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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    One look at their attendance over the years tells me that Tampa Bay is absolutely not the team I want my Twins to emulate. Tampa Bay is bad for the sport.
  2. ashbury
    I feel that way too, and have been referring to DeSclafani as yet another "when healthy" member of the roster. Loading up on those, when I play Out Of The Park in franchise mode, is almost always a recipe for failure. Good thing our FO isn't playing games. The only thing I would add to Stringer's breakdown of the upsides and downsides is this: in 2023 this pitcher spent time on the IL for both shoulder and elbow issues, either of which IMO could turn out to be chronic and increasingly problematic. Shoulders especially can be career-enders, and elbows are no picnic either. It's not like his downtime was for fluky things like trying to field a comebacker and winding up with a cracked patella. If I was asked to contribute my guesswork to FalVine's spreadsheet: 40% chance he contributes essentially nothing, 30% chance he pitches a few starts and then goes down, 20% chance he contributes meaningfully most of the season, and his 10% upside is we find ourselves a year from now wondering why we doubted him. If it comes together for him he could be a Game Three postseason starter. The value of that is high. Odds of that are... low. Two teams now this off-season have paid cash to another team to take him off their hands. That's sobering.
  3. ashbury
    Bubba and Duarte were recent waiver claims. I expect both to be exposed to waivers to make room for Santana and Jackson respectively.
  4. ashbury
    An eye for an eye, a batter for a batter. My guess would be Bubba.
  5. ashbury
    Underwhelmed.
  6. ashbury
    A natural career progression. I'm sure HR explained it all to you at Orientation.
  7. ashbury
    No fair. You invested more thought concerning these two players than I did, or ever would have.
  8. ashbury
    I didn't read it like that. Again, it's because he's grading differently. In the Mariners side of the article, he was explaining that Polanco is valuable but not a star. That kind of set the tone for the conclusion. Suppose the trade had been Daniel Duarte for Ryan Jensen, just to pick a (ridiculous) pair of recent names in our collective consciousness. Because both are mediocrities, one could justify not giving either team more than a "C" as a grade. Nothing for nothing, as the baseline; if you see one as a little better than the other, award that team a "C+". Alternatively, if you see any daylight between the two, another mode of grading might award a simple "A" to the team as having done the better job. Since I don't know the writer from past experience, I wasn't blindsided, is all I'm saying.
  9. ashbury
    Probably nothing. If their waivers had occurred in the opposite order, perhaps our claims and resultant DFA would have gone the other way too. Claim a guy then a few weeks later try to sneak him through. I don't enjoy this aspect of roster management very much, but it seems to be industry standard, and not worth (much) snark. Okay, a little. Is this what you were hoping for?
  10. ashbury
    I think the idea, and it's not exactly how other commentators grade trades, is that the Twins reallocated some surplus into an area needing shoring up, and maximized the realistic return on a guy like Polanco. If DeSclafani is as bad as his overall 2023 numbers indicate, then he's no shoring up at all - but if you share my view that he's (yet another) "when healthy" type, then he's a step in the right direction and provides value. If Topa is a usable bullpen arm, that's value. The two prospects are value. It's not necessarily how everyone will grade a trade, but on a scale of "did the Twins accomplish several things when trading Polanco," I can see their grade. Since Polanco has also slid of late into my "when healthy" pigeonhole, I can see the muted praise for Seattle's side of it. I would have preferred packaging Polanco with additional talent, instead of being the recipient of a package, but on its own terms the trade seems worthy of respect.
  11. ashbury
    Superficially good ERA for Duarte, but other stats (unsustainably low BABIP, few strikeouts) don't give me a warm feeling for continued success. Getting ready for the obligatory "he's just one pitch away from dominance" article. 😀
  12. ashbury
    As long as the Twins aren't playing the A's or the Giants, I can watch on mlb.tv. That's probably not useful information, but it's true information. My calling card.
  13. ashbury
    I think disregarding data of almost any kind is a recipe for letting your competitors get a leg up on you. But properly interpreting data is an art that has to be cultivated - an expert in some other domain can't just walk right in. You are right that college ball numbers aren't going to be like minor league numbers, and low-level college ball is even trickier. "Why don't the numbers line up with what my good scout is seeing" is a question worth asking, and whatever answer you get is even more worthy of care.
  14. ashbury
    The Jays didn't say Manoah isn't available, either. I don't think I'm splitting hairs, when parsing FO-Speak.
