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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Not entirely true. They went for it in 2022, trading 4 prospects for Jorge Lopez, 3 for Tyler Mahle, and 1 for Michael Fulmer. The results were underwhelming, but with the exception of an ok MLBer in Steer, none of the other prospects has become an MLB regular.
  2. arby58
    Lackey is older and more refined both offensively and defensively. My guess is he makes AAA before Tait.
  3. arby58
    The minors aren’t about their “solid w-l records.” It’s no coincidence that the Wind Surge opposite of a surge coincided with a bunch of their better players being promoted to AAA (Ross, Oliver, Me Des, Gallagher).
  4. arby58
    You’re going to have to give up a couple of good prospects for Winn, let alone getting Soriano. The Angels owner has never gone for a full tear down, so my guess is you’ll have to give up at least a couple of MLB (or just about ready) players plus prospects if you want Soriano as part of the deal.
  5. arby58
    Slight alteration: both of their last two 1st rounders drafted out of college started at A, and after around 10 games moved to A+. I suspect that will be the case here as well.
  6. arby58
    Absolutely right. I was concerned when he was hired that he was just a retread who was the 'safe' choice. Instead, he seems to be a steadying influence - not so much tinkering ala Rocco. When he has moved things around (like Clemens going to 2B, Lewis to 1B, Keaschall to the OF, and Lee to anywhere but SS), the results seem better.
  7. arby58
    Pointing out some significant concerns about Keaschall isn't 'hating' him. There was a piece in Baseball Prospectus back in February that made similar points about him: "It brings me no joy to throw a wet blanket over the Keaschall hype, but his power is below the minimum acceptable standard for an MLB starter. His 100.8 mph EV90 is practically tied with two other second basemen—Andrés Giménez and Nico Hoerner. Player EV90 (mph) Z-Con% BB% DRC+ DRP PA WARP Andrés Giménez 100.8 84.1% 6.8% 81 2.4 369 0.8 Nico Hoerner 100.7 95.7% 6.0% 105 6.1 649 3.6 Luke Keaschall 100.8 89.9% 9.2% 108 -0.4 207 0.9 Keaschall’s overall offensive value is similar to Hoerner’s, but they get there in different ways. Hoerner makes an extreme amount of contact, which he’s able to repeat year after year. Keaschall has a good zone-contact rate, but it’s not elite. He supplements his value by drawing more walks, which might dry up if pitchers challenge him more in the strike zone, since he’s just a singles hitter. The biggest difference separating Giménez and Hoerner from Keaschall is that they have five Gold Gloves between them, and Keaschall is a below-average defender. Almost all of the players with his lack of pop are either great fielders, bench players, or both. He doesn’t make enough contact or play his position well enough to get to Hoerner’s level, and there aren’t many other paths for players without power." Sure, he's still young, but the underlying metrics are working against him.
  8. arby58
    For context, in 2026, Stubbs has played 1B for 5 innings, 3B for 2 innings, and LF for 1 game (8 innings). He’s caught 69 innings. He’s primarily a 3rd catcher. With a .429 OPS, he would not be on the 26 man roster otherwise.
  9. arby58
    In any MLB team statistic, a. Team will be 1 and a team will be 30. The Twins may not be ‘the norm’ but I don’t believe they are that far off. Cleveland has Petey Halpin in the OF, and in 30 games has 67 PAs. Given he has a 23 OPS+, and has been a defensive replacement in 16 of those games, his role looks similar the Twins’ 26th player. The Phillies keep 3 catchers, and Garrett Stubbs has appeared in 20 games with just 32 PAs and sports a .172 BA and .429 OPS. Those are Outman-like numbers. There are others, but those two examples suggest the Twins are not alone.
  10. arby58
    The 13th player is 13th for a reason. Pretty much every team has something similar. For Cleveland, it is Gabriel Arias - 5 years in MLB, cumulative 1.1 WAR, but he can play anywhere on the infield. Has 97 PAs in 31 games this year.
  11. arby58
    It’s probably a moot point with Culpepper, since I expect to see him with the Twins sooner rather than later. I’d slot Lackey 3rd at the start - Culpepper also plays an important defensive position and is doing pretty well offensively. He’s got an .868 OPS, 14 HR, 15 SB, and a decent ratio of Ks (51) to BB (37). If they get Lackey into MiLB and he performs, that could change. They started both Culpepper and Houston at A and then quickly to A+. If they do so with Lackey, will they promote Tait to AA at the same time?
  12. arby58
    Agree on the team in general, but Houston is an exception. Part of the Wind Surge’s decline in talent (and wins) were because of promotions to St. Paul (Ross, Rosario, Mendez, Oliver, Gallagher, Culpepper).
  13. arby58
    The Twins got back some important pieces, and these trades were about the future, not the present. Jax brought Bradley, our current #2 starter. Duran returned Abel, who was promising as a starter before being injured, and Tait, the Twins top five prospect. I know the Varland trade has generated the most heat - but Roden has already helped win two games, and Rojas has had his moments. Wait a bit to see how these turn out. The Escobar trade looked bad until, a few years later, Duran became a stud closer.
  14. arby58
    This was my call awhile back. Jeffers will show he’s back, and the Twins will trade him to the Yankees.
  15. arby58
    A comp pick is probably more of a lottery ticket than what they can get for him as a rental. They got Hendry Mendez and a pitching prospect for Harrison Bader. They got two AA pitchers for Willi Castro, one of whom is now at AAA. Jeffers will fetch more than either of them.
  16. arby58
    There’s no way Quentin Young is the Twins 14th best prospect. Another 2 Ks last night - he’s now struck out in 45% of his plate appearances, is hitting .207 with a .657 OPS. Plus he is butchering the left side of the infield defensively, with 20 errors in 194 chances. By contrast, Culpepper has 4 errors in 209 chances.
  17. arby58
    Sounds good in theory, but Jeffers’ agent is Scott Boros. No way he’s signing before testing free agency. The Yankees are all over him. How do you think that is going to turn out for the Twins? Answer: with Alex Jackson as your starting catcher in 2027.
  18. arby58
    I’m shocked BB and the Twins staff didn’t listen to them.
  19. arby58
    What is the point of these hindsight is always 20-20 complaints? You think you know more on these decisions than BB, the manager, their training staff? You don’t - you are just Monday morning quarterbacking with knowledge not known when actual decisions have to be made.
  20. arby58
    To paraphrase Soren Kierkegaard, a baseball season can only be understood backwards but must be played forward.
  21. arby58
    For Detroit, Outman is hitting .163, OPS of .588, and OPS+ of 61. If I were the Twins, I’d inquire as to whether the Tigers are interested in picking up Gray if he were on the waiver wire for cash considerations. I wonder how much the Twins would have to pay the Tigers?
  22. arby58
    There’s a huge difference between finding a back-up catcher and finding a starting catcher. I’m also missing the rationale behind catcher obsolescence - they still take 11% of the at bats and haven’t been replaced by ball return robots.
  23. arby58
    I’ve never heard of him. Pretty glaring hole to fill if this guy doesn’t materialize. The kind that would cause anguished posts on this website about their lack of vision.
  24. arby58
    Then who catches in 2027? We can’t only be concerned about the future.
  25. arby58
    About the relief pitching?😉
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