Greglw3

Gallo has had 4 good-great (3 good to very good, 1 great) seasons as defined by OPS+ 109, 118, 121, 145.

The hole in RF where the incumbent has never done any of the following, all of which Gallo has: Hit 38 Home runs Hit 40 Home Runs twice Won 2 gold gloves Named to the all-star team 2 times Stolen 20 consecutive bases, as Gallo has as of now. Had 111 walks in one season (2021). That hole.

Your answer is correct but what this al adds up to is we don’t have any OFers remotely close to star quality. IMO< they need to sign or trade for two quality OFs such as Brantley, Binentendi, Haniger. Then the box is checked. On to catcher, backup CF, maybe DH.

The catching situation is extremely dire. Jeffers is among a big group of question marks. Polanco, Kirilloff, Larnach, Buxton, Left field and right field plus Pagan and Lopez. I think maybe Wallner is ready as was Miranda (Kepler has to be moved) but I’d prefer an established hitter to start in RF, then maybe Wallner rises to the top. Jeffers may improve or he may linger around .200 all year, which would be a killer for a big rebound season. They need to sign Contreras or Christian Vázquez or trade for a Danny Jansen. Jeffers should begin season as strictly a backup.

Mr. Joe Pohlad needs to do exactly that. For a modest 160-170 MM, he gets a team that can compete for playoff success. And the perpetually filled Target field, concessions and parking would repay him handsomely. Joe Pohlad has a major opportunity here! I don’t like opt outs but after year 4 works fairly well, although I’d be happy with after year 5 or 6. But if Correa and Boras want that, as Nick has conceived the contract, I’d be OK with it, then strike quickly for Contreras or Rodon. And I want Brantley and/or Haniger too. Shed Kepler’s salary to make room in the new era budget! Oh and David Robertson too!

Marshall was far, far better pitcher than Pagan, at least according to my memory. That’s probably why the cerebral Gene Mauch used him so much.

Notice I said, "some combination of the following". I didn’t mean to suggest they should make all those moves. You’re right, the payroll might be in Dodgers territory. I my rebuild of the Twins for 2023 I traded and signed free agents with Jim Pohlad giving me a $160 MM payroll. I’m at 162.5 but look what I got! I did set the trade difficulty closer to the most difficult so that Thad Levine would say, "Thinking about this deal gives me heartburn" and the other GM would say, "You’ll need to get serious to get a deal done!"

I wasn’t suggesting those 4 players for Burnes or Woodruff but merely listing 4 players they could trade as part of the offseason overhaul. Kepler first! I’d have to think about what I would trade for one of them. Maybe Urshela as part of it, even though I love him to death.

I agree, Sign Correa now and add more significant pieces. Some combination of the following: Sign Michael Brantley for LF. Sign Jose Abreu for 1B. Sign A.J. Pollock as 4th OF, possible platoon work with Matt Wallner in RF. Trade for Burnes or Woodruff from Brewers: tradeables Kepler, Mahle, Polanco, Garlick. Sign Willson Contreras as C. Sign David Robertson. Keep Gio Urshela at 3B Get a legitimate ML CF as backup for Buxton in CF. They could also fill in around the OF and DH and play CF on Buxton’s frequent rest days. Payroll minimum $160MM. It would be expected to rise from $142 MM to about $152 MM anyway so stretch a little and earn the money back in 30,000 plus crowds, increased concessions, parking, etc.

WHy not sign a career .298 hitter for LF, a potential batting title contender in Michael Brantley? Then you could have two Luis Arraez’s batting 1-2. Binentendi would be good too but Brantley would be more affordable. And outfield of Brantley, Buxton and Wallner would have strong potential. I guess Garlick could take on the tougher lefties, I would have preferred A.J. Pollock. They also need a serviceable CF backup for Buxton. Without spending too much money for that, they could look to Nick Gordon to fill that role. I’d sign Correa for SS with Swanson #1 backup. And I’d go hard for Willson Contreras. Could Robbie Ray be pried away from the Mariners? Burnes, Gallen? They’re gonna have to move their payroll up to $160MM and I firmly believe Jim Pohlad would do that. OF Brantley, Buxton, Wallner - (Garlick - Gordon) 3B Urshela SS-Correa 2B-Polanco or Julien 1B Arraez C Contreras DH Haniger? Gordon LF/CF/2B/DH

