Greglw3

New option todayJorge Soler!

I'll take a shot - consider that I started following the Twins as a little boy in 1964! C-Joe Mauer 1B Rod Carew 2B Chuck Knoblauch SS Carlos Correa 3B Harmon Killebrew LF Lyman Bostock CF Kirby Puckett RF Tony Oliva DH Larry Hisle Rotation: Blyleven, Santana, Jim Perry, Viola, Morris, D. Goltz J. Kaat Best defensive pitcher in Twins history: Jim Kaat Pen: Perranoski, Bill Campbell, Doug Corbett, Mike Marshall, Reardon, J. Nathan, Aguilera, Duran D. Chance (converted from SP for this squad) Bench: C. Tovar, S. Braun, D. Ford, G. Gaetti, Gagne, Brunansky, G. Adams

Amen, brother! And I watched Terry Felton pitch extensively at Toledo. He had a smoking fastball. I thought he was gonna be good in MLB.

2023 OPS+ Correa 94 Gallo 101 That comparison shows how wildly un-useful the new wave of metrics, advanced metrics, SABR stats are and a massive failure in lending any instructive insights into the game of baseball. Correa was 10,000 times the player Gallo was. Gallo’s season had to be one of the worst of all time. If one has followed baseball for many years and seen many average, good and great players the eye test is all you need. I’ll give an example from basketball. Luckily basketball hasn’t been afflicted with an avalanche of unscientific new stats like baseball but what f somebody told you that someone somewhere (like who’s responsible for OAA, Zone ratings and all these defensive stats and offensive stats that skew toward power hitters? Who created it? Who voted on all these stats saying, yes, these are more valuable than Terry Francona, Dick Bremer, Alex Rodriguez, Justin Morneau and Roy Smalley’s eye tests and scores of fans who have seen the 72-74 Oakland A’s play and the 75-76 Reds , the 35-5 Tigers, both generations of Orioles teams with stifling pitching. Seen Omar Vizquel, Ozzie Smith, Cal Ripken, Jason Bartlett, Greg Gagne, Carlos Correa, Freddie Patek, U.L Washington, Dave Concepcion and Bert Campaneris). Like everything else in life, experience matters. How could anybody be fooled by neophyte, gravely flawed statistics when the answer is right in front of their eyes. Back to my basketball analogy. I feel like people telling me that Outs above average and these other new defensive metrics that try to measure range and errors all in one, i.e. the unmeasurable - that Gio Urshela and Carlos Correa last year were below average because of OAA would be like (I lived in Chicago for 21 years) telling me that Michael Jordan was overrated. That his assists above average was never near the top of the league and that he was below average on defense because his field goals allowed by other team while he was on the floor and his 3 pt field goals allowed was below average. Don’t use the eye test! None other than Carlos Correa offered just one argument that demolishes OAA. He said, I’m playing for a primarily Flyball pitching staff. How in the world could he lead the league playing on a flyable pitching staff? More likely a poor fielder who plays behind a roundball pitching staff would lead the league in OAA. I read a description of how they get OAA and it was so convoluted and full of flaws that it was almost laughable. I mentioned how Bill James, in retrospect, wrote an article in late 2021 about another new stat that is very flawed. James gave a very logical presentation and concluded that WAR should be renamed WAG for Wild Ass Guess. I mentioned that to someone on Twitter and they just attacked James as a bitter old fart or something like that. But James is right. Well, I and every other Bulls and basketball fan used the eye test to judge Jordan. And for Scottie Pippin. Also for players like Magic Johnson, I used the eye test for Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell and Oscar Robertson. Lebron. Bird. All eye tests. Even in basketball, the most basic, unchallenged stat recently told basketball fans a little fib. The secret is Kareem Abdul Jabbar played when there was no 3 point rule. So, if you take away that extra point from Lebron, he’s likely way behind Kareem in baskets made. Correa made only 6 errors at SS this year. That’s historically low. The lowest Hall of Fame SS Ozzie Smith ever had in a season where he played 1144 or more innings is 8. I’ve always considered Ozzie Smith to be the best defensive SS of my lifetime. and he never matched Correa’s excellence at the only defensive stat that is a true empirical measurement of an observable event. Bottom line is Carlos Correa had a great defensive season. As far as I recall,I watched every game this year and my eye test says Correa is the best in baseball. One man’s opinion to mix in with all the others.

