Greglw3

Here’s what I posted on Twitter yesterday and it’s relevant to the FO decision making.

While researching this, I was flabbergasted to see Winder’s ERA all the way up to 3.5 with apparently only 2 IP. After some digging-- mostly in very recent articles on TD and a post on Twitter, I was mostly reassured that he escaped largely unscathed!

Bailey Ober has come up and made a pretty good impression. Still the Twins need more help. With Larnach and Kirilloff looking like franchise players, who will be the next pitching prospect capable of coming to the Twins and helping?

I think last night gave him a nicely improved "numbers argument". I took a look at his numbers in Baseball Reference and he is slashing .209/.304/.441/.745 OPS with a 0.6 WAR after the two homer night (3 homers in 2 games?). The league average for the AL is .244/.316/.410 and a .725 OPS. The WAR seems low although I’m not a Sabrmetrics guy. I think the two homers are maybe a sign he’s ready to make the uphill climb. To anybody that puts much credence in the Sabrmetrics stats, this may not make sense but I think that a .745 OPS or OPS+ is not the same when the OBP part of it is reached more by walks than hits, which is the case for Kepler. With a .209 BA, he has to elevate 107 points to get to the league average OPS. Quite simply, on the whole, a hit is much more valuable than a walk. I also agree with Dodecahedron that Kepler gave the Twins 3 months of far substandard production for a RF (thus chipping in his fair share with the complex web of reasons why the Twins record is so bad). I just read that with OPS+ it adjusts for the park but not for the position. Especially prior to this recent outburst, I find it hard to believe that he would have been over 100 compared to all AL right fielders with his .199 BA and .680ish SLG. Let’s hope he can keep it up!

I see players on other teams hitting to the vacant spot at second base a lot but not as much on the Twins. That shift, had it been employed against Rod Carew would have lasted no more than one game!

Agree, it is sad. Max seems like a good guy. Does he have as much talent as Larnach or Kirilloff? I thought so but it appears not. He needs some good coaching and a willingness to change his approach. It may be time to cut ties.

I think his biggest problem is he can’t or won’t use the whole field like Larnach and Kirilloff. My theory is that he became pull happy after the 36 home runs and wants to beat the shift by hitting over it. Now, disturbingly he’s striking out a lot too. I agree, he should almost never bat against a lefty. So many times he could have an easy single if he would just bunt to the left side with the extreme shifts leaving half the left side of the infield open. .199 or just over .200 just won’t cut it.

I feel frustrated that Baldelli left Griffin Jax in way too long - well after he showed he was tiring. I’d say 5 or 6 hitters too long. He’s been doing this for 3 years. And it costs games. Shoemaker left in for 9 runs in the first, Martin Perez left in and beaten up for 8 runs early in a game in 2019. The list is very long. It pains me to say it but he just seems out of touch with in game pitcher management.

Who do you think is the best left fielder in Twins history? Although I didn’t add anybody based on their listing, credit to Twinstrivia.com for their top 10 list.

Gladden had batting averages in the upper .240s and OPS of .673 and .662 for 1987 and 1991 respectively. I was comparing that to Lyman Bostock w .323 and .336 in ’76 and ’77. However, despite the substandard offense, Gladden was a very strong defensive player, a gritty player and like you mentioned, he did win 2 WS. So, I agree, he deserves to be in the conversation for those reasons.

I think this sums it up: 5 starters. 3 starters with ERAs of #1: 5.56, #4: 5.83 and #5: 7.18. Even the 1977 Twins with Carew’s .388, Bostock’s .336 and Glenn Addams .338 plus Hisle’s .302 with 119 RBIs couldn’t win with three heavy innings starters with those ERAs.

I think right now, as much as I still like Celestino’s future, that Whitefield’s speed and bat would better serve the Twins now. At least they should try it but have apparently decided not to.

I was thinking he could still float and dh a little. It’s worked so far! And thanks!

