of entitlement throughout this court nomination process. Now, we're being told in effect that the low hurdle a nominee must pass is not having been actually had charges brought against him for attempted rape at a party. Police weren't called - hey, he must be a swell guy. Common sense would prevail if the nominee didn't check all the right boxes for the political party in control.
  3. ashbury
    I see it's your first post. Welcome.
  4. ashbury
    ... if you value bat over glove. He flunked the eye test for me last year, this year's bWAR or fWAR for defense isn't favorable. IMO he looks better on first glance than he really is. He could improve.
  5. ashbury
    A third alternative, one which may be as much of a pipe dream as "lower wages will mean lower ticket prices for me the fan": the MLBPA wakes up and decides that living wages for a hundred aspiring MLBPA members per team is worth one fewer $6M major league contract per team. Because that's approximately the tradeoff. The fourth alternative would seem to me to be $1M trimmed here and $1M trimmed there (scouting costs, prospect bonuses, etc), and a new equilibrium is reached - with all teams affected, there's no competitive penalty. That's the way I would bet.
  6. ashbury
    I hope so, because maybe they can send me the $25 per ticket differential between current pay and a $50K salary for 20 or so players on the roster. I mean, it's probably about $800K higher payroll, divided by the 160K attendance I see for CR. That's $5, not $30. Not to mention that essential businesses can sometimes pass along cost increases, but optional entertainment businesses must deal with the fact that revenue and expense are very nearly disconnected. Minor league teams might increase their ticket prices by $1, if they think they can get away with portraying it as "for the players". The rest will come from higher subsidies from the major league teams, who in turn have limited scope to simply pass along cost increases. Not to mention, MLB pays minor league salaries. Teams at each level charge what the market will bear, pure and simple. If they could charge more, they already would. Somehow they'll cope.
  7. ashbury
    Cruel but fair.
  8. ashbury
    Concur. If the Opener means anything, using it to help nursemaid a rookie seems to make sense. It's not going to make a good pitcher out of a bad one. It's not even going to make a pitcher much better, at all. But if it acts as training wheels, even as a placebo to let the pitcher relax a bit for his first batters, it seems like it could be of value. With all this discussion, I'm viewing it as more like a flexible tool than any kind of dogma.
  9. ashbury
    The 2018 Twins are below league-average in runs scored. They are also worse than average in runs against. Manny Machado or Clayton Kershaw, alone, would not fix things. I'm unable to address the question as stated. The needs are too vast. Or, maybe I'll address it as: The Twins biggest off-season need is for the new front office to distinguish themselves, after a couple of years of seeming analysis resulting in some hopeful groundwork being laid in the minors, but only so-so results (if that) in the majors.
  10. ashbury
    You are more honest than many. I'll save further typing for some other poster or some other topic.
  11. ashbury
    I didn't bring up Wilson in the first place. But, someone did try to suggest that a manager might try to defeat the Opener strategy by moving a stud hitter down in the lineup. That would come at the expense of one or more lesser hitters being elevated to additional plate appearances over the course of a season, however often this strategy was attempted. Wilson serves, for discussion purposes - other choices would be merely less bad.
  12. ashbury
    Normal lineup: if Bobby Wilson makes the final out of the game, say in his fourth PA, then Eddie Rosario had four PA too. If it was Bobby's fifth, Eddie got five too. Nothing the manager can help. Rosario batting anywhere below Wilson to confound the Opener Strategy: if Bobby Wilson makes the final out, Eddie Rosario had one fewer chance. That's the manager outsmarting himself.
  13. ashbury
    If, absent a fancy starting pitcher strategy I come up with, the opposing manager would have constructed an "optimal" batting lineup, then any deviation he comes up with counts as being in my favor. I'd love it if Mike Trout batted 5th in some futile attempt to outsmart my manager - it means fewer plate appearances for him in the long run. So I don't care if counter-measures erode an advantage my strategy otherwise creates. I feel as though I'm still coming out ahead, of not doing it. This is somewhat separate from the question of whether the Opener concept is even sound and does in fact confer an advantage.
  14. ashbury
    It may not work all that much more often, I mean on top of what the standard strategy would produce. It's not going to be a 10-WAR boost. All you can do is put your players in a position to succeed. They still have to succeed. If your "starter" achieves average looking results against a lineup stacked toward the bottom half, maybe that not average, and is not success, and is on him.
  15. ashbury
    Moderator's note: Several posts that amounted to bickering have been removed.
  16. ashbury
    I think what motivates the strategy isn't "what's best for Kohl Stewart?" nor "what's best for Jose Berrios?", but "what's the best way to handle the top of the opponent's lineup?" Facing batters a third time seems to be a defining mark for a multi-innings pitcher. If Berrios at a disadvantage the third time through is still better than a lesser pitcher who is fresh, then let him pitch inning #1. If Stewart needs all the help he can get, at this stage of his career perhaps, then let a specialist try to pave the way for him.
  17. ashbury
    If you want to make an issue of the Opener versus Starter topic, let me point out that this game worked almost perfectly as a way to squeeze an extra inning out of a nominal starter. Moya pitched the first inning, then Stewart came in and faced the #5 batter in the lineup to start the second inning. He faced the lineup twice, then saw the #5 through #9 batters a third time. That #9 batter made the third out of the seventh inning. So Kohl Stewart achieved his first 6-inning appearance in the majors. You need more than one game to prove anything, and you need a better opponent than the 2018 Tiggers. I'm skeptical that games can be routinely choreographed to this level of detail. But, if someone asks you what the idea is behind the Opener strategy, this game is the example you might point to.
  18. ashbury
    Conversely I didn't see the FSN version of the ad - mlb.tv substitutes other stuff. The full scene seems nuanced, so I can imagine something being lost if edited too severely for time. Maybe if you feel strongly you can contact the organization and lay out your reasons that they need to go back to the "director's cut".
  19. ashbury
    Chicken. It's what's for dinner, at this Detroit mainstay.
  20. ashbury
    If you mean what I saw at around the 0:41 mark in this it's not just his hand on her shoulder, it's the "oh not again" look in her eyes, that is meant to convey that this relationship is going wrong. You could shoot the scene the same way but with a brighter and more open expression on her face and it would be worlds different. But that of course wouldn't illustrate the horrifying statistic that they're trying to address. Not to mention, the lingering touch doesn't seem in keeping with routine algebra help. It looks like he's trying to page through the book with one hand when it would be easier with two. As the father of a (grown) daughter, I take no personal offense at that scene. I think the video director got it, spot on.
  21. ashbury
    He loves to pitch so much, that 1-2-3 innings are just too short and not satisfying for him. He wants to stay out there longer.
  22. ashbury
    After the first round, it's almost like if they had won the World Series and were picking last. So, aside from Royce Lewis as an extra prize, how do you like their 2017 draft, say versus the Cubs', whom they picked right after?
  23. ashbury
    I watched Austin make catches on 3 foul popups in 2 innings, at that one game in Pawtucket a few weeks ago. Of course at a AAA park there isn't a pit in foul territory to watch out for.
  24. ashbury
  25. ashbury
    Johnny Field. You can not stop him, you can only hope to contain him.
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