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SomeGuy

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Everything posted by SomeGuy

  1. SomeGuy
    Twins still get to play 33 games against Detroit, Chicago, and Kansas City. Indians have 20 games left against those opponents. After they play KC we should see where the Indians really are when they play Houston, LAA, Texas, Twins, Boston, Yankees. I think they are for real but other than us they haven't played a playoff caliber team since June 9th. Their recent hot streak was aided quite a bit by garbage teams. Should be an entertaining stretch run to watch play out though.
  2. SomeGuy
    It is an interesting approach but might be squashed next season with the 3 batter minimum. You might be able to argue that they are still facing 3 batters just as a position player for some of them. Start a late inning with a reliever and move him to 1st or OF after facing one hitter.
  3. SomeGuy
    But what has changed since then? This is more or less the same unit that was pretty good for the first 2/3 of the season. Why was the first 3 months an illusion but the last month is not? Kepler is batting .235 over the last 30 days, Cron .183, and Buxton .158, should we be trying to replace them because the recent history is all that matters? I am advocating we add 1-2 depth pieces to the pen and always have been but I think it is overstated how bad they have been collectively. I think I saw someone suggest firing the GM if we don't get the all of the best relievers available.
  4. SomeGuy
    So for the other 67 games we have played (2/3 of our season so far) they had 4 blown saves. I would say that is...good
  5. SomeGuy
    Bullpen has been credited 15 losses, 9th fewest in MLB. 12 blown saves, 12th fewest in MLB. ERA ranks 16th, FIP ranks 12th, xFIP ranks 13th. WAR is ranked 5th. This is largely an average if not slightly above average bullpen. For a team that has vastly exceeded expectations in all other aspects of the game (We have a top offense, our starting rotation ranks in the top 5 in ERA and WAR, also have a top defense), we are in a pretty good spot at the deadline. I agree that we should look to add 1-2 depth pieces for our bullpen. It would be nice to add one of the top relievers but a couple depth pieces would stabilize what is already average. An elite offense, elite defense, great rotation, and average bullpen will play just fine in the postseason.
  6. SomeGuy
    On pace to win 98 games with this pen..... Beat the Rangers 2 of 3, Cleveland 2 of 3, lost a short 2 game series to the Mets, split with red hot A's 2 of 4, currently split with the best team out there 1 to 1. I think they are surviving just fine. Should still add one or two pitchers to it but not in a desperate need to revamp the entire pen.
  7. SomeGuy
    I doubt we could offer the position stability that he's had in Arizona 82 of 100 games at 3rd. Hard to say how he would have viewed us or how much he wanted a set role, etc. Certainly not a guarantee that he resigned without a trade. Either way I love the trade. I like Gonzalez more than Escobar because he can be the 4th OF and play the Escobar positions, plus we have Adrianza and Arraez in that role too.
  8. SomeGuy
    Escobar was a great trade. Duran (8th ranked prospect), Maciel (24th), and De La Trinidad for 2 months of Escobar!
  9. SomeGuy
    21 teams are within 6.5 games of the playoffs. How mad would fans be if the Twins sold at 5-6 games back? Some fans were pretty mad last season at 9 games out. I still think the change to one deadline was a bad decision. Teams like Arizona and Texas are feeling forced to sell with winning records. Selling teams are able to ask for massive overpays because the supply is much less than the demand. In the end we will likely see upset fan bases for teams who weren't gutsy enough to go for it at 5 games back. Less selling teams will lead to less players moved and weaker playoff teams. The only teams benefiting in this scenario are the basement teams that were out of contention a long time ago. Opposite effect than was intended. It might not always be this close but year 1 of the new rule is not going well. Does this help the offseason market if teams projected to finish in the middle might not have the option to sell later because they could find themselves in the weird spot the Giants/Rangers/Dbacks are in where odds are they don't make the playoffs but it would look really bad if they sold? I think more teams go the Houston or Cubs route where you sit way back and slowly build a super team. I don't think one deadline is going to convince small to mid market teams to do more buying in free agency. Does this help the players? Madison Bumgarner will probably not get traded, will probably not pitch in the playoffs, will probably make less money next season because he has a draft pick attached to him via qualifying offer.
  10. SomeGuy
    It's shaping up to be a really bad trade deadline for buying teams. The starting pitching market is extremely bare. There will be like a dozen teams fighting for the available relievers. Expect to get fleeced on a Stroman deal. Not that he will be anywhere near as awful as Archer but you will give up the farm to get what is essentially an effective groundball/pitch to contact guy (not a true ace).
  11. SomeGuy
    The Blue Jays probably won't need to settle for the best offer on the table with how few sellers there seem to be. There should be strong interest from the Yankees, Phillies, Astros, Brewers, Twins and maybe Cardinals, Braves, A's, Angels or others as well. Its very possible that the Giants and Diamondbacks stay put instead of selling, if that happens the starting pitching market is very dry. Someone can probably beat this offer for Stroman. Personally I would rather go the rental route if we grab a starter and spend cash in the off season for the 2020 rotation.
  12. SomeGuy
    The Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, Alex Colome, Sam Dyson range. (2nd or 3rd tier relievers). Similar to May and Harper.
  13. SomeGuy
    https://www.mlb.com/news/seven-teams-that-should-sit-out-trade-deadline Will Leitch says we should do nothing this trade deadline. LOL everyone agrees right? I agree with the line This is the “we’re here, let’s see what happens” year, rather than “this is the all-in, end-all, be-all” season. But we still need to do something, like a mid range reliever at least.
