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SomeGuy

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Everything posted by SomeGuy

  1. SomeGuy
    Gio gave up 10 runs in 15 innings at AAA so far this year. AAA batters were hitting .317 off him. Small sample size blah blah blah, but he is clearly a pitcher in decline. I wouldn't rank him ahead of anyone we currently have (bullpen included). He has no interest in being a AAA depth piece. Easy pass for me. His repertoire suffered greatly from a huge step back in his curveball, a pitch that routinely earned swings-and-misses held just a 9% swinging-strike rate last year, forcing Gonzalez to turn to his decent changeup more often as a put-away pitch. Without that big hook in his back-pocket, it will be tough for Gonzalez to return quality innings with a sub 90mph fastball and middling changeup and we may see Gonzalez go the way of James Shields and Ubaldo Jimenez shortly. (Nick Pollack-FanGraphs)
  2. SomeGuy
    Daniel Palka was demoted to AAA. He was slashing .029/.190/.029 or 1 single in 42 at bats (6 walks, 15 strike outs).
  3. SomeGuy
    I think it was less about Cruz needing the day off than it was about keeping Rosario's bat in the lineup. Paid off big time with the homerun. Halfway through April and only Rosario and Polanco have not been given a day off. Glad to see we are keeping people fresh. We have a deep lineup, this will help in the long run. Great decision making by Baldelli and co.
  4. SomeGuy
    Tuesday was the first time Cruz didn't start in an AL game. Rocco has started Cruz in 10 of 11 games where DH was available so this isn't a pattern that Rocco sits Cruz. Cruz also has 1 hit in 11 PA against the starting pitcher that night as well. We used that poor matchup to give Rosario some rest at DH. If we gave Rosario a full day off instead we wouldn't have had his 3 run HR. I have no issue with Cruz getting a rare night off especially when its a bad matchup.
  5. SomeGuy
    If last night was the bullpens turn for the B squad, I guess today is the offense's turn to rest. No Cruz, Cron, Schoop, or Garver. Astudillo and Marwin Gonzalez batting 4 and 5.....gross.
  6. SomeGuy
    First blown save of the season for any Twins reliever. Just the 2nd loss credited to the pen. Fortunately it has been the bullpen reserves that are struggling and not the "go to" relievers. Continue to give Mejia and Vasquez chances, they will come around.
  7. SomeGuy
    How is an article going to talk about Twins Exit Velocity and Launch Angle without mentioning Buxton? I get it, he wasn't a recent pickup or a product of this FO but I still want to talk about it. 94.5 MPH average Exit Velocity, 22nd in MLB, higher than MVP Christian Yelich(who is not slumping). 55% hard hit rate, 31st in MLB, 0.2% lower than Trout (29th). His Launch angle is also more than double his career average so far. 28.2 versus 11.0 for career.
  8. SomeGuy
    The pitchers are also pitching to support the shift they have in place. They try not to give them anything that they can be easily hit the other way. Basically just hit it the other way is easier said than done. If players could beat the shift at will, then it wouldn't make sense to use it. Makes me think hitters can't beat the shift at will. (Some players are exceptions and they don't see as many shifts) MLB.com determined that batting averages are lower with the shift in place but walks and homeruns slightly increased when the shift was on. So in a way that is how hitters are trying to beat the shift. Overall the shift decreased wOBA for the lefties they studied by just .008, the righties they studied were actually better against the shift by .001. Like Ted's article says if the shift is trying to take away my singles I will go for extra bases (launch angle). https://www.mlb.com/news/9-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-shift-c276706888
  9. SomeGuy
    Its not about strike outs. Its about the weak contact he makes outside the zone. He has to realize that with more 3 ball counts he will see more meatballs that he can drive. It is extremely impressive that he can put the bat on the ball no matter where it is but it would still be better to take a ball here and there. Since he is primarily a catcher I have to believe he knows these balls are out of the strike zone.
  10. SomeGuy
    At what point do you as a coach tell Astudillo that he needs cut down on swinging outside the strike zone? At 51.3% he swings at more balls out of the zone than he doesn't. I don't see how he will sustain his success without laying off more pitches. Looking at heat maps of his average/pitch and slugging/pitch at each part of the zone and it is like you would expect, he doesn't make hard contact when he swings out of the zone. Take last night for example 3 of his 4 outs were on pitches out of the zone. All 3 were routine ground balls. As a pitcher the strategy has to become don't throw anything in the zone and let your defense play the weak grounders. I'm not trying to rag on him, I think he could be really good. 100% contact rate on pitches IN the strike zone when he swings (83.8% of the time). He does have the lowest exit velocity on the Twins and is all the way down at 290th in MLB. I think if he could boost his walks rates or make pitchers throw more strikes he would help this and be a beast in on base%.
  11. SomeGuy
    Vasquez deserves more chances, hopefully we don't make a habit out of bringing in rookies with the bases loaded to face the top of the order. That was not a good choice in hindsight. I'm not giving up on De Jong after one bad inning either. Pitching depth is a major strength for us this year. It's not front of the rotation/back of the bullpen depth but we have good depth. If Berrios, Pineda, and Gibson stay mostly healthy and pitch decent we have nothing to worry about. Hildenberger should be a fine bullpen piece. He has battled inconsistencies in his first 2 seasons but I am confident he will have a good year. No signings, no trades (until July), this is our squad. Leave the rotation (with Perez) the way it is until an injury occurs. Our offense will be great and our pitching will be fine (average).