I’m trading Kepler. He’s been subpar and I think Wallner is ready in a similar way to Miranda last year. Kirilloff can factor in pending performance and injuries. I’m signing Hanogar and Willson Contreras. I expect Gordon to play a lot and continue his offensive improvement. He’s good insurance as well for Polanco’s injury proneness. I still like Billy Hamilton as his inexpensive mid to long term injury replacement. I’m trading for Brady singer in his walk year. That gives six starters for depth with Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder as further depth. The Twins will have to spend $160 MM to contend. Assuming a $10 MM increase from last years $142 to $152, they’ll have to stretch to get this quality team that will excite the fans and WIN (TWINS)! C: Wilsson Contreras ($23.00M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.00M) LF: Mitch Haniger ($8.1M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.70M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: AJ Pollock ($6.00M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($1.20M) Utility: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($6.00M) SP3: Brady Singer ($0.7M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Kendall Graveman ($8.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Trevor May ($6.00M) RP: David Robertson ($8.00M) RP: Kenta Maeda ($3.0M) Payroll is 11.89% over budget

I agree with you we need another hitter. My plan adds Contreras, Binentendi, Pederson, Abreu. I draw an analogy to when Buxton was hitting .160 about 4-5 yrs ago and I had no doubt he was elevating the team with his stunning defense and stolen bases. He’s the only hitter hitting .160 that I would have said that about in my lifetime. He opened my eyes. With Hamilton stealing 10/11 bases in very limited time, it appears to me he still has the chops he had when he stole 50-60 bases 4 times. I have no doubt at 32 that his defense would be in a category with his past defense. I felt strongly that Baldelli completely mismanaged him. But your point is a good one. If Baldelli, for whatever reason, used him the way he did in 2022, then he probably would not use him according to my vision in 2023. So back to the drawing board. I’m a big Billy Hamilton fan because of the things I’ve seen him do on the baseball field. To me, his talent is electrifying with a career BA above Kepler and Cave and maybe Celestino. Disappointment has long been a thing I’ve had to live with as a Twins fan, having grown up in the Calvin Griffith years when he let Bostock, Bill Campbell, Rod Carew, Larry Hisle, Dan Ford, Dave Goltz all leave only for the virtually worthless package he got for Carew. And yet I’m still as avid a fan as ever!

I tried to clean things up with Contreras, Binentendi in LF, Buxton in CF (Billy Hamilton) and Joc Pederson if RF with Austin Martin at SS and Abreu at 1B, Arraez at 2B, Urshela at 3B. 140.1 MM total. Kirilloff and Larnach waiting in the wings assuming 1 or both are healthy.

I have Billy Hamilton as his backup. Probably won’t happen but his defense and stolen base ability can be so good as to make him a plus even if he doesn’t hit real well. That said, he is a .239 career hitter. Better than Celestino in my estimation.

I think that’s the way to go. I had Contreras at C, Binentendi in LF and Joc Pederson in RF. Buxton backed up by Billy Hamilton. Concessions: Austin Martin at SS (imagine, Buxton, Gordon, Hamilton, Martin all stealing bases a/la the Guardians).

I think that Kirilloff and Polanco should be in the questionable category and get someone with a healthy track record and proven performnce in LF, 2B, 1B, C. My 2023 payroll projection has Binentendi in LF, Pederson in RF, Abreuu at 1b, Contreras at C and comes in at 140.1 M

I got this from Spotrac.com.

Hi Reptevia, please check again. I revised it with projected AAV for the 2023 free agents when available.

They can win jobs but I want the proven ML hitters to force them into depth roles due to their last 2 years injuries and struggles. Injuries and slumps happen and the cream always rises so nothing would stop them from playing a lot or even becoming regulars. Counting on them and not bringing in winning type OF talent could leave the Twins with another Cave-Celestino-Kepler kind of OF which is a certain recipe for non-contention.

