Riverbrian

I think we need a JD Martinez sized bat and it was what I was hoping for this off-season. JD isn't my first choice because he would choke up the DH spot and I'd rather let players rotate through the DH spot. I also don't like the uptick in K's last year that he had. I'd like to see less K's this season so Solar interested me more... But.. Yeah... I'd like a JD Martinez sized bat because that is what you do when you have your depth in place. You add to the top of the pile. 3 Platoons ever feasible... I say no but there are teams besides the Twins that disagree with me and some are teams that I really respect. The Dodgers - Margot, Taylor and Rojas will probably work the Short Side for Heyward, Muncy and Lux. Lux is young... I don't think they should do that but they probably will... The Dodgers are the same team that created Joc Pederson from his humble beginnings of highly ranked prospect. It's hard to argue what the Dodgers have done over the years and they platoon hard. Giants will platoon 3 without a doubt... they always do. The Rays will... they always do. Who Else? The Nats might but I don't think anyone else will do it to the extreme of the Twins, Dodgers, Giants and Rays. The Twins have joined a small group. In the Twins case... Like you said... Castro is up the middle important and on top of that... Castro isn't really a sensible platoon option for the short side because of his splits. However...the Twins will have to force Castro into the role of facing left handers because they haven't shown the inclination to force the young left handed hitters to hit left handers. Just get a Martinez sized bat who can hit both arms. It's better than strip mining players for the little bits of resources that they provide.

You are one of the sharpest posters on this website. I'm not going to dispute any of your above post because you know what you are talking about. I think you and I are pretty close to the same page. The post you originally responded to from me was an attempt to lay out the roster like the Twins might do using full consideration of how they operated last year with the extreme platooning of Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner. You ask should they really roster three short side platoon players? My answer to that: No... I don't want them to roster one short side platoon player because it's a waste of a roster space. I want them to train, develop and acquire hitters who can hit both left handers and right handers. Short side platoons only last for a second or two anyway because injuries are going to force them into the lineup against right handers anyway. I think starving a young hitter of the opportunity face lefthanders is a development crime. I understand why they are doing it... it's a crime nonetheless. However... no matter what I think... based on how they worked the lineup last year... I think that that they will roster three short side platoon players because Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner are still on the roster which tells us all that they will need 3 of them for the 3 of them. That leads me to believe that Goodrum or Miranda are the front runners unless an acquisition is made like Michael A. Taylor. It could be Austin Martin but Austin can be make his major league debut down the road. Goodrum and Miranda have made their debut but once again... this isn't what I would do... this is what I think they will do. On the topic of Santana... In my opinion... His numbers will pinball because all numbers pinball... his pinballing will just be done at a lower range than what he was doing in his prime. You are right that his career numbers are misleading and they shouldn't be reflective of his current status. However... his OPS while consistently better against left handers has pinballed upward against both arms consistently in the past three years. OPS Against Right Handers. 2021 - .636 2022 - .655 2023 - .727 OPS against left handers 2021 - .718 2022 - .789 2023 - .807 Even at .727 against RH in 2023... That .727 would rank 8th on the team against RH (Using Career Stats for everyone else). Incidentally 7th would be Larnach but there is no room for Larnach because he would become the 4th member of the 26 man roster who needs to be taken out against left handers. Remember this is how the team operates... not how I want them to operate. There is only enough space for 3 left handers that need to be removed against lefties and Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner have those spots. Just like you said... A short side platoon for Larnach kicks him off the roster. Bottom Line and I think you agree with this... Since 75% of pitchers throw from the right side... Wouldn't it be great... Wouldn't it be amazing... If we could roster a bunch of hitters who could hit that 75% and that could include Larnach. All you have to do is let your lefties hit against lefties for that other 25%. They get better at it and we are loaded for bear 75% of the time. My favorite part of your post was this sentence: Why not give them until after the all star break to show if we really need this limited use bat? I could not agree more... I have been screaming for this for years. You have until the trade deadline to gather fresh data to determine what you need at the trade deadline for the stretch run. Use that time to determine who is hitting and who isn't. If they are hitting you don't need at the trade deadline... if they are not... well... now you need at the deadline. Not letting Julien hit lefties into July... you have answered the question before the question is asked. You know you need a right handed hitting handcuff for him because you refuse to operate unless there is one. Need hasn't been fairly determined yet. Always enjoy our discussions. You know what you are talking about.

