Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

arby58

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,516

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Now you have 'missed the point.' The request was 'ask them directly' which you didn't do. Of course they aren't going to be stirred up about a trade from years ago unless given the opportunity to comment on it
  2. arby58
    You should take this rap to a Rays discussion board and ask their fans if they think it was 'no big deal' that they basically gave away what is now a starting pitcher with an ERA under 3. Just as the first thing you learn in investing is that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, I'm not buying into the first half/second half theory to explain Ryan this year. As he admitted, he was injured last year and tried to play through it - that was dumb, but it helps to explain his performance. Second, he IS throwing harder this year on his fast ball, and he is actually throwing it less often - which was probably part of the 'catch up' in previous years. This idea that it takes the league time to catch up doesn't make a lot of sense - they have tape of every game he pitches, they shouldn't need volumes of his work to 'catch up' if that is what they are able to do. Mowing down the hot-hitting Royals yesterday was impressive - I get the impression you didn't actually watch the game.
  3. arby58
    "The point"" is here and now. Here and now the Rays would benefit from having Ryan, and suggesting it's ok because they MIGHT churn out another talented pitcher is just a rationalization of a bad trade for them. Did you watch yesterday's game? I did - Ryan overpowered a line-up that is second in the AL (and fourth in all of MLB) in runs scored. He threw harder than ever, and he was efficient as well - 9 Ks no walks. Rationalize that away.
  4. arby58
    Statistically speaking, it is not overrated - hard hit balls will, more often than not, result in positive results for the hitter. That's not 100 percent, but it is the case more often than not. Morneau (who knows something about hitting) made a comment yesterday about the confounding nature of baseball and the ninth inning was an example. That inning had little to do with the pitchers, it was just one of those weird innings.
  5. arby58
    Given the Rays are currently 23rd in MLB in ERA (and have a losing record), my guess is their fans would be ecstatic to have Ryan in their rotation.
  6. arby58
    Even less than that - 55 games.
  7. arby58
    I get it, they scored 4 runs in the 9th inning, but that was about as collective soft contact as you'll see for a team scoring 4 runs in an inning.
  8. arby58
    I think the Polanco comparison is more apt than Arraez, because Lee has not put up high batting averages in the minor leagues. Granted, he's been younger than the league at AA and AAA, but his type of hitting (with more power ala Polanco) doesn't really align with Arraez. Plus he's a switch hitter like Polanco.
  9. arby58
    You really think they are going to send Duran down to AAA? What color is the sky in your world?
  10. arby58
    This seems a bit of an overreaction.
  11. arby58
    Ultimately, Duran throws the pitch - I simply do not believe that the Twins will tell their best relief pitcher that he needs to throw the pitch the pitching coach/catcher call 'or else.' Or else what? I still think this is on Duran. Baldelli criticism to me seems hindsight driven. He makes a lot of moves, so when they don't work out, it is subject to criticism. I suspect he doesn't get enough credit for times when those moves work out.
  12. arby58
    It was the first thing that I wondered about after the Guardians series. He's a power pitcher, and if he has lost some mph on his pitches, that is reason to be concerned. He did so well coming off the injury - maybe there are some lingering issues?
  13. arby58
    Baldelli has always seeemed like a bit of a 'rah rah' guy to me. Perhaps because he was a player himself, he has seemed to go out of his way to praise the players and stay away from direct criticism. Those comments seemed out of character. Duran as well, but not quite as much.
  14. arby58
