SomeGuy
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Everything posted by SomeGuy
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Solid B from me. Could use 1 more veteran reliever. If this includes the changes to the coaching staff too I would bump it up to B+.
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I'm not very concerned about Baldelli managing the bullpen. The Rays excelled at getting the most out of inexperienced arms. He should have a much better grasp on when and where to use guys than Molitor's daily routine approach, 7th inning = player a, 8th inning =player b, etc. I would assume Baldelli's role in analytics for the Rays included who was best suited to face certain hitters.
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Buxton has some serious competition to make the All Star Game. My hot take is that Mike Trout is the starting Center Fielder in the all star game. Other CF options include Aaron Hicks, Mallex Smith, and George Springer. Since CF doesn't really matter he will also need to compete with Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, etc. What kind of season would it take for Buxton to win a popularity contest with these names? I am betting a stat line that includes a sub .250 batting average will not cut it. Even with the first half that Eddie Rosario had last year he arguably wasn't even snubbed because AL outfield is so deep.
- 33 replies
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- byron buxton
- miguel sano
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Article: Making Sense of the Lineup Makeover
SomeGuy replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I doubt they wanted to bet multiple years on the Schoop rebound. (Schoop was only interested in a 1 year deal too). It's not a bad idea to keep 1B semi open for the future. Sano could move over, Rooker or Raley could pan out in the prospect department. Signing a player similar to Austin and Cron is pretty easy, we shouldn't be too worried about the future there.- 21 replies
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- nelson cruz
- c.j. cron
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Article: Making Sense of the Lineup Makeover
SomeGuy replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm not that concerned with our OBP. I'm sure a few of the projections below will not live up to these numbers but it is encouraging that we have 8 players projected to have an above average OBP. Astudillo is probably the only one of those 8 that won't see regular playing time. Steamer 2019 OBP projections (League average was .318 in 2018) Cruz .361 Kepler .342 Polanco .333 Sano .327 Cron .323 Garver .322 Astudillo .320 Rosario .318 Adrianza .313 Castro .308 Schoop .307 Austin .306 Torreyes .306 Cave .305 Buxton .301- 21 replies
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- nelson cruz
- c.j. cron
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Chris Sale uses that strategy of taking a little off on his fastball to perfection. He likes to sit at about 94 but can dial it up to 97-98 when he needs to. He says it causes less stress on his arm and allows him to keep hitters off balance. This would be an interesting strategy for Graterol to try. Just being able to effectively mix speeds on his fastball might be a "3rd pitch".
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The Good, The Bad, and How To Fix It on Martin Perez
SomeGuy commented on Sabir Aden's blog entry in The Always Fashionable; Uncle Charlie
I don't know if I would place as much stock in your 1st inning theory. He was poor in the 1st inning for 2017-2018 but over his career it hasn't been a problem. I only saw the trend you outlined truly happen in 2017, where he was poor in inning 1 but good for innings 2 thru 4. From 2013-2016 his 1st inning ERA's were 4.50, 2.25, 1.93, and 3.82. His times through the order stats support what I would consider the usual trend in that he gets worse each time he sees the lineup. Career 1st time thru order 4.13 ERA 2nd time thru order 4.17 3rd time thru order 6.01 -
Article: Revisiting Realmuto as a Twins Trade Target
SomeGuy replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In Realmuto trade the Marlins are currently asking for Phillies prospects Sixto Sanchez(#1 in Phillies org, about 20th overall, 100MPH pitcher) and their good young MLB catcher Jorge Alfaro (similar but better track record than Garver) be included in a package, so they probably want 1 or more after that too. Kirilloff, Garver and more would be a close comparison. Subbing Graterol with Kirilloff might get it done but would be a lesser deal than what they want from Phillies package. I think I would pass. -
I don't like any of them. DH and expanding roster size to 26 are the most tolerable. Sacrificing strategy for pace of play doesn't do it for me. If the coach or catcher want to spend 15-30 seconds to plan the best course with the pitcher, let them. If the game is on the line and you think one pitcher against this one batter is the best chance to win then let them pitch to just the one batter. A lot of people get mad about a batter adjusting his gloves or walking around in between pitches but they are thinking about a lot more than their gloves, same goes for the pitcher. I don't like the idea of a mindless game where they are focused on beating the pitch clock instead of the batter. I doubt the minimal impact on pace these changes have would impact anyone's decision to watch the game or not anyway. Limiting roster size to 28 in Sept is dumb too. Teams out of contention should be allowed to play prospects.
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This is from his MLB.com writeup. His fastball will sit in the low 90s, touching a tick more at times, with solid command of it. His changeup is his best secondary weapon, an above-average offspeed pitch thrown with good sink. His two breaking balls are distinct pitches, with a tight slider and more of a pure curveball he mixes in effectively. Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 45 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50
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It helps that two of our currently known competitors are heavy favorites to land Machado or Harper. I doubt either the Padres or Phillies would turn around and sign Kimbrel as well. Teams probably don't want to officially bid on Kimbrel if they are serious about landing either of them two. The big question for me is Boston, they probably wouldn't even need to match us to win his bidding. The Braves and Dodgers seem occupied with Realmuto negotiations. The Yankees already addressed their bullpen (and did an amazing job). Not many others have shown interest or been linked to him in anyway. I doubt Kimbrel would sign anything right now. Doesn't seem like he is a priority to anyone else at the moment and waiting might be his best option. Either way it is encouraging that we currently lead the bidding, and I would think he would give us a chance to match or beat any other offer besides maybe Boston.