Wise? Absolutely not. I believe the past is the past and I also believe individual stats tend to pinball up down and sideways from time period to time period. I don't believe that 2023 was the new struggling Correa walking through the door and 2023 is what Correa will be from here on out. I believe... (I pray)... that Correa will rebound to Correa makes us happy levels in 2024. Will he rebound to 2022 levels (significantly larger success against left handers) or 2021 level (equal stats against right handers and left handers) or some other version of overall acceptable numbers. For this particular exercise. I prefer the larger sample to one year smaller samples especially in regards to stats versus left handers and in the case of Santana or Goodrum... I wasn't going to choose an arbitrary time period according to me. So... career in all it's glory was what I used. It looks like we are light versus left handers in comparison to versus right handers. To be honest... I only did it based on Twins utilization that I think they take too far. It is my opinion that If Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner are on the roster... the Twins will need 3 players to replace them versus left handers. If Larnach gets the last spot... then we will need 4 players to replace them versus LH. Castro's numbers don't support being a platoon partner from the right side but may have to be shoe horned in. It sure looks like we are short on the vs. left hander side of the coin. Bring back a player like Michael A. Taylor or look at your roster... and that leaves you with Goodrum or Miranda?

Barring No Injury and Barring No Acquisitions - If Rocco operates the same as last year with the strict adherence to the left/right platoon split. Niko Goodrum will break camp with the club due to strong career numbers against left handers and better positional flexibility. Handcuffs will be: Julien/Farmer - Wallner/Castro - Kirilloff/Goodrum or Miranda. Santana will play against both hands. The Twins are decent shape (8 deep against right handed pitching). It's against left handers where they fall short (6 deep and 6 deep with the inclusion of either Goodrum or Miranda. This is all based on the assumption that the Twins will once again try to keep the sanctity of their heavy platoon strategy. It wouldn't be my strategy but I assume that the Twins will not use mine and go with theirs instead. My guess is that if the Twins are still shopping... It will be for someone strong against left handers. Here are the Career Splits for every Twins Player with Major League Stats OPS Career Splits vs RH: Wallner - .949 Lewis - .939 Julien - .898 Correa - .805 Kepler - .790 Kirilloff - .769 Buxton - .765 Santana - .773 Larnach - .741 Castro - .696 Jeffers - .695 Miranda - .680 Vazquez - .665 Farmer - .657 Goodrum - .644 OPS Career Splits vs LH: (Under 100 AB's) Correa - .859 Jeffers - .840 Farmer - .825 Lewis - .825 (59 AB's) Santana - .819 Goodrum - .816 Buxton - .774 Miranda - .774 Vazquez - .735 Castro - .690 Kepler - .649 Kirilloff - .630 Larnach - .569 Julien - .447 (46 AB's) Wallner - .442 (59 AB's) Starting lineup vs Right Handers based on career splits: Wallner - LF Lewis - 3B Julien - 2B Correa - .SS Kepler - .RF Kirilloff - 1B Buxton - .CF Santana - DH Jeffers/Vazquez - C Extras: Farmer - Goodrum - Castro Starting lineup vs Lefthanders based on Career Splits: Correa - .SS Jeffers/Vazquez - C Farmer - 2B Lewis - 3B Santana - 1B Goodrum - DH Buxton - CF Castro - LF Kepler - RF Extras: Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner

Well Sir Sonny Gray had a 5.69 ERA in 2016. Sonny Gray had a 4.90 ERA in 2018. Justin Verlander had a 4.84 in 2008 and 4.54 in 2014. Do you think you won't find 7 game stretches of sub standard pitching during the career of any well respected major league starter?

Good post and you may be absolutely correct but my guess is that what you are describing is true of almost any pitcher. Good pitchers don't pitch in the zone... they pitch out of the zone and try to get batters to swing at crap. If hitters can lay off the pitches that the pitcher wants the batter to swing at... lay off that out pitch that a pitcher possesses... that best pitch in the repertoire. If hitters can do that... they become hittable. The good pitchers are able to get batters to swing at crap more often. I'd put Joe Ryan in that good pitcher group.

