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Seansy

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Everything posted by Seansy

  1. I like Festa as a sleeper pick. It is rare for prospects outside of the first few rounds to succeed at the MLB level (except for overslot prospects that fall due to signability concerns e.g. Julien) but he certainly put himself on the radar this year with his performance. It is worth noting that his BAA and WHIP both went up quite a bit in High A versus Low A and Low A is a pitcher friendly league so I would only list him as an honorable mention but given his stuff he has a non-zero chance at breaking out further. If you could guarantee me that Canterino is healthy for his career I would say he has the best chance of being an ace but sadly the odds are stacked against him for that right now. Prielipp is currently their most likely ace prospect right now and I wouldn't underrate his chances of hitting that ceiling given he showed his stuff recovered pretty well in his predraft workouts. I have said it before and I will repeat it that snagging both Lee and Prielipp in the same draft this year is an absolute coup for the FO and they should be commended for taking advantage of those players being available to them. Even if Prielipp never amounts to anything due to injuries it should remain undisputed that the pick was a good one given his upside at that pick.
  2. It is Rodon or bust for me to acquire that #1 starter for next year. I wouldn't shortchange how good of a year Gray had for the Twins this year either though. Mahle could also be good if healthy too. Ideally, the sign Rodon and can still extend Gray and Mahle to decent contracts for the following years.
  3. Joe Ryan has already made the Cruz deal look amazing but I agree he can unlock another level with some further development of his offspeed pitches. Given how good his FB is with the deception it has I think his floor is probably a low # 3 starter but if he unlocks more he could easily be a very good #2 pitcher.
  4. I like Narvaez the best as a LHH. Pairing Jeffers with another RHH is just setting him up for failure as either the back up or co starter.
  5. Solid list. Appreciate the write up. I assume when you refer to a role in '23 you mean they start figuring into the Twins' plans as prospects? No way they debut with the big-league club next year.
  6. No, don't trade him when his value has cratered. Give him a chance to bounce back fully next year than assess his fit on the team from there. Unless some team wants to pay for him as a top 50 global prospect I would rather wait and see how he bounces back given his strong finish to the year.
  7. Good article. Worth remembering that most prospects either never make The Show or just get a brief cup of coffee. Even top prospects frequently don't pan out.
  8. If they can sign him to a Harris II type deal? Sure. Otherwise wait until the end of next year to ensure the league doesn't adjust to him and he fails to adjust back.
  9. Excellent work! Appreciate the time put into it. After the first 2 picks this was an easy A+ draft regardless of what came next. The VT shortstop is interesting to me given he outproduced Gavin Cross when they played together. Hopefully some other guys also end up becoming contributors too.
  10. From FG: Twins got 1 of 4 55-60 prospects at 8 https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0 Connor was ranked 27th (with tremendous variance) Schobel 66. The fact that he outproduced Gavin Cross on the same team has been an interesting factoid to learn about him. 2022 MLB Draft: Day One Recap | FanGraphs Baseball
  11. I think this analysis requires more columns for more categories. Perhaps BB% and some other ones. Strike % is fine but can be misleading as some players throw less strikes but give up fewer walks than other players that throw more strikes.
  12. I have many doubts on this. For 1, he obviously needs to ditch the cutter but he's been lucky on his fastball too. The regression on his fastball is to the NEGATIVE. His xba and xslg are both higher than his actual numbers for the fastball! https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/emilio-pagan-641941?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb His new splitter has been great but that's his only good pitch right now. Awful cutter, mediocre at best fastball, and a great splitter. I remain skeptical.
  13. I know this may not be a popular suggestion but Gordon has barely played the infield this year. He's basically a good defensive outfielder that is a below average hitter. His defense isn't good enough to offset the lack of offense. Especially with Celestino playing well. Maybe his numbers will improve soon but if they need a spot for Garlick and AK then Gordon and Soto make the most sense for position players to be removed. Otherwise just DFA Duffey to have 1 less arm in the BP.
  14. The ongoing struggles of Henriquez, Balazovic, and Sands has been disappointing at AAA. Hoping for Canterino to fix his walk issues too.
  15. I think it probably should of happened a while ago and once other players come back from the IL Buck should be added on it too.
  16. He should be DFA'D but he likely will get a phantom IL stint first and is still unlikely to be DFA'D afterwards.
  17. I am happy to see Larnach playing well and the underlying metrics all support his success as being sustainable and not luck based. My only 2 concerns are that 1) his whiff percentage and K percentage so high that he may more easily go into a slump because of how often he does not make contact. 2) His statcast numbers against breaking balls are bad despite some good BABIP luck and he literally has 0 hits against offspeed pitches. I would bet teams throw him more changeups and it will require an adjustment from Larnach to compensate for his abysmal results against the pitch thus far.
  18. I liked the trade at the time and nothing has happened to change my opinion now. The Twins likely won that trade but until we see the two prospects provide value it is TBD.
  19. A lot of older players dominating younger hitters. Hopefully promotions start happening soon to challenge some of these pitchers.
  20. AsI have said elsewhere. Keep Smeltzer in the rotation and move Archer to long relief as other SPs get healthy. Archer's stuff is fine 1st time through the order but craters the 2nd time through. This is why he should move to long relief instead of laboring through 4 innings in every start.
  21. We got both Celestino and Alcala for 1.5 years of Pressly. I know some people will complain that the Twins somehow would beat NY instead of getting swept with an unavailable "ace" and Pressly on the team but that trade is clearly a win for the FO given how well both players have turned out.
  22. I thought he might potentially replace Gordon as the utility player if Gordon cannot play SS as a back up. TBD...
  23. I have always been a big believer in the FO's work to find relievers over signing big money FAs. Whether it is developed internally or a minor league FA getting a chance, they have enough options to rotate through until someone sticks. Thielbar, Coulombe, Stashak, Duffey, Duran, Smith, Alcala, etc. have all had success through this process. Whether it is Austin, Sisk, Moran, Cano, or Hamilton etc. eventually they will find another guy or more to stick in the BP for the team.
  24. I think Smeltzer should be up and starting. Move Archer to a long relief role to piggyback off of another starter since he struggles multiple times through a lineup and keeps getting pulled quickly. Leave Canterino to develop as a starter.
  25. Rodriguez is definitely cheating but with both Stank and Festa promoted it makes picking a Low A guy tricky. Raya and Hajjar were both picks in the first 5 rounds. Either Perez or Fedko would be my picks for Low A even if they are old for the level.
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