Greglw3

2025 AAA 74 IP.....

The most misleading take a human could come up with!!! 4.04 peak FIP indeed. 2015 AAA 74 IP 54 H 2.31 ERA 32 BB 82 K Dominating. You cannot get a limitation to 54 hits in 74 innings without having dominating stuff. The 82 K in 74 IP says the same thing. Tait’s bat projects well, he’s forced a move to high A at age 18 and hitting in the .290s there.

Painter has about a 4.6 ERA in AAA. Odds he ever becomes a pitcher of Duran’s stature, with career 2.4 ERA??? Interesting also that Phillies balked and pivoted to Jax just as Jax was taken out for Clemens with runners on base and nobody out. Clemens lobs the ball in and the runs score, ballooning his ERA to 4.50. Jax seemed visibly angry and who knows, Rocco may have just cost the Twins some nice rebuilding pieces. I think the Twins should be looking for hitters given their mediocre, at best offense the last 5 years, which has crippled their chances, including this season. I would have been asking for Crawford, Aidan Miller, and A ball prospect.

My answer is no, because we have an offense that is devoid of major league average hitting ability except Buxton. The offense has been dragging the franchise down for most of the last 5 years. Keaschall can help but we’re way short with weaknesses in LF, RF, SS, 2B, 1B, and only average at C. That’s why we need to trade at least Duran OR Jax for 2 young, close to the majors hitters. And if we can pick up more offense that’s going to hit .275-.300 with the group of Castro, Bader, Larnach, Coulombe and possibly Wallner (can’t even catch up to 95 mph fastballs this year. Emmanual Rodriguez hasn’t shown that he’s close to ready, Sabato may be, Gabrial Gonzalez may be also and Walker Jenkins, we can cross our fingers on. But we need a big influx of offense and we should do it while keeping Joe Ryan. Ryan, Pablo, Ober, Zebby, maybe Festa can take us forward but we lack SP depth. St. Paul seems totally devoid of any solutions. If we can pick up 3-4 young hitters, at least 3 close to ready, then we have a chance in 2026. Otherwise no chance.

None of these deals is good enough for even one of Jax Duran. A fair trade for a sure thing top tier major leaguer at a position of extreme need for the Phillies would be Aiden Miller and Justin Crawford for Jhoan Duran. The Twins have stumbled through the last several years, plagued by mediocre to poor offenses. This deal probably still favors the Phillies as there is no guarantee that either Crawford or Miller ever becomes the impact guy Duran is. One the plus side for the Twins, if they both become impact players, then Duran was worth it.

I couldn’t find a place to start a comment so I piggy backed here. These thought are responsive only to the article. I find it impossible to look at mitigating factors or worry about a guy in any way, when he’s hitting .370 and maintains that .370 for a significant period of time. Doubles are a power factor too. That .370 average plus walks is at about the 99.8% spot on the statistical bell shaped curve. I’m finding what he’s doing very exciting and see him as a guy that could possibly replace several of the mediocre to poor hitters on the Twins now, or soon and do better.

I can vouch for Gene Mauch. He was a tactical genius. IMO the best Twins manager ever. His 1977 Twins won 84 games and carried a .282 team batting average featuring Lyman Bostock .336, Larry Hisle (82 RBIs at the all star break!), Rod Carew .388 and Glenn Adams .338 who set the Twins all time RBI record for one game with 8, in the famous June 26, 1977 game vs. the White Sox which resulted in a 19-12 Twins victory. I scored that game at home! Unfortunately the only really legit pitcher they had was their ace Dave Goltz. Bill Campbell (17-5 in relief, had been let go to Boston after the 1976 season). I believe their #2 was Geoff Zahn, a .500 type pitcher. Roy Smally was on that team (Mauch’s nephew, and in a Twitter exchange with me one time, he said he wished that team had been kept together to see what they could have achieved). Sadly, Calvin Griffith was letting every top player walk once free agency started and that 1977 team became 1978’s Bombo Rivera, Hosken Powell, Willie Norwood, Wilfong, Cubbage team which was either a AAA team or a AAAA team.

I don’ have any regard for BABIP and the way it’s used to say this result and that result is due to bad luck. Most of the SABR statistics are young, unproven by any scientific method and mislead about the abilities of the players they are evaluating. The most dubious are WAR, OAA, FIP, all of the so called advanced defensive metrics, launch angle, exit velocity are all based on dubious assumptions. Bill James wrote an article in late 2021 reflectively concluding the WAR is a deeply flawed statistic. He used a very reasoned set of arguments to support his conclusion. He claimed that WAR should be WAG, i.e Wild Ass Guess. I read one of the people that worked on OAA say that it needed more work. Carlos Correa, when asked about his low OAA a few years ago when he was playing brilliant defense, said, "of course my OAA is low, we have a fly ball staff." Stats like OPS, OPS+ while much more palatable to me, are still biased statistics. Toward power hitters. They don’t take into account role on a team so a .400 OBP leadoff hitter with 6 HR doesn’t get the same credit as a .235 avg 30 HR hitter with a .300 OBP. The same statistic shouldn’t be applied to both hitters equally. For what it's worth, Rod Carew had a BABIP of .408 in 1977. He had a magic wand and could place the ball intentionally, often, with bat and wrist manipulation. No luck. Just skill. Ty Cobb’s career Batting average was, without running a z test or t test, statistically the same as his BABIP.

