Doctor Gast
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Everything posted by Doctor Gast
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Very happy with Larnach adjusting, I'm not sure if he has more upside & could use better defense in LF. After Lewis's knee surgeries, fighting soft-tissue side effects, & now fatigue. I'm optimistic that he'll keep on getting better every year. The same way I am with Miranda, Being settled at 1B will do wonders for his health & production. Wallner has improved in the OF & has adjusted but still could improve in his adjusting. I'm encouraged by our rookies from last year, together with the new promising rookies coming up. And most of all no Margot! I have no hope for Julien that he could help the Twins defensively or offensively. Hope they don't drag him along like they did with Margot. Trade him while you can.
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Boston has to get someone at 3B to move Devers off there. BOS is very high on Casas so they are more apt to move their DH instead but they do need a lot of help at SP & catching (Lopez & Vazquez could really impact them) so they could do it. After BOS moved Teel there's no one big on the BOS team I'd really want. Just like Lopez & Vazquez positively impacting BOS, the loss of them for the Twins will have a greater negative impact that can't be replaced. I really like your idea about using a larger positive surplus value to offset negative surplus value. Twins who are very deep in pitching still find value in Dobnak, then the Rox who had been at the bottom of pitching depth can find more value in Dobnak. ROX still thinks they are a competing team & they have a ton of holes. Their biggest hole is catching if we trade Jeffers with other players that help fill some of their holes plus basically throwing in Dobnak for free using trading surplus capital for MLB-ready Drew Romo & soon-to-be to be elite catcher Cole Carrigg. Savings of $7.7M. Then we can trade Paddack to BOS for Romy Gonzalez (1B/utility) + $2M that's $9.5M savings. OK BOS wouldn't want to pay the $2M & rather use a low prospect instead but that's still $7.5M savings. 7.7 + 7.5 = $15.2M using only non-core replaceable players. That more than balances the budget plus takes care of a couple of needs. All we need to do is trade for high-leverage LHRP Nardi & then we are set to compete for the Central. Which I never felt that we could last season.
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I've hated the fruitless articles of trading our core players. CLE does a lot of things right but dumping their key core players is not one of them. On this point, I don't want to mimic them. Correa is the heart of this core that broke the winless postseason games. After we signed Lopez our winning window was opened. We have a great core & farm system to keep this window open for a while. We have to keep the magic from that core together as much as possible the more we compromise the core the more we lose the magic, last season was a taste of that. If we can't win it's not the core's fault where we need to shake things up, changes would be needed elsewhere.
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Miranda isn't a rookie fresh from AAA that we have to be patient with. He's got the bat that needs the opportunity to be healthy from his '23 shoulder injury by playing 1B not manning 3B. We have been too patient with Julien at 2B & now reinventing himself as hitter won't profile as a 1B & needs to be traded now. Miranda hits better against RHPs, Julien hits much better against RHPs & Wade hits better against RHPs. There is no advantage in getting Wade. Choosing Cave over Wade all those years & trading him was a big mistake, Choosing Wade over Miranda overall would be another one. Polanco here at 1B would be great in the clubhouse and on the field. No doubt Polanco can quickly adapt to 1B & give him time to finally heal too. I believe there a few teams in on Polanco even with needs at 3B. So until FO trims the fat w/o compromising the core & have a few millions to boot. Until I see it, I can't believe that they can intelligently do that. Until that happens we can't think about FA because we can't afford even a Polanco. Then we'll have to settle for Miranda which is much better than trading away a much needed core player to afford an expensive Gallo all or nothing type loser, hoping they'll bounce back.
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Exactly, I get excited in what theyn can do but you have to keep them on the mound.
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What's Left at First Base in Free Agency?
Doctor Gast replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'll state again a 1B target to platoon (not replace) with Miranda, Romy Gonzales (BOS), He just mashes LHPs, great at PHing, a very solid glove that can platoon anywhere on the INF or OF (when not needed at 1B), he's very cheap to obtain (BTV 1.3 surplus trade value) & cheap 4yrs availability.- 81 replies
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None of these pitchers will have a shot in '25, except Prielipp. & he'll make it only as a RP. Like Duran his only shot is at RP, his starting days are over. But that's not bad.
