bunsen82

Correa is having a very good season, likely will end up with a 6 WAR season, but that is what $35 million should get you. He is not being overlooked. I will give you Jax and then I will give you 4 more overlooked players going into this season and that I think are being undervalued currently. 1. Gary Sanchez - average is putrid, slightly above the mendoza line, OBP is .275, however he has delivered in some critical spots. He is sitting at 28 RBI's on the year, on track for close to 90 and has played decent defense (something that his been ridiculed). He has brought some stability to the C position. I would still like the batting average around .240 and OBP in the .320 to .340 range, but for a player most were willing to write off at the beginning of the season, a .4 WAR has been a very welcomed surprise. 2. Urshela - someone who was merely holding the spot for Miranda to come take his place has done pretty well. Some defensive metrics don't like him, but from what I have seen he has brought a lot of stability to the team. A solid player that brings his lunch box to work. Nothing to flashy just does the little things that lead to a team winning. Another player with .5 WAR 3. Nick Gordon - The player many have wanted cut, just keeps producing, playing whatever position he has asked and being an above average defensive player. The bat has done enough for being a primarily defensive player. Showing up with a .4 WAR - that is all you can ask for from a bench player. 4. Celestino - A player that was called up to just be a short term filler, has continued to find playing time. The bat up to this point has been very effective, with an average above .300 an OBP at .400 and above average defense. He has put up a .4 WAR as well. 3 of the 4 players were either expected to be backups/platoons or not even on this team. They have combined for 1.7 WAR. For players that there has been minimal expectations, they have all outperformed those expectations from the beginning of the season and allowed the Twins to get through the myriad of injuries they faced while still getting some wins.

The calculus on this has changed drastically since Lewis was injured. Now not only would you have to trade Correa, you would have to trade for a replacement in the process. Also with an additional major injury to Lewis, as freak as it was, I am getting so serious Buxton vibes going on. At this point I would be tempted to work on an extension with Correa if he truly is interested.

You mean teams that have lower budgets generally aren’t as competitive as the highest salary teams? That is some high level sleuthing. I think we should be shooting for budgets similar to the Cardinals who have won some championships. You need to manage your salary and prospects.

I feel bad for Royce. There was nothing in that play that you would have thought a tear should have occurred. As to Correa the calculus has completely changed and the insurance policy of Correa is going to pay off. I am really tempted to see if we can resign him now. 5-7 years if he really wants to stay in Minnesota.

This post is spot on. We can likely protect 6-8 of the above mentioned list, but we won't be able to protect all of them. I am not sure who you are referencing with SGL - thats a new shorthand for me (Nevermind, Sawyer Gipson Long). I agree with Julien being on the fence but personally I like him. He likely has some decent trade value. The only one that if he continues to hit towards .900 OPS the rest of the season will be Holland. You start getting a SS with above average defense and strong bat and that is a valuable commodity. Still only at high A but that is the only other individual that I see could really rise in the organizations eyes and value to other teams. Currently I wouldn't protect SGL, Mooney, and Julien, Holland. I do think they find a spot for Palacios, which means they are going at the high end of 9 players. We will have to see. There can still be injuries, poor performance and strong performance that can heavily influence decisions.

Currently Camargo is in AA but will likely be going back once Isola is healthy. Isola is only 1 year older. I will say Camargo is showing a bit (more than I would have thought at trade time), however Isola is looking like a bat that can play in the big leagues. Assuming he continues to do well. He moves up to AAA next year, is protected and is your emergency catcher if someone gets hurt.

I think the Twins need to manage their pipeline, using some pieces that they likely won't retain for some bullpen help is very reasonable. I don't think they need to use any of their top 10 to 15 prospects unless they deem the value to be well worth it, and right now we have to give management the benefit of the doubt. They have put all levels of baseball teams in a very good postion.

The pitching lineup for Friday looks really strong. Winder, Varland, Headrick, and Adams.

At some point we should get Alcala back, and in Maeda late July to August. We need 2 more arms to give us at least a shot. I don't think we have the starting pitching this year to get us through the playoffs. Lack of experience ect. The playoffs is a different ball game than the regular season. I think Ryan needs another year of seasoning, as well as Ober/Winder to see who really can be a solid #2 or #3 for the playoffs. The bats have shown they can hit the elite pitching, but I still think they are a little bit too much swing and miss for my liking. Our true window is opening up next year and appears to be open for a while. I don't see any reason to rush it at this current time.

If you want to sell a prospect here the ones with highest values- Highest-Lewis Next level - Steer, Martin, Miranda, Woods Richardson. Maybe Rodriguez and Miller, Balazavic (maybe trending to lower level) Mid level - Varland, Wallner, Raya, Julien, Hajjar, Festa, Headrick, Soulerie, Povich, Isola, Palacios, Enlow, Strand (possibly moving up) , Cavaco (buy Low Candidate), Sabato and Rosario There are several more prospects that other organizations may like for depth or for projection on their ability especially A ball pitchers.

Honestly we should be cheering Donaldson. He was the first big time player that gave management a shot and showed big time players can come to Minnesota. Without Donaldson, we never try to clear money and possibly never get Correa. With Donaldson/Correa we are firmly in the conversation with big time free agents in the future. We won't overpay but we will give fair deals for these individuals. Donaldson needs to calm down on his antics, but ultimately he did everything for the Twins he could have and the Twins are better off than they were to signing the contract with him. Those last 2 years always had the possibility of being painful.

Holland could cause us problems as well if he continues to flash. Prato I think is below the line, but is close. That 2019 class is deep.

