Riverbrian

Development is a major part of the issue. It isn't the only issue. Not by a mile. But... in the end development is going to need to be addressed because we ain't got the money to sign the players developed by other teams. Even if we increase pay roll to 180... we won't be able to dismiss the development necessity. The need to sign or call up lesser talent to feed the machine is a major issue. If people can't see the inherent problem with any philosophy that justifies calling up or signing lesser players. It gets really hard to bore through that wood. If you want to platoon Jenkins he will need a dance partner. That dance partner is either going to cost 4 to 5 million dollars for a Margot or worse yet... he is going to sacrifice the career of a prospect like Austin Martin. Or he is going to cause Gabriel Gonzalez to be called up instead of Emmanuel Rodriguez so we can sacrifice the career of Gabriel. 4 Years from now Walker Jenkins trade value will be capped and it will because of decisions being made today. Every left handed hitter that has come through our system has been hidden from left handed pitchers. Every single one. Not a PCA or Corbin Carroll or Ben Rice in the bunch. Not a Daylen Lile in the bunch, a Delauter or Aranda in the bunch. We do have Kody Clemens. He ranks 44th in left handed hitters AB's against left handed pitchers. The Twins have allowed 308 left handed plate appearances against left handed pitchers to occur in 2026. That ranks 26th. with a .624 OPS and that ranks 24th. The Yankees have 968 PA's of left against left. They Rank #1. They have a .716 team OPS and that ranks 8th. The OPS belongs to the Cubs with a .838 team OPS left on left. There are 10 teams in MLB with a team OPS over .700 left against left. Including the extremely young Nationals. What are doing wrong? Injuries ever changing the context is a major issue when you have purposely signed lesser players. You have 13 roster spots. Limiting your roster to 4 left handers is an issue. 4 28% right handed hitters that are required to gaurd the 4 left handers is an issue. Man... you better be right about the 5 (Right Handed) players that require no such shenanigans. Because if they perform like Royce Lewis... the mathed together ball players we are developing will be called on to replace him.

I understand the size of the grain I'm going against. Yes... Casey Stengel did it... Earl Weaver did it. I can quote the historical split advantage without looking them up. I'm aware of this year and last year and the year before that. It's repeatable... it can't be denied. I used to say that I wasn't anti-platoon. The Twins have changed my mind. All 30 teams are doing it today. It is an analytic thingamabob as common as a fork to eat your dinner. However... We are at a whole new level from Casey, Earl or even Tom Kelly. Randy Bush saw 2 AB's against left handed hitters in 1991 but the use of the platoon back then is nowhere near it's utilization today. The modern day Twins have taken it beyond the whole new level. To almost complete devotion to it. To the point of weighting the left on left more so than other teams seem to. Now they may not care about 2029 when they are trying to survive 2026 but they are purposely developing half ball players tomorrow for today's result and I guess if you are a GM or manager trying to survive. I can understand the temptation to stay alive to try and actually be employed in 2029. After all... If there is a loss in cabin pressure... they are supposed to put the mask on their face first before assisting others. Yes... they may not see the end result but they are purposely making half ball players development decisions. Or... more accurately... they are purposely developing... 72% ball players or worse yet 28% ball players.

Unexpected results is a big part of my point. If results can be unexpected. How do you lock in like they won't be.

Sustained reverse splits... Yeah Exceedingly rare. Individual seasons... I'd say it's more medium rare but parameters are not defined in this discussion. Fun Fact. Alan Roden has the highest OPS against Left Handed Pitching. He's 7 for 15 at the plate against lefties. 1,167 OPS and they are hoping to turn him into the next Larnach. But. let me ask one question. If reverse splits are rare, almost to the point of nonexistence. Why are the Twins limiting the number of left handed hitters? If reverse splits are rare. Why are the Twins almost demanding right handed hitter success against right handed pitching for team success?

With Buxton out. They need CF. And with the team basically out of contention. They are letting them hang in there. I'll be surprised if they allow it opening day 2027. But... Man... I agree with your post. Enough of this developing half ball players.

He did a nice job for us. But... No we shouldn't. While he did a nice job for us. DH only that only did a nice job for us is not good use of the DH position. Unless you have a king kong type DH you shouldn't have a full time DH.

Good It won't amount to much. The remaining games won't amount to much sample wise and his presence on the 40 man roster will have to be dealt with in the off-season. But... I'm glad for him and hope he can make a positive small sample impression.