I would choose Joe Ryan as without him, the Twins would really be in dire(er) straits. Buxton second.

The reason those unimpressive low-speed-off-the-bat balls are landing is due to multiple reasons, none having to do with luck. First, Lee is a talented hitter. Second he’s been more selective at the plate lately. Third, dumping those balls onto the grass is a talent, caused by a good hitting eye, getting better counts and very good bat control and not swinging from the heels like lower average K prone hitters do. I saw Rod Carew. I know this level of vision, bat speed adjustment on the fly and placement of the barrel to the ball with some nuance - ability to hit em where they ain’t - is a very real thing. The Twins need more hitters like Lee. I believe Lee will only get better, not regress to the mean, which I don’t think he’s even reached yet. He’s still on the Dark Side of the Mean.

I think they should aggressively try to strike a trade for him for someone like Aaron Sabato or Rubel Cespedes. Since he’s pitched better again with Milwaukee, I’d try to acquire him right now, then extend him 1 year with a team option for a 2nd year.

I have a pretty strong feeling that Culpepper is gonna make his journey to the major leagues quickly.

And ironically, Keaschall is probably a better hitter than the one that Duran would bring back. The only player I would trade Duran for is Carew in his prime, a .388 hitter with 36 doubles 14 triples and 14 HR. There was talk of Jared Duran being traded. He’d be a good pickup for the Twins but at a price less than Duran or Keaschall for that matter. I agree the Twins need at least one more bat and open to multiple ways to do it, but Duran could be a key cog in a world championship.

No, it was definitely Castro.

Honest truth is Lewis and Castro are hurting the team, Lewis on offense and Castro on offense and defense. Castro’s defense in the Tampa Bay game where he failed to field 3 consecutive balls to LF and let one of them kick way across the field was Delmon Young-ish. And his hitting has been abysmal.

Shows the value of expected record.

I agree, a pitcher of Ryan’s caliber only comes along once in a decade or once in a generation. The Twins are now getting passable offense with Carson McCusker, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Jeferson Morales (in my top 20), Brooks Lee (still maturing), Luke Keaschall, Kaelen Culpepper, Walker Jenkins and Kyle DeBarge all possible reinforcements. With a big 3 of the dominant Pablo Lopez, the dominant Joe Ryan and the near dominant Baily Ober. That’s 3 huge pieces toward a WS champion. If Paddack continues as against SF (a big if, maybe), and Richardson stays himself., the current rotation can win with average to slightly above average hitting. The Twins shouldn’t break up that big 3 which is potentially a big 3 to take them to the WS, possibly 3 sub 3.00 starters. What would help even more is not subtracting Ryan but adding Zebby Matthews if he can dominate in the Bigs, then you’ve got a legitimate WS contender, if a few things improve for the offense.

Seems Larnach was worse than Keirsey after 150 MLB AB and had to be sent down because he struck ut on any breaking stuff. Rodney could do it. Add in the 4 bases he’s stolen too. Slow starts to MB careers are very common, Torri Hunter, Matt Wallner and I remember the great all-star, gold glove, Chisox 3rd baseman Robin Ventura starting his career something like 1 for 42. Did you see Keirsey’s spectacular catch the other day. Stole a hit, same as getting one. so 7 bases, 2 singles, 4 stolen bases and 1 theft.

Yes, that was a very good move. One of his best, post 2018-19.

But Falvey still says to this day, "I have a ton of faith in the players in that locker room". Well there’s the problem. Falvey needs to enroll in a Strat-O-Matic league with sharp managers to learn the type of players it takes to win and the type of attentive, responsive, yes, aggressive managing it takes to win. Or he could watch film of the great tactician, Gene Mauch, who I consider the best Twins manager ever and one of the greatest managers in baseball history. Watch the whole 1976 or 1977 seasons and see what a GREAT manager looks like.

