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SomeGuy

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Everything posted by SomeGuy

  1. SomeGuy
    I don't think its fair to say CJ Cron's .323 OBP was "pretty low." MLB average was .318 in 2018.
  2. SomeGuy
    The Angels need to figure out what is going on with their injury history. I'm starting to think it is not just an unfortunate coincidence at this point. They currently have 3 Major League pitchers recovering from Tommy John and seem to lose multiple pitchers to a major injury every season. Might be time to cut old Pujols too.
  3. SomeGuy
    Overall I like the trade the Twins made but I see why the Rays were willing to take such a low prospect and dump his modest salary. If we were to extend Odorizzi I would hope that the contract is short and reflects a 5th starter salary.
  4. SomeGuy
    1 MPH over 2 seasons. 1/2 MPH per season. Is that going to reverse or is he on track to be a sub 90MPH guy? I would bet on the guy that has 2MPH on the other and is coming off a good 1.5 year stretch opposed to someone who was below average over the last 2 years and getting worse. I am having a hard time contributing Odorizzi's struggles to "one bad year" when it appears to be a downward trend. FIP is increasing into the high 4, low 5 range, groundballs have decreased steadily over the last 4 seasons while flyballs have risen 4 consecutive seasons. His 1.44 HR/9 over the last 3 seasons is 17th worst, slightly better than guys like Ricky Nolasco (1.45) and Bartolo Colon (1.57).
  5. SomeGuy
    Here is an interesting trend for each pitcher. Odorizzi is losing velocity at 28 and Gibson has gained velocity, likely due to his adjustments in the middle of 2017. Odorizzi 4seam velocity + ERA 2016 - 92.50MPH 3.69 ERA 2017 - 91.91MPH 4.14 ERA 2018 - 91.45MPH 4.49 ERA Gibson 2016 - 91.83MPH 5.07 ERA 2017 - 92.62MPH 5.07 ERA (3.76 ERA in 2nd half) 2018 - 93.64MPH 3.62 ERA
  6. SomeGuy
    I want to point out the first bullet point on the list. Gibson is just as durable as Odorizzi so its not like Odorizzi has a leg up on him in the category. Saying Odorizzi has less innings doesn't necessarily translate to less pitches. Gibson has only pitched one more MLB game in his career than Odorizzi, 159 to 158 (that is games started, Odorizzi has technically pitched 161 games if you count non starts). Odorizzi is notorious for reaching his "pitch count" early in the game. Since the article focuses on 2014 to 2018 and Orodizzi's 28+ games lets compare Gibson for the same stretch. Odorizzi threw 832.2 innings in 152 games. That is about 5.47 innings per game. Gibson has thrown 3 less games in that stretch but 876 innings, about 5.88 innings per game. EDIT: Gibson has thrown 15,432 pitches to Odorizzi's 15,317. Gibson has thrown 115 more pitches.
  7. SomeGuy
    Before anyone jumps in with Nelson Cruz should be our DH, consider this.... Austin vs lefties .272/.345/.592 Cave vs Righties .287/.335/.509 Cruz 2018 overall .256/.353/.513 Austin and Cave come with the added benefit of being physically able to play in the field if needed. They are 27 and 26 years old, they should be on the upswing of their career not the decline. They are both pre-arb so we can use the potential Cruz money to upgrade the bullpen instead.
  8. SomeGuy
    Cave ranks below Kepler in dWAR and well below him in UZR (10.8 to -1.0). Its debatable how Cave would have fared in those metrics as only a corner outfielder (he was -0.4 UZR as RF and -0.4 as LF but only had 80 and 29 innings at each) but he was not good in CF. Kepler was 3rd in the MLB among outfielders for the UZR category. And yes I am assuming an average everyday 1B is better than Kepler would be but don't know until he plays there I guess. I personally hope we never have to find out. Seems simple to just platoon Cave with Austin at DH if your only goal is to get more at bats for Cave.
  9. SomeGuy
    Cave slashed .194/.239/.358 against lefties last year so he should probably be limited to RH starters (.287/.335/.509 against RHP). Tyler Austin has a nice platoon fit with Cave, his career slash has been .272/.345.592 against LHP and .211/.259/.405 against RHP. Wouldn't it be easier to just have Cave take DH at bats away from Austin against RHP when we aren't resting another OF? I don't see the advantage of asking a good defensive outfielder to play 1B where he hasn't played a full game since 2015 (AA). In my opinion that is likely to be a downgrade at 2 positions defensively.
  10. SomeGuy
    Gurriel is flexible enough to fill in a Marwin Gonzalez type role (played every infield position in 2018) or has 2 options left. He could also fall into some sort of platoon role, Gurriel had a really poor OPS against RHP last year(.693). Sounds like their interest is heavy. Speculating on my part but I would think the Yankees could find a spot for him too. Stanton got the most DH at bats last year but he is not terrible in the outfield.
  11. SomeGuy
    Another red flag for Buchholz is velocity. He was down to an average of 90MPH in 2018, down about 3 MPH from his career average or pre 2015 (pre injuries). Hard to imagine that turning around when 3 of his last 4 season have been ended early with similar injuries to his throwing arm.
