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SomeGuy

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Everything posted by SomeGuy

  1. SomeGuy
    I don't really agree with the notion that free agents performed worse due to being "salty" about how free agency went for them. What sense does it make for a player to slack off on a 1 year deal because they feel they were mistreated? That would only make the next offseason worse. I prefer the theories that Morrison was battling injuries and 2017 was a career year that he wasn't likely to duplicate over him being bitter about Free Agency. Also Lynn can point to the NL to AL switch as well as 2017 being a small sample size since his injury (5.10 ERA with the Twins last year isn't that far off from the 4.82 FIP he had 2017).
  2. SomeGuy
    Kind of bold to say that 8 of 9 positions will be home grown players. Also bold to say we don't extend/re-sign a single player from the current roster. With a few moves this article could be titled our best prospects at each position. But I can see where predicting free agents or trades from the next 3 off seasons would not be logical....Aside from the obvious Mike Trout signing. (Could also replace the Trout joke with - we would need to see who the non tendered players are from around the league that year)
  3. SomeGuy
    That pitching coach has been let go since then.
  4. SomeGuy
    Their offseason has been slow so far. Cory Spangenberg, Bobby Wahl, and Ben Gamel have been their main additions. They lost a bunch of guys to Free Agency (mostly the 1 year rentals they acquired mid season). If they get a couple of the players they have been linked to, like Dozier, Bumgarner, or Kuechel, they can recoup those losses. Fangraphs has them at 78 wins and 5th place right now. I still think they are easily better than the Pirates and Reds but this is a decent division. I don't really see a clear favorite or great team between Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals.
  5. SomeGuy
    Whether its park factor or not, that is a pretty substantial home/away split. He had the same problem with the Cubs, which is one of the worst pitchers parks so maybe it is just a preference thing. Either way a troubling trend. Career Home - 1.66 ERA Away - 5.35 ERA
  6. SomeGuy
    Decent, plus he would qualify for arbitration next season if the deal is a 1 year deal. Hopefully he is not the marquee bullpen guy we sign this year. As another possible red flag, Angels ballpark is a pitchers park. Over that good 2017-2018 span that he had, there was a serious home/away split. Home 1.61 ERA Away 4.42 ERA
  7. SomeGuy
    I'm a little worried about Rosario but less than many other Twins players. His monthly OPS for 2018 show two really good months and the rest are poor. His average, OBP, and Slugging all followed the same path, his season was boosted by those two amazing months. He didn't injure his quad until Aug 30th so I don't believe that explains the July and August decline. Hopefully he is less streaky next year but overall I am confident he will have another decent stat line over the full season. 2017 he was much more consistent. Mar/Apr .659 May 1.004 June 1.084 July .622 Aug .669 Sept .625
  8. SomeGuy
    This sounds like hindsite. Statcast has him at the exact same Sprint Speed as 2017, 6 Twins positional players were below him 2018. Considering a move to 1st or DH has been in the cards for a long time, I don't think it torpedoes his value to move away from 3rd. Especially since he has never been (and never will be) an asset at 3rd base defensively. Plus we have no long term option at either 1st or DH.
  9. SomeGuy
    I believe whatever issues he had with his swing are also connected to his conditioning. It easy to see how someone's hard hit% and exit velocity decrease when he loses leg strength recovering from injury. He was "immobilized" last offseason according to the Front Office, I take that to mean he did not spend much if any time in a batting cage. I find it kind of crazy how much fans have piled on to this injury. You hear so many times that he is now a failed prospect and the Twins need to move on etc. By the comments you wouldn't know that this time last year he was an all star 3rd baseman and a fan favorite.
  10. SomeGuy
    Nelson Cruz's pre-28 years are a pretty small sample size, he only had 557 MLB at bats before establishing himself. Kepler and Rosario have triple that and even Buxton has almost double at 979 AB. 115 of those Cruz at bats were part of a very good age 27 season (.330/.421/.609 all three would have been career highs if it was a full season). I wouldn't count on any of the 3 living up to Nelson Cruz's hitting career but there is still time for them to develop into good hitters. Plus Nelson Cruz is a known PED user before 2013, who knows when that started and how much it impacted his development.
  11. SomeGuy
    Being optioned "straight" to Single A isn't really a fair statement. He wasn't sent there because AAA or AA were too much for him. They wanted him to be near the extensive workout facilities that Fort Myers has available. I am optimistic about Sano with a full offseason. As a prospect he was praised for his work ethic, he should rebound just fine as long as the leg holds up. 2019 success hinges more on Sano than any other player besides maybe Buxton. An injured or ineffective Garver would not derail our season like another bad season from Sano would.
  12. SomeGuy
    I would probably trust the Dodgers scouting abilities more than the Reds, look at how many quality prospects the Dodgers have acquired and developed over the years. Always seems to be a top payroll and a top farm system in LA.
  13. SomeGuy
    Are all 3 players replacing just Mauer? Or are they replacing Dozier, Escobar and Mauer (37 2018 homeruns)? More like 30 HR increase. Nice pickups though.
  14. SomeGuy
    You're dead wrong on 10 WAR being more than 3 legitimate prospects ever producing. Add to that the fact that they are still a sub .500 team, what will that 10 WAR actually have been worth when they hit free agency after another losing season? Steamer projects Puig, Kemp, Wood, and Roark to be worth a combined 6.6 WAR in 2019 by the way.
  15. SomeGuy
    The 3rd top 30 prospect was Tanner Rainey from the Tanner Roark trade who is also a 1 year rental for the 67 win team. It just seems like a team that spent the better part of the last decade rebuilding would be better off adding free agents on 3-5 year deals instead of buying 1 year rentals. They have a good young core to build around, they could have a nice window coming up but they are choosing to burn prospects on 1 year contracts.
