Greglw3

I agree with those who say don’t trade Correa and would add they must sign him to a long term deal. IMO just as important or more (due to Correa’s relative durability) than signing Buxton last offseason. I would not trade Urshela because he provides somewhat of an iron wall with Correa on the left side. I would trade Kepler and think the Twins OF would be just fine with Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Celestino, Garlick. And the no brainer is that Sano is getting passed by, perhaps by Miranda. So I’ve got Kepler as the main trade chip and they could tap the minors for the extra ingredients.

We can’t have a discussion on Urshela’s defense vs. anyone because you completely lost Me by considering it necessary to state that Urshela’s metrics put him as one of the worst in the league and that he isn’t even top 10 by the eye test. Ridiculous!!! I don’t know of any other player that has made a reaching, near miraculous diving stop, roll over on his back and laying on the ground, on his back, from his but get enough on the throw to throw the runner out. Cite me an example where another player has done that. Plus, his throwing arm is strong and reliable and he has made many more spectacular plays than the one I described. I’ve followed baseball for 58 years and NEVER, not once, see a 3rd baseman make a play like that. And he almost did it again. Per Aaron Gleeman quoting Rocco Baldelli: Rocco Baldelli, pregame, on Gio Urshela's defense: "He's been exceptional at third base. Really on all kinds of plays. His feel for the game is high-end. He has one of the better baseball minds of anyone. His feel is exceptional, his awareness is great."

Those metrics, in my opinion, any defensive metric except errors (which is of limited value) is attempting an unobtainable reading of a defensive player’s worth. This was an accepted fact until what I would call the SABR fad grew into increasing, but ill-placed popularity. I don’t reject SABR stats because I’m old school but because I constantly see them being used to draw conclusions that any good scout will tell you is unwarranted. But, in the end, anyone - be they a fan or a front office person is free to use UZR and whatever evolving version of WAR they like or the flawed OPS+ to make their evaluations. Stats are exciting. I took 6 courses in Northwestern’s Masters in Predictive Analytics courses so I love stats. But the expression, "there are lies, damned lies and statistics" kind of holds true when new, unproven statistics are used to come up with such silly conclusions as " Eddie Rosario with his ~300 batting average and team leading 109 RBIs and overall at least average defense, fantastic throwing arm, is the worst left fielder in the league. Or in the current case Gio Urshela is not a good fielder due to UZR or some other totally unreliable defensive statistic. WHen some Twins fans (a lot?) were saying Eddie was a bad overall LF. I did some research and his WAR was north of 3. Then they subtracted all the way from 3.2 or 3.4 down to a final 0.9 due to defense. No way his defense was so bad that it took about 75% of his overall value away! He caught most balls hit to him, made an occasional bonehead play but then contributed to winning with his throwing arm I don’t think that in the tradition of statistical analysis, there is any way to run a two group trial and prove whether any of the statistics are accurate or not.

Every commentator with baseball knowledge has piped in that Urshela is having a spectacular defensive season. Have you been watching the games? And sorry, there is no metric that can measure defense range, the SABR metric UZR? is worthless based on my experience. I think that you have to go all the way back to Brooks Robinson to find a better defensive 3rd baseman than Gio Urshela. We agree to disagree on this but we couldn’t disagree more. But that’s what makes it interesting. Two Twins fans looking at the same player with 360 degrees different opinions. I know, however, that we both sincerely want what it takes to make the Twins a World Series Champion. Heck, I want 1972-1974 Oakland A's kind of success and think it’s possible building around Urshela, Correa, Buxton, Arraez, Polanco and hopefully Larnach, Kirilloff and Miranda although all 3 might not stay if 1 is traded for a top level pitcher.

I’ve sensed that the Twins FO and everybody around believe that Miranda will hit. Latroy Hawkins emphasized this. He’s just in the beginning of his rookie year. Remember how Sano wa s thought to be lacking defensively at third when he first came up. I’ve seen some really poor defensive play from Miranda but also some flashes of a good defensive player. Remember the play at first where he angled into foul territory to avoid collision and shorten the distance to the ball? Painful as it would be, I’d rather trade Kirilloff for a true #1 starter. Also Martin could be available. For me Urshela and Correa should be fixtures for at least the next 5 years with Buxton and Arraez. Lewis and Celestino are both special talents. If they’re going to trade a guy with 5-6 years control, then the #1 coming back, Castillo, Montas or Mahle needs to be extended. I think a World Series Championship is possible this year if Gray and Ryan are moved to #2 and #3. So let’s do it!!!

I believe that Urshela and Correa are two of the main reasons why the Twins have turned it around and are winning now because of their gold glove caliber defense and strong hitting. They are winning players from winning cultures/organizations and should both be extended as part of a potential WS level team. Also add in Sanchez as I read or heard that he also came in and set about imparting "winning culture" habits by talking to some players as needed.

I believe that the Twins will sign Correa t a long term contract and that they can’t afford not to. It’s similar in importance for them to sign Correa to a long term contract as it was with Buxton last offseason. Correa is a franchise player. For those of us who remember, it would be akin to letting Lyman Bostock walk after the 1977 season. Correa likes it here and has expressed an openness to negotiate a long term contract with the Twins. They Twins must extend him and in doing so, they will have a vastly greater chance of winning playoff games and advancing to the World Series and winning it.

