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SomeGuy

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Everything posted by SomeGuy

  1. SomeGuy
    For me it is not about the money or the roster spot. De Jong is not a huge loss IF he is claimed. Mejia is at risk but can be stashed in the bullpen. The agent didn't do too bad considering how many people expected this to be a minor league signing. Seems like he did pretty good to have 4-5 teams bidding on him if Perez is as bad as this thread seems to think he is. Pretty fair deal all around plus he can get double in 2020 on the option if he does have a nice year.
  2. SomeGuy
    What would Pressly add to that win total? Is that the missing link, a great setup man? It would have been nice to have Pressly but I have to agree with Tom's article when he said the deal was too good to pass on. Projections are a funny thing too. Martin Perez is projected by Steamer to have a better ERA than Odorizzi.
  3. SomeGuy
    At 27 I don't think you can say the questions have been answered. There is a good pitcher in him somewhere, it is a 4M gamble that we can figure out a good way to utilize him. A very small gamble for sure. His career numbers are no worse than our other options, what is there to lose? Just leaving the poor pitchers ballpark in Texas should help, plus he is going from the worst team in a very good division to one of the best teams in a very poor division. I'm sure there are some advanced analytics underlying the Twins interest as well as the other 4-5 teams that were bidding on him.
  4. SomeGuy
    Gonzalves is 3 years younger while Littell is 4. Kindergartners to 3rd grade maybe. Starting MLB at 21 shows how good Perez was supposed to be. Reports were that Houston was bidding on him until the very end. That is interesting to me, those guys are pitching wizards. Speaking of rookies, Martin Perez finished 6th in rookie of the year voting with a 3.62 ERA and 124.1 innings.
  5. SomeGuy
    From a career standpoint that cannot be said of Perez. With this 2018 logic the same could be said about Gonsalvez, Busenitz, and Littell being among the worst in baseball or Berrios in 2016.
  6. SomeGuy
    I wouldn't expect it to be in spring training that he is cut but I could see him losing the rotation spot in spring training.
  7. SomeGuy
    I would want to try him in the bullpen before cutting him in this hypothetical situation. We could also ask him to accept a minor league assignment if he is pitching too poorly. But these "3-5M guys" also have a chance to be successful too. Everyone is pretty eager to say this guy is dragging us down.
  8. SomeGuy
    Alcala is 11th and Celestino is 14th according to MLB.com. Baseball Prospectus has Celestino at 10th. I'm thrilled that 1 year of control for a relief pitcher netted this return.
  9. SomeGuy
    His spot in the rotation is not guaranteed. Neither is his roster spot since it is still only 4M if we decide to cut him. Are you saying there is no scenario where he improves the team? His career ERA of 4.63 is pretty similar to Kyle Gibson's 4.47. Perez is also 4 years younger than Gibson. His career ERA of 4.63 is better than the 2018 ERA from these players; Lance Lynn, Fernando Romero, Gabriel Moya, Alan Busenitz, Tyler Duffey, Ervin Santana, Stephen Gonzalvez, Matt Belisle, Zach Littel, Aaron Slegers, Phil Hughes, and John Curtiss. No guarantee he pitches to a 4 something ERA (or better) but its not that unreasonable that he would. I don't think its fair to say he blocks the development of a youngster when he himself is only 27 with room to develop. He has a mid 90's fastball and one of the better curveball spin rates in MLB. Not many of our youngsters have this skill set and experience. There will be an opening in the rotation at some point this season for other youngsters, this is only a 1 year deal, this is only 4M. I don't see any way this hampers our team.
  10. SomeGuy
    Where would we play Palka in our lineup if we still had him? He is a bad outfielder with limited experience anywhere else. It would likely be between Cave, Cruz and him. Sorry Palka, I'll take the other two. Finding a poor fielding, power hitter with a .240 batting average and under .300 OBP is not that hard to find.
  11. SomeGuy
    Below are the top 10 catchers of 2015 in terms of WAR. Only two of them were in the top 10 in WAR for 2018. Four had less than 20 plate appearances in 2018. I don't think it's a wise choice to trade a top 10 prospect for someone who is currently among the best at the vulnerable position of catcher. I think there is a very good reason no one has bitten on the Marlins demands yet. Buster Posey (12th in 2018 WAR, age 31) Francisco Cervelli (3rd, age 32) Russell Martin (34th, age 35) Brian McCann (37th,age 34) Derek Norris (zero MLB plate appearances in 2018, age 29) Stephen Vogt (zero MLB plate appearances in 2018, age 34) Nick Hundley (30th, age 35) Travis dArnaud (16 PA in 2018, age 29) Yasmani Grandal (2nd, age 30) Miguel Montero (13 PA in 2018, age 35)
  12. SomeGuy
    3 of the 4 are better than marginal in my opinion and hopefully the FO too. Perez being the odd man out there. I wouldn't call 30 HR .813 OPS .323 OBP a scrap heap player but you and the Rays feel otherwise. Same goes for a career 3.29 ERA 3.60 FIP pitcher. All these players have to do is play close to this level and they are good players IMO. They could be quite a bit worse than this and still be decent. Even with Schoop I feel that a decent or better 2019 is a better bet than being flat out terrible.
