Brandon

Well the formula shows he was a poor power hitter his first few years. It also shows he was a good one later on. as far as accuracy of the times is concerned. You be the judge. I just use that as a quick glance to evaluate how i think a player is doing in the power department. if you think there are more power hitting as a whole going on they you can change it to 1.1 or 1.25 or whatever you think is most representative. I just go by 1.0 because its less work. This formula is not meant to be an exact science. I like to use it when we talk about trade rumors. I just look at the XBH ave when i hear what kind of player/ prospect we are talking about.

What exactly is this and what does it mean? Well This is an over simplistic formula I use when looking at a power hitters performance. You are basically looking to see if the total number of extra base hits = a .100 batting average. You don’t even have to do the full math just know if it’s going to be more or less or on par, making it real easy to calculate. And its more fun right now then examining the Twins season this year! I realize there are better stats like slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+ but if I want to take a quick look without doing a lot of analyzing I can always do a quick glance at how many extra base hits does the power hitter have vs every 10 At Bats on the season. I noticed that an average power hitter will typically have 1 extra base hit for every 10 At Bats on the season meaning if the player has 300 At Bats this season they have 30 extra base hits they are an average power hitter. If a power hitter has fewer than 1 per 10 AB then the power is slumping so to speak, regardless of whether or not the player is hitting for average. The more extra base hits per 10 AB over 1 the better the power is showing this year. Let’s look at a few examples for fun: This year on our Twins team we have Escobar who has 49 extra base hits in 303 At Bats which is a crazy high ratio that’s 1 for every 6 At Bats or 50% more than an average power hitter or 2010 Justin Morneau before concussion territory see example further down this article. Rosario has 43 XBH in 328 AB for about 1 per 7.6 AB still 31% better than average ratio which is great. Kepler seems to be slumping in average, but he has 28 XBH in 283 At Bats which is average and why we are still holding out hope that he can get his average up and be a solid not great hitter. Dozier has 30 XBH in 322 AB. So, he is only slumping a little from average power production especially after losing that home run yesterday, but a lot from last year when he went 68 in 617 At Bats or the year before when he had 82 in 615 AB. Dozier is still flashing some power so if he goes on a nice little extra base binge of say 7 or 8 extra base hits in his next 45-50 AB he would be back to normal and probably looking like a little better trade chip. Morrison is at 21 XBH in 243 AB. This is why his production has been frustrating, because the power is below average as well as his average. If he had say 30 XBH and a .200 average, you would feel better about his production and feel like it’s a matter of time till his average come up some. But he is also slumping in the power department as well. This season Grossman is at 15 XBH in 212 AB which is way below acceptable for someone not hitting for average and getting on base at a high rate. 2 years ago he hit 31 XBH in 332 AB which is average power hitter with a high on base average and a big part of why he was kept around. Last year he went down a little 32 XBH in 382 AB and with a .360 on base average this is good production out of a back up player. But this season he is slumping in both on base and power and will not likely be back after this season. If you want to rehash bad memories you can go back and see that David Ortiz hit 53 XBH in 412 AB the season before we released him and he went to the Redsox…. We can also look at a few careers: Torii Hunter had 890 XBH in 8857 career AB. That is a career average power hitter. Justin Morneau had 619 XBH in 5699 AB or if you want to look at before his concussion in 2010. He was at 410 XBH in 3485 AB and had 44 XBH in 296 AB in his 2010 season which is around 1.5 XBH per 10 AB or 50% more than an average slugging season. Kirby Puckett had 678 XBH in 7244 AB but he was catching up career wise from such an awful start in his career when he had 17 XBH in 557 AB his first season and his second season wasn’t that much better either. Also you will be able to notice that his average is a bigger reason he was considered over 20% better than average hitter on OPS over his career than his power numbers. (other stats point that out as well, just saying this does too). Anyway I thought this is something that I have observed throughout the years and thought I would share my little system for quick glancing power numbers. Have fun with this and share thoughts and stuff below.

When the new prospect list comes out, will the top 20 list here get updated to the new list?

