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SomeGuy

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  1. SomeGuy
    AL Central - Cleveland AL East - Boston AL West - Houston Wild Cards - Yankees, Twins NL Central - Cubs NL East - Nationals NL West - LA Dodgers Wild Cards - Phillies Atlanta AL Champ: Astros NL Champ: Dodgers World Series Champ: Astros AL MVP - Mike Trout AL Cy Young - Chris Sale AL Rookie of the Year - Eloy Jimenez NL MVP - Nolan Arenado NL Cy Young - Max Scherzer NL Rookie of the Year - Chris Paddock
  2. SomeGuy
    84
  3. SomeGuy
    Fangraphs seems more intrigued by our pitching than most opinions I've seen. Twins scored pretty well at all of their position breakdowns, I like the statement, a team that is average or better everywhere will be a good team. Bullpen is projected as 11th best in MLB in terms of WAR. "Minnesota’s bullpen is one without big names, but it could be sneaky-good this season. The team doesn’t appear to have a set closer just yet, but they do have options." Rotation is projected as 14th "This was a surprise entry in the upper half. They’ve actually been in or very near the top half in all of the previews and a team that is average or better everywhere is going to be good. Berrios is the best of the bunch and still holds some ace-level upside." "Pineda and Perez are the injury bounce-back bets who could turn this into a top 10 rotation if things go their way." https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-1-15/
  4. SomeGuy
    Should be an active trade deadline for them. At least the poor Alex Gordon contract ends after this season. That will free up 20M or 21% of their current payroll. Ian Kennedy is another bad contract that they will probably have to wait out (2 more years, 16.5M per year). They seem to be at or near the rock bottom part of their rebuild, the roster is weak with only a few trade candidates. Their farm system is still pretty weak as well but getting better. They should start trending in the right direction in a couple years. Decent small pickups this off season that they will probably try to flip at the deadline.
  5. SomeGuy
    He hasn't pitched since 3/14. I would say there is something there for an injury.
  6. SomeGuy
    His defense is overrated. He gets a ton of praise for how many positions he can field but not much focus on how he is below average everywhere but 1B and corner OF. He is a bat first utility fielder. I bet quite a few players in MLB could play this many positions at a below average level if they were asked to. I doubt he comes anywhere close to his 2017 season offensively (or Escobar of last season). A .250-.260ish batting average with an OPS in the low to mid .700s that can give a lot of the starters rest is what I'm expecting. Still a valuable player. I'm kind of hoping they roll with Adrianza as the starting 3B until Sano returns and Gonzalez rotates among all his positions.
  7. SomeGuy
    Buxton left game with injury after a collision with Xander bogaerts.
  8. SomeGuy
    Seattle could have a decent offense with exciting young guys like Mallex Smith, Domingo Santana, and Tim Beckham joining Encarnacion, Dee Gordon, Mitch Haniger and eventually Kyle Seager. Ryon Healy is young too but has been good 2 of his 3 seasons. A lot of ups and downs for the young guys they have, kind of like the Twins are hoping 2-3 guys put it all together. Their pitching is the question with Gonzalez, Kikuchi, Hernandez and Leake. They would probably need Justice Sheffield to arrive to have any success here. I think people are more down on them than they deserve. A couple young guys take the final step forward and .500 is possible. If there isn't a clear 2nd wildcard and 85 wins gets it like in 2017 then 77-81 Wins wouldn't look too bad. Underdogs for sure but I don't believe they "tanked" as bad as everyone else seems to believe. I see them as pretty close to the Angels.
  9. SomeGuy
    At no point in his career did Pressly suddenly become elite with a lower number of appearances. Except the time he was acquired by the Houston Astros. His fastball velocity remained consistent month to month each season 2016 to 2018.
