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SomeGuy

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Everything posted by SomeGuy

  1. SomeGuy
    The pitchers are also pitching to support the shift they have in place. They try not to give them anything that they can be easily hit the other way. Basically just hit it the other way is easier said than done. If players could beat the shift at will, then it wouldn't make sense to use it. Makes me think hitters can't beat the shift at will. (Some players are exceptions and they don't see as many shifts) MLB.com determined that batting averages are lower with the shift in place but walks and homeruns slightly increased when the shift was on. So in a way that is how hitters are trying to beat the shift. Overall the shift decreased wOBA for the lefties they studied by just .008, the righties they studied were actually better against the shift by .001. Like Ted's article says if the shift is trying to take away my singles I will go for extra bases (launch angle). https://www.mlb.com/news/9-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-shift-c276706888
  2. SomeGuy
    Its not about strike outs. Its about the weak contact he makes outside the zone. He has to realize that with more 3 ball counts he will see more meatballs that he can drive. It is extremely impressive that he can put the bat on the ball no matter where it is but it would still be better to take a ball here and there. Since he is primarily a catcher I have to believe he knows these balls are out of the strike zone.
  3. SomeGuy
    At what point do you as a coach tell Astudillo that he needs cut down on swinging outside the strike zone? At 51.3% he swings at more balls out of the zone than he doesn't. I don't see how he will sustain his success without laying off more pitches. Looking at heat maps of his average/pitch and slugging/pitch at each part of the zone and it is like you would expect, he doesn't make hard contact when he swings out of the zone. Take last night for example 3 of his 4 outs were on pitches out of the zone. All 3 were routine ground balls. As a pitcher the strategy has to become don't throw anything in the zone and let your defense play the weak grounders. I'm not trying to rag on him, I think he could be really good. 100% contact rate on pitches IN the strike zone when he swings (83.8% of the time). He does have the lowest exit velocity on the Twins and is all the way down at 290th in MLB. I think if he could boost his walks rates or make pitchers throw more strikes he would help this and be a beast in on base%.
  4. SomeGuy
    Vasquez deserves more chances, hopefully we don't make a habit out of bringing in rookies with the bases loaded to face the top of the order. That was not a good choice in hindsight. I'm not giving up on De Jong after one bad inning either. Pitching depth is a major strength for us this year. It's not front of the rotation/back of the bullpen depth but we have good depth. If Berrios, Pineda, and Gibson stay mostly healthy and pitch decent we have nothing to worry about. Hildenberger should be a fine bullpen piece. He has battled inconsistencies in his first 2 seasons but I am confident he will have a good year. No signings, no trades (until July), this is our squad. Leave the rotation (with Perez) the way it is until an injury occurs. Our offense will be great and our pitching will be fine (average).
  5. SomeGuy
    Trevor May leads the league in several Statcast categories. He has the lowest Average Exit velocity against with 76.5MPH. He has the lowest hard hit% with 5.6% (only allowed one hit above 95MPH). His Barrels/Plate Appearance is 0.0%. Between May, Rogers, Hildenberger, and Parker it is clear that we have no need for Kimbrel or any other closer candidate. Our bullpen is fine.
  6. SomeGuy
    The Giants apply another patch to their sinking ship. They should have blown it up 2 years ago.
  7. SomeGuy
    We did go 29-26 for those last 2 months of "tanking" last season.
  8. SomeGuy
    Why isn't there a 80-89 wins without playoffs scenario?
  9. SomeGuy
    According to Trade Rumors Gordon has a stomach issue, acute gastritis (inflammation of his stomach lining). Gonsalves has left flexor/pronator strain (throwing elbow).