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I didn't see much fanfare, so I thought this was just another hyped-up podcast, but I guess it wasn't. I haven't checked it out yet. I'm surprised that MIA didn't wait until Luzardo was able to put up better #s at the deadline. Hurry up & nab Nardi
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What's Left at First Base in Free Agency?
Doctor Gast replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Because the league has the book on "all-or-nothing" hitters, almost everybody was hurting at 1B. so 1Bmen are going to be expensive even in trade. I was very surprised at Santana's $12M. We have no choice (if we really had before) but to stick with Miranda.- 81 replies
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What's Left at First Base in Free Agency?
Doctor Gast replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Last offseason was absolutely awful but this offseason is unbearable. Our greatest concern should be up the middle, SS is good, CF is good, if we take Julien out of the equation at 2B we are good. Catcher, we are sitting in the middle of the pack at best. Twins want to trade Vazquez that'll put us in the bottom of the barrel, so we pick up an inferior back up for $5M. You put that together with $5M that we'll have to eat when we trade him coming a grand total of zero savings. In contrast, losing a very good defensive catcher who knows & works together well with our pitchers for someone who is inferior defensively & don't know our pitchers. Sorry to say but before we even think about FA, we have to think about how we are going to bring payroll down to the target goal. All of TD articles should be on how we can meet budget. With everybody filling out their rotation, here we are with Paddack still on our roster, he should have been moved at the Winter meetings. All of us especially FO have to use our creativity to move Dobnak, there's a good market for Paddack & Jeffers, get it done. If we sit around & wait. very quickly any doors will be closed. Then FO will go to plan A, which is to trade Correa, Lopez, Castro, Ryan or Ober so we can afford going to FA to sign Santana. The main offseason goal shouldn't be meeting budget or shopping FA . It's getting better. Trading Correa, Lopez, Castro, Ryan or Ober doesn't make us better. These guys are core players at key positional depth. How does removing any of these core guys so we can sign an expensive non non-premium 1Bman make us better? We need to figure out how to meet budget & still get better. By signing Santana last offseason made us better this offseason? By signing Santana or a more inferior 1B FA this offseason will make us better next offseason? Fangraph has projected Santana at 1.1 WAR after his career season. They have projected Miranda at 1.5 WAR after a disappointing season. Santana is on his downside, Miranda is on his upside. Santana is expensive, Miranda is very cheap. Sign Santana & it's another lost year for Miranda. Do the math who should we stick with? Any holes we have can be easily filled by trades. I can see the scenario now. Twins push the "We have to have Santana" narrative. After months of sitting & waiting they'll declare we can't move Dobnak, Paddack, & Vazquez so we have to trade Castro. That's not enough, we still need to clear more salary to meet budget & we have to have Santana & maybe another RH OF bat. So we'll have to trade Lopez. Then comes "Darn Pohlads & their budget, it's all their fault". Just to let you know I'm not a Pohlad fan.- 81 replies
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We have to look at underlying conditions. Lee is a rookie & had some back problems, It's a matter of getting acclimated to MLB, which he will. I can also put Martin & Keirsey in that boat, w/o Margot in the equation I expect Martin & Keirsey to be used correctly & more time acclimating to MLB they will shine. Defensively Lee is ready for MLB but as Bean stated he needs time in AAA to work on his swing. It's been a long time since Lewis has put in anything resembling a full season. He ran out of gas. Eventually he'll get his stamina back & rake. Julien, is it just a sophomore slump? His defense has always been bad at 2B no matter how much you spin stats. The league has taken away his & many others' HR advantage. It'll take more than a slight adjustment to solve his problem. He'll have to reinvent himself. IF he can make the transformation, he'll no longer profile at 1B, Last season was the best time to trade him but he still has some hyped value, trade him now.
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- edouard julien
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3 Twins In "No Man's Land" Headed Into 2025
Doctor Gast replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Our problem isn't the budget crunch it's not making the needed trade, The root word in Chinese for opportunity is crises. This budget crunch should become an opportunity. By learning not to be so dependent on FA, which can make us into a better team for one thing looking to deserving in-house players over expensive inferior outsiders. Miranda & Alcala both were coming off rehabbing from previous injuries. IMO both were managed incorrectly which led to their poor performance. Hopefully, both will be managed better & both will produce very desirable results. Alcala sticks to 1 inning & nonrepeating outings until he shows he's strong enough to do more. Miranda settled into 1B to improve his glove while mashing. Julien has no such excuse. W/o Correa to cover for him Julen isn't passable at 2B. The league has taken away his HR advantage. IF he adjusts he won't be the same & no longer has the bat to stick at 1B. He's a liability both defensively & offensively, trade him.- 37 replies
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This seems to be the most critical point as far as pitching mechanics go.