  15. ashbury
    Can we please draft every one of Bowen's teammates at UNC Pembroke? He put up ERAs in the 5's in each of the 3 years he was there, and promptly posted a 3.88 at single-A in his first try. Looks like that school does a bangup job at recruiting and then leaves a little to be desired on the skills coaching side. 😀 (I keed, I keed. Sort of .)
  16. ashbury
    Just as in international diplomacy, there are normal sounding English language phrases that have special meaning among baseball front offices. "No plans to move him" means "improve your offers or we're standing pat." In my opinion Manoah's very much on the trading block, but only for the right offer. They won't sell low, and have rejected the lowball offers they've gotten. For the Twins, it would mean one of their very top prospects, and probably the Twins say no to that - but it doesn't mean discussions aren't happening. Saw the same thing in the Polanco trade but in reverse. Their PBO said they had been talking with the Twins about Jorge for 2 years now - over 100 phone calls by his approximate count - but it looks very much like the Twins demanded front-line starting pitching for the entire time and finally caved. Caved is too strong a word (plus it reminds me of Jake), but basically two competent front offices did their jobs and the outcome took that long because both stood their ground. Two years!
  17. ashbury
    That sounded high to me. On b-r.com's League Splits page, left handed pitchers faced 48691 plate appearances, out of a total of 184110. That's just under 26.5%, more like a quarter. Not a big deal of course, I just got curious and thought I'd go ahead and share - a big enough difference to affect some thinking in certain situations. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2023
  18. ashbury
    DeSclafani spent time on the IL in 2023 for both elbow and shoulder ailments. The odds of him getting through 2024 without a recurrence of either are, well, low. Another pitching move is required. If none is coming, my view of the Polanco trade goes down fast.
  19. ashbury
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/joe-smith-announces-retirement.html Joe Smith is inducted as member of a select fraternity: pitchers with good major league resumes who never faced another major league batter after pitching for the 2022 Twins. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer appear to be the other candidates (I don't know whether either/both has officially called it quits). Quite a crop of free agent signings two offseasons ago.
  20. ashbury
    "When healthy" Like a lot of players, when healthy he has put up the numbers. The question for me isn't a four-seamer but whether that shoulder benefits from an off-season of rest and the elbow responds to whatever mix of rest and rehab he's doing. Two teams have now been willing to throw in some cash in order to part ways with him, and that is sobering; conversely that cash reduces the risk to the new team considerably.
  21. ashbury
    I think you have a different idea of the word "risk" than CFOs do.
  22. ashbury
    From 2019-2021 he was rock solid. But after that, there have been multiple IL trips: June 2022: lower back tightness September 2022: left knee inflammation April 2023: left knee inflammation May 2023: left hamstring June 2023: left hamstring It's the repeated nature of the injuries that worry me. It's not like a series of random injuries, such as a broken toe or finger from a wild pitch. Having the knee flare up a second time after presumably an off-season of rest qualifies as potentially "chronic". And I'd prefer to see a hamstring pull not recur shortly after coming off the IL. Is he broken down? I would not say so. But he turns 31 this season. This kind of injury history is something that fits an unfortunate pattern at his age. Perhaps Seattle will get a full season from him like he could deliver when he was 27. Conversely, if you took the same sunny outlook with DeSclafani as you do with Polanco, you might say that "when healthy" this pitcher actually has put up good seasons (or, in 2023, a good half-season). DeSclafani's last season with solid health combined with good numbers: 2021. Polanco's last season with solid health combined with good numbers: 2021. This trade is not as lopsided for 2024 as some are making it out to be.
  23. ashbury
    I'm no financial expert, but by my reading of the article the selling price is almost exactly 10X what it was 30 years ago. That works out to about an 8% return per year. By contrast, the Nasdaq index in mid-year 1993 was around 700, and today it's about 15,000, or roughly 20X (11% return - ah, the magic of compounding). If they were in it for just the money, they might have done better simply investing their millions in an index fund and have three billion-plus now - and they could be better investors than that.
  24. ashbury
    I'm disappointed in that, too. The documentary movie or TV series they would make about your tenure would make Ted Lasso look like the Andy Griffith Show. (Well, the homespun humor of Lasso does have at least a little in common with Griffith already.)
  25. ashbury
    "If healthy" seems to be the mantra for this front office.
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