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SomeGuy

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Everything posted by SomeGuy

  1. SomeGuy
    The starting pitchers did their part. Odorizzi left at 82 pitches by the way, being pulled in that situation is out of his control. Saying that we can't win with those results from our starters is false.
  2. SomeGuy
    But we got nice starts from the returning Berrios and Odorizzi in games 1 and 3. Combined 3 earned runs against the best offense. And our hottest starting pitcher was serving a suspension.
  3. SomeGuy
    The A's have 2 guaranteed contracts for 2021 for a combined 22M. If they want to trim payroll for the 2020 season they won't do it with a player making about 580K. They just trimmed about 11.8M by non tendering 3 players and another 5.8M with the Profar trade. Do they need to do more? They were already pretty close to last years payroll before this, if anything they can probably add a couple players now. I don't see them trading a player who was top 10 in MVP votes 2 years in a row when he is on a minimum salary. Might be a different story for years 2 or 3 of arbitration. I think he is in Oakland for 2020 and probably 2021 too.
  4. SomeGuy
    Giolito only has one other full season to compare last season to. He was drafted 16th overall (called the best pitcher of his draft but had a recent injury) and was once the #3 prospect in MLB. He hasn't been meh his entire career, he just had a minor adjustment period. Ace has always been his projection.
  5. SomeGuy
    Alex Wood would be my pick for a rebound/underrated candidate. Injured most of 2019 but has been consistently good for 6 seasons before that. One of the younger free agent starters and a lefty. 2013-2018 3.29 ERA and 3.36 FIP 2016-2018 3.29 ERA and 3.39 FIP
  6. SomeGuy
    Is it possible that Lynn was still rebounding from the missed season? FIP 2015 3.44 2016 Did not pitch 2017 4.82 2018 3.84 (4.72 with Twins) 2019 3.13 xFIP 2015 3.90 2016 - 2017 4.75 2018 3.98 (4.49 with Twins) 2019 3.85 And technically the Twins did fix him before the Yankee turnaround. According to Alston, Lynn moved a little closer to the third-base side on the pitching rubber. He also made slight alterations in the way his right foot contacted the slab -- "so he can get into his glutes a little bit more" -- as well as the way his left foot moved toward home plate. Stride length wasn't the issue, Alston and his team determined, so much as the way Lynn's hips worked. "What it allowed him to do was make sure he was connected properly from his top half to his bottom half," Alston said. "That allows the ball to stay on plane just a little bit longer." That should be easy enough to track with Statcast™ data. Did Lynn really move on the rubber in the way that he and Alston said? The answer is yes, noticeably so. With the Twins, Lynn was releasing the ball an average of two feet to the right of the center of the rubber. With the Yankees, that increased to 2.6 feet, so an increase of nearly half a foot. https://www.mlb.com/news/lance-lynn-changes-make-interesting-free-agent-c301119518
  7. SomeGuy
    "We didn’t know that Major League Baseball was going to juice the pill for 2019, but it helped a guy like Schoop to launch dingers at a relatively significant rate." I don't think we can say Schoop hit 23 homeruns solely because of the baseball. He hit 23 in 433 AB. That is pretty much the same as his 2017 32 in 622 AB (5.3% vs 5.1%). The "juiced ball" is a crutch that isn't really used in a balanced matter. Schoop hit homeruns at a close clip to what he has done in the past but he is seen as a juiced ball beneficiary. While Garver more than quadrupled his homerun rate from his previous high (2.3% vs 9.9%) and the baseball is never mentioned in describing his breakout. I'm guessing the baseball had very little to do in either case but it seems to only be used to enforce beliefs that people already had about players..."At the time of his signing I wasn’t too terribly interested in the pact."
  8. SomeGuy
    We don't need to sign multiple starters every year. We just don't need to set our 2021-2023 rotations now. My plan had one multi year signing this offseason and one next offseason. Actually pretty similar to the Astro's plan of getting one starter per season, Verlander in 17, Cole in 18, Grienke in 19. Or the Yankees getting Happ in 2018 and Paxton in 2019. Can you find an example of a team acquiring 3-4 good starting pitchers on long term deals in one offseason? We already got Odorizzi on a 1 year deal. Look for us to add or acquire one multi year deal and another 1 year deal.
  9. SomeGuy
    Technically they can afford to be in this position again next year since they wouldn't be hampered with the multi year deals. Hopefully by this time next year we will know if any of Dubnak, Smeltzer, Graterol, etc. are going to be reliable rotation pieces. We could sign 2 one year deals (probably a multi year deal in there too) and reevaluate this issue again next year when guys like Paxton, Bauer, Robbie Ray, Stroman, and Tanaka are set to be available. Maybe grab one multi year deal now and another multi year deal then. It could be a rotation of Berrios, Multi year deal, one year deal, one year deal, Prospects. Something like Berrios, Wheeler (or Odorizzi or Bumgarner), Hamels, Porcello (or Alex Wood), Graterol.
  10. SomeGuy
    Your argument that they already have Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray until 2024 and 3 of their top 4 prospects are pitchers doesn't really do much for 2020. Only one of those prospects (the worst ranked one) has pitched at AA. Their top prospect missed all of 2019 with Tommy John and has a career 6.12 ERA between Rookie and A+. The other prospect has 18.1 career innings between rookie and A. The Reds shouldn't go into 2020 (or 2021) with plans to use any of these prospects. They can get a poor fielding/decent hitting outfielder without losing a rotation piece, there are a bunch of these players in FA. I doubt they would be excited about Gordon or Blankenhorn and neither player helps their 2020 win now expectations. I don't really want us to pursue Bauer but I think the Reds would pass on this offer.
