Hans Birkeland

The Twins have struggled against the Guardians recently, and Sunday was no exception. Cleveland took an early lead, gave it up in a fairly silly sequence, and then walked the Twins off on the strength of a walkoff homer by Twins killer Will Brennan. Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack: 8 IP, 3 H 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K (100 Pitches, 72 Strikes, 72%) Home Runs: Jose Miranda (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Duran (-.366), Carlos Santana (-.270), Ryan Jeffers (-.120) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The Twins came into today's matchup with the Guardians on a five-game losing streak, their offense completely shut down by an assortment of Yankees and Guardians pitchers. Those two teams have frustrated the Twins more than any other teams post-9/11, and that trend would continue today. Tanner Bibee took the ball for Cleveland. He has had a down 2024 compared to his rookie season last year, in which he finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. His fastball has been hit hard, despite good velocity, (up to 98 MPH) as it registers in the first percentile regarding fastball run value, according to Baseball Savant. His offspeed? The 98th percentile. His polar opposite is Chris Paddack, who took the start for the Twins. His fastball has rated highly and far outpaces his offspeed and breaking pitches. The first batter he faced grounded to Jose Miranda at third base, who couldn't handle the pick and allowed Tyler Freeman to reach. That would prove crucial, as Andres Gimenez jumped on a 2-0 fastball and crushed it to right center, 412 feet. Jose Ramirez, fresh off being called underrated/unheralded/underappreciated for the 7,000th time, a league record, nearly hit another homer on Paddack's next pitch but Max Kepler made a leaping catch at the wall for the first out. The second inning was much more impressive, as Paddack set the Guardians down in order, emphasizing his change-up and slider and getting several whiffs. In the third inning, Miranda redeemed himself for his earlier misplay, as he took a fastball above the zone at 97 MPH from Bibee and deposited it in the left field seats to cut the lead in half. It was a quality swing from Miranda, but also underscores the weakness of Bibee- 97 MPH fastballs out of the zone should not be hit for damage, particularly if the hitter also has to guard against two other quality pitches. Paddack was cruising by this point, taking advantage of an aggressive approach from Cleveland's hitters to get quick outs and lots of weak contact. He finished his fourth inning at 36 pitches, throwing every non-fastball for strikes, Gabriel Arias was able to hit two balls above 110 MPH, but one was a lineout to center, and the other an innocent double in the fifth. The Twins made plenty of hard contact against Bibee, as well (Particularly Trevor Larnach), but were unable to string anything together. They began the seventh with a Max Kepler double, but Bibee struck out Santana on a questionable call to retire the side. The Twins did the impossible in the ninth, as Jeffers drew a two-out hit-by-pitch and was pinch run for by Byron Buxton. Willi Castro smoked a ball up the middle, and shortstop Bryan Rocchio tried to beat Buxton to the bag. Buxton was ruled safe and that was upheld after review. Alex Kirilloff then hit a weak grounder to first, but Cleveland's closer Emannual Clase inexplicably dropped the ball. Buxton then got caught between third and home, but first baseman Josh Naylor threw to third, and Buxton dashed home to tie the game. This was the traditional Guardians tease, as with two outs and facing Jhoan Duran, singles hitter Will Brennan hit a curveball on the inside corner out to right field to win the game. And I have to write that. The Good: -Paddack was efficient and effective, even while relying heavily on non-fastballs, a good sign for him going forward. -Santana and Larnach were stinging balls all over the park, with almost nothing to show for it. The Bad: -Ryan Jeffers seems to be pressing to lift the offense all by himself. it's not working, although he did spur the Twins uprising in the ninth. -Edouard Julien is really in a funk, unable to drive anything and getting consistently fooled by good pitch sequencing. What’s Next: Pablo Lopez (4-3, 3.93 ERA), goes against Mitchell Parker (2-2, 3.09 ERA) as the Twins begin a series in D.C. Parker is a 24-year-old lefty with good stuff, while Lopez had one of his worst starts of 2023 against the Nationals, although that could be attributed to 30-degree temperatures for that April game. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Boushley 0 0 0 0 0 0 Staumont 17 0 0 0 0 17 Funderburk 29 0 0 38 0 67 Okert 0 6 11 0 0 27 Sands 0 18 0 0 0 18 Durán 0 0 10 0 14 24 Thielbar 0 9 0 0 0 9 Jax 0 0 9 0 0 9 View full article

The Twins coughed up a six-run lead on Saturday, but thanks to Bailey Ober, there would be no such offensive onslaught from the Jays today. Carlos Santana had a big three-run home run and Max Kepler added the insurance as the Twins ruined Alek Manoah's best start in 20 months, notching their 17th victory in 20 contests. Image courtesy of © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports Coming off one of the more surprising losses of the year in Saturday's 10-8 tilt, the Twins faced the mercurial Alek Manoah as they looked to win their sixth consecutive series. Manoah hasn't been anywhere close to good since the 2022 season concluded. What version of him would show up today? The Twins countered with Bailey Ober, who has looked the part of their missing playoff-caliber starter following his season-opening clunker against the Royals. Box Score Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 6 1/3 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K (104 Pitches, 67 Strikes, 64.4%) Home Runs: Carlos Santana (7) Bottom 3 WPA: Santana (.388), Ober (.380), Kody Funderburk (.213) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Manoah's issues have been largely command-based this year following a lost 2023 season in which he lost his mechanics and dealt with injuries. Towards the end of that year, there was some question about where he was as he did not report to the minor league affiliate he was assigned to to work out his mechanical issues. It turns out he was getting multiple physical ailments examined, but the lack of communication was eyebrow-raising. This year, it appears his stuff is back and he proved that today, sitting 96 MPH with his fastball and showing good movement with his secondary pitches. In his first start of the year, against Washington, Manoah showed a lot of swing and miss but lost the strike zone in the fourth inning, resulting in a poor pitching line of 4 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 6 K with two home runs allowed. This against an interesting but still rebuilding Nationals squad. Today Manoah allowed a sharp leadoff single to Edouard Julien but retired the next three hitters to avoid any damage. He walked Willi Castro to lead off the second, but Alex Kirilloff quickly grounded into a double play to end that threat. Christian Vazquez led off the third by reaching on an error, but Austin Martin grounded into a double play of his own to quell that uprising. Manoah's body language at this point started to resemble his Cy-Young runner up form from 2022, as he was strutting about and shouting at Twins hitters, clearly settling into a groove. Fortunately for the Twins, Ober was just as good, and was perfect the first trip through the Blue Jays order, getting whiffs and weak contact primarily from his change-up and fastball. After a 23 pitch first inning, Ober was more efficient, finishing his six and one third innings at 103 pitches, 15 whiffs and ten strikeouts in a masterful outing. The Blue Jays approach seemed to be that they would wait Ober out, hoping for a mistake, but at his best, Ober has pinpoint command and gave the Jays absolutely nothing. Perhaps surprised by the effectiveness of the (until today) broken Manoah, the Twins were aggressive and let the big righty get through six innings at just 57 pitches. Outside of a long fly out from Carlos Correa in the fourth and a sharp single from Carlos Santana in the fifth, the Twins had no answers offensively. That is, until the seventh. Twins Daily's winning "Make It Official!" game recaps are sponsored by Official Fried Chicken, which you can find in center field of Target Field. With a name like "Official," we know we have to be the best in the game every day, and from your first bite, you'll know thats a promise we make good on. After Kepler reached on an error (the second of the day from thir d baseman Ernie Clement) with one out, Castro laced a single to right. The slumping Kirilloff nearly grounded into another double play but reached first safely, and then Santana made the Blue Jays pay by rocking an 2-0 change-up, up in the zone, for a game-breaking three run home run. After Ober got the first out of the seventh, he was relieved by Cole Sands, who gave up three base runners before he was mercifully removed in favor of Kody Funderburk, who got the final two outs, surrendering just a sacrifice fly off the bat of Danny Jansen in the process. The Twins were not done, however, as Julien singled on a 3-0 pitch to start the eighth and stole second. Correa walked and with two outs, Kepler doubled them both home to extend the lead to four. The Good: -Santana continues to sting the ball. His numbers are still depressed by his horrid start, but he has contributed some big hits lately. -Ober with good command is just an elite pitcher, and more often than not, he has been that pitcher this year. -Kepler extended his hitting streak to 14 games, and added another bundle of WPA to his total, which is now at 1.11 for the year. The Bad: -Kirilloff is rolling over on pitches, even when ahead in the count, and is missing on velocity up in the zone. It may be time for the annual game of "Is he hurt or just slumping?" -The Cole Sands magic from April has clearly run out, as he relieved Ober in the seventh with one out, and proceeded to allow a walk, single and hit-by-pitch before exiting in favor of Kody Funderburk. What’s Next: Chris Paddack (4-1, 4.34 ERA) goes against Carlos Rodon (3-2, 3.56 ERA) as the Twins welcome the beloved Yankees to Target Field for a three game set. Twins fans were clamoring to sign Rodon when it appeared Correa had signed elsewhere prior to the 2023 season, but Rodon was not interested in signing with a non tough-guy team like the Twins and ended up becoming an albatross and a symbol for all that went wrong for New York last year, getting hurt and coming back to provide 14 starts with a 6.85 ERA. He has bounced back this year to some extent but looking at his underlying numbers, he has been homer prone with ineffective breaking pitches. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Jax 26 0 26 0 0 52 Durán 18 0 13 0 14 45 Funderburk 0 27 0 0 23 50 Thielbar 14 0 0 25 0 39 Staumont 0 26 0 21 0 47 Okert 0 0 0 11 0 11 Jackson 0 0 0 10 0 10 Sands 0 0 0 28 12 40 View full article

If the person's health matters more than the game (which it does), then shouldn't it not matter if a run is scored or not? If Kepler is standing there saying he is Sparticus, I don't think that necessarily makes him more or less compassionate. It could, but if he doesn't score because he wants to score points on social media or something, that's more of a moral failing than if he scores and actually felt bad about it. I'll reserve judgment until I see brain scans.