  16. SomeGuy
    Over 100 is a really optimistic estimate. Cron hit 30 last year but 16 was his previous high. Schoop hit 21 in a down year last year but most of his career was at Camden Yards, which from 2010-2016 produced 122 Homeruns for every 100 homeruns at an average park. Cruz's homerun total has declined for three consecutive seasons. Baseball-reference projects the 3 to combine for 74 homeruns. Cruz 31, Cron 22, Schoop 21. Steamer is a little better at 83. Cruz 35, Cron 24, Schoop 24. Good pickups though. I like that 2020 is an option year for Cruz.
  17. SomeGuy
    They already gave up 3 of their top 30 prospects, two of which are 97MPH pitchers. Puig and Wood are the 2 big trade pieces, what if Puig gets injured like he has been known to do or Wood underwhelms in a hitter friendly park? In a best case scenario they recoup more than they gave up but that is not a given. Or they find themselves 5 games back of the 2nd wildcard and selling would be unpopular with fans that were told they are in win-now mode.
  18. SomeGuy
    Puig is a Free Agent after 2019 like Wood and Kemp. Plus they traded for Tanner Roark who is also a free agent after this upcoming season. After 2019 they are right where they were a month ago, minus the prospects. One of their better other players is also gone after 2019, Scooter Gennett. It seems crazy for a 67 win team to go all in for just one single season like this. They are hoping to suddenly add 25-30 wins to last years total. Then what? back to the rebuild? Take on 5 more rental players and make another 1 year push? Puig and maybe Wood can get a qualifying offer but I think there is a good possibility that they are trying to sell these players at the deadline. Fangraphs has them projected for 79 wins next season. They still have work to do on their one year stand.
  19. SomeGuy
    My issue with PED users not being in the HOF is that we will never know the true scope of it. We know steroids were prevalent in baseball during the 70's, why do we treat Hank Aaron differently than Barry Bonds? Punishing 2-3 players under the assumption of using is not fair when there is so much certainty that 4 decades or more have been clouded with steroids. I would vote Bonds and Clemens if it were up to me.
  20. SomeGuy
    All 3 players were dealing with injuries in 2018. Assuming Dozier is being truthful about having knee issues throughout the season. Sano to outfield and back to 3B was not Falvey/Levine but still Sano was receptive to the idea. It was not demanded of him. Minnesota intends for Sano to begin the season as the starting right fielder, GM Terry Ryan told MLB.com. "He's bought in," Ryan said. "But we've certainly asked that question. You have to be on board with it and he's on board."
  21. SomeGuy
    I think the trade is weird from the Reds point of view. They are better yes but how much better? They might have passed Pittsburgh but they are still 4th or 5th in the NLC in my opinion. Its a long way to the Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals. If they don't go on some magical run this year, all 3 will be free agents next year. They just gave away 2 top 30 prospects and saved the Dodgers a few bucks. I wouldn't say the Dodger's necessarily won the trade, it just makes a little more sense from their perspective especially if it alludes to another move. I don't think the Reds are now 25 wins better than their last season squad and its kind of contend 2019 or bust since all 3 will be Free Agents. As a fallback 2 of the 3 players could get a nice return at the trade deadline if they are out so maybe they turn 2 prospects into like 4 or 5 prospects.
  22. SomeGuy
    Even if he is OPSing under .600 I think he needs to be our CF next year. We can handle him as a light hitting 9th hitter who can steal 25+ bases and provide best in baseball defense at the premier position. It would be hard to swallow because he is supposed to be a great hitter but he would be valuable as is. I don't think continuing to bat .315 with an OPS of .900 at AAA is going to be what makes him take the final step offensively. We are pretty strong offensively at the other "Defense First" positions of catcher and Shortstop. I think one light hitting but elite defender is manageable. Jake Cave is not good defensively, he was below average in UZR and dWAR. I like him as a 4th OF and DH pairing with Tyler Austin. It will be tough for a lot of Twins fans if or when Buxton never becomes the "annual MVP candidate" that he was billed as. Like all prospects, there is potential to be good and potential to be bad. Maybe a lesson for us to not assume the next 18-20 year olds are future Hall of Famers before they reach the Majors. I still think Buxton can be great but we might be setting ourselves up for disappointment in the near future if we view top prospects only by their ceiling.
  23. SomeGuy
    Good list. I would agree that everyone on it should be in the HOF. I don't buy into the first ballot thing. If they are in what I view as the top 10 players on the ballot I would vote for them. I wouldn't consider if I think they are 1st ballot worthy or not, just a simple who is my top 10. I do think Coors Field should factor into the decision but Helton and Walker are still probably good enough. Walker played 7.5 seasons on different teams too. They both have pretty crazy home/away splits though. I can buy a hitter playing better at home but .170-.180 points of OPS better seems like park factor. Helton home .332/.435/.565 away .285/.391/.442 Walker home .337/.449/.592 away .271/.377/.487
  24. SomeGuy
    Kemp was pretty bad in the 2nd half last year. Plus if you add up his WAR over the last 4 seasons you get 0.5. Also a very bad fielding outfielder. They aren't losing much there, he was not worth his contract and about to be a FA anyway. They got pitching depth to replace Wood. Puig is the big loss in my mind. If they miss out on Harper there is still a very good outfielder in AJ Pollock. Either one would outweigh the Puig loss I believe.
  25. SomeGuy
    I doubt any team would ever tell a 24 year old, still developing player to "show up in Spring training a competent Major League baseball player" like some sort of ultimatum. The front office needs to work with him as much as possible. Hopefully they ask your question to him many many times "Please, Byron, tell us what we can do to help you play better"
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