I agree, Kirilloff for the long haul and even the rest of the season seems a better bet than Kepler. How about an OF of Kirilloff, Lewis and Larnach when Buxton’s not playing. I like Arraez at 1B. My belief is that there is no better option than a .358 hitter with a .445 OBP (at any position, really). Kirilloff could DH some, especially since Jeffers at DH has been a colossal weakness. And play 1st some but Arraez needs to play every game and bat leadoff. I happen to think a top 2 of Arraez and Celestino would be awesome. Both high average and both very high on base. Depending on whether Buxton can make a big improvement, A top 4 of Arraez, Celestino, Correa and Kirilloff could intrigue. Then Larnach and Sanchez the Urshela. Then you need to fit Lewis in. I believe the Twins should sign Correa long term and play both Lewis and Correa in the same lineup for the long haul. I think trading Kepler well would be a good start. I also love Gordon and think the Twins need to keep him because he’s - and Chris Archer said this recently, even if just dazzled by one game - he called Gordon a 5 tool player. He does have power, when you consider triples and HRs. He generates a lot of bat speed with that whippet quick swing.

I think it’s far less complicated than all that. I think it’s likely his ankle is bothering him again. I thought I heard that mentioned from at least one credible Twins person.

That is the truth * 10,000!

Nick Gordon hit .271 in the month of May and plays spectacular defense in LF. Since May 12, he is hitting .289. Using OPS+ to evaluate Gordon is meaningless because it skews pretty heavily toward power hitters. But power hitter or slugger is just one role on a team. It’s not Gordon’s role. He should maybe be compared against all leadoff hitters since that’s closest to his natural role. Gordon has so many ways to help. A stolen base. A great catch that saves runs. 1st to 3rd. Triple potential. And an ability to play probably 5 positions well. I would not even think about letting him go.

Gordon has been worth a lot for the Twins with a respectable .258 BA, very good speed and bunting ability and superb defense in LF. If he’s let go, he’ll be snapped up so fast, it’ll be alarming. I’m ready for Lewis’ return and permanently. Not as sure about Kirilloff. I think the wrist is still hurting and what happens when the cortisone shot wears off? Another one maybe? The Twins OF situation is getting to be a backlog of talent, which, I guess is good! If I’m honest, I would catch Sanchez most and not DH Jeffers but use that slot for someone like Celestino or Lewis or Kirilloff. I would consider Lewis the #1 CF on Byron Buxton off days and #1 LF on other days. Larnach can get at bats in LF and DH.

I’d bring up Lewis and hopefully for the long haul. Maybe 15 years. Your reasons are the right ones.

I would never want Martin Perez back on the Twins - very streaky and when he’s bad, he’s very bad and it can last for months.

They should do the opposite and sign Correa long term. He’s already with Sanchez and Urshela taught the Twins a ton about winning and created a winning culture They can have Lewis and Correa in the same lineup.

Two words to confirm what you’re saying about Arraez at 1B. Rod Carew. Won the MVP as a high average hitter playing 1B in 1977.

Why not sign Correa to that long term deal and have them both in the lineup? Lewis has 62 built in games in cf with Buxton limited to 100 and the rest he could strengthen the outfield by playing alongside Buxton and Kepler in lf. Too talented for lf? Two words: Rickey Henderson. Or Alex Gordon. Imagine a top 4 of : 1- Arraez 1B (Carew 1B MVP) 2-Lewis LF 3-Correa SS 4-Buxton CF I think this would be best with Urshela 3B Uncommon defensive wizard and possible GG win, Larnach DH/LF/RF/1B. Polanco 2B, C Sanchez, If Kirilloff comes back into the conversation, he can play 1B and Arraez DH (and back up other places). Then it’s a matter of finding the best place for Larnach. In my mind, he’s never going to be able to match Lewis defensively nor in SB potential as a LF.

I’m slightly worried but I don’t subscribe to the premise he needs to hit with power. Remember Moneyball was based on acquiring a team full of high OBA guys. The runs will flow. He could make an especially good leadoff hitter, getting on base at a .400 clip and setting up guys like Correa and Buxton.

That is a great article Ted! Very interesting read, stimulating and even exciting to read. I like Spencer Steer also. And Lewis has developed into a very exciting prospect with his total domination of AAA this year! Canterino I have hopes for but tempered a bit by his current brittleness and the walks. I’m a huge fan of walks for hitters but not so much for pitchers. Congrats on writing a really fine article! It brightened up my day right at the start!

Nashville Twin. Does this mean that like me, you’re a Twins fan living in Nashville?

Did you really think the Twins would pay Correa 35MM to play SS? All signs I’ve seen point to Correa planning to be here for awhile. Signs coming from him. It doesn’t have to be 10 years. But yes, Lewis up sooner rather than later. There’s plenty of room for an immense talent like Royce.

The talk about having any reliance on Jax, Cotton or Thorpe really scares me. You never know in baseball....maybe Jax can make a viable 1 inning reliever. I’m more comfortable with Duran and Winder. I think it would be like rolling snakeeyes 5 times in a row if Bundy, Ober, Ryan, Winder all were below 4.00 ERA pitchers this year. I’d love it but it would go against baseball history big time. It’s a tough problem to solve at this point. I keep visiting MLBTRs several times a day!

I do think the inaction shows that Oakland’s price is too high. I’d forget about Montas now, keep Miranda and Martin and try to trade a prospect w 6 years control for 1 of Manea and not Winder. Someone like Cole Sands for Manea. I’ve seen it happen where the 87 Twins won the World Series with basically a 3 man pitching staff in the playoffs and WS. SO one more good starter Manea or Cueto would really help and then maybe the 3rd guy would step up during the season. I’m still squeamish about starting Kepler and Sano. I honestly think 550 AB of Miranda > the risk of 550 AB w Sano. And Kepler would be my 4th OF with Larnach, Buxton and Kirilloff being the OF. So out with Kepler Sano and 2 inexperienced pitchers and in with Manea and Cueto Larnach and Kirilloff.

I'd love to get Odo back!

Basically a #1 and 4 number 5s or to be charitable to Bundy,a #1, a #4 and 3 #5s. I can’t believe they let the pitching slide this long.