Your article is so on point that there’s little I can add. Any daily Twins fan mesmerized by all the .150s and .180s, .210s in the lineup day after day, could use 3rd grade math to see that lineup was going to be a drag. And the bench with all .1xx batting averages. That’s why the Keaschall injury was so heartbreaking. He and Lewis could have given a big jump. I’d strongly consider bringing up McCusker. Larnach is barely passable. Or start and outfield of Bader, Buxton and Keirsey and have the best defensive OF in baseball and give Keirsey his first sustained (200 AB) to see if that .300 hitter is still in there. But fly Rodney Cline out to help him with his bunting with the goal of 20 bunt hits the rest of the season. And set a goal of 100 stolen bases for Bader, Buxton and Keirsey the rest of the year. Shake it up! Let’s go!

A new manager might not run the stupid contact play into rally killing out after rally killing out. He/she might not play the infield in all the doggone time, giving up extra runs like early in today’s Boston game. He might not leave in struggling starters to give up 8-10 runs, thus giving up games that might have been salvaged and take out pitchers who have 7 IP 2 only to have the bullpen blow it. I think they may well start winning more games with an experienced baseball man. Could they have had Francona this last offseason?

What struck me as totally mind boggling is Falvey says he still has a tone of belief in the guys in that locker room, essentially the same team that has gone 26-47 last year til now. So tired of his excuse making, stonewalling and cluelessness. At least this year after a typically rotten offseason, he’s promoted Keaschall and acquired Bride and Clemens. He’s had this team 8 years and here we are losing record save one season where he actually tried in the offseason 2018-2019.

Luke Keaschall THE MAN! I haven’t been so impressed with a prospect since I guess, Royce Lewis!Walker Jenkins Hurry back, my man! I need to have my Rod Carew withdrawal symptoms satiated someday soon!Emmanuel Rodriguez Somewhat disappointing first 65 AB this year but I’m going by all the overwhelming plaudits from the experts. The season is young.Carson McCusker He’s hitting at a supreme level at AAA. He could force his way onto the Twins.Connor Prielipp Finally healthy. I took heart in his 3 shutout innings the other day. Love his BB to K ratio and WHIP. Almost 2 Ks per inning???!!! Hopefully he could come fast.Gabriel Gonzalez Somewhat intriguing and hopeful for me and his CR start is a pretty good one. As a fan of high batting averages and on base percentages I like the .368 he has. AT least this week!Kyle DeBarge Very impressive start at CR and only 21. A lot to like about Kyle DeBarge!Kaelen Culpepper A very good looking prospect. All signs point upward!Andrew Morris Rough start with IP to H and WHIP but hopefully dueling Zebby for top pitching callup soon.Ricardo Olivar Impressive track record, very nice start to 2025. A candidate for a guy when he reaches the majors of the well word but significant phrase "he’s hit everywhere he’s been" or "all he does is hit"Billy Amick Dang! Looks like a young Wade Boggs! Crazy good offensive stats in multiple years including this one. How long does A ball hold him?Tanner Schobel I liked what I saw in spring training and he’s playing pretty well at Wichita.Dasan Hill Only 19, 3+ years younger than those he’s playing with and a small sample dominant start to the season. Rubel Cespedes I probably have him higher than anybody but I’ve liked him ever since I became exposed to him repeatedly on TF’s minor league videos and he’s still doing pretty darn well with 15 RBIs in 60+ AB!Jeferson Morales Impressed mightily in broadcast spring training games. Impressed with a Catcher’s triple in St. Paul. The jury’s out but my eyes were opened.Brandon Winokur A bit disappointing so far except for the 11 BB in 75 AB.Danny De Andrade I like his OBP! Kinda low BAs but he’s only 21 and looked pretty steady in spring training!CJ Culpepper Uh, what is his injury? Because he’s pitched pretty darn well so far!DaShawn Keirsey Jr A personal favorite. Every out at the MLB level feels like a kick in the gut. Jury’s still out. I think the Twins should fly Rod Carew in and work with Keirsey on his bunting. Seriously! 30 bunt hits would boost that average and allow him to swipe bases. He looks like a guy with elite speed that is gonna outrun the ball most of the time on steals.Charlee Soto Performance way behind the hype so far Not a shred of evidence that Raya’s a top prospect. 3.5 innings per start over a long period of time is the ultimate head scratcher. And he’s off to a horrific start in 2025. Keaschall moves to the top of the list with his scintillating performance for the Twins. He looks like a future star and maybe a current one depending on the adjustment game. I’m excited by Walker Jenkins when he plays which is starting to fall into the Buxton, Lewis zone, unfortunately. His projections are just what the Twins need. They need a .300 hitter in their lineup badly! I went with players who are showing real promise. I would have probably put Zebby Mathews as the #1 pitching prospect in the system. Morris, yes, but the out of whack WHIP worries. Jose Rodriguez has a long way to go, right now I’d be hard pressed to bet on him.

Quality human being who donated his early Angels salary to charity because he felt so sheepish about his slow start!