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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    I'm not as high on Martin (at least so far) as some. Sure, he gives them positional flexibility, but he has looked a little lost at those positions at times. Also, his -0.2 WAR is nothing to write home about.
  2. arby58
    They have been really bad against the Yankees, Guardians, and Orioles, to be sure, but they have winning records against the Red Sox (2-1), Royals (5-2), Mariners (5-2), and Astros (4-2), so it's not like they can't win against teams with winning records. Many ups and downs, to be sure, but that's most teams over 162 games. Last year, they were under .500 at the All Star break, so it's hard to be too hard on this team.
  3. arby58
    Certainly possible but a bit too early to set anything in stone. The Yankees are scuffling and the Twins and Red Sox are hot - they could both overtake them (or the Red Sox could just overtake the Twins). FWIW, the Twins are still within striking distance of the Guardians.
  4. arby58
    The Orioles won 101 games, the Rays 99, the Rangers ran on fumes the end of the season and had 90 wins - just 3 more than the Twins. They were NOT 'one of the best four or five teams' if you actually use an objective standard (i.e., wins). They were tied for 7th-9th best record last year. The Rangers were 15-14 at the end of the regular season, and they went 1-7 from August 30 to September 8. It's hindsight to say they 'were stacked' when they weren't playing like it at the end of the regular season. They got hot int he play-offs - yes, it does happen, even when you are not one of the 'four or five' best teams.
  5. arby58
    What's really a surprise is that they are the defending champions - anybody who now says they predicted a Rangers-Diamondbacks World Series is a liar. It also just goes to show that anything can happen once you make the play-offs.
  6. arby58
    Jax isn't just a middle reliever - he has 7 saves. Here's a little thought experiment: This player is an American League All Star: 1-3 record, 3.00 ERA, 36 innings pitched, 37 Ks, 8 walks. 1.306 WHIP. 19 saves. This player is not: 3-3 record, 1.88 ERA, 38 innings pitched 53 Ks, 10 walks. 0.939 WHIP. 7 saves. The first is the Yankees Clay Holmes, the second is Griffin Jax. Jax is clearly better in every category except saves. As advanced analytics suggest, you're often better using your best relief pitcher in non-save situations, which is often the case with Jax.
  7. arby58
    You only raised the issue of pinch hitting for Miranda. You seriously second guess the manager for a pinch hit that resulted in a positive outcome? Some people are never satisfied.
  8. arby58
    You're joking, right? The pinch hitter (Martin) singled and scored on Correa's grand slam. The manager's 'lineups, pinch hitting and bullpen moves' have them 12 games over .500.
  9. arby58
    The team as a whole is not striking out a lot. They are 21st of 30 MLB teams in number of strike outs and 10 of 15 in the AL.
  10. arby58
    As the article notes, Miranda is still a defensive liability. Primary DH or 'removed for a late inning defensive replacement' are probably in his future. That said, you sure aren't going to keep his bat out of the lineup. I recall the year before last Correa saying he was the best hitter on the team. May prove to be true.
  11. arby58
    The 'Kirilloff wouldn't have gotten hurt and had a great season' is complete conjecture. Wallner's sudden swoon at the beginning of the season and Julien's a bit later is the cautionary tale of relying on young players (you can add Varland to that group). Meanwhile, Santana plays far better defense, is 1st on the team in walks, 2nd in HRs, 3rd in total bases, and 4th in RBIs. Considering the Twins' offensive prowess of late, he is far from 'a waste.' For that matter, Margot was signed to be a platoon player, and he has performed well against LHP, with an .873 OPS. When used in that role, he is also a valuable contributor. The future is now - and plenty of 'the kids' have not seized the moment.
  12. arby58
    Disagree - the Twins are in the play-off hunt, and Kepler is a positive contributor. You play out the season with him on the team and thank him for his contributions over the years. 'Don't want to lose him for nothing' is for rebuilding teams, not play-off teams.
  13. arby58
    Less than a week later, this post hasn't aged well.
  14. arby58
    Well, Keaschall is an infielder, so it's not an apples to apples discussion. I assume they promote Rodriguez to AAA soon, but he's still got to show it there, and he's only 21 - expecting him to be starting in RF next year seems a year too soon. I think previous posts make a cogent point on what could they expect back for a guy raking in AAA? Given payroll inflexibility, it is hard to see just what that might be unless money comes along with it. So who needs an outfielder? Well, the Royals are at the top of the list, but that isn't happening.
  15. arby58
    Let's look at just how bad he stacks up offensively. There are currently 42 catchers with at least 100 MLB at bats in 2024. Vasquez is 40th in WAR at -0.5 and 41st in OPS at .459. It would be practically impossible to be worse than that. Commargo last year had an .826 OPS at AAA. Brooks Lee, between AA and AAA was .808. Most people were clamoring for him to be on the MLB roster.
  16. arby58
    The Vasquez it's ok mantra: he's negative WAR. Whatever defensive value he may have is outweighed by perhaps the worst offensive value of any player with his at bats in MLB this year. If you believe in WAR, then it is time to move along (other than the salary thing). But think about the salary thing - nobody else is going to pick him up, so he sits in St. Paul in case you need him. In the meantime you bring up Camargo, with a nearly .800 OPS at AAA. Watching Vasquez hit this year is painful beyond belief.
  17. arby58
    I've been on the Santana bandwagon from the start - he's one of those veterans who just knows how to play. Besides, he was a Twins killer for so many years, it's a plus just to not have him in an opposing team's lineup.
  18. arby58
    Buxton has been great - and Correa may be even better of late. He's pushed his season WAR up to 3.1 and batting average to .311.
  19. arby58
    There are 41 catchers with at least 100 AB. Via WAR, Vasquez is 38th. The only catchers below him are Ruiz (Nationals), Fortes (Marlins), and Maldanado (White Sox) - teams that are a combined 57 games under .500.
  20. arby58
    So what? They then pick up the rest of this year's salary. Lee has demonstrated he's ready.
  21. arby58
    A negative WAR means you're less valuable than a replacement player. That is not a good thing, offensively or defensively.
  22. arby58
    My whole point is related to health. Just ignoring that and saying he's a better offensive player: see Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rendon, etc., etc.
  23. arby58
    I'm not so sure the advanced metrics all align with the 'Vazquez is one of the best defensive catchers' mantra. He certainly cost the Twins defensively last night. Statcast has a metric on catcher throwing leaderboard, which uses a variety of factors on throws to second base on steal attempts (including runner speed, arm strength, etc. plus attempts and caught stealing). Vazquez ranks 25th in 2024 among all MLB catchers. Jeffers, BTW, ranks 23rd. His WAR, which takes into account defense, is -0.3. Also, saying he is a poor hitter is understating things quite a bit - he's a disaster at the plate. He has the lowest batting average on the team and BY FAR the worst OPS - Farmer's OPS is .555 to Vazquez' .465.
  24. arby58
    I'm of the 'veterans are veterans for a reason' sentiment(see Santana's slow start this year and Kepler's last year), but I also agree that Lee needs to come up and the only logical thing to do is send Farmer down. Pretty close to the same opinion on Vazquez.
  25. arby58
    I'd add Buxton to the honorable mentions for MVP - he is fourth in WAR behind Correa, Castro and Jeffers and is playing excellent defense and being a disruptor on the basepaths. I'd drop Lewis - much as his start has been noteworthy, he has only played about one-fourth of their games. It's hard to be that valuable when you've spent the vast majority of the season on the IL.
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