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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Who would you have picked #5 overall in the 2023 draft instead of Jenkins? Paul Skenes maybe?
  2. ashbury
    Svelte!
  3. ashbury
    Sometimes being risk averse is the biggest risk. Of course I don't know what the Twins' talent evaluators were telling Falvey. I refreshed my memory and when mlb.com's prospect rankings were released in 2025 they had Tolle as #16 in the Sox system. That's a whole 'nother smoke. Could be a little revisionist history going today.
  4. ashbury
    I really hope Tom's business plan is more nuanced than just f'in win. MLB is a zero sum game in that regard and if that's really the key then half the teams are in financial trouble each season, almost by definition. Which... we know isn't the case, and the converse (looking at you, Tampa) also doesn't hold. It's fine if Tom doesn't tell us everything he knows, and in fact I hope it's the case if that's what he does choose to tell us. I also didn't care much for the analysis in the article itself. The Twins being "back into contention through young talent, veteran production from guys like Josh Bell, and an ace-caliber season from Joe Ryan" overstates the young talent, at least on offense where (at this writing several days later) the Twins' 10.8 WAR from position players largely comes from nearly 10 WAR from Buxton, Jeffers, Larnach, and Clemens, none of whom is likely to get carded at a neighborhood tavern. As for the pitching side, the plus signs have come from Ryan and Ober (not young), Bradley and Gomez (25 and 26, so yes, young). There are young'uns on the roster; they are not currently the reason for being even in mild "contention."
  5. ashbury
    Jenkins bats lefty same as Larnach. At bats for one may be at the expense of the other. Do you sit Jenkns on the bench for 3 games a week so as to give Larnach his swings? If you sit Larnach, why are you hanging onto him?
  6. ashbury
    If Ryan matches up with the guy you want, then sure, work out the details and pull the trigger. But another team might have the right pitcher and be starving for good hitting, and then Ryan might not be the key himself, yet could fetch what is needed. Three-team trades are hard to pull off, but if a GM has patience the end result can still happen over time. Unless the major league squad pretty much runs the table these coming several games, we have until February to really get all our ducks in a row. Meanwhile trading Ryan now gives the receiving team two bites at the apple (this year's post-season, plus whatever 2027 brings), instead of just one by waiting until after the World Series.
  7. ashbury
    I am a little surprised they hung on to Gray in preference to Arcia. Didn't see Arcia on defense, but the eye test must have been really bad, because Arcia has outhit Gray in both AAA and the majors.
  8. ashbury
    58% of people can't do math and the other half aren't too good at it either.
  9. ashbury
    He'll need to be careful. Pine resin can be sticky.
  10. ashbury
    West Sacramento is lovely this time of year.
  11. ashbury
    I imagine that is the unstated subtext in any discussion where BABIP gets raised, either because it's high or because it's low.
  12. ashbury
    I think, if that's your goal (and probably the goal of 29 other major league GMs), you need to turn the question around. What trade chips would a team having that pitcher want in return? Then construct other trades to acquire those pieces and make your offer. Instead of swinging for the fences each time, play Piranha Ball.
  13. ashbury
    Major-league-leading BABIP in RISP situations is a lot of fun until the magic pixie dust wears off.
  14. ashbury
    Basically, if every trade is a "win" in terms of raising the ceiling (and again, this is the OOTP player talking), then I almost don't care if the individual trades are pitcher-for-pitcher, pitcher-for-batter, etc. The sequence is unimportant. What the farm system and 40-man look like next February is the metric. But again, I expect real-world GMs are ALL looking to pull off trades where "I give you 10 chickens and you give me one horse." That's a flaw in OOTP's AI trade mechanism that I exploit to a fault because I play for fun.
