bunsen82

Houston promoted to A+

3rd best odds is the highest they can logistically go, unless the White Sox sweep us. We should have pretty good idea by mid September. The 7 games against the White Sox will be big. We end with quite a few solid teams.

My point was without making the trades we still had an outside shot of making the playoff. The roster we had is the type of roster that could have won it all. At least 2 strong SP - Ryan and Lopez - A strong bullpen. All you would have needed is the hitters to get hot. (Not likely but possible). Yes its early, but the issue is - some of those players are rentals. Paddack, Castro and Bader they only have value for less than 2 months. Their value is eroding rapidly. Secondly, Sometimes good constructed teams fail. My personal opinion is the dynamics of the team didn't work because we lacked the proper player leadership. I would be fine with a coaching change, specifically hitting. The pitching side honestly we have done pretty well. I still think we paid for Correa, Lopez and Buxton to lead the team, and they were unable to stay healthy or productive for significant stretches. It happens. If you think the front office and the coaching is at fault I guess you fire them. Yet most here seem to be upset we traded Correa - when Correa's underperformance was 1 of the key reasons why the team has underperformed. It also appears in regards to Jax he was one of the reasons Jax requested to be traded. I still think the majority of the issue is ownership, they set up a long term budget for the team to work with, signed players then pulled the rug on the front office who was unable to supplement their plan under the current budget. Is that the front offices fault? I would say no. So now the front office says we are going to act completely like a small market team and now everyone is questioning them. Is that fair? To some extent. Sometimes plans like 2019 come together. Sometimes you find a core like a Puckett, Hrbek, and Gaetti. You need to keep trying, otherwise you are just giving up. On this board it seems like too many posters, writers just want to give up. I've said it before I was a fan in the mid to late 90's where there was no hope, all we had was Radke. Then you had the 2010's where all you had was Dozier. There is a lot more to root for now. The Pittsburg Steelers and Green Bay have shown consistency of leadership and coaching is your most likely chance of success. I do think Rocco is solid but not great. As to the prospects, this is the most talented and deepest pool of prospects we have had at minimum since 2015, and honestly this seems maybe closer the early 2000's Mauer, Morneau, Hunter, Santana time period. You hope prospects jell and perform like that time period. Or you can also have a situation like the White Sox or Orioles where it seems to fall apart. So under Falvey and Rocco have led the Twins to the Playoffs in 2017, 2019, 2020, 2023. They were in 1st place in their division in 2021 and 2024 and failed to make the playoffs in meltdowns. That isn't poor performance. That is solid above average performance. Baldelli has a .518% winning % as a small to mid market team. That tells me they are doing somethings right. So yes go ahead and blow it up if you wish. Don't give the kids a chance - sorry Keaschall, Culpepper, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez. We are just upset with the year - that ownership isn't selling - that we traded players and the season didn't go the way we wanted. So we want retribution - we want someone else to pay. Why?? Why are we all so negative and want to ignore the good things this organization has done, and have coming down the pipeline. I am willing to continue to look at the positive side. I have always been that way. I can understand why some take a pessimistic view. I think we can all meet somewhere in the middle. Ultimately fans can walk away. That is risk that is occurring with the Pohlads ownership. The bigger issue is if you think Ownership is so bad, who would want to come in and take the front office positions and be the Head Coach? There is a high probability it is worse than what we have now.

Stewart is hurt. Baders OPS is .593 and Castro's is .375. The only 3 doing really well are Duran, Varland and Ty France who looks legit good in Toronto. There was still an outside chance the Twins made a run at the playoffs with getting Keaschall back.

Just to show how tight the teams are for draft percentages for the lottery. Cardinals 61 wins (ineligible for lottery) Rays 61 wins Giants 60 wins Angels 60 wins (ineligible for lottery) Diamondbacks 60 wins Marlins 59 wins Twins 58 wins orioles 57 wins Braves 56 wins A's 56 wins You then have the Rockies and Washing who should be picking 10, 11. The White Sox and Pirates have the 2 highest draft probabilities pretty much locked up. There is massive variability in draft slot based on just a few wins for a draft that is considered one of the best drafts in the last decade. You can range from 3 all the way to 14 based on a few wins.

Twins claimed Pereda on July 22nd. The Twins don't claim Pereda unless they are willing to give him a shot.

Gasper is being used to see if somehow his AAA numbers can translate and they can either get something useful out of him or trade him. It is clear the goal of the end of the season isn't to win games (possibly to lose games) but to find some useful players in the meantime. At this point I would say Pereda is most likely our backup catcher next year unless they sign someone.