I’d like to present a vision for the Twins incorporating prospects, post 2021 free agents, a possible trade target, and a potential look for the Twins with a philosophical change for the Twins post trade deadline and looking to 2022. A primary component in my vision is adding speed. To that end, assuming Simmons is traded (which he should be IMO), I’d like to see Aaron Whitefield and his .304/.372/.410 slash line with 15/21 SB in CF until Buxton comes back. Secondly, I’d like to see Gordon given the full time 2nd base job as he’s hit at AAA and the majors this year and is 10/10 in SB combined. Ultimately, I think the combination of Buxton, Whitefield and Gordon could add a dynamic new speed element to the team and make the team’s offense more balanced. Next, I’d like to look at the prospects that I think can help, especially if the Twins sell well at the deadline. Part of the plan assumes that we have outfield prospects that implore the moving of the long slumping Max Kepler either to another team or as the 4th outfielder. Let’s look at two pitching prospects who I think might be able to help in 2021 and going forward. As a starter, Josh Winder has a 1.98 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and .208 BA allowed. He could possibly fill that 5th starting position with Pineda #3 and Ober #4. I’d like to see if he’s a better solution than Dobnak. It’s an open competition but it seems Winder deserves to be in it. As a reliever, Jovani Moran has totally dominated AA with a 1.98 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and .121 BA against in 15 relief appearances encompassing 27.1 IP. It doesn’t look like anybody is ready at AAA right now. At Cedar Rapids, Matt Canterino could come fast once back from injury with his 35 K in 18 IP. Then there are the two major pitching prospects Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic who, while neither seems ready, it’s still possible they could contribute in 2021. Next, I’ll look at the hitters ready to make an impact and how things might be juggled to make it happen. I’d like to see three hitters currently at Wichita promoted to the Twins. Those would be the aforementioned Aaron Whitefield who when up with the Twins last year was purported to have world class speed. Second would be Jose Miranda who has had a breakthrough season of stunning proportions slashing .349/.414/.586. I see Miranda as a cornerstone going forward. That could mean trading Josh Donaldson (whose trade value is increasing) for the best starting pitching prospect they could get. Third is Ernie De La Trinidad who could spend time in RF with Kepler (.200/.293/.394) being moved to 4th OF or traded (as I mentioned earlier), at least until De La Trinidad has had a full chance to prove himself. De La Trinidad has earned his opportunity with his own breakthrough season, slashing .323/.406/.526. This would yield an OF of Larnach, Whitefield, De La Trinidad with Kepler 4th OF and when Buxton comes back Larnach, Buxton, Whitefield with Kepler and De La Trinidad as 4th and 5th outfielders or DH. With Simmons and Donaldson traded, the Twins can vault into the future with an infield of 3B Miranda, SS Polanco, 2B Gordon and 1B Kirilloff. I don’t envision the catching situation changing. At Designated Hitter, the Twins have a big decision to make. I feel torn because Nelson Cruz has added so much to the Twins franchise and is still an elite hitter, so part of me wants to see him retire as a Twin, possibly at the end of 2022. However, if the Twins can give such prospects as Winder, Moran, Miranda, De La Trinidad and Whitefield a long look and get maybe a pitching prospect in the 8-15 range for Donaldson and the 8-12 range for Cruz, then that might well be the way to go. So far, the elevation of Larnach, Kirilloff and Gordon has worked out very well. I’d like to think that adding Winder, Moran, Miranda, Whitefield and De La Trinidad would yield the Twins at least two more cornerstones to move forward with. Next, I have 5 free agents, one or more of whom I’d like to see the Twins be very aggressive in their pursuit, with a goal of landing one. The master plan would involve re-signing Michael Pineda and adding one of the following 5: Marcus Stroman 2.32 ERA 1.055 WHIP and .219 BA allowed. Kevin Gausman 1.49 ERA 0.766 WHIP and .157 BA allowed. Robbie Ray 3.35 ERA 1. 1.165128 WHIP and .230 BA allowed. Zack Greinke 3.56 ERA. 1.115 WHIP and .245 BA allowed. Lance Lynn 2.14 ERA 1.004 WHIP and .195 BA allowed. Last, I have a trade possibility in Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks. He has a 3.67 ERA 1.165 WHIP and .195 BA allowed. What do you think it would take to get Gallen in a trade?

Terry Ryan had an odd tenure in that, IMO, he was fairly effective in his first term (although he wouldn’t go after the finishing pieces, thereby, in effect wasting the value of Mauer and Morneau’s careers to the Twins. However his second term after Bill Smith was thoroughly awful with bad trade after bad trade, standing pat at trade deadlines. He always thought everything was all right when it clearly wasn’t. It reminded me of Jerry Krause I and II with the Bulls. Very effective then his second term was horrific!

I agree with you, Tom. I’ve watched seeming offseason apathy too many times to trust this front office. I, too, have lost faith in them. This last offseason was excruciatingly bad. It was probably worse than Miguel Sano hitting .185. They would absolutely have to acquire a #2 or #1 type starter in trade or free agency this off season. The best way to predict someone’s future actions is to look at their past actions. They’ve let White Sox management run circles around them. They’ve fallen short of several other FO’s body of work. They boldly claimed they were shooting for nothing less than a World Series. Not even close. I hate to say it but even though I’ve seen recent improvement in game management from Baldelli, overall I think he’s done a poor job, especially with pitchers. Case in point, this team’s way to frequent sloppy play. Most wouldn’t agree with me probably but I’d rather try to lure Jim Leyland out of retirement so that poor game management didn’t cost x amount of games.

I hope that Cruz retires a Twin. With him, it’s been a good run and if they can get the pitching fixed, he can still help. If I had to choose a deal, it would be the Oakland deal.

Yep. Bostock is my sentimental favorite as well. He played 60 games in LF in his banner 1977 season, one of the best offensive seasons in Twins history. His two full seasons were .323 and .336 with mega extra base hits. I wish Calvin had not been so penurious and I wish he had lived. I think he was so talented that he would have likely been a Hall of Famer. I’m a big time Lyman Bostock fan and a huge fan of that 1977 team. I have a memory of the first time I saw Bostock play with the Twins, in person, probably in Detroit - he hit a scorching liner down the third base line between the third baseman and the bag. I think it was the first at bat I ever saw him in person and I was stunned, thinking or saying, "Wow!".

One of my favorite catches in Twins history is the one that Allison made in the 1965 World Series.

I agree with Roger that we must extend Buxton, Berrios and Rogers. If not, a retool or a rebuild becomes that much more difficult in truly replacing those 3.

Good research! It looks like those 3 years were the only time when he was a regular LF. I had thought of Harmon as a 3B/1B but there it is in black and white!

Goslin was a triples machine and an RBI machine. Very impressive career!

I’ll change that to Wheeler. ?