SomeGuy
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Everything posted by SomeGuy
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This is a what if scenario and we don't really know where it will be by then but they are still better than what we face by a large margin. Cleveland could be eliminated by then or have a wild card locked up already. Washington will probably be in the thick of the wild card hunt at that point too. They have the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, and Indians left. They would really want to make sure they have home field advantage too.
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Gibson missed under 2 weeks so basically the minimum amount of time you can spend on the IL. We held Cruz, Kepler and Cave out with very minor injuries to play it safe. Everyone is acting like they are on life support unlikely to contribute ever again.
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I don't think it really matters where those teams are when Cleveland plays them. No matter how you slice it they are better teams than Detroit, Chicago, and KC. 3 teams that have not had anything to play for in months.
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Odds of winning the division are still at 95%, postseason odds are at 98.9%. A collapse is highly unlikely. Gibson and Cruz are back, Kepler and Cave are listed as "any day." 13 of 17 games are against the awful Tigers, Royals, and White Sox. Cleveland has series against Twins, Phillies, and Nationals left (9 of 15 games are against contenders compared to our 4 of 17).
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Will likely miss the rest of the season. Expected to have surgery today. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/twins-byron-buxton-shoulder-surgery.html
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You should include the Yankees in these. They hit 2 and are now 9 behind us. Lets get a McGwire/Sosa vibe going.
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Is Max Kepler Becoming the Next Christian Yelich?
SomeGuy commented on Patrick Wozniak's blog entry in Patrick Wozniak's Blog
Joc Pederson with better defense.- 7 comments
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Dyson Drama: The Case of the Mystery Injury
SomeGuy replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He says it began the 2nd series after the break, he allowed 2 hits in 7 shutout innings in that time before the trade. I can see where he would think he could continue to pitch through it. I bet he wasn't wincing after each pitch, I don't think its uncommon for pitchers to pitch through a little soreness throughout the season. He should have told someone earlier (especially as he is going thru our medical exams to trade for him!) but its likely he didn't view this at the time as "I'm injured" more of I'm a little sore but still capable of pitching. At least he did mention it instead of insisting that he was fine. I would have been mad if he pulled a Brian Dozier on us when he declared after the season that his knee was bothering him for the entire season. -
What Happened to Eddie Rosario’s Defense?
SomeGuy replied to Andrew Thares's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I doubt Rosario is playing through a nagging injury. This team has been extremely conservative with injuries.- 71 replies
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Twins Acquire RHP Sam Dyson from Giants
SomeGuy replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
They share Texas with only one other team, Texas has the 2nd highest population in the US. Over 29 million people. MN has 5.6M, IA has 3.1M SD and ND both have under 1M. Houston is in a whole different league of market. They get a ton of fans from Louisiana too, maybe Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma, or Mexico as well.- 206 replies
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Trade Deadline: What if the Twins Do Nothing?
SomeGuy replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Wouldn't adding players mean that they don't believe in this team? We are on pace to win 99 games.- 441 replies
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Trade Deadline: What if the Twins Do Nothing?
SomeGuy replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Odorizzi, Gibson, Pineda, and Rosario leaving are not sure things either.... Our farm system is in a great spot as a whole and is not dependent on what 2 or 3 of them do.- 441 replies
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Trade Deadline: What if the Twins Do Nothing?
SomeGuy replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
What makes you think the window closes so soon?- 441 replies
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No he doesn't. Only a team in contention would want a rental like Schoop and they are unlikely to part with a reliever as a contender. We might be able to get a minor leaguer for him.
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The Indians have an opening at DH if they don't like his defense. But its still Matt Chapman level output in the middle of the offense. Jose Abreu is also comparable 2018 .265/.325/.473, 2019 .263/.300/.475
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The Cleveland rotation should be fine without Bauer though...Salazar returns Thursday and Kluber is starting a rehab assignment shortly. They will probably be rusty but there is a decent chance they will be replacing 2019 Bauer with a pitcher a bit better than 0 WAR. 2020 might look something like Kluber, Clevinger, Bieber, Salazar, Carrasco/Plesac/Allen/Plutko. They dealt from strength and got a haul in return. Reyes is only 23 years old and has a young career line of .266/.326/.519. He might not maintain that level but Matt Chapman is comparable at .263/.343/.504. Add in Puig for 2019 and the decent prospects and it looks like a win for Cleveland.
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Twins Moving on From SP Trade Targets?
