ashbury

This Article Aged Well.™

Rooting against the Twins is a different type of pathology that we're seeing here and there, too.

Don't be deceived. The Royals may have scored only eleven runs off the Twins' pitching staff, but that's because they were permitted only eight innings to try. Just one of those funny little quirks about the sport of baseball that make us love it even if there can be no possible rational explanation for the discrepancy.

Ask the Pohlads. I just provided a data point you can think about. How much IS enough? Keep adding dollar increments until we're up with the Dodgers? Where is your data for what an incremental dollar of payroll returns in revenue? Do you know what an S-shaped curve is, or a hockey stick graph? There are days of the week where I say, it takes money to make money. Today is apparently not the right day, sorry.

In a similar vein, how about some love for Ron Coomer? He barely makes the cut, with the 2000 Twins season before moving on. (Unless "since 2000" means "beginning 2001 and not one game earlier.")

They did invest when they signed Correa the first time. Attendance per game jumped from 19th in the majors the year before... down to 20th in the majors in 2022. They doubled down on the same investment and signed Correa again, to a more ironclad contract. Attendance jumped... all the way back to 19th. Do you suppose the business-minded folks in the ownership team took note of this experiment and made a judgment about the market they are serving?

With a revolving-door of randos on the roster, Twins games have become pretty random.

"Senior Director, Strategy & Insights" for sure sounds like it requires a PhD in Thinkology.

No. The moment they traded away both Duran and Jax, winning in 2026 went out the window. Not because of their special skills, but because it put in bright neon colors what the FO intends.

If they replace all the Johnson boys (and girls), the Twins will have to go on a hiring spree: Senior Director, Strategy & Insights: Brandon Johnson Manager, Consumer Membership & Service: Cory Johnson Senior Director, Partnership Activation: Amelia Johnson Senior Manager, Radio Partnerships & Administration: Amy Johnson "My name is Yon Yonson, I live in Visconsin..." (Oh, and there's also Sean and Deron, who I assume you have in mind.) As for future HoFer Noah Miller, I laid out my reasoning in a "show your work" kind of style, and others can repeat the analysis and reach different conclusions if they wish. I will say though that someone reaching AAA in their age-22 season needs to be treated seriously - unless you believe players stop getting better at their 22nd birthday. People lose patience so quickly with high school draftees. He's currently hitting his usual empty .235 for OKC, and that doesn't bode well for ever being a starter in the majors. But in case I wasn't being clear, starting is not the only criterion I had in mind for draft success - getting anything beyond "a cup of coffee" out of a #36 overall pick is not to be taken for granted - there is the occasional Randy Johnson or Johnny Bench but also a lot of "who he?" types. Miguel Rojas is 36 years old right now, and maybe by the time Father Time has his final say on Rojas, Miller will have learned a few new tricks at the plate and the Dodgers will choose him as the heir at backup middle infielder (Rojas seems to be really good in that role, BTW). Or, Miller could be a viable trade chip to some other team with that need. But I'll say again, he does still need to improve. Bottom line, "knocking on the door" is a much looser concept for me than it seems to be for you. As I said in my other reply, this is a highly qualitative study, not quantitative. In any case, thanks for reading and commenting.

It isn't really, and I don't especially want to turn it into that. But it isn't "not", either. I'm just putting some qualitative (hardly quantitative) analytics out there for consideration. Readers will draw their own conclusions, largely based on what assumptions they brought in with them. 😀 Firing someone is not the same as looking over the resume as a possible hire; I think the latter is more my motivation right now - looking for that "special sauce" someone has. And the conclusion I'm drawing is that I don't see it. (Which is why I wanted to discuss Jenkins even if it is premature - I believe virtually any FO would have picked him.) But personnel decisions involve other considerations such as whether a perceived flaw (like this one) can be remedied; Falvey still has youth on his side, to a decreasing degree each year of course. It's only a start. If I feel like it's worth it, I should look at the next two or three rounds of the annual draft in the same manner, and see whether any additional trends develop. A third phase would be then to examine all the lower rounds for whatever gold nuggets the draft team has found down there - I think that would require a different methodology than my "side by side" construction, since the vast majority of mid-to-late round picks never amount to anything anyway - that's a lot of noise and not much signal, too little wheat and so much chaff, to separate out. I also don't know how to separate the "draft" from the "development" part. So maybe the title of this post is in error from the outset, LOL. Maybe it's the case that if the draft choices were swapped along the lines I speculate about, the other team would have taken our guy and developed him better, and our FO would have done less well with the alternative player once he was in the fold. E.g. maybe Charlee Soto would be cruising along at AA and Thomas White would have been hit by that darn, mysterious, totally random injury bug. Maybe Royce Lewis wouldn't have done whatever dumbass thing it was that he did when he tore up his knee the first time. And so it goes. Thanks for reading and commenting.

Welp.

Because he's doing it while switching to first base "Hey! I'm not a middle infielder anymore.. How d'ya like me NOW?" 😀

Or, as some might call him, Noah Countability.

(Only doing this because someone else already did it once today.)