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Article: Show Me the Money (and the Wins)
SomeGuy replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think the Cubs will have a great year. They won 95 games with down years from Darvish, Bryant, and Rizzo. If just one of them rebounds they should be a serious threat for the World Series. -
I don't really see him fading out too quickly either. As long as he can pair an upper 90's fastball with a great curveball he should be fine. I expect him to still be a great pitcher 3 years from now. 3/45 probably won't be enough though. I think they will need to at least beat Wade Davis's 3/52M from last year.
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It's the Canadian Goose strategy of looking bigger and more intimidating. It was originally to relieve stress caused by bicep tendinitis but he says it no longer has a purpose other than being his thing. He says he was having success doing it so he didn't see the need to change even though the tendinitis is no longer an issue. He's only had one DL trip in his career and it was a knee issue in 2016. I don't think health is a serious concern for him.
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Article: Revisiting Realmuto as a Twins Trade Target
SomeGuy replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He certainly hasn't risen to the occasion when games actually count. Would any player see the Brewers as a much better position than the Twins? Possibly the best division and on the Brewers who watched all the other division teams make massive improvements while their major signing at the time was Cody Spangelberg. Every team in this division seems to be one injury away from last place. I would think 3 years in the ALC would be tempting for a good hitting catcher. Our only competition is trying to "compete with less." He could hit against pitchers like James Shields and Ian Kennedy every other day. He could DH occasionally (less so with Cruz but maybe year 2 and 3 could get him some additional AB). 3 years for a catcher is a great deal these days from the player prospective, Jason Castro was the last catcher to get 3 or more years. -
Article: Who's the Fourth Outfielder?
SomeGuy replied to TwinsTakes-RD's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The chances of either getting traded this season has to be near zero. I doubt we are actively trying to make room for any of the 4th outfield options. They all seem to be good fits for 4th OF/ emergency options. -
Article: Revisiting Realmuto as a Twins Trade Target
SomeGuy replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
His .107 batting average in 92 post season plate appearances and terrible defense last post season say otherwise. -
How similar are Rooker and Raley... Luke Raley 24 years old, listed at 6'3 220lbs. Plays OF/1B, 2018 at AA: 20HR, .275/.350/.471 Brent Rooker 24 years old, listed at 6'3 215lbs. Plays OF/1B, 2018 at AA 22 HR, .254/.333/.465
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- royce lewis
- alex kirilloff
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Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: 11-15
SomeGuy replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm assuming Luke Raley and Jhoan Duran aren't going to be listed in the top 10 but I would put both ahead of Ben Rortvedt. He is probably outside my top 20.- 96 replies
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- yunior severino
- stephen gonsalves
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Article: Revisiting Realmuto as a Twins Trade Target
SomeGuy replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Darren Wolfson of ESPN podcast Minnesota was willing to go to three years at a total of $13-15MM per season in order to bring Grandal aboard. Grandal’s camp, however, told the Twins quickly and definitively that he wasn’t interested in signing there. Given that Grandal landed one state over in Wisconsin, it’s unlikely that geography played much of a role, so perhaps signing with a clearer contender was a priority. Interesting that he preferred 18.25M for 1 season to a 45M/3 year deal. He had a good 2018, I don't think his value will go up with another good year. There's a decent chance that he left some money on the table 3 years from now. He must have really not liked something about Minnesota. -
Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: 16-20
SomeGuy replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Replacing an entire bullpen seems like a stretch. I wanted 2-3 but giving a spot to Romero and/or Mejia fills my expectations. Dan Hayes just said he thinks we might see the Twins enter the Kimbrel sweepstakes but that is mostly speculation and I highly doubt it.- 47 replies
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- gilberto celestino
- zack littell
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Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: 16-20
SomeGuy replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In a season where our lineup is relying heavily on multiple breakout seasons I would rather trade that year of Pressly but that's just me. I'm not saying we had to dump him, just that we were right to take a good deal like this if it came along. I take it you're also taking the strides Pressly took with Houston as what we are missing out on in 2019. Not sure how much of that is Houston's coaching. If we are looking to replace the 3.40 ERA (4.70 in 2017) it is a much less daunting replacement. Blake Parker could be argued for that.- 47 replies
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- gilberto celestino
- zack littell
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Article: Twins Sign Left-Handed Pitcher Martin Perez
SomeGuy replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
All projections used by Fangraphs. Steamer 2019 projections Perez 4.69 ERA Odorizzi 4.93 ERA The Bat 2019 projections Perez 4.01 ERA Odorizzi 4.06 ERA ATC 2019 projection Perez 4.69 ERA Odorizzi 4.70 ERA DepthCharts 2019 projections Perez 4.69 ERA Odorizzi 4.93 ERA

