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SomeGuy

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Everything posted by SomeGuy

  1. SomeGuy
    I comments I quoted specifically state "We don't have forever, the White Sox might overtake us next year." and "I agree this is the year to take the division." Does that not mean all in 2019?
  2. SomeGuy
    Sounds like you agree with me....we should stay away from Bumgarner, Sonny Gray, and any other player that is only controllable for 2019. I am not saying make no moves, I am saying don't make 2019 only minded moves just because we could sneak into the playoffs.
  3. SomeGuy
    I disagree with this strategy. We should not see 2019 as now or never. The White Sox rebuild has potential to be great but that is not a forgone conclusion. They have pushed back their perceived "contention window" by a few years already. Major prospects like Yoan Moncado and Lucas Giolito have underwhelmed so far, Michael Kopech just had Tommy John surgery. Twins fans should know that top prospects potential is never a lock. Besides, one more major injury or a large contract gone bad could throw a wrench in their rebuild pretty quick. Seems like our rebuild will be a waste if we go all in on one year just to capture a bad division. Especially with the 3 "super teams" present in the AL right now.
  4. SomeGuy
    Grossman's dWAR over the last 3 years averages to -1.53. Miguel Sano's dWAR in 2016 (when he took a stab at OF) was -1.4.
  5. SomeGuy
    I agree that we should be taking on talent to make the 2019 team better but most moves should be focused on the next 2-4 years. If we commit resources, especially on the trade front, to only making 2019 better than we might be shooting ourselves in the foot. The problem with 2019 is that we are saying if Sano, Buxton etc. play to their potential we can be great. Even with an ace or more, we are still saying if Sano and Buxton, etc. play to their potential. Aside from Buxton and Sano, there are still too many questions to say World Series 2019 or bust. Does Kepler have the next level everyone thought he did? Why did Rosario go from 19 HR and .311/.353/.537 in the first half to 5 HR .240/.262/.361 in the second half? Will he give us a full season? Will any of the starting pitching prospects pan out? Will May finally be healthy for a full season? Is Pineda going to contribute? Is Rogers elite now or was that a small sample size?
  6. SomeGuy
    Cleveland aren't waving the white flag though. They are right to trade ONE of their elite starting pitchers. They should get a haul in return and that could open up a much longer window for them if they end up with another Lindor level prospect from the trade of Kluber or whoever. They would be dealing from a position of strength and starting pitchers get a boatload of talent in return. There's no way they blow up the roster Mariners style. To me the next 4 years looks brighter for the Indians than any other ALC team but the Twins and White Sox can compete with a couple of the right moves.
  7. SomeGuy
    We have the Financial ability to take on a good sized FA contract too. Everybody says we aren't in on Corbin, Keuchel, or Eovaldi but why not? For once we have the available payroll for any of them, in these cases we get multiple years. Go with Syndergaard for 3 years or stick with the FA market. Is Bumgarner that good anymore? Last 2 years 3.95 and 3.99 FIP (Berrios was better both seasons), declining fastball, injury history. I know recent prospect history might leave some skeptical but I don't see anyway going all in this year as a better option than trying to make a competitive window out of 2020-2025. Bumgarner might make 2019 marginally better but he makes 2020 and beyond worse. If we sneak past Cleveland, do we match up with Houston? Boston? New York?
  8. SomeGuy
    This was my favorite line from the article. And it makes me wonder whether Zaidi might be better off waiting until July. That might seem like procrastination, but it could conceivably work in the Giants’ favor. He would likely be the best available and maybe a contender gets desperate. Of course he would need to pitch well and stay healthy but if two middling prospects is the return, taking the qualifying offer pick wouldn't be that much worse.
  9. SomeGuy
    Can't get on board with this at one year. I would much rather keep whatever prospects it takes to land him. Its hard to imagine 2019 as an "all in" year with so many question marks.
  10. SomeGuy
    Instead of having Kepler play 1B and signing an OF/DH, wouldn't we be better off signing someone who could play a position other than 1B or RF? Seems silly to have a "versatile" player playing positions that we are already flush at. Someone like Jed Lowrie, who closely resembles Bellingers ouput last year, would get us someone who can play 2B and 3B. A position of need and a position of doubt.
  11. SomeGuy
    But slams a trade for a 5 year contract lol. Its weird how many people think Cano is suddenly unplayable after a PED suspension. We are also in the wonderful league that offers a DH spot for players that can no longer field, if Cano ever gets to that point. Still a good hitter and should be for at least 2-3 more years. I like how the FO is only signing low risk contracts but somewhere along the way we will need to take a risk. If any team can take on a $24M contract right now, it is us. Cano fills a need at 2B, the AL Central won't be terrible forever. I suggested it because this makes more sense than Goldy or Grienke IMO. But I realize how unlikely it is, to be honest I'm not crazy about it either. I was surprised the Grienke, Goldy crowd were not interested.
  12. SomeGuy
    I don't think Dozier compares to this situation. The Rays were in a situation where they were going to trade him, or waive him. There wasn't a situation where he would be in the Rays lineup 2019. When Dozier didn't get the package we wanted, he was still our 2B for the next 2 years. We didn't try to trade him because we wanted to get rid of him, we wanted to see what we could get for him.
