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tony&rodney

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Everything posted by tony&rodney

  1. tony&rodney
    Catcher? None have high floors. Shortstop? Kaelen Culpepper could stick as could Danny De Andrade. The sleeper here is slightly improbable but should not be counted out - Brandon Winokur. There are questions at these two positions, no doubt. This is why i proposed, in the past, that the Twins go hard after Jeferson Quero of Milwaukee (cost ? B. Lee) and Jordan Lawler of Arizona (cost ? J. Duran and one of J. Miranda or E. Julien). However, I don't think the Snakes or Brewers oblige.
  2. tony&rodney
    I'm pretty bullish on the Twins actually. I rather like their pitching. The only wish for me was that the front office would be willing to go a bit overboard on a couple of gambles for young players who are capable of filling an organizational weakness. Neither players may even be available but I would overpay for both. The current top prospects are very close to earning lineup slots. Jenkins may be a year away, but I'm hoping big time to see some success from Emmanuel, Luke, and Payton this year. The farm system may clock in among the middle third in MLB but there are players itching to show their stuff. Let it be.
  3. tony&rodney
    The key point on any additions should hinge on whether the new guy is better than the guy being replaced or pushed down. I'm struggling to come up with free agent starting pitchers or position players beyond a big ticket and that isn't realistic. A relief pitcher is possible. Does Yates sign to be a set up reliever?
  4. tony&rodney
    The LH/RH bat depends on the severity of the splits and whether the Twins brain trust will allow a LH bat to play every day. Emmanuel Rodriguez (like the honey badger) - he don't care. I think Basallo is a possible minor version of Yordan Alvarez. Mayo (future) and Westburg (now) are really good but they each strike out quite a bit. Seems like the K's need to be watched as closely as the LH bats. FWIW, Larnach and Wallner may be ready to face LH pitchers too. I think the Twins must give that a long trial run because (discussed much) the past strategy has hurt as much as helped. Kjerstad is going to be really good (IMO) but he overflows the bucket already present (Larnach, Wallner, Keisey Jr., Rodriguez, Jenkins), so I agree the interest won't be there from the Twins side.
  5. tony&rodney
    We sure have to be impressed with how dedicated and hard working Brent Rooker has been in his pursuit of a baseball career. This is especially noteworthy in his ability to handle repeated failure and the lack of belief from separate organizations. The rebound to his current standing is laudable. I'm impressed.
  6. tony&rodney
    The concussions suffered by Morneau and Mauer were both very serious. I was relieved that both were able to retire without further complications (thus far) which would have compromised their personal lives. Once upon a time, people were near ridiculous in their ignorance of concussions and brain injuries. I'm not sure everyone, even now, understands how serious these are for an individual. Athletes tried to play on and saw their careers end, usually on a poor note. Professional athletes were mostly paid peanuts until the 1980s and it was understandable why a person would try to continue their careers. I don't believe either of the M & M boys wanted to retire but they lived the effects of concussions and understood rational thinking made the decision inevitable.
  7. tony&rodney
    Cease is good but a rental, so Baltimore will not give up either Mayo or Basallo for him ..... or at least I would not do that deal. Lopez is real steady and signed for three years, which is why he has people calling and the Twins holding him.
  8. tony&rodney
    Julien has a pretty severe upper cut swing. Still, the fall last year and subsequent relegation to virtual non-entity was surprising in its totality. There must be a couple of thoughts on Julien. One could be that he needs another setting via trade, a fresh start. Another could be that the winter off to reset and adjust returns Julien to relevance. Despite the flack Julien took on Twins Daily, he was a key player in the second half of the 2023 season. I would think there are teams hoping to acquire Eddie for a song.
  9. tony&rodney
    Baltimore and Boston have often been cited as a potential trade partner when Pablo Lopez's name was put up. I don't think the Twins are going to trade Lopez unless the return makes a difference. Boston has mostly closed their needs and wouldn't trade Duran for Lopez anyways, plus one of the other interesting names (Teel) already went to Chicago. The Orioles are not getting a Pablo Lopez for anything less than Mayo or Basallo plus. Baltimore's best shot, if they were really serious would be to get the Twins to include a good MLB player (Castro, Larnach, or Miranda) and a prospect like C. J. Culpepper with Pablo Lopez in return for both Basallo and Mayo. The Orioles say no because they do not want to give up their best prospects. Mayo could be good but is slow and his glove needs work. He also K's quite a bit. Great power if he hits the ball. Basallo will be a really good bat but may not have a position. Easy to see why he is considered untouchable. A top prospect has to be able to do more than one thing to be a franchise untouchable. Holliday fits the criteria as do Dylan Crews, Walker Jenkins, Roman Anthony, and Max Clark. Again, Pablo Lopez has a ton of value right now.