  15. ashbury
    The comparison to Berrios may be apt. And, like you, I expect that Anderson is not available for any conceivable trade package (the OOTP AI certainly doesn't lead me to believe he would be). But, there is no rule that says we must do like we did with Berrios and receive two prospects in return. What if the Twins were the team offering the package? Maybe a slightly lower pitching prospect like Ryan Sloan could be attainable, if Joe Ryan were the headliner and a significant prospect was included as well? I don't know what it would take - Ryan plus Emma Rodriguez, in return for Sloan plus a lesser piece? We have so many outfielders seemingly coming of age at around the same time. There isn't room in one major league outfield for all of them. I refuse to believe we can't make use of some of them to swing a really interesting deal. No, we can't simply trade 5 corner outfield bats for one good pitcher, but one trade at a time seems like we could upgrade our ceilings. Like I keep cautioning myself, I have probably played too many hours of OOTP during the past 20 years.
  16. ashbury
    Dman posted at about the same moment I did, and expressed why I am not completely sold on Hartman as a CF long term. I agree that if he can stick in CF then he's not just another Alan Roden. And, bigger picture, I'm not super hung up on who we get in return for the players we want to trade away - because I view the coming 8 months as an opportunity to wheel-and-deal - obtain trade chips that other teams will consider valuable, and then use them to make some splashy trades in the off-season.
  17. ashbury
    Concur. Absolutely. The best pitching prospect in MLB.com's list, currently sporting a 1.27 ERA at AA, isn't going anywhere. Left-handed corner outfielder as the sweetener? Submit your resume to 1 Twins Way, asap, and see whether the front office is hiring.
  18. ashbury
    Just in case there's any actual doubt, yes it was intended in jest. Playing along with your metaphor.
  19. ashbury
    The BABIP gods giveth, the BABIP gods taketh away. Kreidler was an intriguing gamble in the off-season. In 211 plate appearances prior to joining the Twins, his cumulative OPS was a mere .383. But his career BABIP was .198. It's really unusual for a competent minor league hitter to come up and have batted balls find gloves that readily, over and over. I don't call BABIP luck, because some players have a lower baseline BABIP than others (Kepler and Mauer being a couple of notable examples at either end). But .198 looks kind of historic. Lo and behold, after a slow start (which a couple of homers disguised), Kreidler's BABIP approximated league norms - .290 when I looked one time. And his OPS was acceptably in the .700s, just fine for a backup infielder or spot starter, especially since his glove at an important position was good. For a while he had an OPS in the .800s and we thought we really had something. Kreidler had also cut his strikeout rate from the 30% range to the low 20s. Given reasonable BABIP, low strikeouts are going to help the OPS. And now, look at July. His strikeouts are back up around 30%, and his BABIP for the month has been an amazingly low .167 (even worse than when he was a Tiger). With no homers, his OPS for July is .283. Which is the real Ryan Kreidler? Is July just another small sample? I still don't claim to know. He's probably better than we're seeing right now. But maybe May and June were his "career year" and he's one of those low-BABIP guys who put the ball in play in ways that don't make the defense work hard.
  20. ashbury
    Yes. That is all anyone knows. Including the Twins FO, and the Twins ownership, I expect. If our FO is worth their salt they probably have about a dozen significant deals in the works - in framework form if not down to the last detail - across a spectrum of "sell mode," "buy mode," and "muddle through the rest of 2026." For their part, other teams have similar deals under discussion. And the common thread of all these will be "okay, sounds good, but don't make me wait TOO long or I'll have to move on to another trading partner." Absurd things happen, and a four-game winning streak might have Jeremy Zoll telling the office staff on the morning of July 30, "hold my calls. We're one game above .500 and I want to see tonight's game play out. And maybe tomorrow's." Four wins don't change the nature of the team he is overseeing. But it would change the handicap the players are working under if the goal is 85 wins. If Zoll doesn't know, I don't know. Doesn't mean we can't have fun speculating and weighing various scenarios.
  21. ashbury
    This isn't really about baseball, is it, my friend? 😄
  22. ashbury
  23. ashbury
    I believe it's the case that even after this loss, the Twins lead the majors in OPS for RISP situations. Also, not coincidentally, in BABIP in those same cases.
  24. ashbury
    I for one have been mostly biting my tongue, because there's not that much purpose to preaching to the choir and the ones who don't come to church aren't listening.
  25. ashbury
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