  11. SomeGuy
    He's had one good season. It was his lone sub 4 ERA and his FIP supports that. From 2014 -2017 he was a 4.30 ERA, 4.04 FIP pitcher and 2019 was 4.48 ERA, 4.34 FIP. With one year left and about an 18M price tag, I wouldn't give up anything for him. There are much better options for the rotation. He's like Archer, potential rarely matches results. Isn't worth gambling on one season.
  12. SomeGuy
    Toronto (of all teams) has already sat down with Odorizzi's agents. If this is an indication of how many teams will be interested, maybe he won't be accepting that QO.
  13. SomeGuy
    Nelson Cruz is an easy regression pick for me. Career high in OPS at 39 years old, highest BA since 2010, highest OBP since 2008.
  14. SomeGuy
    Not really interested in trading that much for one year of Betts and obtaining Price's 32M per year for 3 seasons. Not that I think Price is bad, I think he is overpaid and in decline. That is a lot of money for someone that will be 37 by the end of the deal. There are better options for the rotation. I would put Boston firmly in the win category on that trade.
  15. SomeGuy
    I disagree with the frugal comment. The White Sox have been a top 10 payroll team multiple times in the last decade and even a top 5. The fact that they were even interested in Machado and Harper says they have more capital potential than us. They have a much better shot at landing someone like Cole, Strasburg or Rendon than the Twins do. Saying that they had a low payroll the last 3 years, when they had no intentions of winning, is not representative of what a White Sox "trying to win" team will look like. The Astros were 29th or 30th in payroll for 4 straight seasons from 2013 - 2016. Now Houston has about 200M in payroll. Rebuilding teams don't pay for players until they are at the end of the rebuild and the White Sox have reached that point. Like the Twins, they have no long term/high dollar commitments and loads of talented youth. The White Sox are in a good position to do some major spending soon. I expect them to be serious bidders in FA this year, more so than the Twins. They might not be serious contenders until 2021 or later but they should start spending now.
  16. SomeGuy
    I'm not buying this altered baseballs thing. Its such a small sample size compared to the 2019 season. There have been like one regular season day worth of playoff games. Complain all you want about a 99 MPH Sano hit at 27 degrees that went 340 feet. Eric Sogard hit one 98 MPH at 27 degrees and it was a 380 foot homerun in game 4 of the Rays series. There are more than 2 factors in distance a baseball travels. Sano hitting one 70 feet further with the same velocity and angle shouldn't be surprising. August in Texas vs October in New York hmmm. According to baseball reference MLB hit 6776 homeruns in 4848 games, 1.39 Homeruns per game. There have been 52 homeruns in 20 games so far in the playoffs. Considering the homerun total is 2 teams combined we will call it 26 homeruns in 20 games for a per team average (or 52 homeruns in 40 games), that is 1.3 homeruns per game. 1.39 vs 1.3.
  17. SomeGuy
    The problem wasn't really specific to just Sano. Our whole infield was poor defensively. Polanco is tied for dead last (32nd) in UZR at SS with a minimum of 500 innings. (-9.1 UZR) Schoop was 25th of 31 in UZR at 2B with the 500 minimum innings (Arraez had 390 innings at 2B but was even worse in UZR than Schoop, -5.0 UZR for Arraez and -3.7 for Schoop) Cron was 19th of 29 in UZR at 1st with more than 500 innings. (-0.6 UZR) Sano was 29th of 32 at 3rd (-6.7 UZR). Marwin Gonzalez had 291 innings but a decent 2.6 UZR.
  18. SomeGuy
    I don't think the National are going to tear it down (already offered a 7 year contract to Rendon) but it will be interesting to see what the Cubs, A's, and Rockies do.
  19. SomeGuy
    32-37 against teams over .500. The only playoff team with a losing record in those games.
  20. SomeGuy
    I'm guessing that Strasburg will opt out of his contract. Stuff-wise Berrios has a case as being better than these pitchers but from a recent FIP standpoint there isn't much difference between him and Bumgarner, Keuchel, Quintana, Wood, or Wheeler.
  21. SomeGuy
    Yankee rotation is announced. Paxton, Tanaka, Severino. Encarnacion expects to be on the roster and to play game 1. CC will not be on the roster.
  22. SomeGuy
    If all of Adrianza, Arraez, and Gonzalez are healthy then I would leave Astudillo off the roster. They are better fielders and hitters. Astudillo would just be a pinch hitter in this case I would assume, and he would be a decent guy to have pinch hit but.... The one thing our offense doesn't have is a baserunner. Ian Miller getting the last spot is probably my choice. Have him pinch run for almost anyone in the 8th or 9th. It seems more likely that we would have a slow runner at 1st or 2nd late in the game than a guy at 3rd with less than 2 outs where we need someone to make contact.
  23. SomeGuy
    Right now it is projected as Paxton (L), Severino ®, Tanaka ®. The Yankees say that Paxton might be their only "traditional starter" in the playoffs but we will see what exactly that means. Their bullpen will probably get a ton of innings this series. Happ has been told that he is pitching in relief for the playoffs, there is speculation that Happ could be used after an opener for game 4 but we will have to wait and see if that is the case.
  24. SomeGuy
    Ouch, our best OBP hitter (.399) might be replaced by our worst OBP hitter (.299). An .838 OPS replaced by our worst OPS hitter (.678).
  25. SomeGuy
    I think Dyson felt he could pitch through it and didn't tell anyone.
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