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SomeGuy

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Everything posted by SomeGuy

  1. SomeGuy
    6 of the last 9 outings for duffey have been hitless. 8 of the last 9 outings have been scoreless.
  2. SomeGuy
    Yeah extreme lengths to discount a 1.75 ERA......he did exactly what you want a reliever to do for the entire month of May. He can't control what the situation is before he enters a game. I even pointed out that he out pitched his expected outcome. But there is no way you can spin that into anything but a great month.
  3. SomeGuy
    Seems like you are going to extreme lengths to discount Colome. Might there be a bias? He gave up 3 runs (2 earned) the entire month and 2 of them were in one game. Tremendous month!
  4. SomeGuy
    When you lose more games than you win then you will not be given a ton of "high leverage" situations. It seems his entering while losing games are occuring after a few days off. It could be he is being scheduled to pitch on days regardless of the outcome. I look at who he enters the game to face in many of the situations he was called on to pitch when their mid order guys were due up. Either way to say he was personally responsible for 4 loses in May was not a good take. He deserves to be on a list of 5 best Twins in May.
  5. SomeGuy
    His Ground ball rate has risen quite a bit in May, over 49%. His career is 41.7%. His line drive rate seems to be what took the hit as it dropped to 7% in May down from his usual 20-22% he has been having with the Twins. I believe it is the wrist more than old age. His exit velocity and hard hit% were not off his career marks by this much for the first month. Injuries are way up this year, probably to be expected with the short season last year. League wide offense is also way down this year. I don't think he would fall off this much from old age in so short of a time. If you add up all the offense for all of MLB, the stat line is .236/.312/.393. I don't think anyone would consider that when talking about the average MLB player.
  6. SomeGuy
    I would base it on the landscape of the league more than how many wins we are above or below .500. We are currently 7 games back of a wild card spot. If we can trim that to 5 and pass a few more teams ahead of us, I would say there would be a reason to attempt to grab that last spot.
  7. SomeGuy
    I disagree with the "low leverage" categorization. The closer is a dying role. Personally I'm glad we don't save a pitcher for a moment that may or may not be there for a save situation. 5/19 against the White Sox he entered in the 7th inning trailing 2-1 to face their 2,3 and 4 hitters That was the not low leverage at all. There aren't many instances where he was called on for a blow out game, I count three where the difference was 5 or more runs. 5/30 KC 8th inning losing 5-3 5/25 BAL 8th inning winning 6-3 5/24 BAL 9th winning 8-3 5/22 CLE 10th inning tied 3-3 5/19 CHI 7th losing 2-1 5/18 CHI 7th inning losing 4-2 5/15 OAK 8th inning losing 4-1 5/12 CHI 7th losing 13-7 5/7 DET 7th inning winning 4-3 5/5 TEX 7th and 8th inning losing 3-1 5/1 KC 9th inning losing 11-3
  8. SomeGuy
    Colome gave up 2 earned runs and was credited with 0 blown saves in May. His Left on base% was 97.2%. He allowed 0 inherited runners to score besides the runner on 2nd rule for extra innings which happened once. He was responsible for 1 loss which was a walk off homerun in the 10th inning against Cleveland. He was our best bullpen pitcher in May.
  9. SomeGuy
    On the plus side Mitch Garver had a tremendous May. .281 ave/.428 On base%/.579 Slug%/1.017 OPS Also shout out to the new bullpen additions Hansel Robles and Alex Colome. Even though both were outperforming their underlying numbers in May. Robles 2.51 ERA 10.05 K/9 (horrendous 6.28 walks per 9, 3.89FIP 4.54 xFIP) Colome 1.74 ERA 9.58 K/9 (4.67 FIP, 3.98 xFIP)
  10. SomeGuy
    Eliminate the runner at 2nd in extra innings. Eliminate the minimum batter requirement for pitchers. I would like to have the same rules between AL and NL regarding DH. I would prefer no DH for added strategy but I realize that very few people share that view. My desire for parity between the leagues is strong enough to be on board with universal DH. Go back to the previous rules of expanding the roster in September to the 40 man roster. Basically undo the Manfred era rules.
  11. SomeGuy
    IL placements are up 30% compared to this point of 2019 excluding covid IL trips according to Baseball Prospectus. Ken Rosenthal compared the first month of 2021 to the first month of 2019 a few weeks ago and found that there were almost twice as many soft tissue injuries like hamstring, quad, oblique injuries than the first month of 2019. Arm and elbow injuries were up 19%. Rosenthal has the IL placements for the first month of 2021 being 19% higher than the first month of 2019 so the Baseball Prospectus data would indicate injuries are happening more often as the season goes on. I guess the good news could be that maybe this isn't typical Josh Donaldson (or Buxton) is always injured and more of a everyone is struggling to stay healthy after the crazy year.
  12. SomeGuy
    Yeah he has been fine this year. His average exit velocity are right in line with his career numbers. His hard hit% is higher than normal. All said he is aging really well. His only concern is that he gets injured. He won't have the MVP seasons he used to have but no one really expected that and he wasn't paid like we were expecting any more than we are getting. I don't see anything wrong with the signing yet aside from the bad luck of a pandemic knocking out most of his youngest season with us.