The Twins looked primed to extend their winning streak Sunday, applying ample early pressure on offense. But some bad at-bats in key situations, mental lapses and Angel Hernandez ensured that the streak would go no further than 12. Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Jax 10 0 11 0 0 21 Funderburk 0 0 0 0 42 42 Thielbar 0 0 7 0 0 7 Durán 0 0 11 15 0 26 Sands 0 0 12 9 0 21 Alcalá 0 0 0 21 0 21 Jackson 0 0 0 0 35 35 Okert 13 0 0 14 0 27 View full article

Maybe Farmer had a little extra aggression from hitting .050 for four weeks!

The Twins were looking for their seventh win in a row, which would put their record above .500 for the first time since early April. Reid Detmers shut them down early, but they rallied the second and third times through the lineup, and kept it going en route to an 11-5 thumping of the struggling Angels. Image courtesy of © Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports Twins fans have certainly been tempted into unsufferability lately. First, with the team underperforming to a 7-13 start, the sky appeared to be falling. Even so-called "level-headed" analysts thought so and looked for signs of organizational rot to explain such a disaster (Does David Popkins need to be drawn and quartered? Do we even know how to acquire players with plate approaches?) Well, the team won six games in a row on the backs of guys hitting .150 getting their batting average to .200. Lots of guys were hurt, and the schedule was tough. We all should know better by now, and we don't, but the upshot is that the team is now likely to finish April with a .500 or better record. A similar concern popped up with ace Pablo López. He threw a couple of pitches at 91-92 MPH after a 40-pitch inning his last start and everyone freaked out, thinking he was hurt. I was hoping ending the playoff streak would chill everyone out a bit, but I guess not. Although, I haven't been a fan of a baseball team with recent playoff success since I was 14 so maybe this is all normal. In any case, the Twins are (probably) fine and so is López, who sat at 93-96 MPH all afternoon. Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Pablo López: 5 IP 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 8 K (87 Pitches, 55 Strikes, 63.2%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Ryan Jeffers (.166), Austin Martin (.132), Alex Kirilloff (.094) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The Twins were attempting to sweep the Angels but had to beat Reid Detmers to do so. Detmers has been a good pitcher, and is in the midst of his fourth season in the big leagues, despite being only 24. His stuff is electric from the left side, and he has a no-hitter to prove it. In past years, however, the third time through the order has been a problem for Detmers, along with some shaky command. Last year, the Twins faced Detmers on May 19th and were shut out through five innings, with absolutely no hard contact and twelve strikeouts. They mounted a rally in the sixth and drove Detmers from the game. Today, Detmers was locked in from the start, painting change-ups and curveballs on the corners and locating his fastball (as hard as 96 MPH) up in the zone. López was just as good to start, hitting 96 MPH with his fastball and getting whiffs on his offspeed stuff. His body language was confident and his location was sharp. Both pitchers were perfect through three innings. Ryan Jeffers put an end to that to start the fourth, rifling a double off a hanging curveball to break up the stalemate. Byron Buxton then grounded to third, and Nolan Schanuel couldn't handle the throw, putting runners on first and second and nobody out. The broadcast was advocating for a bunt from three-hole hitter Manuel Margot, and considering Margot is hitting .173 and Detmers was dealing, I was inclined to agree with them. Instead, Margot grounded into a double play, seemingly extinguishing the rally. Not quite, as Jose Miranda laced a single to left that scored Buxton easily. Things got worse for Detmers in the fifth. Christian Vazquez singled on a painted slider down and in, and a Resurgent Kyle Farmer roped a double to left, bringing up Austin Martin in a pivotal at-bat. Martin worked the count to 3-2 and then singled sharply through the left side, scoring Vazquez, but also Farmer, who deked the outfielder and scored when the relay was bobbled by catcher Logan O'Hoppe, who had missed a pop-up the previous inning. Jeffers then hit a pop-up that confused the Trout-less outfield of the Angels, with both Jo Adell and Aaron Hicks having a shot at the ball. It dropped and scored Martin, which probably prompted manager Ron Washington to wonder if he could have his old job in Atlanta back. This may have caused Detmers to lose focus a little, as he allowed a loud sacrifice fly to Margot, and a ringing double to Miranda before finally stopping the bleeding by retiring Santana on a grounder. However, the Angels can still hit a little, and they rallied in their half of the fifth, with all damage coming from players who had either had a misplay or error to that point in the game. After retiring the first two hitters fairly easily, López started to lose command, allowing a double to O'Hoppe and a sharp single to Adell before Rengifo launched a 94 MPH fastball from López on the inner half for a two-run homer. Schanuel then went back-to-back with Rengifo on essentially the same pitch, making it a one-run game. López got the final out, but his day was done. The Twins got some insurance against reliever Luis Garcia in the seventh. Martin led off with a walk, Jeffers scooped a breaking ball off the dirt for a single, and Buxton walked after a lengthy battle to load the bases. Alex Kirilloff hit for Margot and worked the count to 3-1 before launching a double the other way to score two and swing the momentum back to the Twins' side. Santana hit a grounder to score the eighth run, and Willi Castro stroked a single to right for the ninth. The Good: -López's velocity was fine. -Miranda got the barrel on a couple of balls, as he looked to make the case that he shouldn't be sent down upon Carlos Correa's return. He finished 3-5 with two run-scoring hits. -Martin also made that case, however, as his fifth-inning RBI single was crucial. He also scored three runs and stole a base. -Jeffers takes a lot of smart at-bats and has shown an ability to find the barrel even when he expands the zone. He went 3-4, upping his OPS to .964. How long does he have to be this good before he gets an ounce of national recognition? He has a 142 OPS+ since the start of 2023. -The interchange between LaTroy Hawkins' perspective as a pitcher and Trevor Plouffe's as a hitter is pretty good TV, and hopefully, that makes up for the late start times going forward when the Twins play on the West Coast. The Bad: -The Angels. I don't see what the plan is. Four or five balls were hit to their outfield this series where the fielder pulled up, possibly to avoid injury. They mix awkward and sad in equal measure; their fans deserve better. -López lost the zone and gave up a lot of hard contact in the fifth. Edouard Julien got looked at by trainers after an awkward swing in the ninth. It looked like he was flexing his elbow, but was allowed to continue the at-bat. What’s Next: Joe Ryan (1-1, 3.45 ERA) goes against White Sox "ace" Garrett Crochet (1-4, 6.37 ERA) as the Twins look to continue their dominance against Chicago. Crochet has great stuff, however, and the Sox just swept Tampa Bay, so it won't be a cakewalk. Postgame Interviews: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Jackson 0 0 0 29 0 29 Funderburk 0 0 0 38 0 38 Bowman 6 0 35 0 0 41 Sands 0 13 0 0 35 48 Stewart 11 20 0 0 0 31 Okert 0 10 0 0 29 39 Thielbar 0 13 7 0 0 20 Jax 9 9 0 0 6 24 View full article

