arby58
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Everything posted by arby58
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Ryan first, Lopez second, but Buck might get the second spot. They should (with their record) get at least two players on the roster.
- 30 replies
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- byron buxton
- harrison bader
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How Good Has Twins First Baseman Ty France Been So Far?
arby58 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Interestingly, Luke Keaschall played 13 games at 1B in 2024 at Wichita, which was more than CF (11) or 2B (10). -
How Good Has Twins First Baseman Ty France Been So Far?
arby58 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
At this time of year, any discussion of performance needs to carry the 'small sample size' warning label. We've seen both sides of how this can play out: Gallo started off really strong and then faded. Santana started off slow and then picked it up as the year went along. I think it is fair to say that when you offer little more than the league minimum to a player, you can't expect a lot more than average output. In that sense, given some of the performance to date, this looks like a solid move for the Twins. That said, they really need to find their 1B for the future, because France is serviceable but not super impactful. -
The tall guy isn't on the 40 man roster, so I doubt that is in the cards short-term.
- 72 replies
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- kody clemens
- simeon woods richardson
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They had two consecutive days off - pitching today shouldn't overly tax the bullpen tomorrow. My guess is that Duran, Coulombe, Sands, and Topa are all plenty available - none of them threw more than 11 pitches in a pretty stress free inning of work today. Agree that it's probably time to drop SWR in favor of Festa (still think he's ahead of Matthews in the pecking order).
- 72 replies
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- kody clemens
- simeon woods richardson
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Has Time Run Out For These Two Twins?
arby58 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agree, although expecting much of anything in return (other than players similarly in need of 'a change in scenery') is Quixotic. -
If the season ended today, the AL Central would have 3 teams in the play-offs - versus one from the east and two from the west. Detroit, Cleveland, and KC are not 'weak enough' in comparison to the rest of the AL.
- 73 replies
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- byron buxton
- harrison bader
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Their starting/relief pitching will get them there - it's whether they can generate consistent offense to keep them there. Can't do it with just Buxton above .800 OPS.
- 73 replies
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- byron buxton
- harrison bader
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Bader has been really good, and France has been acceptable - lots of people on this board who thought differently a few months ago. I know, it's a long season, but Bader also brings super defense to go along with good offense. Given the Twins credit for that pick-up.
- 73 replies
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- byron buxton
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Edouard Julien and the Very Hard Game
arby58 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Andrew Wiggins is not 'bad at basketball.' He's been in the NBA for 10 years and has a player efficiency rating of 14.7, where 15.0 is average. That's not great, but it's not bad, either. Granted, he hasn't performed like the first pick in the NBA draft, but he has been an All Star and has been a starter on multiple play-off teams. A better comparison would be, say, Delmon Young. Young had one very good year with the Twins, where he generated a 1.9 WAR. He had a negative WAR in 5 of the next 6 years, and his career WAR, over 10 years, was 3.2. -
Edouard Julien and the Very Hard Game
arby58 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Welcome to the 2020s baseball, not just the Twins. Batting average isn't all that telling. Julien's .263 BA is far less important than his .381 OBP, .839 OPS (helped by his 16 HRs in 408 PAs) and 130 OPS+. Those are far more telling stats about a strong 2023 for Julien. -
Right, like everything, it depends. So, for example, if a player only puts up average numbers against older pitchers but suddenly puts up great numbers against players his own age, it may be that it took him time to 'catch up' which may be a good thing. Then you could have a player who puts up below average numbers against players his own age and then puts up strong numbers against players younger than him. That might tell you something. Yes, players get slotted at levels that isn't necessarily age dependent, but the slots can have significant variation in ability and where the player is in development. Thus, a younger player who ends up in, say, AA can be quite different in terms of readiness for one who took longer to advance through A+ and is now in his second year of AA. In those instances, it may well make a difference. Not always, but some of the time.
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Paddock is 0-3, Twins are 0-5 in his 5 starts. 6.45 ERA, 5.93 FIP. 13 BB in 22.1 innings pitched. If this is fine, I shudder to think what 'not fine' looks like. 5 starts does not make a season, but with these results, he's never going to make it up on volume. I'd guess he gets another 5 to at least begin to turn it around. I'll take the under.
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"Top prospects" are a dime a dozen. Nearly every team has several each year that make at least one of the top 100 prospects lists - they can't all possibly become MLB regulars, let alone stars. My guess is more of them 'ruin themselves' because they just don't have the innate ability or willingness to adjust to make it at the MLB level than have ruination foisted upon them. Honestly, the abuse heaped upon Rocco and his coaching staff baffles me sometimes. He has a lifetime winning record, he did something the Twins hadn't done since 2002 (win a play-off series), and he's done it with a below average payroll. He's not the best manager in MLB (although he did win AL manager of the year back in 2019), but he's gotten about as much in results out of the talent that surrounds him as could be expected.
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I think it a little harsh/myopic to declare the season over at this point. Last year, on April 18, 2024, the Texas Rangers were leading the AL West and the Astros were in last place with a 6-14 record. That completely flipped by the end of the year. In fact two of the six teams to make the play-offs in both leagues would not have been in the play-offs at this point in time last year. Baseball is unlike any of the other major sports, just based on the number of games played in the regular season. My suspicion is the Twins would have gladly cut the last 19 games off of last year's schedule. A lot can change when you play 162 games.
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Just a minor note: it was 2024, not 2023 where Morris pitched 33 2/3 innings at St. Paul. Likewise, he opened 2025 (not 2024) at St. Paul. Minor stuff, but it confused me when I first read it. Otherwise, thanks!
- 29 replies
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- andrew morris
- zebby matthews
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All the Rocco hate seems a little unfair to me. It's not as if he has had a roster full of high-salaried players, yet his win loss record is far from the bottom in Twins baseball history: Manager Wins Losses Percentage Billy Martin 97 65 .599 Sam Mele 522 431 .548 Bill Rigney 208 184 .531 Cal Ermer 145 129 .529 Rocco Baldelli 288 258 .527 Ron Gardenhire 1,068 1,039 .507 Frank Quilici 280 287 .494 Gene Mauch 378 394 .490 Tom Kelly 1,140 1,244 .478 Johnny Goryl 34 38 .472 Paul Molitor 305 343 .471 Ray Miller 109 130 .456 Billy Gardner 268 353 .432 Gene Mauch was considered an 'old school' good manager - and had a losing record with the Twins. TK is beloved (and won two World Series) but also had some really rough years. Billy Martin had the best win percentage (in one year), but punching out one of your players in the alley behind a Detroit bar wasn't exactly endearing.