Lewis - needs to get back to hitting the opposite field. He will continued to be pitched on the outside of the plate where he can't turn on a ball. Right now with a pull happy swing, the outside part of the plate is open for most pitchers. Lee - I would argue since the trade deadline he has gone from a -.7 War to a -.3 WAR and that has been due to some power (home runs) and much better defensive numbers. There aren't splits on the defensive side, but the increasing numbers are likely split between defensive and offensive. If he can end the season with a positive WAR that would be a pretty good turn around. Being a switch hitter, there is still quite a bit to like there. Between multiple defensive positions, and switch hitting I think the MLB level has overwhelmed him a bit. I am cautiously optimistic he is turning a corner. He hasn't been afraid in the biggest of moments which I think is more important. Having multiple game winners and yesterday hitting a grand slam. He has been pretty impactful in multiple wins this year.

It ebbs and flows. This is the best group of hitting prospects we have had since when? Keaschall, Culpepper, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez? All have been top 100 prospects either currently or in the past. All have very good to great hitting ability. Lee still has the chance to be above average. Of true prospects who are the failures recently - Miranda, Julian, Rooker, Lewis? Wallner and Larnach have been ok. Lee seems to be starting to turn it around. Yes there haven't been any stars in a while. This is likely the best group of players since 2015, the last time we were high on the Prospect rankings. The difference this time around is the depth. When you have a Mendez, Houston, Olivar, Debarge, Winokur, and Amick not far behind, and Tait, Young, Diaw, Jimenez that will all be coming up behing them. You have some players with the highest of ceilings. I still stand by that part of the reason for the sell off was to ensure we got a high draft pick in what is considered to be the best draft since 2023. If you can add another high end hitting prospect with the ceiling of a Walker Jenkins, a greatly enhances the Twins chances of finding an elite talent.

The catching stable looks much better. 1. Tait - as of now he looks like a legit 25-30 - with solid bat skills. From the little I have gleaned the defense looks adequate to solid. 2. Diaw - Athletical, Powerful and great defense. The bat has looked very solid. 3. Jimenez - Viewed as a defensive catcher, the bat, power and eye has been much better than anticipated. I was worried how he would transition to A ball, that jump is always quite large and he has handled it very well. 4. Pereda - MLB experience, solid numbers at AAA Those are 3 very different catcher profiles but all 3 look very good. The floors are likely reversed as Jimenez could likely fill the defensive backup position with just a little more improvement from the bat. The only question I have with Diaw is injuries. If I recall he was injured quite a bit in college and it seems to have continued in the minors. Tait's ceiling is sky high, but the floor is still quite low. The bat is impressive as an 18 year old, but there still needs to be consistent movement forward. I think Pereda could be solid backup catcher at the MLB level until some of the other prospects start rising through the system. All in all the catcher position is no longer a weakness in the minors and could quickly trend towards a strength. And thats without even mentioning Olivar. He still has an extremely high upside. I think he is the biggest question mark on whether he will remain a Catcher.

And yet since 2015 you have had the Royals, Texans, Atlanta, and the Nationals win. The royals or Nationals model are the most likely paths the Twins can take. Currently we are closer to the Nationals with a very strong 1-2 SP position in Lopez and Ryan. We still need to build up our core a bit on the field, but we are very close to having the prospects come up. Ultimately that is why I think they decided to do the rebuild. This version wasn't cutting it and they were starting to lose the clubhouse (Front Office, Ownership, Coaches and players all played a role). Say what you will things seem to be better in the clubhouse. Keaschall, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper, Gonzalez all look like very solid prospects. How many translate, 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5? The more that succeed the better chance we have at having a successful team in the near future.

Whether we like it or not as a small/mid market team you will have ups and downs. That this is the first time of the Twins have truly done a rebuild since the Falvey Era is pretty crazy. We have some truly talented players in the minors and Keaschall looks like a very solid piece to build around. I think the Pohlads PR has not been good at all and they have taken a major hit. I still hope for new ownership but there is no guarantee things will be better. Spending money doesn't guarantee championships. Just ask San Diego and the Mets.

Ryan is much more valuable now than he was viewed even earlier in the season. Where there was a valid argument whether he was a #1 pitcher or not, Ryan has answered those questions. Ultimately that is a good thing. Of all the things that haven't gone the Twins way this season, Ryan has done everything right.

Thats an extremely good day across the minors. Lots of solid performances from the bats today. Debarge's 20 HR season in college looks like a mirage, but he is a solid player across the board. The steals more than make up for the lack of power. I was expecting the BA to be a tad better but he has had a very solid OBP. In most years he would be a top 10 prospect in the minors and someone we are relying on to do well. Im curious how many steals he is going to end the season with. Gonzalez is starting to get more walks in AAA, hopefully he starts to get more comfortable with the bat. Winokur continues to put up good days. He is batting 280+/.340+/.450+ since July. I don't see how he doesn't get moved up to AA next year.

I would as well. I still come back that trading Varland will likely be the biggest trade we look back on and regret. You got decent value but you had a potential multi year closer or fireman akin to the way we used Rogers.