Add in Headrick, Isola - Mooney and Laweryson probably haven't shown enough. I also think something will probably have to be done with Palacios as well. I did this exercise a couple weeks ago and there are going to be several spots open for next year. Look at our minors players we are currently protecting - Godoy, Henriquez, Enlow, Balazovic and Strotman. Those can either be trade chips for a reliever or cut. I really think Henriquez and Enlow are going to have minimal impact for the Twins compared to some of the others. Just cut Strotman now. At the catcher position you will need at least 1 catcher added or resign Sanchez so nothing really gained there. You can drop Godoy and add either Carmago or Isola whichever you prefer to keep at the end of the season. That saves 1 position. 1st base will be interesting, but most likely we let Sano go and do not sign another first baseman and fill with internal canditates. Opens 1 spot SS- Most likely Correa is gone and we fill with Lewis. Opens 1 spot. 3rd base- Urshela - this is a tough one. Ultimately with Miranda, Steer Available, I think Urshela is let go. Opens 1 spot Pitchers - this is going to be lots of changes up and down and injured players let go. Bundy will likely not be back. Archer we have an option. Maeda can fill spot for RP or SP. Smith is on a 1 year contract and gone. You can let go of Stashack, Duffey Coulumbe and Cotton, but some players will be needed to fill those spots. Stashack may be one due to injury not picked up. Ultimately I see 3 spots opened and see if Canterino and another couple pitcher can be relievers or starters for the big league team. Even still we will have a couple prospects that we will be at risk of losing unless we trade away. Montas isn't what we will be looking at. For these OK prospects they may net you an ok or decent reliever. I don't see us going after any decent SP unless has several years still on the contract.

Miranda and Steer for 3rd base next year, have nice insurance if one can't quite figure it out or if there is injury.

If that were the case last year he should have completely fallen off after they banned the substances. I think he is losing confidence, and right now cannot through the pitches the way he was in previous years. Not sure if ability is slightly waning or more mental.

The bats actually did ok through the 5-6th inning, the wheels fell off later as we got further into the bullpen. The bullpen needs to get some arms back or help from the minors or injury list. Other than Alcala not much coming on the horizon.

Thanks Squirrel, I hadn't heard Dobnak's recovery was not going well. Maeda most likely will be a reliever. But if push came to shove and we needed another starter at the end of the year he could possibly do the Archer role. I thought Mid to end of July was the timeline on Maeda.

We have only legitimately gone after a couple big name pitchers during the last 6 years with Darvish being the most notable. They never want to be outbid. Even on Donaldson they waited until he came down to their value they were willing to pay.

Thats much different than going all in on a Montas - I can agree with either of those pickups.

What was his OBP just over a week and a half ago - surprise surprise he was at .378. He has had a few poor games in June so far, OBP of .286 in 5 games. No offense but in a single game he could revert to the mean if he has a game like Arraez where he gets on base 4-5 times. Where is the crazy in that. You remove the small outliers and small sample sizes and things look decent. Yes I do think he will improve his bat. whether by getting stronger, whether the temps warm up and the ball starts to travel better, I do think he will get back on track. I am done with this thread as we both have obvious biases.

You are assuming Martin won't improve his bat, my baseline is Martin is .300 average hitter. I think it has underplayed as he is trying to hit more homers. One of 2 things happens, the power comes which boosts the average by those outs becoming hits, or he truly adopts the Arreaz method, essentially ignoring home runs and spraying balls all over the field and continue to get walks as he has an elite eye. You are willing to give the projection on Steer, but no projection on Martin - take that back you have a very negative projection lol. We can all have prospects and players we like. Honestly I could care less where Martin is ranked, it comes down to the type of player he can be for the Twins. I would love to have another Arreaz like player on the team.- even if it is a light version of him. 23 years old is still incredibly young.

Its his OBP - I have always loved players like him and Arreaz. If his OBP plummets fine, but if he remains a 380+ OBP player that is a top 20 OBP player every year in the big leagues. That has immense value especially as a table setter, and if you can't understand that, I don't know what to say. You are essentially basing your negative view point on 2 months. Talk about a small sample size. You need to let the season play out before you want to trade a player for 50 cents on the dollar or regulate him to a no longer useful prospect.

Average is essentially meaningless for the type of players Arraez and Martin are. Arraez may get a few more doubles, but Martin makes that up with stolen bases. .380 OBP players are players that teams build their teams around. I would be happy if Martin became a bit more of a slap hitter, right now it appears he is trying to become the power hitter Steer is by having many balls caught at the warning track. No offense but if pitchers start going after Martin he will be able to tee off. His bat especially during college has shown that. My guess is he ends up with 6-8 homeruns this year. We will see.

Ryan should be back shortly. None of the other injuries should be long term- back within a week or two other than Paddack for players who have currently been starters. Dobnak and Maeda will be available later. Personally I see no need to spend big on a starter, unless we want to start consolidating our prospects a bit which I am fine either way. We will most likely be looking for a player with multiple years of control. I would be curious to see if we will have more just minor league trades this year. I really don't think the Twins are too interested in selling off on their prospects unless they can consolidate into better values. For help this year, I could see an Enlow for a slightly above average RP with a team whose pitching prospects are poor. Remove a player from the 40 man to open another spot for some slight value this year. Otherwise Enlow is likely dropped from the 40 man later in the year and picked up by another team.

Palacios is essentially on-par with a Kiner-Falefa. He needs to show just a tad more bat, but that player is an asset in this league - either as a utility player or a defensive shortstop similar to the Yankees trading for Kiner Falefa.