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The front office, lead by Levine who ran contract negotiations while he was here, were in contact with Buxton trying to get things done the entire time. Plenty of articles about this all. Your opinion doesn't seem to be based on very accurate information. I never said that Buxton said he didn't want to be here. Why do you continue to put lies in my mouth. I said that it was common knowledge on social media. I don't give much credence to social media but when nothing is being made public you wonder. You said it was common knowledge that Buxton really wanted to stay in MN all along. Twins Daily Analyst Nick Nelson had an article "What the Hell Are the Twins Doing With Byron Buxton? 11/16/21. Where he quotes Dan Hayes & Ken Rosenthal that Buxton's time in MN was in limbo & Twins were gauging trades, He later reported that Jim Pohlad was reluctant to move Buxton. Nick was expressing a lot of confusion with a lot of conflicting info. One possibility he stated was that Buxton didn't want to stay in MN because of being screwed in '18. he wanted to move to the South and or he wanted to test the FA waters. If it was common knowledge that Buxton really wanted to stay in MN all along, why did Nick mention him leaving as a possibility? You said that it took 4yrs to extend Buxton, if FO really wanted to extend Buxton why did it take so long? When Buxton's requests were finally made public, we could see that they were very team-friendly so this brings up again the question why did it takes so long? I never refuted that FO & Buxton were in contact throughout this period but how serious were they? That is my point. You say you have a lot of proof but it has nothing to do with what I said. If you put into context what I really said you can go back to any social media site you can confirm what I said to be true on what was being said. You just trying to discredit me. There were opinions that I gave & I stated them as opinion which I hope everyone here has the right to do & they should be taken with a grain of salt
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Years have passed & people forget but at the time as I said it was all over social media & it became commonly accepted, that Buxton didn't want to stay because they screwed him over & that he wanted to test the waters (it was a lie that somebody started) as I said it was a shock to many (including myself who clamored for Buxton) that Buxton really wanted to stay when negotiations seriously started. People conveniently forget what they don't want to remember. Where is your accurate information that prior to actual serious negotiations that it was common knowledge that Buxton wanted to stay that you are basing your opinion on. There was a lot of doubt because what should have taken a short time if both parties were interested to complete the extension, instead took over a year. So if Buxton was very interested in signing why did it take so long? & FO were so interested in extending Buxton why did they balk at a no-trade deal? That is what is confusing to me.
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IMO Falvey didn't want to extend Buxton. According to social media, Buxton didn't want to stay, so that was holding up the extension process. Twins got a ton of offers on Buxton & he was good as gone. Pohlads had to step in & say sign him. & low & behold Buxton really wanted to stay in MN. Falvey ended up extending him to what appeared to me for more than he was asking for. Throwing big money I meant overspending for the player whether big or small. Yet quite often striking out on many big names. Which is fine with me. but that's not to say that he doesn't like to go out there with the big boys. And I agree that extending players at this point is not wise.
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I'm really bad as far as commenting on mechanics, especially concerning pitching. This podcast, was interesting and I tend to agree with the author. Just curious what others thought. I also thought the comments were interesting.
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Ditto. What I didn't understand when Kepler came up was why didn't they put Kepler (who was the better fielder) in LF & Rosario (who had the better arm) in RF. Didn't they have analytics to figure that out? IMO it'd have better optics for Rosario to where he'd could stay longer with the Twins. Kepler didn't think he could justify playing CF but Seth told me once that he considered himself as a LFer.
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I'm a Kepler fan but I think it's strange that Kepler's last offseason was coming off a good season with a $10M price tag. With many teams that could have use his services including the Phillies. Falvey was crying that his hands were tied because of the budget. IMO it'd have been easy to unload his salary so why didn't they?
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I'm a big anti-FA fan. It makes much more sense to extend key players who want to be here & be part of what's going on. Instead of letting them go & going out & paying big bucks to sign an expensive FA that might not even want to be here. But Falvey loves to be courted by FOs who are drooling over our players. What he probably likes even more is courting FAs & throwing big money at them. So he's not big in extending players.