Addison Reed came to Minnesota cause its closer to his wifes family. Being 500 miles or less most of the time is better than 2000 right?

Another arguement for extending him is he may prefer to stay here. Isnt he from Missourri? Thats not too far away. His other options would be Kansas city, Chicago's and St. Louis maybe Cleveland, Detroit, or Cincinnatti if he wants to be closer to home...

This is a good article and i think its funny that I was trying to think how much it would cost to do a three year extention for him. We are in a competetive window and I do expect to have Buxton and Sano back next season and Polanco all season. I came up with Year 1 at 9 million Year two and three at 13 - 15 million and maybe a split option where the Twins can pick up a 4th year at 15/16 million or Gibson can exercise a player option at 6-9 million with a buyout..... With Berrios and Romero from the farm and Odorizzi and Pineda with Mejia, Slegers, Littell, Gonsalvez, May, Kohl Stewart? And maybe Lewis Thorpe among others as crazy good depth. Graterol may be ready by the end of next season... Until Pineda shows he still has it, its good to have replacements ready just in case.

How many starters are above Jorge? Sledgers, Mejia, Gonsalvez, Romero, Kohl Stewart, Thorpe with others including Graterol comming along too. That is why Jorge was DfAd. Not saying it was the right move just we have depth there. He is comming back from injury so now is the best time to try to sneak him through waivers.

No i am saying we do not have any established replacements at C. Garver is not hitting much and the other guy is not hitting at all. There are C out there who will not cost much to aquire due to contract status Morrison is not fully breaking out of his slump / Mauer may not have much left in the tank. So haveing someone else come in at DH / 1B is a good idea. Polanco and Buxton are almost back. That would be 4 hitters in the lineup being upgtaded over what is out there now. That would give us our best chance as we would have Kepler and the Eds and hopefully Dozier can turn it up some and our lineup goes back to being solid top to bottom.

So lets just focus on the negativity and toss the positives. If we do that then, the author is a horrible writer...I am a horrible career person, .....everyone fails. My personal evaluation of Molitor is he has gotten alot out of players, he does overuse some of his pen, but for this season Molitors biggest fault is the collapse of the offense to injury, suspension and slumps. Baserunning blunders are annoying but I bet they go down when there is less pressure to make things happen because the rest of the lineup can pick up its share of the slack. The players seem to respect Molitor and i think he has done the best with what he has. My beef is the front office not going out and trading for a C and maybe a new DH / 1B to help fill holes in the offense.

If we are not going to get a good return on trades for prospects, why sell? are you wanting to gun for draft position? is that a fun way to go for the summer when we should have a competitive team day in and day out? (that is when Buxton and Polanco returns, we find a hitting C and Morrison picks up or we replace him with someone who does.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The pitching is slightly better than league average. Our offense has cratered for all kinds of reasons from injury, suspension, to needing a redo. 2 of our offensive pieces are comming back. We can literally sign a player to push our .190 hitting DH for league minimum. We can aquire a C for a prospect probably a B-\C+prospect. We have lots of those. If we can turn it around with that, GREAT! It will turn around into a fun season. If not we can sell at the end of July/ August lots of time to give up. Yes our odds arent great, but they are not zero either. But i guess some just like to quit without trying.

Everyone gets an opinion. Some of us are smart enough to diagnose why we are loosing and figure potential fixes. While they may or may not work being defeated at this point makes me wonder why that person would bother to be a fan at all if they give up at the first sign of struggle to the top. They must be french...

The Twins are where they are because they lost 4 or 5 starting players for various reasons 1. Buxton to slump, headaches, slump, and broken toe. He should be back very soon 2. Polanco suspension and finger slam in door. Should be back soon too. 3. Castro out for season we could use a low cost veteran like texas C or Ramos. They shouldnt cost too much to get either. 4. Sano replaced by Escobar but Sano may be back. 5. Morrison is still hitting under .200. There are a few options out there if he cant start hitting soon. There were 2 potential DH released this year hanley Ramirez is one of them. He can go to AAA for a few weeks and he shows he can hit he should be better than what Morrison has been. 6. Mauer has been affected by concussions and is back. We will see if he can go back to hitting. So a new C and DH with Polanco and Buxton comming back and hopefully Sano we might be able to make a run out of this season yet. The pitching is good enough. And plus this is likely a buyers market so we dont have anything to gain by selling. We are not likely to get premium prospects if we do sell. "Might as well win the whole "F"ing thing."