The starting pitching should be a major depth point. You have Ryan and Lopez if they keep them as a solid 1-2 punch. Ober is the question mark. If the velocity comes back he is a #3 option, if not he is a backend option. Abel continues to pitch well in AAA. SWR has pitched solidly in the MLB over 2 seasons, and Matthews shows some potential. You then still have Bradley and Festa as backup options. If SP is the hardest thing to accumulate we are sitting well on that end. LF Rodriguez/Gonzalez/Roden CF Buxton RF Wallner/Larnach (Potentially 1 of them is traded in the offseason) 3rd Lewis SS Lee/Culpepper 2nd Keashall 1st ???? (Clemens, Sabato, FA?) C Jeffers Honestly its not a bad core. Yes the hitting philosophy and some of the players approaches have not been great. Can Lee become a 1 to 2 WAR player. The fact he was a -.7 earlier in the season and currently sits at a -.3, yes I think he can. He looks solid at SS. If the bat just gets a bit better he becomes a very solid utility player and possibly someone another team want to take a chance on. If not he is a great placeholder and insurance for Culpepper. Lewis, has the potential to be great, but the hitting approach is swing as hard as he can. If you can fix him, suddenly the offense looks pretty good. Lastly the bullpen and pitching staff. With basically Ryan as our lone healthy SP other than Ober, would you be surprised to know in August the ERA of the entire staff is 3.93. That is really solid. There are pieces in there that definitely won't be part of 2026, but my guess is there will be more pieces than most anticipate. Sands and Topa as of now will be the high leverage relievers. You need 2 more solid relievers at minimum to find or add and you have the makings of a solid bullpen. We are running with 2-3 starting pitchers and 2 solid relievers and we are at 7-9 since the deadline against some pretty solid teams. All in all we are not that far away.

I stand by that Duran and Varland were the only relievers traded that are or will be elite. Jax has great stuff but struggles on a regular basis. The Varland trade is the only long term piece that really matters and that we will most likely view as a loss. Will the Twins be willing to spend some money on the bullpen or not.

Twins feasted on Paddack today. He thought they weren’t getting enough food so he gave them all the meatballs they wanted. His 3 ERA with Detroit got drastically inflated. 7-9. Better than I expected at this point, especially giving regular run to Gasper, Julien, Martin, and Roden and our work in progress bullpen.

Nick you must enjoy misery. If you can’t see better pastures I don’t know what you have been watching in the twins system. If you like Keaschall you should enjoy both Gonzalez and Culpepper. Along with Rodriguez, both of those players will either be helping the team at the start of the season or mid season. If we can have 3-4 good hitters to add to a Buxton Wallner Jeffers, Lee you have a pretty good lineup. I still think Lee is making progress. He is getting awfully close to breaking into positive territory for WAR. At this point we take what we can get. Abel looks ready to join the rotation. Roden was not the main piece of the Varland trade, that was Rojas. Roden didn’t have a great showing but he still has a chance. We are finding some pieces in the bullpen. I also think we only win 1 more game in that stretch if we kept everyone. To me it seems like the org continues to put out weaker players to ensure we maintain a good draft slot. If someone Breaks out great. We need to keep players healthy. If Ryan’s gives us 3-4 more good outings that’s a best case scenario, Ryan finally shows he can be the #1 pitcher the enter season rather than wearing down. Either as a major trade chip or for the Twins. I still can’t tell which direction the Twins are going but ultimately I think 1 of the SP gets traded.

I think we are better off moving forward with Culpepper as our SS. Correa has shown 2 years of declining performance. 1 good week doesn’t make him elite again. To me the body is slowing down. Some dollars will be used.

I think Paddacks ERA went up a bit 🤣

He moved to 3rd. I’ve always said he does better as a complementary piece. If he does well in Houston it likely says more about Correa than the Twins. In either case it worked out ok not great and he is in a better situation. The Twins have a clean set of books.

Abel and Bradley are not depth pieces. They are #2-#5 starting pitchers. Horn and Gallagher and Rojas all have looked solid. The flyer in DSL Villoria looks like he has a chance to be very good. Both the Catcher prospects are raking. I would like to see a the BA go up abbot with Tait but both are holding their own at A and A+ ball. The catching depth is immensely better. One or both will likely make the big leagues. Mendez has a near .900 OPS at AA. The prospects as whole have done very well so far. Bradley had 1 clunker and Roden on the injured list, and Outman had a rough start - but otherwise the trades have added quite a few solid prospects.

Horn was solid as well. The only interesting pitching prospect that struggled a bit was Hill. All in all a very solid day. For the most part the traded for prospects are doing very well.

6-9 A drubbing on Friday, just not enough decent pitching on Saturday. Matthew’s has talent but only went 4 innings with 4 walks. As it stands there are 11 teams within 6 wins of each other. The Twins have 7 games against the White Sox, and series against A’s, D’backs, and the Angels in the next month.