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SomeGuy

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Everything posted by SomeGuy

  1. SomeGuy
    I believe more teams will sell in July, it becomes the only time to decide. If you are 6-10 games back you have to decide to sell or hope everything breaks right. I believe teams will see selling as the better option if they cant fall back on the August trades. Yes teams will try to be prepared for injuries. But if you find yourself in a close race and a key player goes down, that August deadline was nice. I'm not saying that teams should depend on using the august deadline each season. I'm saying it had a purpose, it benefitted teams in need. A lot can happen in the last 60 days, a long time to only have your prospects as your backup. The reason for removing it still is not clear to me. No one benefits from removing it. And there is a correlation between age and number of DL trips. Older players are more likely to get injured.
  2. SomeGuy
    I don't like the automated balls and strike calls. That could has some trickling effects throughout the game. Pitch framing is obsolete, the catcher can focus almost entirely on the baserunners. etc. Would an ump still stand there? Would the catchers start using different crouch positions to quicken their throw to 2nd? I also kind of like the human effect. Make pitchers adjust if the ump doesn't give a certain part of the plate. I like having the catcher trying to trick them with pitch framing. If we get rid of this ump duty, we might as well get rid of them all and have a team of computer guys call every single aspect of play from off field computers.
  3. SomeGuy
    More teams will take themselves out of contention in July. That's not a win for anybody. If the argument is that teams need to be prepared for injures, and data says that older players break down more often.....It will place even more of an emphasis on younger (cheaper) players. Older players will be even more limited in Free Agency. Just one more reason to lean toward the drastic rebuild strategy to ensure they have a bounty of young core players before actively attempting to compete. Doesn't seem like players or fans are benefiting...
  4. SomeGuy
    You actually want these?? New mound visit limits are effective for 2019 down from 6 to 5.
  5. SomeGuy
    Josh Donaldson would count as a star in my opinion. Other 2018 August guys like Ryan Madson, Curtis Granderson, and Gio Gonzalez are legitimate guys to get in a late season trade. Maybe you prefer Justin Verlander joining the Astros to win the World Series in 2017. (That's two MVP winners traded in August in the last 2 years) Other famous August trades like Justin Upton, John Smoltz, Larry Walker, Adrian Gonzalez would be star caliber. Twins have used it in the past as well to obtain Bert Blylevin, get rid of Josh Willingham, Delmon Young, etc. 3 batter minimum will negatively effect pitching strategy no matter how you look at it. There will be a change in pitching strategy yes but pitching overall just became worse. In the playoffs (especially recently) teams often have another player ready the moment a reliever enters the game. It is no longer even an option.
  6. SomeGuy
    Moving the actual deadline would probably be better. More competitive teams later into the season. Would probably mean less return for the selling team though. Might make the other broken system of the qualifying offer more appealing to teams. I think small markets might also be negatively affected too. if payroll is keeping them from grabbing a rental on an expensive contract that would be quite a bit cheaper a month later.
  7. SomeGuy
    I think it is ultimately a bad thing if a team has to call up someone from AAA to replace an elite player especially near playoff time. At least they could try to land a decent player in the old system. At the end of August you are over 150 games in, one big injury can cripple a lot of teams. That team could already be in a position to clinch a spot and you now have a weak team in the playoffs. It could also mean one less team fighting for those last spots. The later deadline was a nice emergency plan for anything that you really can't plan for. I don't see the positive in this rule change.
  8. SomeGuy
    I did because it seems Manfred actually believes people tune out like this.
  9. SomeGuy
    Saying that a GM should always have a suitable replacement for a star level player might be a stretch. Especially considering the disparity of payrolls around the league. Tampa Bay can't reasonably have an answer to losing a star player in August. Doesn't seem like you have an answer for who benefits from ditching the August waiver deadline. The 3 batter rule is designed to eliminate a strategy so GMs making an adjustment is really a backwards step. Doesn't really have anything to do with the quoted trade deadline comment either. I think it opens the door for those moments when you realize oh this pitcher clearly doesn't have it tonight. Guess we are stuck with him for at least 3 batters. Might suck for those end of game or playoff scenarios when you always want someone ready in relief.
  10. SomeGuy
    Have you ever tuned out after a pitching change? It doesn't take that long, about 2 minutes? People with attention spans that low probably aren't going to like baseball to begin with.
  11. SomeGuy
    Game 7, game is on the line. Your new pitcher can't find the strike zone. Bases loaded. Without the August waiver trades, teams will likely decide to sell earlier. Fringe teams that might have given it one last chance and then tried to sell a couple pieces at the waiver deadline will be facing a sell now or miss the opportunity entirely scenario. Seems like MLB should want the most trades possible so that the playoffs have as many good players as possible. This also opens up scenarios where 1st place teams cannot get emergency help if a key injury occurs in August. A team might be all but clinched but suddenly without their star player, then you have a dead team in the playoffs. This is the rule that makes the least sense to me, who benefits and how?
  12. SomeGuy
    I think A lot depends on the degree of his bounce back. If it is close to his career average 20-25 HR .258/.294/.444 then maybe we have interest in another 1-2 year deal. But having Marwin Gonzalez around for 2020 might be enough of a contingency for if Gordon or who ever still isn't quite ready. If he does manage to go full 2017 rebound than I think a team will bite on a long contract and it won't be the Twins. Other than 2017 he has only posted an OPS+ over 100 one other time and that wasn't a full season (86 games). I'm not sold that 2017 was who he really is. I'm viewing a full 2017 rebound as an unlikely scenario for the time being. I think this signing was a combination of 2 needs. Schoop needed 1 year to prove he is better than his 2018 and the Twins needed a decent fill in. Maybe a bounce back changes our plans but I doubt it.