61 Starts with the Twins. I have only missed a couple of them. There are two things that those 61 starts have taught me. 1. I have no idea what makes his fastball special but it appears to be special. 2. There is no way you can watch his 61 starts and not come away with some confidence in his ability. He's a good pitcher who had a bad stretch last year. Injury caused the bad stretch? I don't know but it was a bad stretch. His ERA was 2.98 before the bad stretch. Before the bad stretch - ERA's On June 22nd last year Gray - 2,56 Ober - 2.83 Ryan - 2.98 Lopez - 4.40 Varland - 5.30 If it wasn't for the bad stretch... we wouldn't be having this conversation. If Pablo Lopez wouldn't have pitched great post all-star break and so superbly in the playoffs... we might be having a similar Pablo Lopez conversation instead of him making top ten lists. Recency bias is an amazing thing. Baseball has ups and downs, ebbs and flows. The light goes up and down... don't you notice how the wheel goes round. Joe Ryan has earned that MLB Badge for his sleeve.

In baseball... "young" in the original post would be more based upon experience and not age. Correa is 29 with 8 years of service time. That guy is old. Ober is 28 with 2 years of service time. That guy is young. When I make my major league debut this year at age 58. I will be wet behind the ears.

Girl don't lie, just to save my feelings Girl don't cry, and tell me nothing's wrong Girl don't try to make up phony reasons I'd rather leave than never believe If this is it, please let me know

I never use the word fear because I'm afraid of it.

That's only because I'm too lazy to type additional names like Kirilloff and Wallner plus I struggle with if a dash is necessary when typing left handed and I'm unsure about the spelling of development.

The glove typically doesn't have much to do with platoon splits but I see what you are saying. It's easier to absorb struggling against left handers if the glove is saving some runs. I'm not anti-defense... I get the significance of the extra out given due to a bad defensively play or lack of range and I get the significance of the out that was taken away by extraordinary defense. However... my opinion is that the majority of balls in play are routine plays. So I believe that routineness will minimize the defensive value because it would create a huge pile of average defensive players. Again... I'm not minimizing the importance of robbing someone of a hit or that boot at a key moment but I think defense is over run by routine. Ultimately we need to use the early regular season up to the trade deadline to determine what we need at the trade deadline or if we are merely sellers, identify who we trust for the stretch run of a pennant chase in September and determine which horses we are going to go with in the playoffs. We also need to use the regular season for preparation through exposure. If someone gets hurt... can Julien play 1B. Get him prepped through some exposure. If a couple of right handers get hurt and we need Julien to face left handed pitching... get him prepped through some exposure. The glove... that gets prepped through exposure as well. I watched Julien get better last year. He started rough and was decent toward the end of the year.

As far as I can tell... Thus Far... There isn't a Julien/Kelenic comp other than young, developing and left handed. Julien produced excellent numbers against right handers right out of the gate. Kelenic fell flat against right and left out of the gate so Julien's splits are more dramatic but utilization is also much much more dramatic as well. You are right... The Twins were the absolute worst in the league with left handed hitters facing left handed pitchers. .589 OPS (29th). 187 Batting Average (30th). 21st in Plate Appearances Left vs Left with 351 and that kind of shocks me but I suppose it's a by-product by having more left handers on the roster than other clubs. I don't know if force feeding is what I'm asking for... but it could be construed that way because development and preparation for the unknown are my primary concerns and it's a short walk from my concerns to force feeding. Development is easy to understand... Preperation for the unknown is a little more complicated but it's almost as important... the Twins were inches from being down two right handed hitters entering the playoffs which would have put their backs against the wall in the playoffs by having to play a left handed hitter against left handed pitching. Force feeding them preparation for that possible moment may not solve the issue but I will certainly feel better when Julien has to face Framber Valdez because there is nobody else if he had at least faced someone like Framber Valdez... successfully or not. You never know what you need until you need it. It'll be interesting to see what the Twins do with their left handers this year. More of the same or are opportunities increased.