I agree. I really enjoyed the broadcast. I too am a Bulls fan so have become a big fan of Amin who is in very high demand as a broadcaster but makes the Bulls games a blast with his interaction with Stacy King. He does at least basketball, football and baseball, all very very well IMO. I seem to be in the minority but I thought Adam Wainright was a revelation. I thought he was refreshingly humble and very generous in his praise and excitement for what players for both teams were accomplishing. I rate him as fantastic on my first exposure to him. I’ve seen A.J. do other games and in this one, as in the others, he was knowledgeable, and unbiased either for or against the Twins. I liked the way Wainright picked up Julien taking a very close pitch and how impressed he was with that ability.

I agree with everything with the exception that I would go Maeda for 5, Ryan 2, Stewart, Duran in game 4. I like Ryan a lot but can’t ignore that he’s been pretty shaky for a while. But Ober, Lopez, Gray is great!

I wouldn’t downvote but bring up the fact he had plantar fasciitis, which is an extremely nasty and persistent injury. Assuming he doesn’t have plantar fasciitis for years 2-10 of his contract, I’d say he’s worth every penny. Further argument for that is that he lead the team in RBIs and still hit 18 HR. I think he’s better now that he has the ironic relief of the plantar fasciitis tearing.

STatcasts defensive numbers are worthless, IMO. For over 150 years it was known that there is no way of measuring the infinite array of subtleties that make a defensive player strong or weak. Range is one such non measurable talent. The best thing we’ve had is scouts with trained eyes who have been watching SSs or CF, or 2B for years. And that’s still the best thing. For anyone with a ton of experience watching baseball, or a Roy Smalley, Latroy Hawkins, Terry Francona or even anyone that watched all of the Twins games this year, they know that Correa had a sensational defensive season. It’d be like watching Jordan and then someone quoting a new stat that had not existed for 97% of basketball history and they say Jordan averaged -1 field goals per average defensively for his career. On what scientific principle is OAA, Zone ratings and all these other defensive metrics that have wildly counter-intuitive results based? If a SS like Correa, say, played in 2022 behind a fly ball staff, sure he’d have less outs than average. It’s what he does with the balls hit to him that count. it’s his judgement. And that rocket arm. His diving stops. His superior work in turning double plays. Coming from closer to 2nd base to field a slow roller and use his superior arm to miraculously throw out a runner. And using his veteran judgement to put on a play with the pitcher to pick off a runner at 2nd. That was a thing of beauty! He has the strongest arm of any SS I’ve ever seen play and I’ve been avid since the 64 Twins. How many hits did that save the year and how many DP turned just because of his rocket arm? No stat can say. One could say Correa average 90 mph on his throws to 1st and player B averaged 91. That would be fatally flawed too because on maybe 10% of the plays, he eases up based on his judgement that he doesn’t need to unleash the full fury of his usual blistering throws. I just feel a lot of distress for the fans that are being raised on these numbers. I think they’re really a crutch for those that don’t watch all or even most of the games. The bad habit has even seeped into some of the bloggers and baseball writers that write for somewhat respected publications. They’ve seen few of the Twins games but readily quote "advanced defensive metrics didn’t like Correa’s season. Advanced defensive metrics are like corporations. They have no heart and they have no soul. They are rote in only caring about 1 stat - profit turned above and beyond all other human considerations. I do feel a whole generation is being raised on a group of statistics that are entirely unprovable and wildly misleading. Everyone would be done a favor if the scouts 20-80 consensus came back into use rather than OAA, etc.

