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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Good question! My guess would be Weiss.
  2. arby58
    Except they got a 'lottery ticket' in return with a similar minor league grading by several of the minor league graders.
  3. arby58
    Yeah, that was pretty much ESPN's reading - they graded the trade a B for Minnesota and a B for Dodgers - when combined with their signing of Enrique Hernandez. Their reading of the minor leaguers: "F'or now, we can consider the prospect part of this a wash, and we'll see if we hear anything from these guys in a couple of years."
  4. arby58
    Margot is 29, Duvall is 35 and Taylor will be 33 this month. Margot has 12.2 WAR in 7 seasons, Duvall 11.9 in 12 seasons, and Taylor 11.3 in 9 seasons. "Certainly better" isn't looking all that certain.
  5. arby58
    I'm not sure I agree that Varland is "presumably better" than Paddock, who was pretty highly regarded before his two elbow surgeries. He was 22-21, 4.21 ERA, 2.3 WAR and 338 strikeouts in 335 innings with a 1.136 WAR. Those stats compare favorably with Varland's. If Paddock is back (his September performance was promising and you would assume the Twins were monitoring his work over the winter), I think he is a strong number four starter. Varland still has some things to prove as a starter as well.
  6. arby58
    To me, Martin seems like a logical replacement (at a much reduced salary) for Farmer. This creates a lot of flexibility, since both he and Castro can play both infield and outfield, where Farmer is just an infielder. Maybe it doesn't happen at the beginning of the year, but it sure makes sense further down the line.
  7. arby58
    At least last year, that wasn't the way the Twins rolled - they went 1,2,3,4,5 starters throughout the early part of the season rather than skipping the number 5 starter. I suspect the thought process (besides being comfortable with all 5) was that it would provide an extra day of rest here and there for the 1-4 starters, which would help them stay fresh for later in the season. Of course, it helped that they had Varland and Ober available when Mahle and Maeda weren't available.
  8. arby58
    I tend to agree with Varland as the next in line, which is why I think he starts the year in St. Paul (ala Ober last year). One minor quibble with the story - rather than losing 40 percent of their rotation from last year, they really lost about one-third, because Maeda was injured for part of the year - hence starts by Keuchel and Varland.
  9. arby58
    He had such poor years in 2021 and 2022 that it makes one pause. Of course, he's still relatively young and he had an incredible MVP season back in 2019. The other issue as I see it is he is another left-handed bat, and the Twins have had their issues with left handed pitching because of so many left-handed bats. Last year, Bellinger actually had a better OPS against LHPs, but that hadn't been the case the prior two years (in 2021, his OPS against LHP was an abysmal .383).
  10. arby58
    Even if this is 'all there is' (and I do think they will add a right-handed hitting outfielder who can play CF), last year most people didn't think Castro would even make the team let alone be an impactful player. There is the chance for some players to elevate themselves, even absent trades or free agent signings. Jeffers, Julien, Lewis, Ober, Varland, and Wallner all did last year. I was (pleasantly) surprised to see that ESPN in their projections, has the Twins fifth in MLB and a forecast of 88.9 wins and a 73.5% chance of making the playoffs. Quite frankly, if they win 89 games, they have a 100% chance of making the play-offs. In the write-up, they mentioned expected return to more normal form for Correa and Buxton and expected continued progression by their young talent. Sounds about right. They also say the Twins have picked up 2.2 wins with their offseason moves. Somewhat dubious on that. ESPN also projects the Twins farm system as 9th best in MLB, so there clearly is some decent talent in the pipeline, at least as they see it.
  11. arby58
    That's the baseball salary structure at play (which is part of the CBA with the players union). There is the opportunity for young impactful players to make extra money via the pre-arbitration bonus pool - Julio Rodríguez picked up an additional $1,865,349, Corbin Carroll $1,812,337, Adley Rutschman $1,798,439, etc. Six Twins also benefited: Ober ($432,752), Julien ($397,629), Ryan ($341,931), Lewis ($341,190), Jeffers ($300,304), and Duran ($271,789).
  12. arby58
    Well, Miller's batting average and OBP in June was .192 and .241, so pretty easy to go up from there. His OPS still bounced around and was .653 for the year. The prior year, at Fort Meyers, his OPS for the year was .627. By contrast, De Andrade at Fort Meyers last year (both in their age 19 season) had an OPS of .750. It's hard to say that Miller is ahead of De Andrade offensively. We'll see how it shakes out.
  13. arby58
    The hitting part is the rub. The top teams these days get offense as well as defense from their shortstops. You're right about the fielding part, though.
  14. arby58
    He'll be 20 in April, so it would seem a reasonable progression for him to play most or even all of this year at Cedar Rapids. He could even do a year at AA and at AAA and still arrive in time for the Twins to make a decision about where Correa plays.
  15. arby58
    I don't understand the value to the Twins in somehow reducing the cost of you attending a game where the Angels get all the revenue.
  16. arby58
    Thinking beyond this year, if Canterino and Varland emerge, that could be a really nice, relatively young and not super expensive starting rotation in 2025.
  17. arby58
    There are very few MLB veteran players who have had no injury issues - 162 games is a grind, and pitching, in particular is really tough on a body. So yeah, expect trips to the IL, but it isn't just the recent Twins history, it is baseball as a whole.
  18. arby58
    I like Canterino as well - it would be great if he could stay a starting pitcher, as we don't have nearly as much depth there as in the bullpen.
  19. arby58
    The eye test with Stewart - there were games last year where I almost felt sorry for the hitters, they were so over-matched. Unless injuries pull him down (and that is very possible), I doubt much regression, as his stuff is overpowering. The good news this year is they have far more depth than last year.
  20. arby58
    I've said this before - you could say the same thing about Brock Stewart. Topa was a high leverage guy for a team with a very good bullpen last year. If the question is 'what have you done for me lately?' he had a really good answer in 2023.
  21. arby58
    It's a good point - and part of why the Twins were willing to part with some prospect talent in recent years to acquire MLB players. The Gray trade worked out, Mahle and Jorge Lopez not so much. That said, there are only 26 and 40 spots, so moving some on occasion, even if it doesn't work out, is ok when you have a decent pipeline.
  22. arby58
    One ranking that wasn't mentioned was ESPN. They rank the Twins farm system as number 9. That is higher than those discussed here.
  23. arby58
    What about Ober suggests he has 'more injury risk than say guys that have had two or three or four years without a major injury?' He wasn't on the IL last year for an injury. For that matter, when Kenta Maeda blew out his elbow, he would have been one of those pitchers who had 'two or three or four years without a major injury.' Suggesting Ober is part of the 'house of cards' is unwarranted.
  24. arby58
    Every pitcher just getting started in major league baseball is going to have 'the first year he threw that many innings.' When you put up the stat line he did last year, there is no way he is part of a house of cards.
  25. arby58
    How is Ober part of 'a house of cards?' He started 26 games for them, threw 144.1 innings. He started another 5 games at AAA and threw 22.2 innings there. Combined, he threw 167 innings without going on the IL, had a MLB WAR of 3.0, a 3.43 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.067. Other than Lopez, he is the starting pitcher who appears to be rock solid.
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