The Twins ended their losing streak at five games on Saturday, but a familiar set of problems presented themselves: The offense let a starting pitcher get into a rhythm, and Louie Varland looked like he needs to iron out some things in St. Paul. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Following a nervous win to end a five-game slide on Saturday, the Twins turned to their most nervous pitcher, Louie Varland, in Sunday's rubber match. He was out of sorts from the outset, and the Twins offense didn't have anywhere near the firepower to back him up. Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Louie Varland: 2 2/3 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 2 K (74 Pitches, 35 Strikes, 47.3%) Home Runs: Austin Martin (1) Bottom 3 WPA: Varland (-.245), Martin (-.116), Kyle Farmer (-.087) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Varland started to game off by walking the first two hitters he faced. This was undoubtedly a reaction to his performances thus far in 2024, in which he has left far too many pitches in the zone in pitcher's counts. You can overcorrect in this game, and Varland may have found the approach he employed against the Orioles and Dodgers may have worked just fine against the far more mortal (outside of Kerry Carpenter) Tigers lineup. If you dabble in writing Louie Varland hate-fiction, you could script the rest of his outing. Spencer Torkelson smashed a grounder to Willi Castro that the shortstop bungled just a bit, barely getting the out at second thanks to a good stretch by Edouard Julien. Carpenter got jammed, but hot hitters will hit, and he dumped a single down the right field line to score the first run. Matt Vierling then walked, Buddy Kennedy hit a sacrifice fly, and then Varland fell behind Parker Meadows 3-1. His fifth pitch was a ball, but Meadows swung through it and then took strike three looking, ending a 39-pitch first inning. Opposing the Twins was former number one overall pick, Casey Mize. Mize missed most of the 2022 season and the entire 2023 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. His stuff doesn't appear to be all the way back, but he did hit 97 MPH and got better as the outing went along. The Twins did take some good at-bats in their half of the first, loading the bases with a Trevor Larnach walk, Byron Buxton single and a walk to Alex Kirilloff. Austin Martin lined out softly, and Willi Castro flied out to let Mize off the hook. Varland somehow walked Javier Baez leading off the second inning but managed his way out of it by getting a charitable strike two call on Jake Rogers (who struck out later in the at-bat), and then coaxing a long fly out from Riley Greene. The third inning started with a single from Torkelson and a hit-by-pitch from Carpenter. After a fortuitous double play off the bat of Vierling, Buddy Kennedy launched a Varland cutter 104 MPH into the seats in left-field, ending Varland's day. He certainly has the velocity and movement profile to succeed as a starter, but Varland is no nibbler, and trying to tickle the edges of the zone with four to five pitches seems a recipe doomed to fail. He would be better served finding a middle ground between today and his first three starts of the year. It remains to be seen if Varland gets that chance next turn through the rotation, as he has never looked worse than today and Simeon Woods-Richardson definitely has more helium down at Triple-A. Meanwhile, Mize looked hardly dominant, inducing only two whiffs the first time through the lineup, both on fastballs. Yet again, however, the Twins struggled to capitalize on the opportunities that presented themselves. By the fifth inning, Mize started relying on his splitter, striking out Julien and Larnach after Christian Vazquez led off with a single. The Twins' bullpen was a bright spot once again, with Cole Sands and Matt Bowman providing scoreless relief through the sixth and (theoretically) keeping the Twins in the game if their offense could break through. They couldn't and Jay Jackson entered in the seventh and nearly served up a two-run home run to Torkelson (it ended up as run-scoring a double) before recovering and working a scoreless eighth inning. Noted Twin killer Tyler Holton shut down the Twins in the seventh and eighth innings. The lefty worked quickly and gave the Twins nothing to hit, improving his career line against the Twins to 15 1/3 innings, allowing one earned run with 18 strikeouts. The Twins tried to make things interesting in the ninth, down 6-0. Martin launched his first big league home run, Castro got a squib double and Santana walked. The Good: Sands and Bowman both look confident, and are slinging some top-tier breaking stuff at opponents with decent command. Buxton looks less overmatched, rifling a single through the left side and putting the ball in play his other three at-bats. Martin kept his hitting streak alive in the ninth with the first home run of his career off Tigers reliever Alex Faedo. The Bad: Kyle Farmer continues to struggle in his at-bats, leaving several men on base in today's game. Varland didn't have many positives from his outing. Jackson and Caleb Thielbar continue to struggle, and remain the only bullpen arms that are not pitching quite well at the moment. What’s Next: Chris Paddack (0-1, 8.36 ERA) faces off against Jonathan Cannon (0-0, 1.80 ERA) as the Twins open a three game series against the White Sox at Target Field. The White Sox were supposed to be bad this year, and they are worse than that, so if the Twins hope to get off the mat at some point this season, there is no better time. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Bowman 0 0 0 3 30 33 Jackson 0 0 0 0 32 32 Stewart 17 0 15 0 0 32 Jax 10 0 21 12 0 43 Thielbar 0 0 17 0 22 39 Okert 18 0 0 17 0 35 Funderburk 0 0 2 22 0 24 Sands 0 0 0 10 23 33 View full article

Bailey Ober turned in a virtuoso performance, but the Twins bullpen faltered late and could not preserve a three-run lead, partially because of some shaky infield defense. Minnesota looked good early against Jack Flaherty, but let him find a rhythm and did not score over the final five innings. Image courtesy of © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports The Twins entered Sunday's game in a strange spot. They have pitched pretty well thus far this season, but their top players have been either injured (Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis Jhoan Durán) or mediocre (Pablo López, Byron Buxton). Just when everything was at its bleakest following an 8-2 trouncing by the Tigers in Detroit on Friday in which Correa sustained his oblique injury, the club went ahead and swept a doubleheader Saturday. You would be forgiven for thinking the outlook felt very much like 2021 and 2018, but with a victory today, the Twins would get their record to .500 and take a four-game series against (arguably) their most legitimate competitor in the division. Well, it looked good for a while. Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 6+ IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (84 Pitches, 58 Strikes, 69%) Home Runs: Christian Vázquez (1) Bottom 3 WPA: Griffin Jax (-.543), Caleb Thielbar (-.200), Carlos Santana (-.081) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): For Sunday's game, the Tigers turned to reclamation project Jack Flaherty and the Twins started Bailey Ober. Flaherty hasn't been the same since he battled arm troubles following his dominant 2019 season. Hopefully, people haven't forgotten what Flaherty did the second half of that year as a 23-year-old: 15 starts with a 0.91 ERA, as he led his Cardinals to the postseason, He's never been near that level before or after that, with injuries and a drop in velocity as well as command turning him into a mercurial fifth starter. The Orioles traded for him at the deadline last year hoping he could become 85 percent of what he was for those magical 15 starts, and the Tigers spent $13 million this past offseason hoping the same. So far, he's disappointed on all fronts. His slider is still decent and his velocity is mid-90s, but the Twins quickly showed how important command is in this league. They made Flaherty battle during the first inning before Willi Castro struck out on a ball inside to end a two-out, two-on threat. They got to him in the second, running a lot of deep counts, drawing walks and finally getting a bases-loaded hit off the bat of Ryan Jeffers. He then gave up a home run to Christian Vázquez, which seemed to irk the starter. His velocity jumped to the high 90s after that, and he simply out-stuffed the Twins from that point forward. On the other side, Ober was trying to build off on impressive outing against the Dodgers last Monday in which his command was excellent and his cutter looked like a weapon. He served up a leadoff double to wunderkind Riley Greene, but settled down from there, inducing pop-ups galore. Ober, when he is going well, can settle into a rhythm where he lulls the batter to sleep, eliciting a ton of swings on pitches they just can't quite get the barrel on. For example, the bottom of the fifth inning took approximately 35 seconds for Ober to retire the side. He had a ten-pitch at-bat with Spencer Torkelson leading off the seventh, and after the Tigers' first baseman doubled off the left-center-field wall, Ober's day was done. Brock Stewart entered and promptly walked Kerry Carpenter, which was not at all intentional, but considering Carpenter has been the Tigers' most consistent hitter for a couple of years now, it may have been a blessing in disguise. Two grounders later, Stewart had cleaned up what mess there was, preserving Ober's line. The Twins' lineup was fairly silent outside of the exploits of their two catchers. They let Flaherty off the hook while he settled into his rhythm, and didn't get a chance at the Tigers' bullpen until the seventh. It appeared that early on, they were attacking pitches early in counts. Later, they tried to work more counts but by then Flaherty's stuff was playing up. Caleb Thielbar made his long-awaited return to start the eighth, and it wasn't pretty. He got Twins killer Matt Vierling to pop out, but then served up a home run to the free-swinging Javier Báez; a sharp grounder that Castro misplayed for a hit; and then another base hit to put the go-ahead run at the plate. Griffin Jax entered and induced a grounder from