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were brought on board to head the Twins front office in late 2016. We have nearly a decade of drafts to look at now. What might have happened under other leadership? I took a look at the first rounders picked by the Twins 2017-25 and then checked which player was taken next. That's hardly an infallible way to look at it, but resembles a kind of "crowd sourcing" among the dozen or so other GMs in the majors during the same era as to how it might have gone had they been drafting in the Twins place. And it attempts to avoid cherry-picking of one hypothetical outcome or another way, way down the draft list, where multiple other teams whiffed too. I've opted to omit the 2024-25 drafts since it's way too soon to evaluate them, but for the rest I show the bWAR career totals side by side: 2023 Walker Jenkins 0.0 As Jacob Wilson 2.2 2023 Charlee Soto 0.0 Marlins Thomas White 0.0 2022 Brooks Lee -0.8 Royals Gavin Cross 0.0 2021 Chase Petty -0.8 Padres Jackson Merrill 6.1 2021 Noah Miller 0.0 Pirates Anthony Solometo 0.0 2020 Aaron Sabato 0.0 Yanks Austin Wells 2.6 2019 Keoni Cavaco 0.0 Phils Bryson Stott 9.4 2019 Matt Wallner 4.9 Rays Seth Johnson -0.4 2018 Trevor Larnach 3.6 Brewers Brice Turang 11.5 2017 Royce Lewis 4.0 Red Hunter Greene 12.4 2017 Brent Rooker 8.9 Marlins Brian Miller -0.1 Each one is worth discussing, which I'll do from the bottom up. Rooker of course is a very interesting case, and he has turned himself into a quality major league hitter after two other organizations after the Twins gave up on him too. He was a throw-in on the trade that brought us Paddack and Pagan, so even though we didn't reap his full potential by a long shot, at least we cashed him in for something and the next team who was drafting wound up with nothing to speak of. Advantage: FalVine. Royce Lewis is maybe even more interesting. We coulda had Greene, and instead got a player whose potential seems to have been decimated by injury. Advantage: not Falvine. Larnach? He's been okay. The next guy in line has been a whole lot better so far. Advantage: not FalVine. Wallner. He's been somewhat better than Larnach. The Rays didn't do nearly as well Advantage: FalVine. Cavaco. Oh boy. Coulda had a major leaguer. Advantage: not FalVine. Sabato. Oh boy. Coulda had a major leaguer - could we use an additional catcher right now? Advantage: not FalVine. Miller. He's knocking on the major league door with the Dodgers; we traded him for the unique athletic stylings of Manuel Margot. The next guy drafted hasn't panned out yet, although he still might. I'll try not to hold Margot against Miller personally - whether foolishly or not, the Twins cashed Miller in for something. Advantage (ever so slightly): FalVine. Petty. Another interesting case. We cashed him in for two years of Sonny Gray. But, but, but, the Padres have Merrill and will continue to have him for many years, per contract. I don't think the Padres would make that same trade. Advantage: not FalVine. Lee. The current WAR is ugly, but it's reasonable to think he'll continue to have a major league career - by my recollection, it was considered an 8-player draft and the Twins were choosing #8, but give them credit for not overthinking it. The next guy drafted looks like he's not gonna make it. Advantage: FalVine. Soto. This is a comparison of two high-school pitchers, so it's way premature. The other guy has displayed more health/endurance so far, and with good ERAs - he's reached AA at age 20 and not yet missed a beat. Advantage: I'm gonna call this a 'push' for the time being but the tea leaves are currently pointing in the wrong direction. Jenkins. The big kahuna, and the reason I drew the line at the 2023 draft when it's obviously premature. It's interesting because the next guy drafted has reached the majors and is doing very well. Do the Twins now regret choosing Jenkins? I would doubt it - his ceiling is sky high. Would the As have chosen differently than the Twins did, back in 2023? I also doubt it - this was considered a 5-player draft and the Twins were choosing #5. With all things considered, I'm going to maybe be controversial and not call it too soon to tell. Advantage: a push - the Twins simply did what was expected and (arguably) did what any FO would have done. So, count them up. Of the 11 picks, I give FalVine the edge on 4, I call it a push on 2, and it's a worse outcome on 5. But I think that a simple count understates it. Which would you rather have right now? Merrill, Wells, Stott, Turang, Greene? Lee, Gray (suppose we would have extended him), Wallner, Larnach, Lewis? Oof. Going by WAR for 2025 all by itself (it's anyone's guess going forward), I'd have to say: Not An Impressive Body Of Work. I want a 11 Do-Overs. 😀

"I can see now that I should have been more specific."

Including possibly a couple of Manfred Man innings.

Yeah, the "GF" column on pitcher pages at b-r.com takes on a whole new meaning, doesn't it?

This is a multi-faceted observation. Kind of goes with having been driven into the ditch.

9 guys, 26 seasons to work from, and not one is on the current Twins squad. If we're going to be bad, can we at least be fun at the same time?

"Five blown leads. So you're telling me the offense has been clicking."

3 more to tie. 4 to win.

CLEMENS!!!!