  10. tony&rodney
    For sure, all of the above, especially the last paragraph. The Twins are playing cards and have a decent hand for now and potentially an even better one in the future. They can play the pat hand or take a few gambles. It is totally their choice. What belief does the front office have in specific players and are they willing to make a few deals that are really gambles? Only Falvey & Sons will know where this is headed, but there are opportunities and I have no idea where this team is headed. If I had to guess I think they stand pat. We know that the team would like to wait and see how all of Eeles, Keaschall, and Rodriguez perform in AAA in April and May, but if the talent looks like it can play sooner there may be options to add via deals.
  11. tony&rodney
    So much has changed in baseball. Scouting was so difficult and haphazard. Everyone did the best they could but we cannot compare anything from those times to now (you did not). Imagine the changes in running a team from then to now. MLB teams have 250-400+ employees now. Times have changed. Fun to look over this information. Thank you.
  12. tony&rodney
    So that means 91% of the top three picks made MLB. Considering all of the things that can go wrong, I would say a top five pick is generally a good bet. Baseball is tough. Each year quite a few NFL and NBA draft choices wind up starting for their teams. Very few baseball players go from high school or college directly to an MLB roster. Walker Jenkins is going to be fun to follow this year.
  13. tony&rodney
    That is actually a fun story in a way. Some people bought Enron early and continually sold half each time it doubled. The gains were very impressive (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) and the losses when Enron went bankrupt were still unwanted but almost laughable in the face of the previous gains. It was also, somewhat a lesson in greed. Yes, I do know people who did exactly that.
  14. tony&rodney
    I would be quite surprised if there were any cuts. I think there may be a small add (@$6M). There may be trades aimed at improving the team. The Twins are at $134M including Dobnak.
  15. tony&rodney
    The 26 person roster payroll sits at $131M. Add our buddy Dobnak = $134M. Adding 14 folks on 40 person brings the payroll up as does adding the MLB fees for benefits and bonuses. I don't believe there are any conversations about reducing the payroll at all. There are likely some discussions about the value of spending an additional unknown amount, maybe a guess like $6M added. A reduction from moving a player or three via trades is probably more tied to how that makes the 2025 roster more competitive.
  16. tony&rodney
    You need to redo this. Carl paid $5M down in 1984. The terms of sale required an additional $5M per year over the next 4 years and then a ballon for the remainder of $7M. The Griffiths received $32M by 1989. That arrangement was after Carl had wanted to pay over 20 years and Calvin said, "I'll be dead." Carl paid $11.5 for the minority shares from Gabriel Murphy, which was financed. An investment of $5M in AAPL in November of 1984 still returns a crapload of money. Carl probably wishes he had done that instead.
  17. tony&rodney
    The impressive part of Winokur is not his stats. He is quite athletic and his play has become more refined even if the numbers have not jumped off the page. You have to watch him play in a several dozen games to see the improvement. As the year went on he looked better even as his numbers sagged at times. Obviously, Winokur has used up his honeymoon phase now and we should expect much more consistent production from him at Cedar Rapids. Winokur is a tall player and the refinements typically are a bit harder for taller players. He does need to show where he is headed to some extent, although I think we should expect Brandon to take three more years of experience in the minor leagues.
  18. tony&rodney
    My thinking is that the money is pretty much equal. SD gets their Profar substitute and two pitchers they could use plus a minor leaguer or two. The Twins get a good pitcher for one year. The gap can be filled by any of Matthews, Morris, or Raya in 2026. Cease pitches a ton of quality innings. All of Castro, Paddack, and Cease are free agents next offseason. Why is it too much?