  13. SomeGuy
    I would trade Pineda for the opposite reason, we don't know we can re-sign him. He is probably our most valuable chip after Cruz and I think we have to cash in. Probably doesn't hurt our chances at him in the offseason either. He knows how this works and he would probably prefer a playoff run to seeing this out with the Twins. The big factor on re-signability is how competitive the 2022 Twins will appear to Free Agents.
  14. SomeGuy
    One thing to consider when looking at Twins offensive numbers. Offense is way down across MLB so far. It is picking up lately but the league average stat line would be considered a poor hitter. 2021 league average .236 batting ave/ .312 On-base%/ ,394 Slug%/ .706 OPS/ 24.2K% (twins have 6 players with an OPS higher than .706 and at least 89 plate appearances. 8 players if the plate appearances is lowered to include Kirilloff and Larnach) 2019 League average .252/ .323/ .435/ .758/ 23.0 K%
  15. SomeGuy
    I would be happy with a deadline similar to 2018. I doubt we get any true difference maker for who we are going to trade but probably some decent value. The main question for the deadline is how young are the returning prospects going to be? We might not be improving the 2022 or '23 team with this deadline if we maximize our returns. Cruz to the Blue Jays would be fun to watch. That would be a powerhouse offense. I seriously doubt there is any chance to get Nate Pearson or Alek Manoah from them. Toronto might be interested in Pineda too but I still don't see them parting with a great prospect. We will probably have to settle for younger or less talented prospects.
  16. SomeGuy
    Runners in scoring position this season .296 batting average and .382 on base% 11 RBI
  17. SomeGuy
    Toronto would be a great fit for Cruz.
  18. SomeGuy
    Not predicting a WS win just saying its not over 30 games into the season. If this were a football game there would still be time left in the 1st quarter. First 25 games Division winners after bad starts 9-16: 2015 Rangers (finished 88-74) 9-16: 2006 Twins (finished 96-66) 10-15: 2006 Padres (finished 88-74) 10-15: 2005 Yankees (finished 95-67) Wild Card winners 8-17: 2001 Athletics (finished 102-60) 10-15: 2014 Pirates (finished 88-74) 10-15: 2009 Rockies (finished 92-70) 10-15: 2007 Rockies (finished 90-73)* First 50 games Division winners 22-28: 2013 Dodgers (finished 92-70) 22-28: 2012 Athletics (finished 94-68) 22-28: 2007 Cubs (finished 85-77) 22-28: 1996 Cardinals (finished 88-74) 23-27: 2018 Dodgers (finished 92-71) 23-27: 2015 Blue Jays (finished 93-69) 23-27: 2012 Tigers (finished 88-74) 23-27: 2006 Twins (finished 96-66) 23-27: 2006 Athletics (finished 93-69) Wild Card winners 18-32: 2005 Astros (finished 89-73) 19-31: 2019 Nationals (finished 93-69) 20-30: 2009 Rockies (finished 92-70) 21-29: 2007 Yankees (finished 94-68) 21-29: 2003 Marlins (finished 91-71) 21-29: 1995 Yankees (finished 79-65) 23-27: 2014 Pirates (finished 88-74) 23-27: 2008 Brewers (finished 90-72) 23-27: 2007 Rockies (finished 90-73) Add to the fact that our division still looks pretty weak. The Indians look really weak on offense(26th in offense just ahead of Baltimore and Seattle). the good 2/3 of the White Sox outfield are going to miss most if not all of the season. I think the Twins are better than they are playing and I don't think anyone is capable of running away with the division.
  19. SomeGuy
    The rebuliding Marlins no less, in the middle of gutting their lineup...
  20. SomeGuy
    On this date in 2019 the Washington Nationals were 14-21 with the worst bullpen in all of baseball. They went on to win the World Series.
  21. SomeGuy
    I always say that using old stats like wins, ERA, runs, RBI, etc. is like a gambler going to a slot machine that just paid off and saying "this machine is hot." When they should be playing blackjack. I think those stats are important but they rely heavily on other factors rather than the players ability.
  22. SomeGuy
    Buxton is in a little bit of a slump at the moment now that I look at it. I didn't expect him to be the monster he was in April but not as bad his May has been either. Its still too early to take stats too seriously. April 68 at bats (74% of his at bats) .426/.466/1.363 8 HR 20.5K% wRC+ 279 May 24 at bats (26% of his AB) .208/.240/.417 1 HR 32.0K% wRC+ 81
  23. SomeGuy
    I did mean far off as in how far apart the two sides likely were, not to suggest that either side was wrong. Yeah a rich team would be more willing to make that bet. Realistically the Twins probably wouldn't have gone much further than what they gave Kepler for a Buxton deal. I think both sides came to the conclusion that the early re-sign was not in the cards, both sides needed to see/do more to get what they wanted.
  24. SomeGuy
    Imagine the comment threads if we did resign him long term two seasons ago. It shouldn't come as a surprise that the Twins did not work out a contract for Buxton. He would have been really dumb to accept a team friendly deal given his ability. The Twins would have been really dumb to give him a player friendly deal given his past performance and especially injury history. Neither side would have met in the middle of what they perceived the value to have been 2 years ago because there was good reason for both to be so far off. For as good as he has been we are still waiting to see if he can get his second season with 100+ games. He has been injured twice already this season but luckily both appear to be minor.
  25. SomeGuy
    When he breaks out you can pretend that he "figured it out" or speculate on what changed but the numbers were there all along.
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