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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Baez and Petit sure sound like the types of relievers the Twins have tended to sign over recent years, and Wood's name comes up a lot (probably the least under the radar guy on this list). Too many logs already at IB for Moreland, although he's one of those players I always respect/fear when he's coming to the plate. Robertson also sounds like a good option if Hernandez et al don't get signed for the utility role.
  2. arby58
    They don't have the money to sign both Hand and Hendriks.
  3. arby58
    A lot depends on Polanco's ankle. If that is a chronic concern and he's regressed to the hitter he was in the second half of 2019 and pretty much all of 2020, it's hard to see how switching him to second base improves the Twins much, even with Lindor in the line-up. In that case, I'd rather trade Polanco and keep Arraez. Rosenthal's comment about Lewis dazzling team officials at the alternate site in 2020 was interesting - I hadn't heard that level of praise. There also seems a lot of speculation that Lewis might eventually switch positions. However, if he truly was 'dazzling' and if shortstop is where he'll stay, it makes zero sense to trade the eventual solution at the position for a year of Lindor, even if he is the best player on the planet without a freshwater fish last name.
  4. arby58
    If nearly all of the offense hadn't regressed in 2020, I might agree with you. They'd be relying on a bunch of guys (Romo, Cruz, Polanco) who were on the down-swing in the second half of 2020 - and some who had really poor full seasons (Marwin, Cave, Adrianza).
  5. arby58
    Last year's team had enough pitching, but you won't win a play-off series (let alone a World Series) scoring one run a game. The all-in isn't going to win it. I'd prefer the 'spread it around.' Of all of the options, the 'do over' sounds the worst.
  6. arby58
    My guess is this is where Lewis lands.
  7. arby58
    Wisler and Dobnak were two pitchers that always seemed to lead to heart palpitations for me when they pitched. Their results seemed too good to be true (in Dobnak's case for half the year, anyway) from 'the eye test.' Granted, that is from the eye of a center field camera and not a batter at home plate, but the provided stats provide some support for that concern.
  8. arby58
    The Twins gave up on David Ortiz at age 26 after 3 years of gradual improvement. Dismissing 2020 (which, based on a variety of factors, seems reasonable) and comparing Sano and Ortiz at age 26, Sano in 105 games (Ortiz 125) had 380 AB (Ortiz 412) and had 34 HR (Ortiz 20), 79 RBI (Ortiz 75) hit ..247/.346/.576 for an OPS of .923 (Ortiz .272/.339/.500 for an OPS of .839) and had an OPS+ of 139 (Ortiz 120). I'm not saying that if the Twins trade him for a bag of baseballs he will have a remaining career like Ortiz, but their stats at a similar age were similar (and favoring Sano in several key categories). Yes, 2020 was dismal, with a slightly negative WAR for Sano, but trading a player with his impact potential at the low point in his MLB career sounds like the stock market equivalent of buying high and selling low.
  9. arby58
    Right - this year, the Twins were 'right' about Matt Wisler - and 'right again' about Caleb Thielbar. Some of this is a bit of a crapshoot.
  10. arby58
    As fans, we often have short memories. Littell's 2019 - at age 23 - was a very strong performance. Compare it to Alcala this year at age 24. Littell 37 innings pitched (Alcala 24); Littell WHIP 1.162 (Alcala 1.208); Littell 32 Ks and 9 BB (Alcala 27-8); Littell ERA+ 171 (Alcala 168) LittelL 2.68 ERA (Alcala 2.63). Pretty much everyone thinks Alcala has a bright future, yet Littell's 2019 was arguably better than Alcala's 2020. They're both 24. Yes, elbow injuries are a concern, but nearly every pitcher encounters them at some point (or points) in time - and pitchers like Jacob deGrom and Stephen Strasburg did all right after recovery. Of course, the Twins have more complete information, and relievers who can throw 96 and pitch an inning a game seem to be in pretty good supply. If that is what the Twins see, ok.
  11. arby58
    I still have a difficult time with the concept of a player who can only influence the outcome of a game 11 times out of 60 being the most valuable player. By that measure, I'd probably vote for Buxton, who positively impacted at least as many games, injuries notwithstanding. If it were 'best player' I'd vote for Maeda, but that's not the same as most valuable player.