    I've done statistics for a living, so this stuff doesn't really surprise me as presented. In my world, we create ARIMA (auto-regression integrated moving average) models to forecast future outcomes, where a time series is regressed on its own past values, it is then made stationary (such as removing seasonality) and then regressed on past forecast errors. The first thing we learn about these is the need to use human intervention, because lots of stuff outside of statistical models needs to be taken into consideration. In the world you rely upon, you are aggregating outcomes - fine, but it loses the individual impact in specific games. Lots of baseball people refer to that as 'clutch hitting.' It's like when Royce Lewis comes up with the bases loaded and does you know what. Of course, it happens that he does that in lots of instances, but maybe the Carlos Santanas of the world should be recognized when they 'go off' for three or four games in a row and have a pretty direct positive impact on the outcome of games. I'd much rather have Santana winning a game they probably otherwise don't win with a 3-run homer than a guy who stuffs stats with a bunch of singles that don't really produce much of anything.
  15. arby58
    Rocco: "Carlos has been excellent. He's been a big part of our offense really coming alive," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. "He's hitting balls hard. He's feeling good. He's shooting line drives all over." Which loss would you put on him - he definitely won yesterday's game.
  16. arby58
    Any assessment will be 'a bit premature.' Kepler was lousy last year the full first half and then was great. Who knew? That said, early in the season, people were ready to sell Santana for a bag of used batting practice balls, and he now is second on the team in HRs and RBIs. That is worth pointing out, no?
  17. arby58
    Rocco on Santana. https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/rocco-baldelli-on-the-series-win-over-the-blue-jays
  18. arby58
    Miranda didn't even start the year with the Twins. You're doing the 'hindsight 20-20' thing. Meanwhile, back in reality, Santana is a far better first baseman than Miranda will ever be - that's why the Twins are playing him at 3B. Santana won the game for the Twins today. He has pretty much won a couple others as well.
  19. arby58
    Second on the team in HRs, second in RBIs. Those are for the year, not a few games. As for Miranda, were you crystal balling it before the start of the year and suggesting they make him a full starter? Not many were - easy now, in hindsight. He also can't play the defense that Santana plays at 1B.
  20. arby58
    Fair enough, Doc, and you're right, he isn't going to lead the team in any offensive category. That said, today's game had the feel of one where the Twins were going to waste a great Ober start - and then it was 3-0. He won the game for the Twins today (give Ober an assist).
  21. arby58
    I liked the Santana signing, if nothing else because he was, for years, a Twins killer. At least he wouldn't be on another team doing that, right? I'm always amazed at the fan/critics who take the first 10, 20, 30 games and project that on a player for the entirety of a 162 game season. Santana has had a couple of important home run streaks for the Twins - where they were the impetus to winning several games. He now is tied for second on the team in home runs and is second in RBIs. So, those who laughed at my support for the signing - who is laughing now?
  22. arby58
    I don't disagree about Lewis' need to be out there all the time, but if you agree Miranda has earned playing time, where will it come? Santana is also slotted in against left-handed pitching at first and is a better defensive first baseman. The Twins are needing to keep Jeffers bat in the lineup, so he's taking the DH at bats. The only logical move that I see is Lewis moving to second against left handed hitters and putting Miranda at third - unless we think Miranda can play second base in those situations. He did play second base a fair amount in the minors.
  23. arby58
    With Miranda contributing and looking pretty solid, it gets you thinking: what do they do when Royce Lewis is ready to come back? They're both right handed hitters who seem best at 3B. Given that Jeffers is spending a lot of time at DH, it limits those options. It doesn't look like Santana is going anywhere, so 1B isn't really an option. Dare I say that maybe Lewis shifts over to 2B against left handed pitchers? I hate myself for even saying it, but . . .
  24. arby58
    They're finding ways to win. Santana hits a home run, Ryan goes seven, Correa gets two hits and scores two runs, and Kepler delivers a huge pinch hit. Nice to win without a contribution from Jeffers. That said, the bottom of the order when they go with the right-handed hitters was pretty anemic.
  25. arby58
    Baseball's salary structure is unique - they get absolutely 'killing it' value from Julien, Ober, Lewis (when healthy), SWR, etc., because of the early years pay scale. Thus, $10 million worth of value is different for veteran players when you are getting probably $10 million worth of value from a couple of those guys.
×
×
  • Create New...