I'm trying to find out. I obviously have a bias against platooning but I'm trying to find out because if I'm going to remain strong on my opinions against the grain of popular opinion... I'd like more confidence in what I'm being strong about. Are they indictment against the lefties themselves? I suppose it is... not in the case of Roden and his limited sample but yeah... It would be an indictment against the lefties to a degree. Making this a talent discussion. It may be an indictment against how many left handed hitters you roster. Making this a platoon percentage discussion. It's actually an indictment against everyone making it a talent discussion. Probably it's more of an indictment against all of the right handed hitters against left handed pitching. 7 of them plus 3 switch gives us 10 players who will stand in the opposite batters box. Making us on paper... according to platoon advantage better equipped to face left handed pitching. Making this a talent discussion with the potential role platooning is playing in the selection of that talent or more importantly in my eyes... the development of that talent. If it's an indictment against our left handed hitters. It is also an indictment of how many left handers we allow on the roster. We only have 4 of them on the roster at the moment. We've been rolling with 3 since Gray went away. Yet... we are calling up right handers instead of more talented left handers.

Of course I didn't. I'm tracking Wins and Losses and my research doesn't include PITCHING. Perhaps the biggest factor in Win and Losses is PITCHING and it doesn't include pitching... so of course I didn't. I have acknowledged the limitations in what I'm doing in the thread. These limitations that should be obvious to all... so I didn't attach a disclaimer to every post. Apparently I should have. I'm tracking what I'm tracking because I can't find the information. Nobody is tracking it and sharing it as far as I can tell. So I'm doing it for one team when I need all 30 to compare and contrast but I don't have the time to do it. Since I'm doing it for the Twins... I'm sharing it. The information doesn't exist and it NEEDS to EXIST because ENTIRE ****ING LINEUPS ARE SET PRIMARILY BY the Handedness of the starting pitcher. That makes it about as big of an influencer as it can get. You say "ever-varying". I'm saying it's not "ever-varying". I'm using the word "Primarily" because I've been tracking to pretty much prove that at least in the case of the 2026 Twins... "Primarily" is correct. It is without question the primary decision maker on the daily lineups. Nobody is tracking it. The 9 players who are doing the majority of the hitting, the majority of the defense, the majority of the baserunning is being set due to it. Along with Batting order, who is available to pinch hit, pinch run when needed is being determined by it. Everything that isn't pitching is determined by the handedness of the pitcher. That's a huge influencer being ignored by world wide contingent of stat compilers. But it doesn't include pitching so... Of course I didn't find out. If entire starting lineups are set due to the hand of the starting pitcher. That is huge. HUGE!!! It needs to exist just like any stat that is being generated. I'd say it's more important than how a batter does in night games and I can find that stat. It is also determining who gets called up and who they roster. This makes it a TALENT thing. Not just a platoon thing and I'm saying it's possible that the platoon thing is having a ripple effect (or affect) on the Talent thing. They just called up Ggon instead of Erod due to handedness not TALENT. And... And... We needed to call up Ggon due to actions that were set in motion 4 YEARS ago when they decided to declare that Larnach can't hit left handed pitching and will never be allowed to and we will make a similar roster decision 4 years from now when we have decided that Walker Jenkins can't hit left handed pitching and won't be allowed to. It is limiting trade value when it is time to trade Larnach and it will continue to limit trade value forever more if they continue and they seem to be continuing. If they are purposely rostering lesser players. This is a major influencer and perhaps part of an overall larger development problem. And Ash... Please consider that when you state: "And the weird thing is that our best righty bats (Buxton, Jeffers and Keaschall) have had reverse-splits more or less, while most of the lefty batters have failed to clobber the same righty pitchers, amounting basically to a wash". You are kinda making my point. Not entirely but you have taken a step closer to where I am. Buxton has reverse splits this year. Last year he didn't. Ryan Jeffers has reverse splits... Last year he didn't. Brooks Lee is 2nd in AB's against left handers this year and he is carrying a .593 OPS. Trevor Larnach had a .608 OPS against left handers last year and he is toxic. Brooks Lee is not apparently? They are making decisions based on the batters box they stand in. I want to find out if it's helping. I haven't found out... but yeah... I also haven't found out that it has been helping. .