Walker Jenkins Very debatable but right now, Jenkins ceiling looks marginally higher or as high as Lee. He had a super rocket start. The name Lyman Bostock comes to mind. A very, very exciting prospect.Brooks Lee Is a .237 average in ST. Paul deserving of a downgrade? A late slump appears to misrepresent his value.Emmanuel Rodriguez Very tools!Austin Martin The perfect lauded A’s moneyball player, a high on base percentage is super valuable. His speed is a big bonus and I think he’ll hit for a pretty good average. Too many tools to ignore.DaShawn Keirsey Jr Kiersey has it all, a center fielder who hits for average, steals lots of bases and hits for moderate power. From footage I’ve watched he has a very beautiful looking swing.Luke Keaschall Keaschall’s bat looks even better than advertised.Simeon Woods Richardson July, August and September numbers are convincing and he’s very young and has the pedigree, Underrated here, I’m thinking but I could be wrong.Kala'i Rosario I like the high on base. And I like the power. I think the Twins should prioritize hitters who have plate discipline as measured by OBP across the board. I was very impressed with him in 2023 spring training.Yunior Severino I think his numbers are too strong to ignore, .500 at all the stops in ’22 and ’23. 35 HR. .898 OPS for the year.David Festa Festa still has more to prove to move up.Cory Lewis Deserving of a boosted ranking based on real performance in '23Marco Raya 5.28 at Wichita, even with small sample size modifies my view a bit.Charlee Soto ??????Brandon Winokur About the right place for Winokur. Looks like a genuine prospect.Tanner Schobel Unimpressive numbers at AA. I’m trusting your scouting here but have to move him down.Jair Camargo Watch out for Wilson Ramos part II, one of the stinker Twins trades.Jordan Balazovic Performance with Twins gave some hope.Jose Rodriguez Potential, perhaps a ways away.Yasser Mercedes The opposite of Prato but that .355 was a nice foundation. Question mark.Alerick Soularie 21 HR at two levels, the highlights I saw seemed to show an athletic player. I did some reshuffling based on my impressions of the prospects on film and accomplishment combined with age (see Simeon Woods Richardson).

I 100% agree with you. I’ve never seen such a concession of a game when tied in all my many years following baseball.

Lewis hurt his hammy trying to beat out a base hit. It was very clear. He aggravated it during the AB.

I concur completely! Better offense without Buxton and Gallo. If Buxton can get healthy, really healthy, in the future.....but his conditions seem chronic. It’d be great if he could play 150 totally 100% healthy

I decidedly do not believe in the WAR statistic. I agree with Bill James that it should be WAG for Wild Ass Guess. I don’t think Correa has had a bad year. For most of the year, he was sensational defensively. Just about as dominant as Buxton when he was hitting .160 some yrs ago. The batting average and plate discipline is disappointing but he still hit 18 HR as a SS and leads the team in RBIs. The problem may be that you believe in WAR more than RBIs and I believe in RBIs more than WAR. Justin Morneau has basically defended RBIs as important on air. I’d agree not Correa’s best season but still amazing when playing with a nasty case of plantar fasciitis. I don’t think you or I or probably even Rocco Baldelli understand why the injury affected his hitting and fielding radically differently. I know it didn’t affect that many hits-and-runs saving cannon of an arm.

Yes, it’s affected hs hitting but not his defense. Anybody can see that. And there are no SS in the minor leagues who are within 10,000 miles of Correa not any in MLB who are of the impact def. he is. Just his gun arm turns double plays no one else could turn and myriad close plays at 1st into outs. Plus radically low errors for a SS. The ANdrelton Simmons comparison is beyond absurd. I suspect you don’t watch all the games. As for Roy Smalley, it’s not just him but I saw Roy Smaley’swhole career w Twins, listen to him on TV and oh, the brilliant Gene Mauch who was listed as 25th greatest manager of all time is Roy’s Uncle. Roy was a SS and has a brilliant baseball mind.

Very little discussion here about Correa’s spectacular defense this year and please don’t quote me those totally absurd "advanced defensive metrics". Everyone who has watched all the games including Roy Smalley, scouts, announcers and fellow players know that Correa has been a huge defensive force.

I’d keep Gordon and grab Grichuk off waivers from the Angels and option or DFA Luplow and DFA Gallo

Yes! I remember Dear Mr. Fantasy although my first thorough and deeply satisfying immersion into Traffic was 'Low Spark of High Heel Boys'. What a great album, especially the title track was pure genius! I think I’ve definitely gravitated toward some of what I think is a really good AAA batch of hitters because the Twins hitting has been so bad this year, on balance. I remember listening to Herb Carneal through much of the 70’s and they would usually have a team batting average in the low .270s with guys like Carew, Braun, Holt, Oliva, Darwin then the incredible 1977 Twins who I want to say had a team batting average of .282. Compared to .239 this year. I saw some significant footage of DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. and he looks like he has a real nice swing like a Randy Bush, Jim Eisenreich or Edouard Julien. If I was them, I’d at least call him up in September. I still remember the episode of Coggins and Bumbry in Baltimore!