  12. SomeGuy
    Trevor May leads the league in several Statcast categories. He has the lowest Average Exit velocity against with 76.5MPH. He has the lowest hard hit% with 5.6% (only allowed one hit above 95MPH). His Barrels/Plate Appearance is 0.0%. Between May, Rogers, Hildenberger, and Parker it is clear that we have no need for Kimbrel or any other closer candidate. Our bullpen is fine.
  13. SomeGuy
    The Giants apply another patch to their sinking ship. They should have blown it up 2 years ago.
  14. SomeGuy
    If this is his norm he won't get that NL chance. The White Sox are more than a good Ervin Santana away from being a threat this year, they are a mess. He's a great guy though. I hope he does well.
  15. SomeGuy
    Big Erv had a rough 1st start. He was still sitting in that 89-91MPH fastball range that he was stuck in last season after the injury. In 3.2 innings he gave up 3 homeruns and 7 total runs. 1K 3BB 7H. Hopefully the velocity is just rebuilding strength and not his new norm.
  16. SomeGuy
    We did go 29-26 for those last 2 months of "tanking" last season.
  17. SomeGuy
    Why isn't there a 80-89 wins without playoffs scenario?
  18. SomeGuy
    Twitter seems like it does more harm than good for professional athletes. Its bad enough that they get yelled at by hateful fans in the stadium (like Adam Jones and the racist Red Sox fan), I don't think fans need a direct channel to spout their BS at them. I support his decision to not have social media if he doesn't want it.
  19. SomeGuy
    According to Trade Rumors Gordon has a stomach issue, acute gastritis (inflammation of his stomach lining). Gonsalves has left flexor/pronator strain (throwing elbow).
  20. SomeGuy
    This is a reach, there isn't much of an injury history here....All 3 pitched more than 175 innings last season and made at least 28 starts. The Twins haven't had 3 pitchers reach 175 innings since 2005. Clevinger should also be considered an ace and he pitched 32 games for 200 innings last season. Injuries are always a risk for starters but this team has had great health overall with their star pitchers. Carrasco 192 Innings, 33 games (2 consecutive seasons with 190+ innings, 30+ starts in 3 of last 4 seasons) Bauer 175.1 innings, 28 games (4 consecutive seasons with 175+ innings) Kluber 215 Innings, 33 games ( 5 consecutive seasons with 200+ innings)
  21. SomeGuy
    Just a buzz word. The Marlins and Orioles are probably the only teams that can claim a true "tanking" label this year. Royals are a consideration but they put together something of a game plan for this season.
  22. SomeGuy
    I don't think recognizing what is clearly a future Hall of Fame manager makes anyone a Cleveland homer.
  23. SomeGuy
    The main loses for the Indians were Yan Gomes and Michael Brantley. The whole Encarnacion/Alonzo/Santana/Bauers/Hanley mess should be close to a wash. They got themselves one more year of control with Santana (3 total years) and he is 3 years younger than Encarnacion. Michael Brantley has averaged 81 games per season from 2016-2018. Its understandable that a small market team wouldn't want to match the 16M per season for such a high injury risk. Their outfield is young and underwhelming but the depth is there with Zimmer returning at some point and both Carlos Gonzalez and Cameron Maybin at AAA. Yan Gomes is a catcher so his impact is limited but its still a significant loss. They did add a young catcher that was a top 100 prospect and had a 97 wRC+ in the majors between 2017-2018. He also had a great spring .317/.404/.610. Yan Gomes had a 94wRC+ in the same time frame 2017-18. They might not be 3rd in runs scored like last season but I don't think they are suddenly a terrible offense, unless Lindor and Ramirez continue to have health issues later into the season. Both Cody Allen and Andrew Miller had a collective ERA of 4.54 last season so I'm not considering that much of a loss other than the rebound potential their new teams are now hoping for.
  24. SomeGuy
    Twins MVP: Eddie Rosario Twins Pitcher of the Year: Jose Berrios Most Improved Twin: Byron Buxton Twins Top Rookie: Andrew Vasquez Twins HR Leader: Eddie Rosario Twins RBI Leader: Nelson Cruz Twins Batting Average Leader: Eddie Rosario Twins On-Base Percentage Leader: Nelson Cruz Twins ERA title: Jose Berrios Twins Wins Leader: Jose Berrios Twins Saves Leader: Trevor May Twins in the All-Star Game: Jose Berrios, Nelson Cruz Twins Win Total: 84 Twins Finish in AL Central: 2nd
  25. SomeGuy
    Average offense at best and poor pitching. Numerous elite prospects are struggling to be average Major League starters. The rotation is bad. Dylan Cease could break this bust trend or be right where the others are and be below average with the occasional dominant game. Their most experienced starter (Ivan Nova) is taking a mid 4 ERA and FIP from the NL into the American League. Good chance their ERA leader in the rotation is a 4+ ERA. Here are the 2018 FIPs for their starters. Keep in mind this team ranked 26th in dWAR last season. Mixing 4 pitchers who struggle in the Fielding Independent Pitching metric with one of the worst fielding teams in MLB is not a good mix. Rodon - 4.95 Lopez - 4.63 Giolito - 5.56 Nova - 4.57 This rebuild is not going according to plan. Jose Abreu remains their only prospect to actually breakout in the big leagues and he is a free agent after this season. 90+ losses is my prediction.
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