Mark Canha that Kyle Farmer misplayed into a double, allowing the tying run to score. In a further homage to his 2023 bad-luck struggles, Jax then allowed a bloop hit to Torkelson to score the go-ahead run. The Good: Ober's form is starting to resemble his mid-2023 form, where for a brief moment, he was the Twins' best starter. Jeffers looks well-suited to the two spot in the lineup. I would never have believed that a week ago. Carlos Santana took some good at-bats, walking to start the second-inning rally and lining out sharply to Greene in left. The Bad: Castro took some brutal at-bats today, swinging at balls and looking at strikes. Perhaps his big home run Saturday was much ado about nothing. He also made a key misplay on a sharp grounder (ruled a hit) as the Tigers staged their comeback in the eighth. Thielbar was throwing strikes and his stuff looked fine, but it was certainly not the debut he wanted. What’s Next: Louie Varland (0-2, 9.00 ERA) faces lefty Cole Irvin (0-1, 8.10 ERA) as the Twins look to bounce back against one of the more fungible lefty starters in the AL. The Orioles were a trendy pick to contend for a World Series, but the reality is their lineup, starting rotation and particularly their bullpen, have pretty big holes. They called up number one overall prospect Jackson Holliday last week as they looked to channel some of their 2023 magic. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Bowman 0 0 0 0 0 0 Funderburk 11 0 15 17 0 43 Stewart 13 0 0 19 10 42 Jax 16 0 0 11 18 45 Sands 0 0 0 28 0 28 Jackson 0 0 13 10 0 23 Okert 16 0 0 13 0 29 Thielbar 0 0 0 0 13 13 View full article

After being dinked and dunked to death by the scrappy Guardians, the Minnesota Twins had the bad fortune of facing a team with real hitting talent and a high payroll to boot. While Bailey Ober was very effective, the offense was again (largely) sleepwalking through the game, and this time, the bullpen didn't bail them out. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K (68 Pitches, 43 Strikes, 63.2%) Home Runs: Manuel Margot (1) Bottom 3 WPA: Jay Jackson (-.286), Carlos Correa (-.130), Ryan Jeffers (-.093) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): After a weekend of ruminating about strikeout totals and Bailey Ober tipping his pitches, the Twins had to shake off any lingering doubts about themselves, because the most star-powered roster in baseball rolled into town. The LA Dodgers boast a lineup of three MVPs and future Hall of Famers at the top; perhaps the best all-around catcher in baseball, in Will Smith; the power of Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernández; and some young star potential in James Outman and Gavin Lux, for good measure. Taylor Trammell also plays for them. The Twins turned to Ober, who had just given up eight earned runs to the Royals. They featured a lineup averaging three runs per game in the early going. They started José Miranda at third base, and no one is quite sure why, since Twins officials have publicly labeled Miranda as a first baseman and DH. He didn't look bad, though, taking some good at-bats while not being a factor defensively. The day started disturbingly, as Mookie Betts took a pitch in the zone that was called ball four (that evened out with Betts on the short end of several calls later on). Shohei Ohtani then scorched a double over Byron Buxton's head, and Freddie Freeman hit a sacrifice fly to one of the deepest parts of the park, on which Buxton made an incredible play (more to come on that). Surprisingly, Ober settled down from there, retiring the next two hitters fairly easily, showing a nice changeup and cutter, with his fastball showing a bit of arm-side run. In fact, he retired the next nine hitters following Ohtani's double, with very little hard contact. James Paxton was on the mound for the Dodgers, and looked okay at first. Twins fans might remember the "Big Maple" from his outing in Game One of the 2019 ALDS, in which he briefly gave the Twins hope with a fairly shaky start. Today, he gave up a single to Manuel Margot, who was curiously put in the leadoff spot, and then had Carlos Correa and Ryan Jeffers just miss hittable fastballs before striking out Buxton on an elevated heater. He, too, cruised through the second inning, but he ran into some trouble at a surprising point in the Twins lineup. He walked Austin Martin and then served up a no-doubt home run to Margot, perhaps revitalized by facing the team that gave up on him in favor of Enrique Hernández just a few weeks ago. It was a hanging slider from Paxton that came across as a cutter via Statcast. Regardless, he didn't throw the pitch again. Ober danced around some trouble in the fourth, including two singles and a walk, but looked in control regardless. He used his new cutter much more often than his slider and got a lot of weak contact with it, including striking out Betts with it to end his outing. It's worth noting that Ober had one of his best starts against the Dodgers in LA last year, going six innings and not allowing a run until Michael A. Taylor dropped a fly ball in Ober's final inning. The Twins started letting Paxton off the hook following Margot's home run, making outs early in counts that resulted in some quick innings. Ober also had an efficient outing, but was removed after the fifth at 68 pitches. The reasoning was that lefties Ohtani and Freeman were due up, but my counterpoint is that it doesn't really matter who you throw against those two, as Steven Okert isn't making them adjust their approach or anything. Three soft hits later and the game was tied. It stayed that way for a while, thanks to this catch. The Twins were not able to add on, however, and that is not a sustainable strategy against the Dodgers. Jay Jackson came in to pitch the seventh, and hung two sliders for homers, one to Outman for the lead and then Ohtani for the insurance. The Good: Ober was at his best, locating his pitches and avoiding barrels with his three and a half pitch mix. Buxton made a classic Buxton grab up against the wall in right center in the first. He then made a heady play tagging up to second base in the fourth by reading left fielder Trammell's throw. perfectly It seemed like a normal play but I don't think I've seen it in my 25 years watching baseball. Then he made the aforementioned, even better play as Okert struggled in the sixth. Margot was among the most worried-about of all Twins hitters going into the game. Was he cooked? Maybe not; he is now one of the Twins leaders in OPS. The Bad: Twins Twitter will surely love the decision to pull Ober for Okert to start the sixth. I don't hate the move if it's Caleb Thielbar coming in, but I just don't think a guy we traded out-of-options Nick Gordon for is the matchup you want against Ohtani and Freeman. The righty bats looked a little better, but overall didn't do much against Paxton. The last 18 Twins were retired. The Twins bullpen, which had been the team's saving grace thus far, finally showed some cracks, with Okert and Jackson put into much higher-leverage roles than anyone would have anticipated a month ago. What’s Next: Louie Varland (0-1, 6.75 ERA) goes against the Dodger's third biggest off-season pickup, Tyler Glasnow (2-0, 3.18 ERA). Glasnow is prone to a bad start here or there, but his stuff is electric and could pose a huge problem as the Twins try to get off the mat in the early going. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: THU FRI SAT SUN MON TOT Funderburk 39 0 0 0 13 52 Alcalá 0 0 25 0 0 25 Sands 22 0 0 0 0 22 Jackson 0 0 20 0 22 42 Okert 0 0 0 0 16 16 Jax 0 0 0 0 21 21 Stewart 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

Going for a season-opening sweep in Kansas City for a second straight year, the Twins instead fell behind early and let the mercurial Brady Singer settle into a groove in a blowout loss. Bailey Ober simply didn't have it, and the game was more notable for the debuts of depth pieces Austin Martin, Daniel Duarte, Kody Funderburk and Jay Jackson, as well as the brilliance of Bobby Witt Jr. Image courtesy of © Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports Following a pair of wins in which the Twins were held in check by Royals starting pitchers, only to rally against the underbelly of the Kansas City bullpen, the Twins were up against on-again off-again functional pitcher Brady Singer. Minnesota turned to Bailey Ober in his season debut, coming off of a season in which he was effective, but in which workload concerns caused him to be, for lack of a better term, jerked around a bit. He features a new cutter this year, but it was a hanging change-up (or two, or three) that hurt him today. Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 1 1/3 IP 9 H, 8 ER 1 BB 1 K (55 P, 35 Strikes, 63.6%) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.362), Ryan Jeffers (-.039), Kody Funderburk (-.028) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The game started (and ended) as if a "getaway day loss" was scheduled and circled on a bulletin board. In the first, Edouard Julien was out on one pitch, Alex Kirilloff was called out on two pitches (a pitch clock violation was called before the third), and Byron Buxton grounded out to end it. That would become a theme. Ober was a trending name during Spring Training, his perpetual underratedness having a bit of a Streisand effect on his name in baseball circles. He has been consistent when healthy and has used his elite extension to do things to hitters other pitchers with similar raw arm strength simply can't. Increased velocity and the promise of a hard cutter made him a prime breakout candidate for baseball fans and bettors alike. Well, that's why they play the games. Ober was in the zone in his half of the first, and facing a Royals squad with a lot of free swingers, that hurt him. Bobby Witt Jr., looking to cement his status as an ascendant superstar, tomahawked a high fastball (110 MPH EV) into left field for a single. First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino blooped a single and Salvador Perez, mired in a concerning slump to start the year, got a hanging changeup that his declining bat speed had no problem depositing in the left-field stands. The Twins' gameplan was to be aggressive against Singer, knowing he has struggled to develop a third pitch besides his fastball and slider, and needs to work ahead to be successful. He also has a propensity to be a tad emotional on the mound, so he has always been susceptible to an ambush. That led to a lot of outs early in the count for Twins hitters, who couldn't quite put the barrel on Singer's sinker. Speaking of ambushing a starting pitcher, Ober gave up a second home run on a changeup, this time to light-hitting outfielder Kyle Isbel, in the second, and the fun wouldn't end there. Maikel García homered in the next at-bat on a middle-in fastball, and Witt nearly made it three in a row, settling for an electrifying triple off the wall in right-center. Perez then drove in Witt for the game's sixth run, After an M.J. Melendez double (homer in 11/30 ballparks) Ober's day was done. Funderburk wasn't able to keep things in range, giving up a two-run single to Adam Frazier and bungling a flip from Carlos Santana at first that led to the ninth run of the game. Only then was Austin Martin able to take his first major-league at-bat, which finishes up quite a rollercoaster for him since the start of spring training. First, there was buzz about him making the team out of camp, then the Twins traded for Manuel Margot, pushing Martin back to Triple-A to start the year. One day in, the baseball gods decided to flesh out the Greek tragedy of Royce Lewis's career even further, and Martin got his call-up after all. He made an appearance on Saturday as a pinch-runner, but was lifted for a pinch-hitter when his spot in the lineup came around. Daniel Duarte also made his Twins debut, relieving Funderburk to start the fourth. His slider looked good, and he stayed in the zone, in defiance of his primary weakness in his career thus far. From there, the game was mainly about seeing players make their debuts, and Witt's attempt at a cycle, which looked like a promising campaign after his homer in the third. The Good: Duarte looked pretty good and gave the Twins some needed length. He also struck out Witt on a nice slider as the shortstop was trying to complete the cycle. Matt Wallner got his first hit of the year, a ringing double behind in the count. Kirilloff continues to sting the ball, doubling today after game-altering plate appearances in each of the first two games. Cole Sands got to pitch! That's usually not a good sign for a mop-up guy, but he spent long stretches of 2023 available but not getting into any games. The Bad: Ober wasn't fooling anyone, and his velocity was down just a tick, allowing the Royals to be aggressive and jump all over his fastball and change-up. Julien saw four pitches over his first three at-bats combined. That's likely an aberration, but Ryan Jeffers looks lost at the plate, which might not be. Actually, almost the entire lineup looked like they were ready to jump on a flight. The strike zone was massive, leading to quite a few generous strike calls (maybe Ober could have taken advantage of that..). What’s Next: The Twins are off Monday, and head to Milwaukee for a two-game series against the Brewers starting Tuesday, Louie Varland (5-5, 4.40 ERA in 2023) makes his season debut opposing former Royal Jakob Junis (4-3, 3.87 ERA in 2023). Junis has operated as a swingman for the Giants since leaving Kansas City. He has flashed some effective breaking stuff in his career, but is only in the Milwaukee rotation because of injuries and the departure of Corbin Burnes. Varland, like Ober, had some helium this Spring. Keys for him will be his effectiveness against righties (reverse splits have been an issue) and his ability to limit the home run. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: THU SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Alcala 0 10 0 0 0 10 Duarte 0 0 31 0 0 31 Funderburk 0 0 34 0 0 34 Jackson 0 0 13 0 0 13 Jax 18 12 0 0 0 30 Okert 0 16 0 0 0 16 Sands 0 0 22 0 0 22 Stewart 17 22 0 0 0 39 View full article

The offseason tends to consolidate around narratives. Certain moves seem to scratch the itches of specific analysts, and depending on the volume they project their voice at, the vibes around said team will grow or shrink accordingly. For example, the MLB zeitgeist loved the Yankees acquiring Juan Soto, and hated the Mariners trading Eugenio Suarez. They hate that the Red Sox cut payroll, and loved that the Diamondbacks increased theirs. The true talent level of a team is often hard to see. If an analyst or a network wants a narrative to be true, they will gloss over any potential weakness of a team, and if they are vague enough in their critique, they can argue the opposite of what logic or even anecdotal evidence would deem true. For example, one of the boneheads on Foul Territory loves the Braves bullpen, because it feels like they would have a great bullpen (Its not, and may prove to be a weakness). Giancarlo Stanton had a great spring so it feels like he isn't a negative WAR player anymore. We even had old friend Aaron Gleeman say he likes the top end of the Yankee lineup because they have Judge, Soto and, trying to think of a third he landed on Gleyber Torres, who's a solid player but nothing more. Last year the dicsussion was on if the Yankees should trade Torres, he increased his OPS+ by 5, and now he is the third leg of a new murderers row. Contrary and spicy-brained as I am, here are my picks for the three teams most over-hyped despite evidence to the contrary, and three teams that have been slept on. Keep in mind I was 100% right in questioning the legitimacy of the 2023 Guardians (lucky in '22), Yankees (couldn't hit), Orioles (too cute by half, would fall short in October), Rays (too injured, would fall short in October) and Braves (no depth, would fall short in October). 3 Teams that will surprise: Seattle Mariners The Mariners began the offseason by trading away one of their few sources of power in 2023, Eugenio Suarez, and made little effort to resign Teoscar Hernandez. They supplemented those (high-strikeout) losses with Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, the return of Mitch Haniger and Luke Raley, who quietly became a solid righty-crusher last year in Tampa. Seattle also features the best rotation in the AL, and perhaps in all of baseball. Both George Kirby and Luis Castillo profile as aces, Logan Gilbert would be a solid number two in most rotations, while Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are promising young starters with big stuff who have already flashed success in the majors. I worry a little about their bullpen, as it relies a lot on Andres Munoz to function as expected following the departures of Pat Sewald, Justin Topa and Isaiah Campbell, with dominant setup-man Matt Brash on the shelf with an arm injury. They acquired flame-throwing Gregory Santos from the White Sox, but he too, will start the year on the IL with a lat strain.\ Boston Red Sox Boston always seems to be able to produce hard-hitting lineups, and this year should prove as no exception. Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Trevor Story, and Masitaka Yoshida will anchor the lineup, and if any of Conor Wong, Tyler O’Neill, Cedane Rafaela or Jaren Duran steps forward, they should be able to match up with well with most pitching staffs. The pitching is much more suspect, but the quintet of Bryan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock all have mid-rotation upside or better. Kenley Janssen and Chris Martin are in their late-30’s but still effective in the back of the bullpen. It is surprising to see the Red Sox scale back their payroll to such an extent, but given their boom-or-bust tendencies of recent seasons, I would say they are overdue for an over-performance. San Diego Padres Like the Twins, the Padres were forced to cut payroll due to their TV rights situation. In fact, their games will be broadcast by MLB this year. As a result, Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, Josh Hader, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo are no longer with the team. However, like the Twins, they still boast an impressive core despite the spending cuts. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Ha-Seon Kim and Xander Bogaerts still represent a solid offensive core, while Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove remain a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. If top prospect Jackson Merrill thrives immediately and the team experiences relative health, they should not be underestimated. Last year, despite missing the playoffs, their Pythagorean record was a hearty 92-70. 3 teams that will disappoint: New York Yankees Adding Juan Soto would be a massive upgrade for any team, and the Yankees are no exception. The problem they face is that their core is a year older, their pitching depth is depleted from the Soto trade, and Gerrit Cole will miss at least the first two months of the year with an ominous elbow injury. Outside of Judge and Soto, their lineup is highly suspect. If you believe Giancarlo Stanton has anything left, that Anthony Rizzo will bounce back from a career-threatening head injury or that DJ LeMahieu will provide anything in his age-35 season, the team could still contend for a playoff spot. If you’re sane, you will bet the under. Baltimore Orioles Corbin Burnes was a massive acquisition for an Oriole team that won over 100 games last year. Not mentioned in any of the glowing analysis’ of that trade is that Burnes’ FIP has risen from 1.63 in his Cy Young-winning 2021 season, to 3.14 in 2022, to 3.81 last year. His strikeout rate has plummeted from 35.6% to 25.5% in that time. Behind Burnes is Kyle Bradish, out with an elbow injury, and Grayson Rodriguez is talented but unproven in the third spot. John Means is also battling injury, while stud closer Félix Bautista is out for the year. The lineup has no true stars unless Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschmann both take steps forward, which is no guarantee for young players, even as highly-touted as those two are. Given the talent level of their reinforcements Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg, I envision Baltimore still making the playoffs. But a lot can go wrong with this team. Atlanta Braves I have opined previously that the Braves have no depth, and in fact, the one young player who could have stepped in to the lineup in the event of injury, Vaughn Grissom, was traded for Chris Sale. Their lineup will still be a force, but it simply cannot stay as healthy as 2023, when they resembled the 2022 Guardians in terms of injury luck. They still lack a true shortstop, and left field remains a question with Jared Kelenic having a tumultuous career thus far. I struggle to see the hype in their bullpen, where Raisel Iglesias is a fairly mid-tier closer, and I don’t see how Joe Jimenez and A.J. Minter make up for that. The rotation looks great at the top, but after Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Sale are more question marks, with not much help available on the farm. They will contend, but the Phillies are a more complete team.

Kepler is now the longest tenured Twin, and following a rebound offensively, is entering the final year of his contract. Extending players as they enter their 30's in generally frowned upon in analytic circles, but there is precedent for a talented, yet up-and-down, hitter finding something in the second half of their career. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Max Kepler has been a lot of things in his long tenure as a Twin: A 36-homer leadoff man, smooth defender, and the posterchild for why looking at BABIP to project future performance is better left in 2012. He’s had injuries, stretches of historically poor contact quality, and countless trade rumors. It’s been a ride, and people have certainly had opinions about it. Last year, Kepler reversed a years-long downtrend in performance by saying “Screw it, I’ll just swing harder and live with a few more strikeouts.” As a result, he had the second best year of his career and the Twins picked up his 2024 club option. They also traded his draft-mate from 2009, Jorge Polanco to the Mariners (where playing second base is like being a drummer for Spinal Tap). It appears that Kepler will play out the final year of his contract with the Twins, which is good news, because unlike in mid-2023, they don’t have anyone to replace him (unless you still believe in Trevor Larnach). A lot of Twins fans have been done with Kepler for years now, but given his unique career arc and the team’s flimsier than expected outfield depth, it may make sense to extend him, rather than watch him leave in free agency following this year. Here’s why. As Kepler enters his age 31 season, I wondered if there are any other players with similar trajectories in their careers. Someone who started solid enough, peaked to a point they got MVP votes, then leveled off before finding something at age 30. That got me thinking about Adrian Beltre, newly enshrined first-ballot Hall of Famer. Stay with me here. They play different positions and hit from different sides, but let’s remember who Beltre was through his first decade or so in the majors. He got to the major leagues as an uber prospect, debuting at the age of 19 for a much more dysfunctional Dodgers team than we are used to these days. He acclimated himself well at the start, posting a 102 OPS+ in his first full season at age 20. Baseball fans love players who can’t legally drink but can post league average numbers- Imagine what they can do once they fill out and learn the league! Well, Beltre didn’t really take off from there, producing four middling seasons leading up to his walk year in 2004. He busted out that year, hitting 48 home runs, playing stellar defense and finishing second in the MVP voting to perhaps the greatest hitting season of Barry Bonds’ (or anyone’s) career. There it was! The talent that lay dormant for so long was finally translating to impact production. He secured a big contract from the Seattle Mariners… and then resumed being a roughly league-average hitter with good defense. I don’t have to tell you how Max Keplery that is. In fact, through their age 30 seasons, Beltre had produced a 105 OPS+ for his career, while Kepler is at 104. The lows were lower for Kepler, and the highs were higher for Beltre, but the overall career arc is fairly similar. Neither struck out a lot, both played through injuries that sometimes sapped their performance, and both were revered as strong, yet somewhat odd, clubhouse presences. Had Beltre continued to produce as he had in LA and Seattle, he would have fallen off the HOF ballot by now. But starting with a one year stop in Boston (which prompted agent Scott Boras to invent the term “pillow contract”), Beltre found a sweet spot in performance that didn’t quite reach his 2004 breakout peak, but was far more productive than his other years to that point. From that point forward, he hit for a 133 OPS+, played in a World Series, went viral countless times for his humorous exchanges with friend/nemesis Elvis Andrus, and waltzed into the Hall of Fame. No one is predicting that for Kepler, but then again no one was counting on sustained dominance from Beltre 13 years ago, either. What if Max has figured something out and his 124 OPS+ from 2023 is repeatable? My guess is that Kepler felt that the Twins’ brass were fed up with him in June of last year and that shook him up. He stopped caring about avoiding strikeouts, or taking walks, and became more process-oriented. He had the highest strikeout percentage of his career, and his lowest walk rate since 2017. Whatever the catalyst was, it worked, as his OPS the final three months was .840, 1.008, and .851. His Baseball Savant page was even more encouraging. Ask any Red Sox fan (or executive) and they will tell you that not keeping Beltre after his 2010 re-emergence was a huge regret. Losing Polanco removes a ton of continuity from the clubhouse, so keeping Kepler around on an extension would make sense on a corporate level (as well as a human one). If he goes back to hitting for the league average and neither Emmanuel Rodríguez or Walker Jenkins displace him immediately, you just bank on the clubhouse pluses and the worry-free defense. Judging by the Twins’ inability to trade him the past three-to-four offseasons, he may not even cost that much to retain. It all depends on how you project him going forward. His top Baseball-reference.com comparable is Colby Rasmus, a soft-spoken former top ten global prospect who performed in fits and starts throughout his career and was out of the league following his age 31 season. He did make a few postseason memories. Another comp further down is Darrell Evans, who followed Beltre’s exact career path of immediately being decent, being great for one year, flatlining, and then being a top 20 hitter in baseball for six years (123 OPS+ after age 35). Which camp will Kepler fall into? There’s a very fine line as a 