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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    I guess analytics is stupid then. Case dismissed. Didn't realize it would be so easy.
  2. ashbury
    Is this shorthand for "you can't handle the truth", or some other part of the movie? I don't have encyclopedic knowledge of that lengthy scene.
  3. ashbury
    It sickens me that it's even a discussion, due to right-sizing of the payroll. In a better environment, just negotiate with them all and sign them for what you can, and let the arbitrator do their job on the rest. Trade whoever doesn't quite fit your plans for next spring's roster. Kirilloff is the only one I'd even think twice about tendering a contract offer. Instead we're down to debating whether a modestly paid utility player is too rich for our blood. I'm just about out.
  4. ashbury
    I was trying to talk about choices for the 2025 major league squad, and dipped down to high-A to make the point in the extreme, not to give a rundown on who might be ready in 2027.
  5. ashbury
    I want Keirsey to be that guy, but as the OP states, it's not a sure thing his bat plays in the majors. I want to find out. If Keirsey, in the role of Buxton-backup, has to play a lot, then the outfield has to be modified at least by one corner outfielder not being a left-handed batter. But now we're back to the uncertainty - do you trade say Larnach just on the supposition that Keirsey is a viable major leaguer?
  6. ashbury
    Bring the automated strike zone / challenge system to the majors and watch the number of good pitchers there go down too. 😀 That's my theory and I'm sticking with it anyway.
  7. ashbury
    Do you think they mean the jump itself has become harder? Or is it that AAA batting stats are inflated* (my rule of thumb is that OPS is .050 higher at AAA than it was a few years ago and that might be understanding it), making major-league projections out of date or perhaps more tricky? I already take that latter POV into account when saying that Lee's hitting in the majors really doesn't reflect what his AAA numbers were suggesting. But I also can't equate the body language I saw with him in the majors to the .900 OPS he had at St. Paul - and things like BABIP don't do enough to account for it either. * The semi-automated strike zone is an easy first guess as to why.
  8. ashbury
    Very short term, probably. More than a day or three, probably bring Lee up and pray. But Lee's not really a finished product at SS either - Castro might be steadier, just less talent and upside with the glove. Fair question. There isn't anyone else in the organization and they're not bringing in anyone of note. Maybe Helman holds the fort at SS for some kind of medium-term stint, based only on his usage at St Paul where they apparently viewed him as viable, if barely? Really the only benefit to AAA for Lee is less urgency while he continues to "work on some things" he is assigned to work on in Ft. Myers in Feb/March. The plan is that he makes the case, himself, for promotion, rather than have it be due strictly to need at the major league level. If he doesn't, the cupboard is kinda bare - Ben Ross might have the glove but is far from ready with the bat. Rayne Doncon, Jose Salas? Hahaha. (😢)
  9. ashbury
    Small sample or not, the eye-test confirms the numbers he put up - not hopeless at the plate but far from a reliable bat. For what little it's worth, my own 40-man roster at the moment has him assigned to St Paul to begin the next season - he's not yet someone I rely on, much less count on to be a star in 2025.
  10. ashbury
    I don't really disagree, but consider that the two are not really that close in age (11+ years apart), and when Falvey was brought on board there seemed to be a view in the organization that he needed an older partner with more experience. It always seemed a bit odd that the two were jointly called Boy Wonders by their detractors. It could be that Levine had served his purpose and now it's time to take the training wheels off for Falvey. IOW the PBO/GM model evolved under their tenures. Falvey's still not as old as Levine was when he was hired.
  11. ashbury
  12. ashbury
    "He's fired, Derek."
  13. ashbury
    One solution to that conundrum would be to promote Rocco to the vacant GM chair. I think he'd have the aptitude for the job. And it's possible he'd hire someone as manager who was different from himself. This answer is mostly facetious (the commentariat here would go apesh*t), but I do think a FO role would eventually suit him. Working against that theory right now is that he probably is not ready to give up the on-field role. As for the actual question I'm responding to, others have said nearly the same, but it's my assumption that anyone hired as GM would accept the job on the understanding that removing Rocco from the dugout is off-limits until his present contract expires (whenever the hell that actually is). It's how things played out when FalVine themselves came on board in late 2016 and Paul Molitor remained manager until another losing season would give them cover for making a change. The idea mentioned in this thread that Falvey alone steers the ship now, without filling the vacancy per se, is one I hadn't considered. Certainly multiple shifts within the organization would need to occur, in effect promoting several to "assistant GM", with roles pertaining to contract negotiations and so forth.
  14. ashbury
    Are the Twins a baseball team? A railroad? A floor wax or a dessert topping? The Minnesota Twins surely are the Willi Castro of business enterprises.
  15. ashbury
    Joe Pohlad was born in approximately 1982. Those who think he's young and wet behind the ears, based on hearing of his awkward examples in the art of public relations, are mistaken. He's middle-aged and wet behind the ears.
  16. ashbury
    Flush him then, he'll never make it. 😀
  17. ashbury
    Small sample size, major league versus AAA, but Brooks Lee might be one of the reasons they moved on from Popkins as hitting coach - just never found a way to get the kid comfortable at the plate. The majors are harder than AAA, but not *this* much harder.
  18. ashbury
    I had a five-minute chat with him in a hotel/convention hallway in August, and he was personable and helpful with the specific question I asked, and basically generous with his time when he needn't have been, so that would be mine. 😀
  19. ashbury
    So Thad wasn't able to land a plum position in a few days, and now he'll pursue opportunities "inside and outside of baseball.". That's known as getting canned.
  20. ashbury
    I already replied once, but in the meantime I looked at the STrib* piece by Nightengale on the 29th, and there is this snippet: "Falvey declined to comment on the status of General Manager Thad Levine, whose last known contract extension expires this year." That's more than "conspicuously didn't mention." So the odds are really high that they are just waiting for the right moment, whatever that is. * they have a paywall up but I managed to trick it with my ninja-like stealth
  21. ashbury
    I dom't kmow. As for the OP's question, I don't know for that one either. Baseball is said to suffer from being too "regional," no longer a national sport, so maybe an ALC alliance that focuses on the competition and post-season run makes some tactical sense while making the strategic problem worse in the long run?
  22. ashbury
    For the other quote Brian was also thinking of either Oscar Mayer or Oscar the Grouch, both of which belong in a garbage can.
  23. ashbury
    For all his table setting, he tied for 39th in the majors in runs scored this year, playing for an above-average offense most of the year. Indeed the 88 he scored while still a Twin remains his high-water mark. After a while it stops being a fluke. And of course setting the table is only half the job of scoring runs. He does pretty much diddly squat at the other half, driving them in. I don't hate the guy - he was a lot of fun to have as a Twin - but as a run-scoring force he remains overrated.
  24. ashbury
    Everyone does that. Across the majors this year there were 3088 solo home runs. There were 616 home runs hit with two on base. You'd be hard pressed to find a team, or even an outlier player, who bucks that trend. Actually the Twins did better - a larger percent of their home 183 home runs were of the 3-run variety - than the majors as a whole.
  25. ashbury
    The ecosystem has been in place for many decades by now, and the present big-market owners paid a lot more for their franchises than folks like the Pohlads did. If the Pohlads now want even-steven revenues, they're going to have to do something to make those other owners whole. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth will ensue. Small markets giving an infusion of capital to big markets. I'm sure that will have no impact on payrolls. This Can Only End Well
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