Getting off the splits. Kelenic is also an interesting compare and contrast with Brooks Lee. Both were highly ranked prospects. Both were promoted aggressively through the system. Differences were that Kelenic had to deal with the 2020 covid year and Kelenic was a high school draft pick while Lee entered pro ball older drafted out of college. They have similar minor league numbers at the A and AA level. Although... Kelenic really only had a cup of coffee at AA probably due to the 2020 covid shutdown which may have accelerated his timeline since he appeared in AAA the following year. A+ Kelenic - 190 PA's - .838 OPS Lee - 114 PA's - .848 OPS AA Kelenic - 92 PA's - .857 Lee - 407 PA's - .839 Once they hit AAA... Kelenic started in AAA before his call up to the majors in May. Kelenic claimed that he didn't start the season with the Mariners because he refused to sign an extension and of course a May call up does suggest the possibility of service time manipulation. To compile those 143 PA's. Kelenic did a month in AAA in April and a month or so in June after he was sent down because he wasn't very good in the majors in 2021. Kelenic - 143 PA's - 1,016 OPS Lee - 168 PA's - .731 OPS Kelenic has an additional year of AAA time in 2022 since 2021 didn't work out that well in the majors. 394 PA's with a .922 OPS. Why am I comparing them... I am certainly not claiming that a similar fast arc will crash and burn in the majors like it did with Kelenic. These are two different individuals after all and very few things are linear in the game of baseball. But... can we at least and look what happened with Kelenic who has really nothing to prove in the minors and still everything to prove in the majors. Can we at least take note that the Mariners burned two options and 1.169 years of service time with sub par play (Last year was decent) before he was basically traded to the Braves in order for Atlanta to take on the salary the Mariners were dumping via Marco Gonzales and Evan White totaling around 20 million. The Braves didn't want Marco Gonzalez. Atlanta traded Marco to the Pirates along with Cash two days later for a PTNBL.

Consistency is a hard thing to locate in baseball. If I had to guess... his splits will pinball. Who knows how his splits will present in 2024. His splits were fine last year but his splits were not good in 2022 and 2021... Small Sample Size all of them but the overall point is letting him work through it. The Mariners did and the Braves are going to continue. You are right about the Braves... they really don't have a right handed option to platoon Kelenic if they wanted to platoon him. It is absolutely fair to point out that Anthopoulus making those comments is kind of like the guy telling you that he has decided to start walking to work when the truth is that he sold his car.

He certainly did but to be fair... Kelenic didn't really hit right handers either. Both sides were a learning curve for him. I find it interesting that his favorable splits against left handers didn't happen until Seattle actually started holding him out of the lineup against left handers. Watch the proportion walk itself down. 2021 38% 143 Pa's against LH - .490 OPS 234 PA's against RH - .695 OPS 143 PA's total in the Minors 2022 32% 59 PA's against LH - .587 OPS 122 PA's against RH - .426 OPS 394 PA's total in the minors 2023 22% 92 PA's against LH - .774 OPS 324 PA's against RH - .748 OPS 43 PA's total in the minors. For comparison in 2023 The Seattle Mariners 2023 faced a left hander 26% of the time. Julien 2023 11% Freeman led all left handers in plate appearances last year and was 3rd overall so this guy is facing everyone. His percentage was 30% in 2023. It's almost like the Mariners force fed him extra lefties in the beginning and walked him down to taking some left handers away from him. I don't think I've found anything in the Curious Case of Jered Kelenic. Just interesting proportions year over year in the Kelenic saga as I renew my complaint against the extreme mothering of young Julien.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/braves-jarred-kelenic-in-line-for-everyday-at-bats/#:~:text=Atlanta president of baseball operations,Brien of The Athletic reports. I attach this link for discussion purposes. It's a pet topic of mine. I think that young players need to develop. I don't like the extreme platooning that we do. Every case is different so case by case I understand but here is a major league GM with the opinion that "Atlanta feels that giving Kelenic regular work versus lefties will be the best way for him to improve".