  19. tony&rodney
    The market for Chris Paddack is going to be tough and I do believe he may have fair value in the bullpen. Thing is, it will be sad to see him take starts away from David Festa. So ...... I'm going to propose the Twins trade Paddack to San Diego for Dylan Cease. The Twins will also need to include Simeon Woods Richardson, Willi Castro, and $2 million of international bonus money or a player like Kala'i Rosario and/or Travis Adams. More?
  20. tony&rodney
    That has been what I have been saying. Casas does have a big bat.
  21. tony&rodney
    The East Coast rumors are nonstop and wild. I go days without looking at anything related to Boston or other teams back east, but one today made me chuckle. Tristan Casas to Minnesota for Jhoan Duran and Charlee Soto. Those who like Casas may like this rumor. The price for Pablo Lopez would be Jarren Duran. So, not going to happen.
  22. tony&rodney
    One catcher caught 135 games last year, one - Cal Raleigh. One caught 131 games - Shea Langeliers. Jeffers and Vazquez both caught 86 games. Even that will tell one some information on games caught since there are 162 games and 86 + 86 = 172. The games caught are not necessarily complete games caught. Only 10 catchers caught more than 900 innings last year. Jason Kendall was indeed an iron man. It is now 2025 though and we are not going to see that again very soon if ever. The demands of catching have changed quite a bit with the vast array of information requiring meetings and discussions well beyond the game of the 20th and early 21st century. I'm not suggesting this is better but it is more complex and involves more time. It is what it is.
  23. tony&rodney
    The Twins are in a bit of a tricky place with their players. A few have lost perceived value from last season and those who have taken some strides could soon run into either competition for their jobs or sink back. Julien and Lewis had a pile of value one year ago. TD believes one will rebound and the other is toast. Larnach and Wallner made positive strides last year. This coming year is big for their careers. There are a few fellows hoping to play major league baseball as soon as this year or next: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, and Walker Jenkins. I cannot see any sense in trading any of these three for anything less than an All Star like Henderson and that will never happen. The Twins have some cards. Which do they hold and what can be acquired for those who don't get a seat? Remember how we thought Spencer Steer would never crack the 26 person roster? That may have been the case actually but it shows where a team can maximize player resources. I'm sure there are conversations and discussions not too dissimilar with a few here. The reality is much trickier for those who make the decisions.
  24. tony&rodney
    Neither really. There are so many facets to Ryan. People don't know what he endured. “[Terry is] a guy who progressed up the ladder to become a general manager from the scouting end of it,” Dombrowski told Todd Zolecki of MLB.com in March 2021. “But anytime you would talk to people about evaluators of talent, Terry Ryan’s one of the most respected guys. So Terry’s involved in all the conversations we have now.” The above was from when Dombrowski joined Philadelphia and insisted on moving Ryan into a more major position. Ryan had retreated to a role in scouting, a personal preference of his. “He said he was an outstanding left fielder,” Dombrowski said. “We called Terry when we were thinking about signing him because he’s always spoken very highly of Max. He said makeup-wise, he’s great. Tremendous. We’ve actually tried to acquire him in the past without success. But he said…’I saw him play all three outfield positions and first base and he can play all of them very well.’” Terry Ryan retired a couple of years ago. He still gets phone calls from various people in the industry.
  25. tony&rodney
    Not a big fan of Vazquez or Jeffers. I have repeatedly called for the Twins to add catchers even offering to over pay in certain cases. I have no idea if it would work but a Brooks Lee for Jeferson Quero deal is at least an idea, whether rejected or laughed at by Twins fans. Sorry if it seemed like I was picking on you. Didn't mean to do that. Certain players are, seemingly, a lightning rod for people. I think you have shown that Vazquez struggles and you do jump to point out his failings, which is fair. The Twins do split the catching duties and their catching situation could be worse. More and more teams follow that formula when lacking a clear better option. Some, like Philly, are going to reduce the load for their guy (Realmuto) to reduce the wear. In a different vein, there are an entire troop of people who strongly believe in Royce Lewis, yet want Edouard Julien traded or released. I don't get that, although I have argued for Lewis as the first baseman and think Julien would work well in a trade with a team looking for a LH DH/1B/2B player. The budget doesn't seem like a problem right now but the Twins are unlikely to add any decent free agents. I'm not sure that Vazquez isn't the only option other than Jeffers. I'm still holding out for a trade but believe the Twins are pretty much done.
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