  13. SomeGuy
    I think the biggest knock against Torreyes is his walk rate. 2.0% in 2018 and 3.3 in 2017. Where as Adrianza had 6.6 in '18 and 8.6% in '17. It drags his OBP down to below average and Adrianza outpaced him both seasons. But Torreyes seems like a good hitter otherwise. I think I prefer Torreyes over the other options for the last roster spot. I do believe that one of Adrianza/Torreyes needs to make the team though. Our infield defense seems like it has the potential to be the worst in the league. If we roll with Gonzalez, and Astudillo once Sano is back, we won't have a single good infielder on the roster.
  14. SomeGuy
    January 31st there was a report (tweet) from Paul Crane of Scout's Honor that he heard the Twins had the highest offer on Kimbrel at 3 years 45M. Could easily have been BS since none of the usual story breakers like Jon Heyman reported anything similar.
  15. SomeGuy
    I'm arguing the 2.8%increase in K% is injury related and not lack of focus or declining trend. It is fair to expect an increase after the time he missed. Just because your already prone to strike outs doesn't mean you aren't going to have even more trouble after a major injury. Your "June 1st 2017 until he got injured" BB% theory was mostly a terrible July of 5.6%, June and August were close to his 2016-2018 average. He is not the first player to have a bad month. Ups and Downs can be expected for young players. So when he puts together an 18.6 BB% for the month of April 2017, that is not the real Sano. Just like a 5.6% in July 2017 is not the real Sano. (The 2017 BB% trend of a good start and poor June/July was almost identical to his 2016 trend FYI) Staking your perception on a half season of his rookie year isn't the best approach. Especially when he was out performing his AA BB% and on base%.
  16. SomeGuy
    His 15.8% BB rate in his rookie season is easily his highest. The next season it dropped to 10.9% which is very similar to the 10.4 he posted last season. Seems like that rookie season was the anomaly. That 15.8% is actually higher than the 13% he was posting in AA from 2013 to 2015. 2015 15.8% 2016 10.9 2017 11.2 2018 10.4 Strike out rates didn't drastically increase either. Less than 3% increase after a major injury isn't that surprising. 2015 35.5% 2016 36.0% 2017 35.8 2018 38.5
  17. SomeGuy
    We have enough good SS prospects where 3B shouldn't be too much of an issue in terms of minor league depth. If Sano isn't the answer long term we should be able to convert one of them into a decent 3B. Luke Raley gets good reviews at 1B and outfield maybe he could handle 3rd. He is also praised for his arm strength. Sano and Gonzalez aren't setting the bar very high for a defensive 3B anyway, both are below average.
  18. SomeGuy
    Gonsalves, Berrios and Perez are showing upticks in velocity already under this pitching coach but is there any word on Addison Reed's current velocity? Does it look like he will be able to reclaim the 2-3 MPH he lost last season?
  19. SomeGuy
    What is the Mets motivation to sell? They should be pretty competitive this year (projected by Fangraphs to win 84 games, 2 more games than the Twins). If anything they should be buying come deadline time after their new GM has been stating all offseason how they are in win now mode. I would think the Mets are looking to extend him too, even though Wheeler says they haven't talked to him yet.
  20. SomeGuy
    Side note on the Robbie Grossman sprint speed comparison. Schoop is still classified by statcast as slightly above average sprint speed. Kepler 27.9 ft/s Cave 27.8 Grossman 27.7 Schoop 27.5 26.9 is defined as league average by Statcast. Mauer 26.0 Astudillo 24.5
  21. SomeGuy
    I don't think he was "spiked." Cut on metal stairs, required 12 stitches. Sano sustained the injury during the parade celebrating his Dominican Winter League championship with his hometown team, Estrellas Orientales. A teammate slipped on a substance on the stage and bumped into Sano, who scraped his leg on metal stairs. Both Sano and head athletic trainer Tony Leo characterized the wound, which originally required 12 stitches, as "80 percent" healed.-Do-Hyoung Park Sano plans to get going next week, "But it's just a setback and we'll get it going next week."
  22. SomeGuy
    Its probably not fair to say "we had the means to make it happen with Grandal." He flat out told us he had no desire to sign here and according to reports we had the best offer on the table.
  23. SomeGuy
    Gonzalez grades pretty well at 1B. 1B and OF are the only positive UZR fielding positions for him. He has played 191 games at 1B in his career and 55 over the last 2 years. Sano has played 22, Garver 8, and Kepler 3 (4.1 innings) in their careers. I don't understand why players like Kepler should be ahead of him at 1B. Kepler is one of the best defensive right fielders out there. Moving him to 1B would be a downgrade defensively. I would argue that any OF prospect should be considered for 1st before unseating Kepler. Just because Kepler can play 1st doesn't mean he should. Gonzalez grades similar to Sano at 3rd in UZR and much better than him at 1st. Seems like the best case here would be to keep Sano at 3rd and Gonzalez at 1st if both are in the lineup. Then you have Austin who likely won't make the team and Garver who should probably be the primary catcher.
  24. SomeGuy
    Machado isn't a Boras client but I agree, the agents have done a good job of making it look like only the owners are at fault for players signing late.
  25. SomeGuy
    His launch angles per year are below. He is below MLB average in Launch Angle and his 2018 season was flatter than his 2017 season. Maybe it is just a coincidence but his best season was his highest Launch angle season. 2015 - 9.1 2016 - 6.5 2017 - 10.9 2018 - 10.0 MLB average - 10.9
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