September 18 - Right Handed Starter - Grayson Rodriguez - Won - 3 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 4 RH 2 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 52-55 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.64 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- September 19 - Left Handed Starters - Reid Detmers - Loss - 5 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 5 RH 3 Switch 1 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 20-28 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.33 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- September 20 - Right Handed Starter - Ryan Johnson - Won - 8 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 2 RH 3 Switch 4 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 53-55 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.67

Well if you want a deeper assessment from me. OK At the time... Last off season... I felt we didn't have enough infield depth to make it through the season and we had too many offensive question marks in total to go for it. I thought we had plenty of OF options to protect against injury or poor performance and I thought the starting pitching would be OK (Mid Pack or better) even if we traded Joe Ryan. I thought the bullpen was going to be hard to correct after the size of the dismantle at the trade deadline. I thought the bullpen would blow a painful percentage of smaller leads accrued through a combination of a decent starting staff and offensive question marks. I would have traded Joe Ryan at peak value and Ryan Jeffers because his value was sure to go down. Any funds available for acquisition I would have liked to seen it committed to the bullpen to make it just a little bit better so it wasn't such a long way to go... Yet still a long way to go. I would not have spent the limited funds on a DH and a catcher that ended up being a backup to Jeffers and be the guy next year. The funds were limited so I was willing to punt the catcher position rather than spend limited funds on it. Just go forth with guys who can play defense and call a good game and park them in 9th spot in the order. How do I feel now? I was wrong on a few things but still think I was right in how we should have approached the off-season. I was worried about the offense and in the end it did alright so I'll say I was wrong. We are currently 11th in Runs Scored and 14th in OPS but we spent the majority of the season top 6 and we spent the season top 6 despite nearly complete collapses from two major every day pieces (Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner). The offense falling asleep down the stretch dropped the rankings and killed our playoff hopes. When it was at it's best this year was when it was using a variety of players. I still think the infield lacks sufficient depth but no matter what you or I think about the offense this season... it was the only thing that kept us in contention. Falsely in contention or not. The starting pitching... I was wrong. I thought it would be OK even after trading Joe Ryan. It wasn't really OK with Joe Ryan. Our starters rank 25th in ERA. That's not OK. Our bullpen is improved but it took a lot trial and error experiments to get it better. Overall despite the improvements. It currently ranks 26th in ERA. That's not OK. The infield still lacks necessary depth especially with Keaschall now an OF. It isn't strong enough to place all eggs in one basket. We need to develop or trade for more close to major league young infield options. The outfield has plenty of options... I just wish they would stop worrying about left or right handed batters and just focus on talent and I wish they would stop strip mining our hitting prospects for parts. It was incredibly disappointing to see Ggon called up over Erod because of handedness instead of making the decision on talent. Our starting pitching if left alone should be decent next year. I'm not sure it should be left alone because 4 arms are gone after next year. The bullpen is better... we have made incremental improvement but this is a year by year battle.

Declaring that they would go for it while sitting in the midst of a bullpen that would need to be nearly ENTIRELY rebuilt was always questionable in my mind. IMO... Last off-season would have been perfect to continue what was started when the bullpen was torn down. Going forward. They will have to re whatever by 2028. Have to... will be forced to... re whatever unless the CBA changes. We haven't produced enough young talent to avoid being forced to re whatever. They can either use the starting pitching to be competitive in 2027. Or... they can choose to trade starting pitching this off-season and start the re whatever this off-season. If they choose to keep the starting pitching and go for it in 2027. It's a reasonable thought because the rotation should be decent. However... it's the end of a window. There is a wall the following off-season that can't be avoided. They will have almost no choice but to re whatever. And we will enter that forced re-whatever off-season... with the minimum amount of choices because... we didn't have the foresight to trade for additional players to help soften the abrupt transition that's coming. Not trading Ryan this past off-season was a huge risk. The trade value lost would have to be enough to make anyone cry.