30-year-old position player between being a candidate for a three year, 45M contract, or a four year 80M one. I suspect the Twins would consider the former but scoff at the latter, and I would agree. Kepler is a guy who falls out of whack a lot at the plate, but usually figures it out somewhere along the line. He’ll end up with 20 home runs, an OPS below his talent level, and the sort of defense that, while not electrifying, acts as a security blanket preventing other outfield options from navigating right field at the Targe. That’s a solid investment at 15M annually. Additionally, the Twins surest things after him are Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner in the outfield, and there are contact-related questions for outfield prospects Rodríguez (too little) and the newly acquired Gabriel González (too much). The Twins brass are having these discussions. If Kepler departs after this year, they will likely be in the market for a corner outfielder who can hit and defend, especially if Wallner can’t legitimize his 2023 breakout. Another angle is that If Kepler produces another 120 OPS+ in 2024, he may receive a qualifying offer, which would depress his market elsewhere, or even lead to him accepting and returning for 2025 at a roughly 20M salary. That may be the Goldilocks scenario, as Rodríguez, González and Jenkins should all be in play for the 2026 season. To be sure, the overwhelming odds are that Kepler will play out this last year with the Twins and become a free agent. Mid-market teams like the Twins, especially ones with analytic-leaning front offices, don't often extend players of his type. Indeed, it would have been ludicrous at the All-Star break to even have this conversation. But Kepler pivoted at that point, and the Twins front office has shown they're capable of pivoting too. If they believed enough to keep starting Kepler through mid-2023, perhaps they can believe enough to believe that his late 2023 wasn't a mirage. Maybe Kepler's journey with the Twins doesn't need to end just yet. What do you think? Would you sign up for three to four more years of Kepler, or roll the dice with the Twins’ minor-league outfielders and Wallner? View full article

The Twins front office is looking to trade hitters for pitchers this offseason. But do they really have a hitting surplus? If not, and if trades are made, their competitive window could close quicker than one might think. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Good teams are hard to sustain in baseball. The Padres, for instance, got to the NLCS in 2022 and added Xander Bogaerts, got Fernando Tatis Jr. back from suspension, and missed the playoffs entirely in 2023. You just never know what a new season will bring. The Twins were one of the best teams in the American League in the second half of 2023, and actually did a little something in the playoffs. They have an ace, a lineup star and a fearsome closer. Well, so did the Padres. Having the three biggest boxes of a contending team's checklist filled doesn’t guarantee success, especially if some items further down the list are neglected. With little payroll flexibility (given the Twins' uncertain TV rights situation), the front office has indicated that they will try to beef up the roster via trading position players for pitching. They would sit at roughly $120 million in payroll if the season started today, leaving them with a maximum of $20 million in space for upgrades--and a minimum of zilch. There is a reason that payroll levels correlate strongly to year-over-year winning: free agents only cost money, not prospect capital. The Dodgers adding Shohei Ohtani is pure added value for a team with an already-strong farm system. They'll give up a couple of non-premium draft picks and the right to spend some money in the international free-agent market, but those are negligible losses compared to the gain of Ohtani. Teams like the Guardians and Twins (at least this year) need to "win" trades in order to improve without spending money on free agents. The Twins could, like last year with Gio Urshela, trade an expensive player for a low-minors prospect. That appears to be the goal with Christian Vazquez and Kyle Farmer. But if one or both of those players are traded, and a $15-million-per-year pitcher is signed on a one-year deal, that pitcher has to equal the 2-3 WAR lost by subtracting those veterans, which is no easy feat at that price point. For instance, former Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty has accumulated 1.4 bWAR total over the last four years, and just signed for $14 million with the Tigers. A reclamation project like Frankie Montas or Hyun-Jin Ryu might be the only other worthwhile options within the Twins' budget, and even they (projected to get $12-18 million or so on a one-year deal) could stretch the payroll to its limit. While I would be inclined to make a bid for one of those former stars, historically, one would expect the Twins to trade some of their hitters for pitching; it's what they do. But trading hitters for pitchers is nothing like the inverse. Trading starting pitching means you are down a starter. You either replace him, or live with the consequences. Trading from the position player pool means assuming greater risk. The Twins don’t have superstars up and down the lineup; many of their guys are platoon or mix-and-match options. In order for the lineup to click, the group has to work as a unit and truly buy in to whatever hitting philosophy the team chooses to use. It’s like trading for James Harden in basketball. He might be a Hall of Famer given his ability to score, but if he doesn’t gel with Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Joel Embiid, Paul George, et al, your team got worse, in addition to losing the young players and draft picks it took to acquire him. Further, let’s be clear: In order to take another step forward next year, the lineup needs to get better, not just hold their level. And if you’re talking about non-tangible value, trading one or both of Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco certainly seems like a risky bet, given their tenure and respect in the clubhouse. On the other hand, perhaps trading one or both of them allows for greater lineup flexibility while one of Brooks Lee and Austin Martin bursts onto the scene and takes the lineup to another level themselves. Maybe José Miranda or Trevor Larnach takes advantage of an opportunity that wouldn’t have been there, had the vets stayed in Minnesota. Still, if they are going to trade position players, they have to get this right, even if it is impossible to know which players it is best to buy or sell high on from an analytical or scouting perspective. Tyler Mahle, for instance, was an excellent target, given his track record and untapped potential pitching in Great American Ballpark. But that trade was a disaster, and so was the Jorge López one. Imagine the trade capital the Twins would have to work with this offseason, if Cade Povich could be a rotation option in 2024, or if Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were in position to compete with Lee and Martin for playing time behind Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Alex Kirilloff. They would almost have to make a trade just to give some guys an opportunity. A team is always two injuries away from having to lean heavily on depth. We saw with Cleveland last year what can happen when a team goes from the 99th percentile in the injury luck department to the 50th. If Lee and Kepler are flipped to the Mariners for one of their young starters, for instance, think about how tenuous the situation could be if Polanco, Lewis or Julien miss time. Martin or Nick Gordon are playing everyday at second base, Miranda is at third, and you’re praying a Yunior Severino/Kirilloff platoon is working out at first base. In this scenario, you’re also relying on an outfield of Matt Wallner, Larnach and Byron Buxton/Willi Castro. Do we know yet whether Wallner can hit quality pitching? Was 2023 a career year for Castro? Will Larnach improve against offspeed pitches? Will Buxton (fill in the blank)? I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but the outfield cupboard is pretty bare beyond those guys, unless Emmanuel Rodriguez really forces the issue and solves all of his contact issues in Double A. If Michael Helman and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. are getting meaningful at-bats in a pennant chase, you may really regret trading Kepler. We were spoiled as fans last year, because for every injury sustained, there was a high-ceiling prospect ready to take over (Lewis, Julien, Wallner). That likely will not be the case in 2024 if the team makes a trade for a playoff-caliber starter. Things can flip quickly in baseball. Consider the 2022 White Sox, coming off an easy division win and with every position on the diamond (except second base) occupied by stars. They didn’t even know Dylan Cease would break out that year. Yet, over 2,000 plate appearances ended up going to Josh Harrison, Gavin Sheets, Leury García, Adam Engel, Seby Zavala, Elvis Andrus, Romy González, Danny Mendick and Lenyn Sosa. That was enough to torpedo their season. Something needs to be done on the pitching side, too. Pitchers get injured, and once you pass Louie Varland down the starter pecking order, you get the mid-rotation upside of David Festa and then a lot of guys with underwhelming stuff. There is a misconception that this team just opened its competitive window. They didn’t. It opened in 2019. They've just had a couple unlucky and/or poorly planned years during that period, and are, arguably, approaching the closing of that window as their arbitration guys get more expensive and the talent at the top of the minor-league system dries up. The Twins front office likely takes a different view, seeing Rodríguez, Festa, Marco Raya and Walker Jenkins as the next wave of impact prospects to supplement a contending core. I'm not so sure. Bad trades like the Mahle and López ones can be shrugged off with the success of 2023, but those chickens will come home to roost at some point. Perhaps Chris Paddack, a healthy Carlos Correa and someone like Severino can paper over some of that, but if the front office thinks they can thread the needle of improving the 2024 club via trade without compromising 2025 and 2026, we all better hope they’re right. View full article