  13. SomeGuy
    Who is a bounce back candidate besides Schoop? Cron isn't, he was good last year. Parker isn't, he was also good last year. 2018 Schoop is also better than what we got from 2B in 2018. With Tyler Austin and Jake Cave looking for at bats we signed one of the best hitters available in Nelson Cruz. That doesn't signify a rebuild. Its not a rebuild when you just have good cost effective players like Garver, Kepler, Berrios, Rosario etc. Why would they flop because they ARE 1 year deals? I don't understand the logic there. If anything they should be motivated to play for a longer deal next time through the market. I don't think its fair to say Morrison or Lynn would have had a good years had they gotten 3 year deals. Especially when Morrison complained of a hip injury and Lynn had a short spring training and a move to AL as much better excuses. Plus the FO points out how vastly different this years signings are. Parker, Cron, Schoop, and even Perez signed early, nothing about these signing was lack of interest or forced to take a deal under their perceived value.
  14. SomeGuy
    I disagree with the questions being great. Is 2019 a rebuilding year? We addressed many of the holes in the lineup. We haven't entertained the idea of selling any of the many expiring contracts we have. We obviously view 2019 as a competitive year. A better question would have been something like "why aren't we going 'all in' or when can we expect to be more aggressive?" Nothing we have done suggests "rebuild." Because our payroll decreased doesn't mean our talent level did. Why all the 1 year contracts after we saw so many free agent flops last year? I don't understand, you are worried about free agents flopping but also wondering why we only sign short deals? Is the pitching staff good enough to play meaningful games in Sept? Change Sept to October and its a great question. I think the rotation is a little better than last year by having Pineda. Add in Parker, a full season of May, and the plan to use our young guys like Mejia, Romero, etc. as relievers should help the bullpen. This could be a decent group. I would answer yes confidently to are they good enough to "play meaningful games in Sept" but I don't know how confident I would be in the pitching staff if we made it to October. My idea of "meaningful games in Sept" would include being 5-7 games behind Cleveland or the 2nd wildcard which is a reasonable expectation. Compared to a typical playoff team though, it is an underwhelming group.
  15. SomeGuy
    I support treating 2019 as a development year but didnt know so many others did. I also dont think Perez is going to block anyone. There will be an opening in the rotation at some point in 2019. Mejia, Perez, Gonzalez could all start in the bullpen too, we will have openings replaceable pieces in the bullpen.
  16. SomeGuy
    And if none of those pitchers prove ready? Is Mejia healthy and staying that way? What about Pineda? Depth is a good thing especially one that you can move to the bullpen or cut all together if it doesnt work out.
  17. SomeGuy
    Which still includes Duffey and Magill..... "Drew Pomeranz signs with the Giants for 1.5mil guaranteed, that is the kind of deal and player I would support." "Brian Duensing made $3.5 mil each of the last two years. Despite a nightmarish 2018, he still has a sub 4 career relief ERA and a career .625 OPS vs LHB. Point being that is the type of pitcher one can get for $3.5 mil. I don’t see Perez as that good." "$3.5 mil guaranteed seems steep for a guy who *might* become a second lefty out of the pen..." - Spycake
  18. SomeGuy
    To over simplify the comment section of this website. Fans are outraged that the front office hasn't maintained the record payroll of last year but at the same time they find a paltry amount like 3.5M an outrageous amount of money to spend on a 5th starter/bullpen piece. As this article pointed out, it was also "common knowledge" (reported) that the Blake Parker deal was 3.2M but it turned out to be 1.8M+incentives. Don't take it to the bank when an unnamed source throws out a figure preceded by the word approximately.
  19. SomeGuy
    Why are people so turned off by 3.5M? We still don't know much about the actual deal yet since it has not been confirmed by the club yet. It could be incentive laced, it could be something like 2.5 with a 1M buyout on next season, etc. All we have to go on is Jon Heyman's source saying the deal is worth approximately 3.5M. Is that the maximum including all incentives and options exercised, or just 2019? We don't know yet. I'm assuming the interest in Perez lies in his curveball spin rate. He ranked in the 74th percentile in 2018. Astros were interested in him and they love that statistic.
  20. SomeGuy
    The Marlins and Pirates are also being speculated as mystery teams. Reporters seem to be taking Machado's father's quote to heart when he said it might be the team you least expect.
  21. SomeGuy
    I kind of think the 3.5M includes the option year. At the very least it should include the buyout Jon Heyman says "Perez’s deal is worth approximately $3.5MM" I took that as the whole deal, maybe I'm wrong.
  22. SomeGuy
    They did pull Magill out of thin air and seemed to fix Drake last year. Maybe Perez will work out too. 3.5M is not a big deal if he doesn't work out. Don't see why people are getting worked up over such a low risk move.
  23. SomeGuy
    One more mid to upper level reliever and we had a heck of an off season. People get so caught up in payroll, I am reasonably certain that Twins fans would rather have a 5th place 150M payroll than a 1st place 115M payroll. I like how the Twins are going to let some of the many question marks we have be worked out before diving headfirst into the "competitive window." Since we received a competitive balance pick, we know that we are in the bottom 10 for revenue. So when we have the 9th lowest payroll (where we are as of today) I don't think its fair to say that our payroll is a joke.
  24. SomeGuy
    Twins are receiving a competitive balance pick for 2019 which would indicate that we are currently in the bottom 10 for Revenue/market size. Our payroll is likely to be in or near the bottom 10 teams for payroll, not at or above league average.
  25. SomeGuy
    Twins are a below average market. Now that the new stadium lure has worn off, we continue to rank about 20th in attendance, even in competitive years. I would guess that our payroll will continue to reflect our place in the market. Not only was last year a record payroll for us, it was an absolute flop. Might make them think twice about how much value there is in aging free agents. Plus last season we were coming off a playoff run, it looked like it was the time to start pushing the chips to the center of the table. I would not fault them for taking a season to re-evaluate where certain players are in the future plans. That said I support a closer signing like Cody Allen but I don't expect anything more than one more bullpen piece from Free Agency this offseason.
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