SomeGuy replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Agree, what I don't get about the Stroman trade is that they admit that the 2020 goal is winning but can they trade Syndergaard AND upgrade the 2020 team? It would take at least one talented MLB player or multiple impact prospects that are close to MLB ready. I don't see a contender giving up key pieces to their current or 2020 team to get him. They should trade Wheeler and keep Thor but who knows with the Mets. Their best bet on Thor is the Yankees with Clint Frazier and/or the injured Andujar but that seems unlikely too. Going from Thor to Stroman is already a negative plus they lose a year of control, they would need to win the trade by that much more to upgrade 2020 IMO. I think the media is blowing this up like they are for Bauer rumors. They keep quoting "one rival executive" who says they really want to trade Thor but they have also quoted a rival executive who got the sense that they were trying for a 2019 wildcard spot. Every year they have to play up unlikely trades to get some clicks, fortunately we haven't had the "could Mike Trout be traded" discussion this year. -
Series Preview: Reeling in the Fish
SomeGuy replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
They have good pitching, their starters ERA ranks 9th in MLB. Caleb Smith gets all the attention but Zac Gallen and Jordan Yamamoto are pretty tough matchups too.- 12 replies
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I don't think the Mets would be interested in Schoop as a rental. They would probably rather let anybody play 2nd and get a piece that impacts 2020 or later. They should see Boyd over Syndergaard as a big downgrade and only gain 1 extra year of control. They would require some serious prospects or other MLB ready talent to be okay with this. The Tigers would also need some serious prospects to lose Boyd and take on Cano's contract (which they shouldn't have any interest in doing). I think the Twins would be the one fronting the prospects in this scenario and it would probably benefit them the most to ignore the 3rd team aspect and just go Thor for prospects.
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Agreed, there are many teams with starting pitching needs that outweigh ours, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Phillies, Red Sox, Braves, Cardinals, etc. Teams like the Padres and Angels are also looking to upgrade 2020. There should be stiff competition for the handful of available starters. I think it would have to be more than a rental for us to even try and it would take a lot to beat out these other teams. I expect another reliever or two. We might go for a high level reliever but it would probably be more in the Romo, May caliber which I wouldn't consider a bad thing.
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This is what I am thinking too. Grabbing Stroman and trading Syndergaard is a downgrade on paper. They could restock their farm system in a trade but the Stroman grab makes it look like 2020 is very much in play. Are they going to get a prospect package that benefits 2020 more than Syndergaard would? A rotation of DeGrom, Sydergaard, Stroman, Matz, and Vargas would be very formidable. Trade Rumors points out how weird it is that they traded for a groundball pitcher with one of the worst infield defenses. I kind of think the Agent-turned-GM just doesn't really know what he is doing. I also think their desire to trade Thor might be blown out of proportion and is only a "if we are blown away" situation i.e. Lewis and Kirilloff. I don't think it is health or personal reasons between player and team.
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Those players were signed in a period of uncertainty for us though. We were still trying to assess the core we had. I think they take a different approach this offseason. Looking at each individually looks a lot differently than lumping the length of contract together as a philosophy. Cruz is one of the best hitters out there but also 38 years old. Cron was a waiver claim that was a clear upgrade from what we had and cheap enough to make him hard to pass up. Schoop wanted a 1 year deal to reestablish his value and we wanted to bridge the gap to Arraez, Gordon, etc. But I'm not against having Bauer and possibly signing him to 1 year deals. I think that is an error in judgement on his part. He should be looking for a long term deal IMO. From the Indians perspective though I think they wait to trade him in the offseason or keep him.
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Twins Won't Rule Out Trading For Lance Lynn
SomeGuy replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Lance Lynn credited his Yankee turnaround to our pitching coach last year. He made an adjustment on where he stood on the rubber and found his location then was traded. https://www.mlb.com/news/lance-lynn-changes-make-interesting-free-agent-c301119518 -
Whats up with his slider? He is throwing it half as often as he used to (From over 20% 3 years in a row down to 12%) and it is getting lit up. Fastball velocity is right in line with career but slider is down 3-4 MPH compared to last 2 years. Velocity 2015 88.58 2016 91.51 2017 93.15 2018 92.54 2019 89.19 Slugging against 2015 .095 2016 .229 2017 .174 2018 .233 2019 .493 Isolated Power 2015 .000 2016 .064 2017 .000 2018 .030 2019 .254