  10. SomeGuy
    So your argument is that it is a mental thing when he pitches too often or he is physically breaking down? You would think that his velocity/Movement would reflect some sort of change on a month to month change if he was physically affected by his workload. His innings per month isn't really supporting a drastically lower workload. More rest days but longer outings. Would this disqualify him from any sort of defined closer role if you were running the team? In 2017 Pressly pitched 9 innings in april, 9 innings in May. You call this overworked. He pitched 11.2 in July, 16 in July, 11.2 in August. You call this a lower workload. I'm going out on a limb here and saying that he worked on something or had a wake up call with the June demotion to AAA. 2016 also show no signs of overworked in an innings per month standing. Certainly doesn't seem like less equals more. Had he thrown 2/3 of an inning more in June would he have lost that 4 point improvement? April 14.1 innings 3.14ERA May 14.1 - 6.28 ERA June 13.2 - 1.98 ERA July 11.2 - 3.09 ERA Aug 12.2 - 3.55 ERA Sept 8.2 - 4.15 ERA We are over thinking what Ryan Pressly himself has told us is the a result of Houston coaching staff.
  11. SomeGuy
    Ryan Pressly says it was the Houston coaching and analytic dept. That's his opinion. At the time of the trade he was averaging an appearance every 2 games (pace for 81 games)with the Twins and that did decrease to an appearance every 2.3 games with Houston (pace of 70.4 games) But by this theory his 2017 would have been much better when he totaled 57 appearances over the entire healthy season (64 appearances if you include his demotion to AAA). Or in 2016 when he had a similar appearances per game to his Houston use of 2.25 (72Games), he was not elite in either of these seasons. “Honestly,” Pressly said, “it’s the preparation of the [Astros’] analytics department. They tell us what works and what’s not going to work — the percentages, how to set up your mix of pitches, how to attack hitters.” “Every team has an analytics department, and this is no knock on the Twins, but seeing the time [the Astros] put in and the scouting reports you’re given, it’s like, ‘Whoa.’ It’s a different level,” Pressly said. “You kind of see, ‘Wow, if I just pitch a little more to this percentage instead of that percentage I can have some better results.’ When I came over here, they were like, ‘Look, your curveball is your best pitch. Everyone tells you your best pitch should be your fastball. But with the amount of spin you have on the ball, you need to throw that more, and it will set up your fastball even more.’ ”
  12. SomeGuy
    So what your saying is that before a great 10 game stretch prior to his trade, his ERA was at 4.14 with the 2018 Twins. Houston unleashed a completely different beast just like they did with Verlander, Cole, Osuna, and Morton. The player that Houston just resigned is not the same player the Twins traded. He was good but not one of the most elite relief pitchers in the game. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/15/magic-dust-spin-rates-buy-in-how-astros-make-good-pitchers-even-better/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c427047cf821
  13. SomeGuy
    Ryan Pressly was good but not elite until he joined Houston. He has publicly credited Houston coaching as the reason he was so good last year. If we are talking about replacing the 2018 pre-Houston output or his career 3.54 ERA/3.56FIP then losing him is much more reasonable. If Blake Parker can replicate his 2018 ERA (Not a given but possible) we will have essentially replaced Ryan Pressly. If Romero, Mejia or another newcomer in the bullpen can manage a 3.50 ERA we will have essentially replaced Ryan Pressly. I like the direction our analytics is going but I'm not ready to say we would have the same results with Pressly that Houston had immediately with him. 2018 Twins 3.40 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 2.95 FIP, 8.7 H/9, 0.9HR/9, 3.6 BB/9 Astros 0.77 ERA, 0.600 WHIP, 1.49 FIP, 4.2 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 1.2 BB/9 1.1 of his 1.9 fWAR was with Houston in 23.1 innings, he managed 0.8 in 47.2 innings with us. Had he continued on his Twins pace he would have had a 1.2 fWAR and been ranked 39th among relievers. Still a great mark but Houston deserves a lot of credit here.
  14. SomeGuy
    It shouldn't be too long that he is out. He is playing in the minor league "B" games already. Opening day hasn't been ruled out yet. Sounds like he is on track to only miss the first week or so if any time at all.
  15. SomeGuy
    That makes 4 contracts of at least 260M this offseason. All 4 are in the top 6 for largest contracts ever. $1,320,000,000 total for 4 players.
  16. SomeGuy
    I love Gardenhire but Francona is light years ahead of Gardy. He instantly made the Indians a competitor. 68 wins the year before Francona, 92 wins with Francona. They have been a competitor ever since he took over in 2013. He also won MOY twice since then. Francona hasn't had a losing season since 2000. Continuing that this season is about the safest bet you can make. How will he be exposed this year? BTW he did win another World Series after 2004. You say he hasn't won anything since 2004.