I'd assume it would be like the Byron Buxton extension. Escalators based on AB's. MVP Bonuses. I think Royce is a superstar but he has had major injury issues since 2019 that should make any front office pause on the extension talk until you have a couple of years of 500 plus AB's.

I will give this team a chance to prove themselves just like I do every year. I have off-season concerns... I had off-season concerns last year and the year before that. However... no matter my concerns... it will not prevent me from giving this team and every player on it the chance to prove themselves. Including Kepler who I would have cut last June.

#1. Even if Polanco was still on the team... there wouldn't be a log jam. Even if you substitute Brooks Lee for Polanco... there still isn't a log jam. I have never seen a log jam... if I ever see a log jam... Clear your schedule for playoff baseball in October because the Twins would be bullet proof and log jams are good things. If you ever have a log jam... it's not a problem... it's a good thing. Here is how you handle a log jam. Just remove the word BENCH from your head, quit thinking about who is on the BENCH, quit saying the word BENCH, let the manager figure out how to get all of these wonderful players into the lineup and clear your schedule for playoff baseball because in order to have a log jam... all the logs have to be kicking rear end to make the manager have to think about who should be in the lineup and if you have 6 players kicking rear end for 5 positions (Yeah 5... we have the DH Spot to work with)... EVERYBODY WILL PLAY and EVERYONE WILL PERFORM so it doesn't matter who is in the lineup. You have a log jam it's all good. . If the miracle actually occurs that all 6 players stay healthy for 162 games and somehow someway all 6 players perform at all star level. Just do the math and get a good night sleep free from log jam worry. Here's the math for you: 5 Spots x 162 games / 6 players = 135 games. Oh No... Carlos Correa only plays 135 games... what a travesty. Well... it doesn't matter if Correa only plays 135 games because Mr. Farmer is playing just as well so whoever Rocco puts in the lineup in June vs the Kansas City Royals is going to be a great player. You got a great player in the field and a great player resting. WHAT'S the PROBLEM? #2. Brooks Lee is NOT HERE YET. Yes his rise through the system has been impressive. Yes he is the 18th ranked prospect in MLB. I will bet on Brooks Lee becoming a quality Twin in the future but it's important to note that Brooks Lee is NOT HERE YET. He has 706 Plate Appearances total in the Minors to the tune of an .814 OPS. He has spent 168 of those Plate Appearances at the AAA Level to the tune of a .237 BA and .731 OPS. Can we just please for the love of God... Let him show he can hit at AAA before we starting clearing logs out of the way for him and please please keep in mind two very important points. #2A. Brooks doesn't need to be placed on the 40 man roster until December of 2025. If you call him up early you will start his clock early and he will be a free agent early. You are rushing him up to the big leagues while he as a .237 BA and .731 OPS in 168 AB's. #2B. IF YOU HAVE A LOG JAM... Why do you have to call up BROOKS LEE? Correa, Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff, Santana and Farmer are all healthy and getting the job done. You can argue that they may be getting the job done but Brooks Lee is going to be better. Well if Brooks Lee is better... then you don't have a log jam... you have a player performing better than someone else and that means that LOGS are not JAMMED because the player who is not as good doesn't play as much. This is so easily solved. #3. As of right now... we don't have a DH. There is no Nelson Cruz on the roster and Buxton is telling the world that he will be playing CF. This will allow the team to rotate players through the DH position and that is good because we have the depth to rotate logs in this so called jam through the position and therefore additional AB's. #4. Kirilloff can play OF and so could Lewis. If Lewis and his agent are insistent on every day at 3B... I'd tell him tough cookies. That isn't helping the team... that's handicapping a manager in regards to putting the best lineup in the field. I'd simply point at Mookie Betts in Dodger Blue and tell him that Mookie Betts plays where ever the team needs him to play. I'd tell him that it's good for him because being capable in multiple positions will increase the number of teams bidding for his services when he reaches free agency. Instead of just the teams looking for a 3B driving up the price... teams looking for a SS, 2B and OF will also be in play and more teams interested will drive up the price and he will get paid more. Locking yourself into a single position isn't good business. Players can play multiple positions. If you don't think so... you haven't been watching players around the league move from position to position just like water flows into low spots on the ground. Flexibility is a by-product of depth or a LOG JAM. There are 8 spots outside of catcher and 11 positions players... there is not a back up for every position. Players have to be flexible if THEY WANT PLAYING TIME. If your team does not have flexibility it is because you don't have a log jam. #5. Julien did not face left handers last year. Julien was pinch hit for against left handers entering the game in the 5th inning. Don't get me wrong... I am a big fan of Julien and I absolutely hated that Julien wasn't allowed to face left handers last year. Yet... we sit here on February 15th, 2024 and there is a large group of people who seem to forget that Julien did not face lefthanders last year. I know they have forgotten this and I know that they don't seem to think it matters because they were willing to say goodbye to Polanco over log jam concerns and have Julien ready to go for 162 games. #5A. If it turns out that Julien can't hit lefthanders and he isn't picking it up over time. Guess what... you will have to pour those poor stats against left handers into his overall stats. That .839 OPS will no longer be an .839 OPS when you add 150 AB's of a .446 OPS against left handers to his totals. That OPS is going to plummet to the point where some of our posters are going to wonder what happened to Julien. #6. Players get hurt. They get hurt every year without fail. They get hurt for 10 day stints... they get hurt for month stints... they get hurt for entire seasons. Thank You for your time. I'll sit back and wait for the next LOG JAM comment on Twins Daily which is sure to come in the near future.