  10. SomeGuy
    This is a reach, there isn't much of an injury history here....All 3 pitched more than 175 innings last season and made at least 28 starts. The Twins haven't had 3 pitchers reach 175 innings since 2005. Clevinger should also be considered an ace and he pitched 32 games for 200 innings last season. Injuries are always a risk for starters but this team has had great health overall with their star pitchers. Carrasco 192 Innings, 33 games (2 consecutive seasons with 190+ innings, 30+ starts in 3 of last 4 seasons) Bauer 175.1 innings, 28 games (4 consecutive seasons with 175+ innings) Kluber 215 Innings, 33 games ( 5 consecutive seasons with 200+ innings)
  11. SomeGuy
    Average offense at best and poor pitching. Numerous elite prospects are struggling to be average Major League starters. The rotation is bad. Dylan Cease could break this bust trend or be right where the others are and be below average with the occasional dominant game. Their most experienced starter (Ivan Nova) is taking a mid 4 ERA and FIP from the NL into the American League. Good chance their ERA leader in the rotation is a 4+ ERA. Here are the 2018 FIPs for their starters. Keep in mind this team ranked 26th in dWAR last season. Mixing 4 pitchers who struggle in the Fielding Independent Pitching metric with one of the worst fielding teams in MLB is not a good mix. Rodon - 4.95 Lopez - 4.63 Giolito - 5.56 Nova - 4.57 This rebuild is not going according to plan. Jose Abreu remains their only prospect to actually breakout in the big leagues and he is a free agent after this season. 90+ losses is my prediction.
  12. SomeGuy
    Should be an active trade deadline for them. At least the poor Alex Gordon contract ends after this season. That will free up 20M or 21% of their current payroll. Ian Kennedy is another bad contract that they will probably have to wait out (2 more years, 16.5M per year). They seem to be at or near the rock bottom part of their rebuild, the roster is weak with only a few trade candidates. Their farm system is still pretty weak as well but getting better. They should start trending in the right direction in a couple years. Decent small pickups this off season that they will probably try to flip at the deadline.
  13. SomeGuy
    He hasn't pitched since 3/14. I would say there is something there for an injury.
  14. SomeGuy
    His defense is overrated. He gets a ton of praise for how many positions he can field but not much focus on how he is below average everywhere but 1B and corner OF. He is a bat first utility fielder. I bet quite a few players in MLB could play this many positions at a below average level if they were asked to. I doubt he comes anywhere close to his 2017 season offensively (or Escobar of last season). A .250-.260ish batting average with an OPS in the low to mid .700s that can give a lot of the starters rest is what I'm expecting. Still a valuable player. I'm kind of hoping they roll with Adrianza as the starting 3B until Sano returns and Gonzalez rotates among all his positions.
  15. SomeGuy
    Buxton left game with injury after a collision with Xander bogaerts.
  16. SomeGuy
    Seattle could have a decent offense with exciting young guys like Mallex Smith, Domingo Santana, and Tim Beckham joining Encarnacion, Dee Gordon, Mitch Haniger and eventually Kyle Seager. Ryon Healy is young too but has been good 2 of his 3 seasons. A lot of ups and downs for the young guys they have, kind of like the Twins are hoping 2-3 guys put it all together. Their pitching is the question with Gonzalez, Kikuchi, Hernandez and Leake. They would probably need Justice Sheffield to arrive to have any success here. I think people are more down on them than they deserve. A couple young guys take the final step forward and .500 is possible. If there isn't a clear 2nd wildcard and 85 wins gets it like in 2017 then 77-81 Wins wouldn't look too bad. Underdogs for sure but I don't believe they "tanked" as bad as everyone else seems to believe. I see them as pretty close to the Angels.
  17. SomeGuy
    At no point in his career did Pressly suddenly become elite with a lower number of appearances. Except the time he was acquired by the Houston Astros. His fastball velocity remained consistent month to month each season 2016 to 2018.
  18. SomeGuy
    So your argument is that it is a mental thing when he pitches too often or he is physically breaking down? You would think that his velocity/Movement would reflect some sort of change on a month to month change if he was physically affected by his workload. His innings per month isn't really supporting a drastically lower workload. More rest days but longer outings. Would this disqualify him from any sort of defined closer role if you were running the team? In 2017 Pressly pitched 9 innings in april, 9 innings in May. You call this overworked. He pitched 11.2 in July, 16 in July, 11.2 in August. You call this a lower workload. I'm going out on a limb here and saying that he worked on something or had a wake up call with the June demotion to AAA. 2016 also show no signs of overworked in an innings per month standing. Certainly doesn't seem like less equals more. Had he thrown 2/3 of an inning more in June would he have lost that 4 point improvement? April 14.1 innings 3.14ERA May 14.1 - 6.28 ERA June 13.2 - 1.98 ERA July 11.2 - 3.09 ERA Aug 12.2 - 3.55 ERA Sept 8.2 - 4.15 ERA We are over thinking what Ryan Pressly himself has told us is the a result of Houston coaching staff.