  17. SomeGuy
    Trade Rumors had this a couple days ago. Sounds dead. SATURDAY: Extension talks are off for the time being, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who tweets that the Twins and Gibson didn’t come close to a deal during their discussions.
  18. SomeGuy
    The 3 options teams face are buy, stand pat, and sell at the deadline. I am fairly certain that teams in the 5-10 games back range will no longer see stand pat as an option. Their choice will be do we buy heavily and try to catch the teams that are also buying (This risks losing prospects for what can very easily be a non playoff scenario) or they could sell while they have the chance and build for the future. We have seen how teams view risk these days. We have also seen how teams view the importance of building for the future. I think there will be more sellers.
  19. SomeGuy
    So you're flat out against all trades and not just the August deadline? Its the final month of the season. People don't play baseball for location security. Travel and possible relocation is part of the job description. The August deadline would buy them one more month in their "desired" location than if the teams just decide to trade them in July instead. I like to imagine that somewhere, deep down, winning is important to professional baseball players.
  20. SomeGuy
    Why would players not like the August deadline? Don't they care about winning? Verlander leaving Detroit for Houston seems like a best case scenario for him. Trade prices will not increase if more teams are forced into selling earlier. There will likely be more players available at the July deadline. Buying teams would have more options. Economics says that more sellers + less buyers = lower prices. This won't have much of an effect on the off season. Veterans if anything will have a harder time than the last 2 off seasons due to increased fears of injuries. This did not help on that front. This rule change benefits no one.
  21. SomeGuy
    I believe more teams will sell in July, it becomes the only time to decide. If you are 6-10 games back you have to decide to sell or hope everything breaks right. I believe teams will see selling as the better option if they cant fall back on the August trades. Yes teams will try to be prepared for injuries. But if you find yourself in a close race and a key player goes down, that August deadline was nice. I'm not saying that teams should depend on using the august deadline each season. I'm saying it had a purpose, it benefitted teams in need. A lot can happen in the last 60 days, a long time to only have your prospects as your backup. The reason for removing it still is not clear to me. No one benefits from removing it. And there is a correlation between age and number of DL trips. Older players are more likely to get injured.
  22. SomeGuy
    I don't like the automated balls and strike calls. That could has some trickling effects throughout the game. Pitch framing is obsolete, the catcher can focus almost entirely on the baserunners. etc. Would an ump still stand there? Would the catchers start using different crouch positions to quicken their throw to 2nd? I also kind of like the human effect. Make pitchers adjust if the ump doesn't give a certain part of the plate. I like having the catcher trying to trick them with pitch framing. If we get rid of this ump duty, we might as well get rid of them all and have a team of computer guys call every single aspect of play from off field computers.
  23. SomeGuy
    More teams will take themselves out of contention in July. That's not a win for anybody. If the argument is that teams need to be prepared for injures, and data says that older players break down more often.....It will place even more of an emphasis on younger (cheaper) players. Older players will be even more limited in Free Agency. Just one more reason to lean toward the drastic rebuild strategy to ensure they have a bounty of young core players before actively attempting to compete. Doesn't seem like players or fans are benefiting...
  24. SomeGuy
    You actually want these?? New mound visit limits are effective for 2019 down from 6 to 5.
  25. SomeGuy
    Josh Donaldson would count as a star in my opinion. Other 2018 August guys like Ryan Madson, Curtis Granderson, and Gio Gonzalez are legitimate guys to get in a late season trade. Maybe you prefer Justin Verlander joining the Astros to win the World Series in 2017. (That's two MVP winners traded in August in the last 2 years) Other famous August trades like Justin Upton, John Smoltz, Larry Walker, Adrian Gonzalez would be star caliber. Twins have used it in the past as well to obtain Bert Blylevin, get rid of Josh Willingham, Delmon Young, etc. 3 batter minimum will negatively effect pitching strategy no matter how you look at it. There will be a change in pitching strategy yes but pitching overall just became worse. In the playoffs (especially recently) teams often have another player ready the moment a reliever enters the game. It is no longer even an option.
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