  13. SomeGuy
    Why would the Rays demand anything substantial in a trade or try to sell him as a 30 HR player if they were going to let him go on waivers for nothing? They would have taken any minor leaguer in our system. It is an upgrade over Robbie Grossman but the downside is we are using two roster spots for two very similar players. Maybe signing an additional Relief pitcher instead would have moved the needle further. As it stands we are at 39 players, 38 if Grossman is non tendered. At minimum, we still need a 2B and a couple relievers IMO. We might be in the same spot as the Rays where we are deciding which players we lose and get nothing for.
  14. SomeGuy
    Its not meant to be a knock on Cron or the Rays. Its just that there are plenty of players just like Cron. This is evident by no one trading anything for him. How many teams decided not to claim him before he fell to us?
  15. SomeGuy
    Jeff Sullivan. He basically says the Rays tried to trade him and couldn't. They were confident that the other options they had made him expendable. They had a roster crunch and thought he was the most replaceable. They have Ji-Man Choi who is very similar statistically and still at league minimum.
  16. SomeGuy
    There are a ton of cheap options when it comes to players like this. Even our own Tyler Austin was one example, 2 months of a poorly performing pitcher netted us years of control over a decent 1B/DH. I like how Fangraphs puts it. His just isn’t a highly-valued skillset. That’s ultimately what this comes down to. A team could go out and get C.J. Cron pretty cheap. It could go out and get, say, Wilmer Flores pretty cheap. It could probably get Eric Thames pretty cheap. Justin Bour was reportedly waived by the Phillies. Teams are looking for well-rounded players. Cron isn’t a well-rounded player. He’s good enough to have in the lineup, but he’s no one’s Plan A, and he’s not a player for teams to build around.
  17. SomeGuy
    Seems to reiterate the conservative approach to this offseason.
  18. SomeGuy
    I would prefer this to Grienke's contract. 35 Year old Grineke gets 104.5M for 3 years. 36 year old Cano gets 120M for 5 years. That extra 15M is a pretty easy gamble for me since it could mean 2 more years if he is still productive. I also believe we would want to take on most of the contract to limit the prospets we surrender. I think both players are getting close to regression but with Cano I think he could still be valuable at DH when he is in the later years of his contract. My other point is that 2019 is not likely to be a contention year for us, so 1/3 or more of Grienke's contract might be wasted.
  19. SomeGuy
    MLBTR say that the Mariners are shopping Cano. The Twins have money and a need for 2B. Cano can also play 1B or DH which are also holes on the roster. Aside from the recent suspension, Cano has an incredible track record of appearing in 150+ games every year since 2006. Plus he is still producing at a high level offensively and above average defensively. I'm thinking that with his age and contract, the prospect return could be low if we took all of the contract. The downside, he is 36 and under an expensive contract for 5 more seasons. He has a full no trade clause and may not be interested in our fine State. He is a bit of a PR problem with the PED suspension. Pretty solid match in my opinion.
  20. SomeGuy
    I am optimistic he regains that early season success that he had last year. They should proceed with caution and manage his workload better. We need a couple bullpen additions this offseason, hopefully Reed won't be critical to our success in case the injury is more serious than it was.
  21. SomeGuy
    His fastball velocity was increasing month by month until peaking in June then lost 2 MPH by the end of the year. Wearing down is a possibility, that might be a normal year long model for a pitchers velocity but losing 2 MPH seems significant for a low 90's reliever. However, he was successful early in the year when he was building strength and essentially throwing the same speed as at the end of the year. His walk rate increasing dramatically probably affected him. His homerun to flyball ratio also ballooned from 12.8% to 30.4% from 1st half to 2nd half.
  22. SomeGuy
    BrooksBaseball.net says he used a slider 6.53% of the time in 2016. 0% in 2017 and 13.19% in 2018. The whiff % nearly doubled between '16 and '18 on his slider. The linked article from Dan Hayes says he developed it with Eddie Guardado before using it this season. Must be a little different from his previous slider.
  23. SomeGuy
    The Mariners have to regroup. I disagree with that being a bad thing. They are an old team with what could be the worst minor league system. It is probably in their best interest to start getting younger. They have some massive contracts that are currently overpays. They should be ready with a decent young core when those start ending. Getting Justus Sheffield is a big step in the right direction, Felix and his massive overpay ends next year. Paxton just set a career high in innings at 160 previously 136 and 121. He has not been a reliable source of innings and is not that far from FA. Great time to sell him.
  24. SomeGuy
    I would pass on Goldschmidt. One year of control doesn't fit our plan of building a long term competitor. We aren't ready to go all in this year. If they wanted to save some bucks this offseason and throw him a nice contract offer as a FA I would be on board.
  25. SomeGuy
    How many of those players lost a year to injury? I'm not trying to defend Jay as the next big thing, because he is not. Just saying it was not a "shameful pick." Saying that 8 players from the first round are playing right now doesn't mean all other picks are busts. You're forgetting Eddie Rosario from the 2010 draft. Added data point: Bill Smith was GM for 2008 to 2011 drafts. He was terrible. He in no way reflects the generally decent drafter that was Terry Ryan or the new front office that I think had 2 amazing drafts.
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