Could you guys help me out with your estimated salaries for my free agents? I’ll revise and adjust. I do have a payroll of $150M. I remember last year when these spreadsheet and just about everybody assumed $130M and the actual was $140M.

OAA is my least favorite baseball statistic ever invented, not a joke. I think OAA is consistently and wildly misleading and is literally changing the beliefs of many whose lyin’ eyes see that Urshela and Correa are both gold glove caliber but change their minds when they see OAA. I regard it as junk science at best. Worst, some national writers who don’t watch Twins games are bamboozled by OAA into thinking Urshela and Correa are defensively mediocre to poor. Correa, for example won the platinum glove as the best defensive player in the American League, regardless of position in 2021. Despite OAA or UZR or other similar stats, Correa was right in the same ballpark this year with a very low error total for a SS (8) and good range and a throwing arm that is second to none at SS, where he turns countless hits into outs and many feeders choices into double plays. He makes the high leaping catch as well as anyone. That’s not to say that Swanson is not a great defensive player. In 2021, anyway, Correa won the platinum glove and Swanson didn’t. I just read an article on a Braves oriented site that Swanson may be gone due to their GM not wanting to pay for big, long term contracts.

Bravo! I think you hit the nail squarely on the head with your whole article. I couldn’t agree more. Hopefully they finally build more depth or real major league experienced players to cover for the chronically injured among the Twins 40 man roster else they could once again have an outfield of Cave (substitute Cave-like player), Celestino and Kepler in Big games. See my greglw3’s 2023 payroll blueprint.

I like your line of thinking. I like that you shook up the offense. I did the same thing in putting Arraez at 2nd, leaving Polanco out because of his injury history the last 3 years. I don’t think we can plan around players that have been chronically injured. Keep the door open for them if they can beat out healthier options over last few years but can’t count on them. I think putting Austin on your roster was smart. I originally had him as the starting shortstop but signed Dansby Swanson at an apparently too low $13. So, I feel very comfortable with putting Martins OBP and his 34/39 SB back there. I’m not as high on Jeffers but if the Twins scouts believe he’ll hit than I’d defer. In my plan, I put Willson Contreras. Good move putting Brooks Lee in there at SS! I think he’s coming fast like a freight train and will hit and maybe be a great #2 in the order option after Arraez. I like Wallner, Larnach and Kirilloff but I did go out and get Binentendi for LF and Joc Pederson or Mitch Haniger (one other) for RF to build depth due to Kirilloff and Larnach’s injury histories. With depth, maybe Kirilloff is healthy and wins a position or earns 450 or more AB. I also love Billy Hamilton and retained him for his spectacular defense and SB ability as a long term Buxton injury option. I agree with every single on of your pitching options. I think I had a couple more relievers, one of them Matt Wisler and Andrew Chafin for a 3rd lefty. My plan is under greglw3’s 2023 payroll blueprint if you want to check it out. I think we’re both thinking in the same progressive direction. I think Wallner, Martin, Lee and possibly Larnach and Kirilloff can all help in 2023. The you speed and bat skills would be just what the Dr. ordered! Oh, and I’m a Nashvillian to since 2014!

Cave is gone. Wallner will be around. Gordon stays. Kepler is the issue. He may not be tradeable or if he is, they may have to pay part of his salary. That’s the route I would take.

Wow! I was going by the fact he made 10M last year. Obviously, I’ve underrated his salary. However, when you say at least double, we’re starting to get into Carlos Correa territory. Even though I’m not a fan of most SABR statistics (some worse than others), for the sake of comparison, Swanson had an OPS+ of 115 and Correa 140. Plus Swanson’s defense, would have a hard time topping Correa’s. To be honest, I originally had Austin Martin as the SS but had extra money in the budget so I upgraded. I think Martin is such a superior athlete and has such great speed and base stealing ability that he may come fast. Somewhat influenced by his late season finish at Wichita and his super sizzling AFL start and his high number of stolen bases at a very high % success rate (35/41 SB). I wouldn’t mind going back to Martin and going after a Rodon or Bassitt type starter.