September 16 - LH Starter Carlos Rodon - Won - 5 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 6 RH 1 Switch 2 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 20-27 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.32 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- September 17 - RH Starter Walbart Urena Loss - 4 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 51-55 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.65

Those were examples off the top of my head. Check all 30 teams. There are more examples and each example is a story of opportunity gained or lost at ages past 25 years of age. Ernie Clement has a lower OPS mainly due to a lack of power but he has had 500 AB's he makes the minimum and his OPS isn't much lower or on par with players who make 35 million, 15 million, 7 million. And here's the thing. It's not just about Superstars to be worth it. Yes we need to create superstars and we desperately need to do that... but we also need to create average or below average players as well... so we don't have to go to that free agent well and spend 4 or 7 million for them. It also isn't about 6 years of service time to be worth it either. If you get one year or two out of them... that is also fine. Julien didn't pan out but for that one year he almost carried us into the playoffs. Magnum... .698 and .703 are his OPS totals. Yes... Below Average but costs the minimum and Esmerlyn will probably run him over but until then... he didn't embarrass himself and he contributed to the Pirates season. Clemens got some light opportunity with two teams. Tigers and Phillies. Yeah it didn't work out but a player like Clemens is going to have hit the very moment opportunity is given to him. He's not going to get chance after chance like Lewis or Jenkins. If he doesn't. Back to the minors he goes and he becomes a series of small samples. Yet, we will ride a Margot into the ground while the lesser prospect gets no such opportunity and this isn't just the Twins. With us... he got at the very moment he got opportunity and continued to get more opportunity.

I didn't read the entire thread nor did I read the article and I'm sure someone mentioned it. So I apologize if this is rehashing. However... the most interesting thing about this game was how close we were to a 1 pitch inning. If Keaschall would have grounded into that double play with the 1st pitch instead of the 2nd pitch. It would have been a 1 pitch inning and that has never occurred in the history of baseball. Brooks Lee IBB, Kreidler picked off 2nd. Keaschall double play is how it happens. Research says that a 2 pitch inning has occurred in the minor leagues. So a two pitch half inning of baseball just might be the first of it's kind in the majors.

It gets pretty subjective here. Can't play defense? Does every ball slide under his glove? If it doesn't... he can play some defense. It's going to be a scale of sorts just like his hitting ability will be a scale. Again... I'm not here to debate Sabato specifically. I don't know what he will be but I'm getting a pretty good idea on Royce Lewis and it drives me crazy to utilize a below average player like they are actually earning every day playing time. If average needs to play every day. You have a development problem and maybe the thought that average to below average needs to play every day is a reason why we have a development problem. Players are a combination of things. The front offices miss all the time on players. If they miss... You and I can certainly miss because I assume they are better at this than I am. The front offices miss all the time. There is one way to mitigate that.

For the record. I am not proposing that we don't draft college kids. However... I am saying that if we are just going to blanketly state that age 25 is a line for all hope is lost. Drafting a 22 year old is going to require a rocket ride through the system and what are we doing with Sabato and the 37 others currently in our system. In the meantime, I encourage everyone to take a look around the league sort each team by AB's and take a look at all of the players who have an OPS with .6 or .5 in front of them getting over 300 AB's. Then think about the available space on a 26 man roster and think about the 9 spots available on a lineup card. I've done that and I can't help but wonder if the league hasn't artificially made it harder for players over the age of 25 to get the opportunity to compete with some pretty average to below average performers.

Again... I'm not here to debate Sabato. I'm not going to confidently make a call on him. But I will debate Jake Magnum if you'd like. Ernie Clement or Nathan Lukes or Kody Clemens.

Disclaimer: I'm not going to directly support or destroy Aaron Sabato. But... I'm going to point out that Josh Bell won't be here next year. Royce Lewis is up to 1479 Plate Appearances. Every other team in the league has developed a young 1B that can hit. And we sit here and pre judge the potential options because we can't yield playing time while Caratini plays 1B.

Because we don't know that he (they) are worse. Again... I'm not here to debate Sabato specifically. I'm not going to be hypocritical on the subject. I don't know what Sabato can do. But... I'm not going to dismiss him out of hand and pretend that Royce Lewis is irreplaceable. That he shouldn't be challenged for playing time by anyone. I'm not going to pretend that I know what Ben Ross is capable of. What I do know is this. We don't have a team full of players that should rip opportunity away from the others. Commit to average. Pretend that average or below average is irreplaceable and they will be.