  12. SomeGuy
    This is from MLB Trade Rumors. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that a “well-placed source” indicated to him that the White Sox weren’t interested in signing either Machado or Bryce Harper to a record-setting contract. Olney called Chicago’s interest “more measured and modest than frenzied.”
  13. SomeGuy
    I agree that he probably goes to the Astros. His agent was quoted as saying he is only looking to sign with a contender. We could probably be considered contenders but the other two teams linked to him so far(Astros and Rays) fit the description much better. I think the major roadblock will be how much he values his chances at a World Series in the next deal.
  14. SomeGuy
    The Twins should be spending this offseason on building and sustaining an elite bullpen. I don't think it is a coincidence that the top 5 teams in terms of bullpen ERA made the playoffs last year. 7 of the top 10 made the playoffs while 9 had winning records. Easily a deeper talent pool in Free Agency compared to SP and position players.
  15. SomeGuy
    You're right that we have different ideas of lineup clogging if you think Escobar and his OPS of .824 (just behind Joey Votto and Jose Altuve at .837) is a clog. Not to mention he can play almost anywhere and is pretty affordable. Where Cruz becomes a lineup clog is when he desires a 3 year deal. Then in 2020 and 2021 when we are supposed to be getting better we will be forced to roster someone who is past 40 and was already in decline in 2018.
  16. SomeGuy
    Kepler and Garver are great examples of why you don't clog the lineup. Combined to just over $1M but gave us 4WAR. We were waiting out Joe Mauer's contract to unclog 1B/DH and a bunch of money. Escobar was great and should hit 3/4/5. Grossman was a lineup clog, couldn't field a position but batted well enough to justify wasting DH on him. Forsythe was only on our team to balance out the money of the Dozier trade.
  17. SomeGuy
    I think the true double standard is Willians Astudillo. We laugh when he says he wants to show that chubby players can perform too. Where is Astudillo's weight loss program? Very possible that he has one and it just isn't as public as Sano's but the fans sure don't seem to care as long as your performing.
  18. SomeGuy
    Moving on from Buxton and Sano would not be wise. One was injured the other was recovering from offseason surgery I do agree however that we should not expect them to be what we hoped. From day 1 they were over hyped. One MLB executive said it was like having Bryce Harper and Mike Trout on the same team. A down right stupid assessment. Mike Trout is the best player of all time, no one else in the majors or minors has that ceiling. We should not expect the future MVP races to be a two man race between Buxton and Sano but they are serviceable players that should eventually be above average possibly all star level.
  19. SomeGuy
    I take it your on the senseless spending train? Clog the lineup with expensive aging veterans that are in decline. Forget about putting together a young core and fill the holes with gum?
  20. SomeGuy
    Best team and highest paid team. Can't blame them for not wanting to spend more than they already are (about $232M). Trading Rick Porcello makes perfect sense, 1 year left at $21M. Probably their worst starter too.
  21. SomeGuy
    Buxton was hitting really well late in the year at AAA, at the same time the Twins were giving MLB at bats to Johnny Field. Who we never had any plans for and is no longer a part of the team. Might have helped Buxton to develop at the major league level when we weren't playing for anything. But I like the extra year so I'm kinda meh on the whole situation. Buxton has batted .310/.364/.499 at AAA in his career. At some point he is going to have to adapt to MLB pitching and he isn't going to do that at AAA, I think his learning at that level is complete. Seemed like a missed opportunity to not let him practice when we were no longer competing in 2018. Now he will still likely require some time to adjust to MLB and 2019 or beyond might be negatively affected by it.
  22. SomeGuy
    Gotta point out that most of the Mauer stuff was under an entirely different regime. Its not fair to say this front office has a double standard when they weren't behind the wheel for Mauer. Also I believe more goes into this than we are aware. I believe most players and not just Sano have offseason plans implemented by the front office and they check up on them. I don't think this is a new thing. More so on the younger developing players. Also I don't believe we can complain that much about how Sano should have done more last offseason. Falvey was quoted as saying the injury/surgery left him "completely immobilized" pretty much right up to spring training. He wasn't working out because he fouled a pitch off his leg and had to have surgery not because he was lazy. Glad he is working on strength and conditioning but if a thinner guy seriously injures his leg and struggles the next season people just say "leg injuries are tough." His weight was not ideal but I don't know how much can be attributed to that.
  23. SomeGuy
    "Standing Pat" probably isn't the best description since they have already addressed 2 areas of need but I get the idea, they weren't headline grabbing moves. We can be assume that at least one bullpen addition happens sometime and it probably won't be Kimbrel caliber. Overall I like the strategy. If a few key guys stay healthy and effective than we can compete. If they don't we will have plenty of rental options to offer other teams. Either way we will have a better idea of where our core stands in the bigger picture.
  24. SomeGuy
    They are making strides in better catching gear. Tyler Flowers is part owner of what is supposed to be the new revolution of catcher masks, Force3. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/the-year-of-catcher-concussions-and-mlbs-battle-to-do-better-with-head-trauma/
  25. SomeGuy
    It would be in his best interest to test free agency, signing him to an extension would be very hard.
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