  12. arby58
    It passes the eye test. I recall watching Dobnak pitch - even when he was winning games and getting people out - and the word that comes to mind is 'anxiety.' He doesn't miss many bats, and the 'pitch to contact' leaves little room for error. If he wore down or batters started figuring him out, the feeling was still the same - how will he survive this inning/this game? I sort of expected the same from Jeffers, at least at bat. From the start, the word used (solid) described him. In looking up the first full year of catchers in MLB, his stats (adjusted for at bats) look remarkably similar to Gary Carter's first year with the Expos. In 503 AB, Carter had 136 hits, 58 runs, 17 HR, 68 RBI and went .270/.360/.416 for an OPS of .776. Multiply Jeffers 55 AB by 9 and you would get 135 hits, 45 runs, 27 HR, 63 RBI, and he went .273/.355/.436 for an OPS of .791. Yes, I know about projecting the small sample size over 162 games, but for now, it's all we can do with 2020. If Jeffers has a career similar to Carter's, I suspect he and the Twins will be perfectly fine with that.
  13. arby58
    I get the impression this Twins team (and management) have sights set higher than winning the first round of the play-offs. In that case, it doesn't much matter what order you play them.
  14. arby58
    Excellent points. The stockpiling of young talent is also worth noting. We saw what Rooker could do when he was elevated - he was 'squaring up' pitches with the best of them. Still waiting in the wings are Lewis, Kirilloff, Gordon, Duran, etc. The future looks bright!
  15. arby58
    It's absolutely right that hunting down that elusive 'ace' is something of a crapshoot. Bumgarner is probably past his prime, never to return. However, the comebacks by Lance Lynn and Yu Darvish suggest that a crappy stat line one year do not necessarily mean you're forever damaged goods. Of course, in Lynn's case, he was also a jerk, so there's that. Sounds like Maeda is the 'real deal' on multiple levels.
  16. arby58
    The guy who has impressed me of late is Alcala. For one thing, you can count on him for two innings (not sure I would say the same about most of our bullpen), and there are times where that is at least desirable and maybe necessary. He's also young and on the upswing, sort of like Dobnak was last year. With the caveat that they all have done well this year and all are excellent component parts, I would probably drop Stashak and Wisler. Stashak is mostly injury concerns - if there are none, then I'd keep him and drop Clippard. With Wisler, I just don't trust a one pitch pony. Granted, you might say the same about Romo, but Romo has proven it in high leverage situations for a longer period of time. Clippard has done fine, but he is at the bottom of this strikeout list.
  17. arby58
    Buxton got the game winner, but Sano was in the middle of everything. He has been more impactful at the plate than any Twins player under the age of 40 for quite some time.
  18. arby58
    Sano is still the one that jumps out at me. He had 34 HR, 76 R and 79 RBI last year in 380 AB! Extend that out to over 500 and you get something like 45 HR with over 100 Rs and RBIs. That is a super-star year. Granted, he has to be able to keep himself in shape and healthy, and he's had problems with that. he still seems the candidate who has put up amazing half year (or less) stats on more than one occasion.
  19. arby58
    Last year, the three teams that won over 100 games in the AL were also the teams that scored the most runs - Yankees, Twins and Astros, in that order. Yes, it's great to have shut-down pitching, but it's also evident from this result that you can win a lot of games by scoring a lot of runs.
  20. arby58
    I don't understand how we 'learned anything' yesterday, other than that the Twins (like most of MLB) cannot spend like the Yankees - you just learned this? I wanted a pony when I was a kid, but I didn't get one either.
  21. arby58
  22. arby58
    Makes sense to move Lewis around, as Polanco is going to stay in the line-up and Arraez looks like the second baseman. Lewis is still likely a year away, at which point Cron's contract expires, and they could move Sano to first and Lewis plays third. Or, if Buxton can't get past his chronic injury issues, he could be in the outfield.
  23. arby58
    I don't think I've ever seen a runner so clearly out on what looked like it was going to be a bang bang play.
  24. arby58
    I'd take Nelson Cruz over any other Twins hitter in an RBI situation.
  25. arby58
    I will take it - two proven veteran relievers. Right now, a starting pitcher is only going to have about 12 more starts in the regular season. I'll take a solid reliever who will get into at least twice that many games. The Yankees seem to believe they can 'make it' with a starting pitching staff that averages 4 innings per game - I'd rather be the Twins getting more like 6.
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