It doesn't actually. I'll admit that there is a contingent of folks on TD that are a little prospect over the top. But I also recognize that there is a contingent of folks on TD that are anti young player to the point of unreasonable. The truth is somewhere in the middle. Myself... I'm not bored... I am tired of committing 425 AB's to below average. Committing 308 AB's to a player worse than that. Somewhere around 1500 plus AB's total committed to below average. I'm tired of counting pre-arb talent across the league (Many over the age of 25) and seeing it perform as well or better as the player getting force fed AB's until they figure it out. Yet I'm told that below average players can't yield any playing time. They must play every day and the players age out in the minors trying to squeeze through this self made bottle neck. Players that could be just as below average for less money as the guy we have labelled as every day. Or maybe better in the end. But we just reject these players out of hand. I really don't know what Sabato could be. I honestly don't care because no one else does either and I'm not here to debate Sabato. Meanwhile Royce Lewis has to play everyday I guess and Sabato is just too old now with a lucky pull ratio.

We should probably stop drafting college kids. The organization could probably save some money on coaching by having them just ignore the 38 in the farm system. We wouldn't as many coaches in theory. If these old men want to hang around St. Paul or Wichita. Make them responsible for their own coaching.

Just an interesting note. Nothing more... nothing less... but yeah I'm going to point it out. Left Handed Starter Max Fried gave up 6 hits over 7 innings. 3 of those hits 6 hits came from left handed batters and the only two extra base hits and the only RBI came from left handed batters. There were only two left handed hitters in the lineup. Over 106 Max Fried thrown innings in 2026. He has been good... very good with a 2.63 ERA and 100 Punch Outs. Left Handed Hitters in 2026 have registered a .172 BA and a .469 OPS against Fried. Right Handed Hitters in 2026 have registered a .206 BA and a .556 OPS against Fried. The guy is good against everyone but we are not looking at reverse splits. It's one game. Doesn't mean anything by itself but it does lend to the questioning of per AB benefit or per game benefit since the stats we look at are accrued over larger samples.

After beating Seth Lugo on July 28. The Twins were 41-34 in games started by Right Handed Pitchers. We averaged 4.93 runs per game. Then Randy Dobnak shut us out on July 29th. This began a stretch of 13 games of a 3.69 runs per game. We dropped a run per game but we did manage to go 6-7 in that stretch. On August 21 in beautiful San Diego. We shifted downward even further. We are currently in a 14 game streak of averaging 2.78 runs per game vs RH starters and we have gone 1-13 in that stretch. Disclaimer: I have taken out the Tigers series that we scored 37 runs in 3 games. Yeah... that will influence that 2.78 number. We used to have a winning record against Right Handed Starters. We no longer do. This is where we collapsed. On another thread I have been tracking results vs RH Starters and LH Starters. I am not tracking performance against RH pitchers or LH Pitchers that data is easily found. I'm tracking team performance vs RH Staters and LH Starters. I am tracking final results for the entire game regardless if the starter was removed in the 3rd or 8th inning and this is because the lineup is chosen primarily based on the hand of the starter and the chosen lineup does the majority of the work. The reason I'm tracking results and categorizing RH Starters and LH Starters is because Derek Shelton sets his daily lineup (just like Rocco before him) by what hand the starter throws with. It is undeniable that Right Handed Starter or Left Handed Starter is the primary information that determines the starting lineup. I'm tracking composition so I can confidently say that it is the primary factor in the lineup. I can confidently say that it is without a doubt the primary factor in lineup selection. The 9 players on the lineup card do the majority of the work. They not only hit... they run the bases... they make the defensive plays. The starting lineup also determines what pinch hitters and pinch runners are available in late game situations... so I have been tracking the results Yes... There are big huge things that play major factors in wins and losses that the research ignores... big huge things like your own pitching performance. However... the reason we platoon is to increase our chances of winning and I wanted to find out if it did that.

Speaking of Luis Arraez. Has anyone noticed what has happened with his OAA this year compared to every other year of his career. Does anyone ever question how that happens. Does anyone notice that he simultaneously has a +11 OAA and a -2 DRS. Does anyone ever question that? Yeah I know OAA and DRS use different methodologies, different data... but they both are trying to tell you if a player is a good defender or not and they disagree with each other and we are hanging players with the numbers. OK... back to the topic. If you have a sub par position player there is no reason to lock him into a static position. If he is capable of being sub par at multiple positions... that skill is perhaps the most helpful utilization of that sub par position player. It's the Nolan Arenado type defensive talent that shouldn't leave a position. Would I put Keaschall back at 2B? Based on what I've seen from him so far... No I would not. Based on the current context of the team... Yes I would.