The Detroit Tigers have been waiting on the fruits of their rebuild. Few of their young players have smoothly launched into stardom, but the talent remains there. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson have shown flashes of brilliance, more blue-chip prospects are on the way, and the new front office led by Scott Harris has some payroll flexibility. Could they put a scare into the Twins next season? Image courtesy of © David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports. The Tigers have been a bit of a punchline for a few years, now. Last season’s .481 winning percentage their best since 2016. Despite that improvement, they never threatened the Twins in the American League Central, despite leapfrogging the Guardians to finish in second place, nine games behind Minnesota. They did win the season series against the Twins, however, going 8-5 behind some opportunistic hitting, baffling starting pitching and a lock-down bullpen. There's an episode of Seinfeld where Jerry discovers that his heavyset nemesis, Newman, once dated the woman Jerry was currently seeing. Not only that, Newman was the one to break up with her. "What could she see in Newman?" Jerry asks. "Perhaps there is more to Newman than meets the eye," offers Elaine. "There's less," is Jerry's retort. But Newman holds a steady job, is a talented poet, has many friends and dislikes Jerry Seinfeld. What's so bad about that? Maybe that's Detroit Tigers baseball. There are multiple reasons why they finished six games under .500 last year, but the biggest was a lackluster offense. The campaign saw them post 4.08 runs per game, 25th in the majors. Still, it was an improvement on 2022, when they finished a distant 30th, with 3.55 runs per game. That number should continue to trend upward. Their best hitter, 23-year-old Riley Greene, had some injuries, but he still posted a 117 OPS+, showing a dynamic combination of power, speed, batting average and playable center-field defense. He strikes out a lot and has had his share of injuries, but he seems likely to torment Central division pitching for years to come. They also have former No. 1 overall pick, 24-year-old Spencer Torkelson, slowly learning the league and becoming (if not the next Mark Teixeira, as some projected) a decent hitter with power and upside beyond what he has shown. He did hit 31 home runs while playing his home games at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Then there's scrap-heap find Kerry Carpenter, who has a handsome 121 OPS+ his first two years in the majors. He doesn’t offer much defensively and can be streaky at the plate, but his overall body of work points to him being a good five-hole hitter for the foreseeable future. Detroit's catcher is Jake Rogers, who represents the last chance for Detroit to get anything out of the Justin Verlander trade to Houston six years ago. Fortunately for Detroit, Rogers started to produce in 2023, with 21 home runs, a .224 ISO, decreasing (though still high) strikeout numbers and a solid defensive reputation, at age 28. Colt Keith, the Tigers' fifth-round pick in 2020, has blossomed into a top-20 global prospect despite questionable defense. Some scouts grade his power as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he has hit over .300 in each of his minor-league years. He would figure to debut sometime in 2024. Meanwhile, Rangers rookie and playoff hero Josh Jung happens to have a little brother, Jace, in the Tigers system. The younger Jung projects as a plus offensive second baseman after being drafted 12th overall in 2022 out of Texas Tech, and he also figures to get a chance very soon. Then there is Javy Baez, who has no idea what he's doing at the plate anymore, but is always a threat to figure it out at any moment. To be clear, this doesn't constitute an amazing lineup, but their ballpark will always suppress counting stats and (as a group) they certainly look more promising than the Royals, White Sox and Guardians. The pitching is intriguing, as well. Jason Foley is lockdown at the back end of the bullpen, with a 98-MPH turbo sinker he can command, while Alex Lange is pretty unhittable (despite frequent bouts of wildness). Tyler Holton has been nails as a late-inning lefty who can get six or seven outs, which Twins hitters are certainly aware of (against the Twins he pitched 11 ⅔ innings, allowing one run and striking out 16). On the starting side, lefty Tarik Skubal returned from injury to post a 2.00 FIP in 15 starts, and righty Reese Olson quietly had an excellent rookie year, holding opponents to a .215 batting average with strong peripherals over 103 innings. Former first overall pick (yes, they've got two of them, just like the Twins) Casey Mize is coming back from Tommy John surgery; Matt Manning has shown flashes; and they have top prospects Wilmer Flores and Jackson Jobe waiting in the wings. In other words, Kenta Maeda may have been the perfect signing for Detroit. If healthy, he stabilizes the middle of their rotation, and if he misses time, it opens up opportunities for some of their young pitching. They also have an excellent manager, though how much of A.J. Hinch's success was due to the Astros' cheating scandal is unknowable. But he clearly knows how to get his guys to play hard, and in particular, how to attack the Twins on both sides of the ball. The other potential contender in the Central, the Cleveland Guardians, have arguably the best pitching rotation in the division but remain short on hitting as they pray for the immediate emergence of Kyle Manzardo and Chase DeLauter. And they no longer have the steady hand of Tito Francona piloting the ship. Winning the Draft Lottery was a nice bit of news for them, but it's likely to pay dividends in a few years, rather than immediately. The same can probably be said of Manzardo and DeLauter. The White Sox are claiming they are in a "retool" mode, rather than undergoing a full rebuild. But whatever they call it, they don't have enough talent to compete at the top of the division, and are allegedly dangling their only good pitcher in Dylan Cease. The Royals have Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino Salvador Perez, and a shrug where their farm system should be. Meanwhile, while the Baez contract is a regrettable one, the Tigers no longer have to rely on him to anchor the lineup. That responsibility now falls to Torkelson, Greene, and Carpenter, with Jung, Keith, Parker Meadows and Justyn Henry-Malloy all percolating at the top levels of their minor-league system. And with Miguel Cabrera no longer commanding 20 percent of their payroll, a Teoscar Hernandez-type signing would not be out of the question. They may even be a sleeper team for Cody Bellinger. Cleveland and the Twins, with more uncertain payroll situations, can only dream of that type of free-agent pickup. When competitive, the Tigers have shown they can be aggressive with big-name free agents, and even in the darkest doldrums of their recent dark ages, they spent $217 million on Báez and Eduardo Rodríguez. They currently have only $75.1 million committed to their 2024 payroll, after spending $122 million last year, but have spent nearly $200 million as recently as 2017. Part of that spending spree was related to owner Mike Ilitch's failing health, but they also drew more than 3 million fans per year in those days. I could see the Tigers getting to 85 wins next year, even without everything breaking right for them. The Twins should have no problem eclipsing that mark on paper, but injuries and regression could make this a race. What do you think? Are the Tigers a team on the rise, or is Cleveland still the main rival for the Twins in the Central? Sound off in the comments. View full article