Rod Carew 1977 by a landslide.

Tell that to Julien, Lewis and Wallner. And Kirby Puckett who was hitting upper .230s to low .240s before his Gallup from Toledo to Twins when I lived in Toledo. My point is Joey Gallo is not the Major League either. Look up Rich Coggins and Al Bumbry who were called up by the Orioles when they were going nowhere and they both hit around .330, at least for awhile and the Orioles rallied big time.

Good point on Kirilloff if he can get his wrist/shoulder healthy for an extended period of time. I just wanted to get two talented hitters in with a shortage of positions. Yes, for right now, thus Buxton and Kirilloff displaced and I’m still not an overall believer in Kepler and surely not Gallo. I do like high average guys and high on-base guys (moneyball) mixed with a few power hitters and a Tony O type guy would count toward that.

I made this out for what would have most upside and current value. Buxton has been a big drag on the offense and he can’t plY in the field and majority of time injured. Will that change? I hope so.

With Julien, Wallner and Lewis breathing life into a listless offense recently, I thought ahead to the possibilities of even more help from St. Paul and a much more robust offense with several high on base guys mixed with power and potential high batting averages. Here’s what I came up with. 2B Julien .OBP .386 CF Martin OBP .377 3B Lewis AVg. .343 OBP .380 SS Correa All World Defense and 15 HR now is best I can do C Jeffers Protection for Correa RF Wallner OBP .341 SLG .523 LF B. Lee Potential high average and X Base hits 1B C Williams OBP .369 19 HR DH Prato Avg. .312 OBP .465 SLG .578 What do you think?

I’d be in favor of calling him up. He was impressive late last year.

It is a fact that Rocco has run out lineups recently with 5 hitters <= .234 and 7 hitters low .240s or below. So that would buttress your theory Mr. Gladden! The real question is why have we been carrying a .180ish hitter as a regular in the lineup all season?

While Souhan has a point, in that if the Twins get into the playoffs, its not unthinkable that they could get on a roll with Lopez, Gray, Maeda/Ober, maybe Ryan if he gets healthy. That analogy is good. Where the analogy isn’t so good centers around 2 key points and a minor one: 1- The Twins OF of Gladden, Puckett and Brunanskey was far superior to the low batting average OF of the 2023 Twins. I’d say the same about the IF of Gaetti, Smalley, Lombardozzi and Hrbek but Julian and Lewis are seriously mitigating that difference but still... You could even give the Catcher win to the 2023 Twins. 2- I think a lot of people are not aware of this but when the Twins clinched the division, they were 85-72, 13 games over .500. I followed that team extremely closely. At that pace they would have won 88 games. Might have won 90. TK decided to play virtual spring training lineups for ALL of the remaining 5 games. I must have been a cork sniffer 'cause I was very disappointed in that because I thought it would stain the reputation of a very good team, a possible 90 win team and it has. When he compares the 85 wins to the 84 wins, I call foul for the reasons described above. 3- The minor point is that Les Straker was not a horrible pitcher with around a 4.5 ERA and actually gave up 5 less hits than IP. Andy MacPhail did a better job of supplementing the bullpen than Falvey has although that could be arguable. The ERAs of the bullpen don’t blow one away but additions of Berenguer and Reardon were key. I’m not buying his article although I just read the start of it and your description of it. The Twins offense has been badly mismanaged both in the offseason and at the trade deadline. The bullpen, obviously lacking was not addressed. So, frankly Twins fans do have something to snoot about. Again, the mitigation is the astonishing ascendance of Julien and Lewis, who we knew was great. Counterbalancing that, the FO deserves credit for putting together a rotation of Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, Ober, Varland and I suppose Mahle, I feel like I might be missing somebody but the point is the same. I also feel that Rocco Baldelli has made big strides as a manager in several different areas, bunting, safety squeezing, stealing and platooning to help win games that the one-dimensional approach wouldn’t have. I was a critic of his but have to give him credit where credit is due. If things come together, as Lopez seems to be gathering more and more steam, Gray keeps his ERA around 3 and if Duran comes back strong and Jax pitches really well and even Pagan (that blow 'em away inning recently, good old country hardball, was extremely impressive and called to mind Goose Gossage and Mark Littel of the Royals. Maybe Ober or Maeda or Ryan steps up big as the 3rd cog, that’s the strength of Souhan’s argument.