Im still of the opinion that we just need to be able to tread water a few more weeks. We do need to win the next two against Texas but we will have Buxton and Polanco back very soon. With Mauer, Dozier, and Kepler in supporting offense and the Eds producing we will only have a hole at DH and C in the lineup so as long as Buxton is ready to hit the lineup has the potential to improve. The pitching is solid. Not worried about keeping Belisle at this point he is going in low leverage situations anyways and will be gone soon id the runs continue to pile up on his record. So once we have all but Sano back, what will it take to get the offensive light turned on?

Lets start with whats wrong with the offense. 2B Dozier is slumping SS Polanco was suspended but will be back im two/three weeks and his replacement has actually been ok, Adriannza with a .725 ish OPS. This looks bad because we need bats so bad but he is about a league average bat with good defense and baserunning... DH Morrison slumping with power and average. C Castro Injured and out for the season 3B,1B,DH Sano lost and in A Ball to loose weight and regain batting swing. CF Buxton slumping and injured. RF Kepler and Grossman. Both are not far from being productive. Both need improvements in average. 3 things need to occur to fix the offense. 1. Buxton needs to come back with an .800-.850 OPS minimum. 2. Either Morrison or Dozier or both need to decide to step up and hit .800-.850 OPS minimum 3. C is as close to an automatic out as can be. We need a hitter who can have a .750 OPS and we probably need to aquire him. Tampa has this guy and we can probably trade for him. Or Garver has to step up and decide to hit. If these three things happen our lineup will score a lot more. Bonus. I think we will see a Sano that is 15-20 lbs lighter and ready to go come August 1-15th ish...

I like Jim Kaats idea of making games 7 innings instead of 9. That takes care of pace of play problem and keeps starting pitchers relevant.

If Sano, Morrison, Dozier, Polanco, and Buxton were hitting like they were supposed to then the Twins would be superior to Cleveland as we have more balanced pitching. Here's to hoping we have all this in the second half of the season.

Notice i said most. All the other pitchers mentioned in the article were around 4 walks per 9 innings.

I agree with Nygard in that around 2500 pitches Romero should be closely watched. Maybe a 10 DL stint or maybe 4 or 5 starts in a row with an 80 pitch limit so his arm can have a breather, but if he has 190 innings going into the World Series....i think he can handle one more start.

I think a few weeks is fine to see how Belisle and the Twins do before the trade deadline where there could be several bullpen jobs available and several minorleagers brought up then. Most of the AAA relievers need to work on control anyway as around 4 walks per 9 innings is too many.

both Adrianza and Grossman are putting up the same power numbers as last year and walk rates are similar too. The only thing dragging these two numbers down from last year is about 30 to 50 points in their batting averages.

A draft is successful if 2-3 players can make it to the majors and stay up a while. So as long as we get 1 regular and a bench player, I wont complain. Maybe we get lucky and we get a third or fourth player too.....

For the next month Gordon should be up here playing. There are too many holes in the lineup not to have him up. There is no extra place for Gonsalves at the moment. If Lynn continues to pitch better and we dont improve our standings then he could be traded....but Santana and May will be back by then...if Rooker is ready Morrison is replaceable so nothing blocking him from comming up to mash...

We have several holes in our offebse due to injuries and slumps. IMO the best things we can do is call up Rupp and Gordon. If we want to go for more lowcost help we can trade for KC 3B Moustakas. I doubt he would cost much in terms of prospect capital. The only other thing is to bring up Wade to start in OF in place of Buxton.

You should add a 16th player cause i doubt Romero remains a prospect much longer.