  14. SomeGuy
    Arraez is batting 6th again tonight. Gets on base 44.2% of the time and is batting ahead of Sano, Cave, and Adrianza. Let's try him near the top of the order some time.
  15. SomeGuy
    Our OBP has been great though. Of the 14 players with more than 100 PA, 9 of them have OBP above league average (.323). The 5 below league average are Sano (.315), Rosario (.310), Schoop (.308), Buxton (.308), Astudillo (.282).
  16. SomeGuy
    Not only are you asking a team that might not sell to sell, you're suggesting they move one of their best controllable assets. I have a hard time believing the Reds would move Gray at all. They made it clear that they are ending the rebuilding phase. They took a chance on extending Gray after a bad season and it is paying off. They now have a good cheap pitcher for 3-4 more seasons. Any deal for Gray should require a massive overpay. Tanner Roark is probably available....
  17. SomeGuy
    I don't think Grienke hates the Twins. It is known that he prefers the National League though. He likes hitting and probably doesn't enjoy facing DH either. Another thing to consider is how he feels about Arizona's current playoff chances. He probably doesn't want to walk away from his teammates while they are 0.5 games out of the playoffs and have the 2nd best run differential in the NL. He probably values his current teams playoff push more than joining another one.
  18. SomeGuy
    Matt Chapman left yesterdays game with an ankle injury. Availability is unknown.
  19. SomeGuy
    By what measure is Sano poor in RISP besides his usual batting average and strikeouts issues? RISP Sano wOBA .349, wRC+ 117, OBP .340, OPS .846 Polanco wOBA .325, wRC+101, OBP .356, OPS .795 Kepler wOBA .308, wRC+ 89, OBP .346 OPS .717
  20. SomeGuy
    They gained 4 games on the wildcard since July 1st and passed 3 teams in that stretch. With how close everyone is, passing 6 teams isn't that big of a deal. They could pass 2 teams today if they win and San Diego losses, they would be tied for 3rd in their division. They have been 22-15 since June 1st and the 5 teams immediately ahead of them have been playing poorly. I still think they sell or should sell but I also think they can ask for more now that they have this illusion of being in the race.They can rightly argue that the buying team would be taking them out of contention. The NL should be fun to watch at the deadline and hopefully in the final days of the season. The new trade deadline is already having a huge impact. I think multiple fan bases will be disappointed in decisions to sell so close to the wildcard while other teams will wish they sold when they drop off after the deadline.
  21. SomeGuy
    The Marlins don't have to cut payroll anymore, they only pay 70M this year and have more than 20M leaving the team after the season. Outside of Wei-Yun Chen they are all cheap, they will not need to sacrifice young talent to unload his 1 remaining season. They will be much better off paying him and keeping the talent as they near the end of their rebuild. In all likely hood they aren't competing next season either but they will head into the off season with less than 50M on the books. With a good starting rotation and bullpen, they aren't that far from ending the rebuild. Overall point, they are better off paying Chen for 1 more year than sacrificing young talent that they can use over the next 4 seasons like Caleb Smith. They aren't at the cutting payroll phase anymore.
  22. SomeGuy
    The Giants are 19-14 since June 1st and 6-1 in July. They are now just 4.5 games out of the playoffs. It might not deter the selloff but it might raise the price on some of their players if they make it seem like the buyers need to convince them that they are out of contention. (I don't think they are serious contenders but they can make an argument that they are in it at 4.5 games back) The Reds are at the same spot as the Giants, 4.5 games behind the 2nd wild card and many expect them to buy at the deadline (they are only 5.5 behind the division unlike the Giants who are 16.5 and the Reds have a very good run differential). It should be fascinating to watch the NL play out over the next 3 weeks and the rest of the season.
  23. SomeGuy
    What part of his profile is a fluke? Its hard to fake it with 12 k/9. His FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA all point to a lower ERA than he currently has.
  24. SomeGuy
    Boyd still has 3 years of control after this season and Greene has 1. Royce Lewis in a 1-1 or 1 for both, Detroit hangs up the phone laughing. 2 good MLB pitchers with low cost control past this season is worth a lot more than any 1 prospect. Love Royce Lewis but Detroit declines the Greene/Boyd trade even with Rooker involved.
  25. SomeGuy
    ESPN suggests a Bumgarner/Smith trade would require something like Kirilloff, Thorpe and 2 more. The Stroman/Giles combo should cost more than the Bumgarner/Smith rentals. I think it would work better for the Twins and especially the Blue Jays to go Johnny Cash on this one (one piece at a time). The Yankees probably aren't interested in Ken Giles but would put together a nice deal for Stroman (propbably centered around MLB ready Clint Frazier). With the number of teams on the bubble this year, Stroman's extra year might be the target for many teams. Just Stroman alone is going to take a haul. It would almost certainly take one of the "untouchables" to grab both Stroman and Giles. From MLB.com on the lesser duo of Bumgarner/Smith Giants stars Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith are two of the biggest names on the trade rumor mill. It’s not often we see a rebuilding team put multiple chips in one deal, but could it happen? One possibility, as suggested by ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle (subscription required), would send both free-agent-to-be lefties to the upstart AL Central-leading Twins for prospects: outfielder Alex Kirilloff, southpaw Lewis Thorpe and two more young pieces.
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