  19. SomeGuy
    Ryan Pressly says it was the Houston coaching and analytic dept. That's his opinion. At the time of the trade he was averaging an appearance every 2 games (pace for 81 games)with the Twins and that did decrease to an appearance every 2.3 games with Houston (pace of 70.4 games) But by this theory his 2017 would have been much better when he totaled 57 appearances over the entire healthy season (64 appearances if you include his demotion to AAA). Or in 2016 when he had a similar appearances per game to his Houston use of 2.25 (72Games), he was not elite in either of these seasons. “Honestly,” Pressly said, “it’s the preparation of the [Astros’] analytics department. They tell us what works and what’s not going to work — the percentages, how to set up your mix of pitches, how to attack hitters.” “Every team has an analytics department, and this is no knock on the Twins, but seeing the time [the Astros] put in and the scouting reports you’re given, it’s like, ‘Whoa.’ It’s a different level,” Pressly said. “You kind of see, ‘Wow, if I just pitch a little more to this percentage instead of that percentage I can have some better results.’ When I came over here, they were like, ‘Look, your curveball is your best pitch. Everyone tells you your best pitch should be your fastball. But with the amount of spin you have on the ball, you need to throw that more, and it will set up your fastball even more.’ ”
  20. SomeGuy
    So what your saying is that before a great 10 game stretch prior to his trade, his ERA was at 4.14 with the 2018 Twins. Houston unleashed a completely different beast just like they did with Verlander, Cole, Osuna, and Morton. The player that Houston just resigned is not the same player the Twins traded. He was good but not one of the most elite relief pitchers in the game. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/15/magic-dust-spin-rates-buy-in-how-astros-make-good-pitchers-even-better/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c427047cf821
  21. SomeGuy
    Ryan Pressly was good but not elite until he joined Houston. He has publicly credited Houston coaching as the reason he was so good last year. If we are talking about replacing the 2018 pre-Houston output or his career 3.54 ERA/3.56FIP then losing him is much more reasonable. If Blake Parker can replicate his 2018 ERA (Not a given but possible) we will have essentially replaced Ryan Pressly. If Romero, Mejia or another newcomer in the bullpen can manage a 3.50 ERA we will have essentially replaced Ryan Pressly. I like the direction our analytics is going but I'm not ready to say we would have the same results with Pressly that Houston had immediately with him. 2018 Twins 3.40 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 2.95 FIP, 8.7 H/9, 0.9HR/9, 3.6 BB/9 Astros 0.77 ERA, 0.600 WHIP, 1.49 FIP, 4.2 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 1.2 BB/9 1.1 of his 1.9 fWAR was with Houston in 23.1 innings, he managed 0.8 in 47.2 innings with us. Had he continued on his Twins pace he would have had a 1.2 fWAR and been ranked 39th among relievers. Still a great mark but Houston deserves a lot of credit here.
  22. SomeGuy
    Trade Rumors had this a couple days ago. Sounds dead. SATURDAY: Extension talks are off for the time being, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who tweets that the Twins and Gibson didn’t come close to a deal during their discussions.
  23. SomeGuy
    The 3 options teams face are buy, stand pat, and sell at the deadline. I am fairly certain that teams in the 5-10 games back range will no longer see stand pat as an option. Their choice will be do we buy heavily and try to catch the teams that are also buying (This risks losing prospects for what can very easily be a non playoff scenario) or they could sell while they have the chance and build for the future. We have seen how teams view risk these days. We have also seen how teams view the importance of building for the future. I think there will be more sellers.
  24. SomeGuy
    So you're flat out against all trades and not just the August deadline? Its the final month of the season. People don't play baseball for location security. Travel and possible relocation is part of the job description. The August deadline would buy them one more month in their "desired" location than if the teams just decide to trade them in July instead. I like to imagine that somewhere, deep down, winning is important to professional baseball players.
  25. SomeGuy
    Why would players not like the August deadline? Don't they care about winning? Verlander leaving Detroit for Houston seems like a best case scenario for him. Trade prices will not increase if more teams are forced into selling earlier. There will likely be more players available at the July deadline. Buying teams would have more options. Economics says that more sellers + less buyers = lower prices. This won't have much of an effect on the off season. Veterans if anything will have a harder time than the last 2 off seasons due to increased fears of injuries. This did not help on that front. This rule change benefits no one.
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