Oops Sorry... I forgot that Farmer and Vazquez are not on the roster to pay for Hoskins based on my crazy ideas. So... Injuries? Wallner, Castro, Martin and Camargo. With Martin and Camargo as talents that possibly can produce league average and hopefully better or exchanged for someone else with options remaining.

Exactly. What I can't get out of my head is... If we get what I believe Correa, Buxton and Lewis SHOULD DO next year. Imagine the lineup if you add a Hoskins for example to it. For example purposes... I kept Polanco because I don't think we should have let him go. Julien DH Lewis 3B Polanco 2B Hoskins 1B Buxton CF Kepler RF Correa SS Kirilloff LF Jeffers C Injuries? OK... We still have Wallner who can be mixed in for pretty regular playing time even if everyone stays healthy, Castro who can play every position, Farmer across the infield so they can both get regular AB's and Vazquez plus the replacements in AAA that are starting to bubble up. But... If you go into the playoffs with that lineup healthy with Correa, Lewis and Buxton doing what they are capable of. That lineup will compare with what the Rangers used to bash their way to title overcoming injured so-so pitching. That type of lineup can overcome a downtick from the pitching staff and I believe the downtick is coming... regardless if Desclafini is on the roster or not.

Good Post... No argument from me On Vazquez: I understand why they did it. A. Catching is always an over pay in terms of offensive production anyways. B. Vazquez has typically been a better hitter in years past in comparison to what he delivered for us last year. C. Jeffers was coming off a not so impressive year so confidence in Jeffers was probably not as high it could be. D. I assume that we had money earmarked for Correa that could be spent once he signed with the Giants. However... When it comes to catching... I have never waivered from the opinion that you develop it from the ground up and avoid paying the price to sign it or trade for it because Catchers are always expensive over pays that don't play every day and managers will sacrifice offense for defense at the position. And if you are able to develop a catcher like we have done with Jeffers. I'm ok trading it away because other teams will over pay for it and you keep production line chugging so you can trade the next over valued catcher away. Catcher production can keep your organization stocked if you can produce it. On Hoskins: Yep... The bigger they are... the harder they fall. Injuries and poor performance with bigger contracts are a bigger problem because you are putting one big egg in that basket. However... when it comes to what we are talking about. The odds are better with that one big egg not laying an egg and if they do lay a Robinson Cano sized egg... that level of expected production wasn't going to be replaced anyway and you are back to the same discussion. Are you better off with Prato performing average or below average or Adam Frazier performing average or below average. I'll always go with the guy who can be sent down if they don't at least play average who can get better... over the guy who can't be sent down, won't be back next year, most likely won't get better over time and plays every day, taking the team down with him.

Solid post. No argument from me. I can understand why each player was brought in... Why some are allowed to hang around is another question or shall I say concern.