bunsen82
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Everything posted by bunsen82
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Amick has had small sample size this year, and the hit tool has been much better than advertised. He was supposed to be a power hitter so was wondering whether we just weren't going to see the power. Last night is a start. If he can combine the power and the increased hit tool, you have something. He is playing a lot more 1st base this year than I anticipated with pretty decent metrics at 3rd.
- 15 replies
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- gabriel gonzalez
- kaelen culpepper
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Twins Minor League Report (9/3): Aaron Sabato Goes Berzerk
bunsen82 replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
You don't understand the strategy of going underslot. You would underslot your pick so you can get a better prospect later in the draft. They absolutely could underslot. I think they learned with Jenkins, get the best player you can with the highest ceiling. Those are the players that can change the organizations trajectory.- 35 replies
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- aaron sabato
- quentin young
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Twins Minor League Report (9/3): Aaron Sabato Goes Berzerk
bunsen82 replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Sabato went from no shot, to long shot to he will probably get an opportunity. He keeps this up the remainder of the year. In the last 28 games he has a .287/.307/.543 slash line. He will run into the same issue as Lee. As they rise the levels they either need to increase the batting average further, or increase the walks to increase their productiveness. I would still say this is a slight mirage, but he has continued to make slight improvements throughout the years culminating in this one. Sabato is actually a first baseman though which would be good with some real power potential. Sano only had 2 years with OBP's of over .320. For a power hitter I think that is the threshold you are looking for.- 35 replies
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- aaron sabato
- quentin young
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Twins Minor League Report (9/3): Aaron Sabato Goes Berzerk
bunsen82 replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
They don't want to win in the next 25+ games . . . They may try a few Sept 15th or on. They are currently at the 2nd best odds in the lottery for next year. 20% for 1st pick - 60% of first 3 picks, and virtually guaranteed a top 5 pick if things remain the same.- 35 replies
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- aaron sabato
- quentin young
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Twins Minor League Report (9/3): Aaron Sabato Goes Berzerk
bunsen82 replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Sabato similarly to Fedko (not to the same level) may be forcing the Twins to consider to keep them in their future plans and possibly use a 40 man designation after the season. 1st base currently has Clemens and . . . . They are talking about also trying Mendez out there. Sabato has had very good contact rates for the majority of the year and the power is starting to show up. 21 home runs. This may be a flash in the pan as he has not done this well at any other level. Similar to Holland last year. Due to a lack of options, the Twins may be willing to give him a shot to start the year next year. See if a flash in the pan or true improvements.- 35 replies
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- aaron sabato
- quentin young
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You stockpile arms because pitchers will inevitable get injured. Most likely he heals over the offseason. As a middle age man whose knees hurt anytime his weight gets over 250, this may be something he has to deal with and manage in the future .
- 47 replies
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- david festa
- simeon woods richardson
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Awful blown save, but 11 hits and only 3 runs. We have to capitalize. We sit all alone with 2nd best odds.
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I would argue using some prospect capital is perfectly fine. The goal was to get a higher draft pick. They will be successful in that regard. You would have to spend money to rebuild a decent one though. Tyler Rogers (closer) 10 million, Devin Williams (6 million) scene change from New York, trade for Pete Fairbanks also 10 million. Sands, Topa (2 million option), Funderburk, Ohl or Adams, Canterino (if healthy), transition Festa in AAA to RP to be next one up. This would be $26 million plus $2 million for Topa's option. Likely too rich but it does show you can rebuild a bullpen. This is only if we keep Ryan and Pablo. Otherwise no reason to spend this much. Just rebuild it organically plus 1 to 2 cheaper free agent signings.
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I am not ready to say that after 1 good game in AAA.
- 18 replies
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- kalai rosario
- jose olivares
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I am using the MLB rankings where he is 14. There is only 3 players ahead of him that I would leave ranked ahead of Jenkins. He should be above De Vries, Walcott, Made, Chandler (or he falls off), Basallo (or falls off), Max Clark, Painter, Emerson, De Paula and Eldridge.
- 18 replies
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- kalai rosario
- jose olivares
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Rosario's only question is whether he would be subject to the rule 5 draft and at this point I don't see anyway the Twins leave him of the 40 man. Even if you think this year is a mirage, you use him as trade chip. He could get you a decent reliever. Jenkins just let him get comfortable and continue to rake. Not that it matters if he ends the season strong my guess is a top 5 prospect heading into next season. What Jimenez is doing is remarkable. He was an average bat at the international league level, gets bumped to A ball. It should be a struggle and he is now morphed into an elite eye (20BB) and an elite masher. We are starting to get beyond small sample sizes. He is ripping a home run about every 2-3 games. That swing didn't even look like he got all of it. I am curious how far he rises on the lists. I put him right around 15 - similar to Winokur.
- 18 replies
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- kalai rosario
- jose olivares
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They don't all have to be successful. I would say out of Keaschall, Lee, Gonzalez, Rodriguez, Culpepper and Rodriguez we need at least 1 elite player, 1 really good player, 2 solid mlb players and 2 busts. If you trade Ryan there will be another big piece being added and I would assume it has to be a bat. I don't think we need more MLB ready arms.
- 18 replies
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- kendry rojas
- hendry mendez
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I am the opposite. I am finding a new assortment of players to cheer for thats going to lead this organization. Yes its a transition and its been abrupt but we were losing 3 of the players at the end of the season and 4 in the next 2 years. We sped up the process a bit. We have more elite hitters in the minors than we have had in a significant amount of time. Trying Mendez at 1st sounds very interesting to me. Yes he won't have elite power for the position, but he has excellent hit mechanics. Mendez and Gonzalez are both players that will have high OBP and keep runners moving on the basepaths. In my opinion we have been 2-3 professional hitters short on the MLB level. We have the potential of adding 3-5 more shortly in Jenkins, Gonzalez, Mendez, Culpepper and Rodriguez. That is a lot of talent on the cusp of the big leagues.
- 18 replies
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- kendry rojas
- hendry mendez
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As to quality of pitching and where do we go moving forward. We have got a ton of arms, thats not the issue its sifting though all of it and seeing what rises to the top. Raya - had figured some things out in early to mid summer but has struggled again. I think there is some reliever risk or failed prospect hype - but honestly he was never that high on my lists due to lack of durability and innings. Priellip - Great stuff. Seems to be wearing out a bit in AAA logging 67 innings. Honestly pretty happy with this and would be fine if they shut him down for the year. His stuff looks good enough for the MLB. May be until 2027 until he can handle the pitching load. Culpepper - Looks like a stud since coming back. he looks ready for the jump to AAA. Morris - still not sure the stuff is good enough for the MLB level. 4 ERA for the year. Not terrible. Adams - I would switch to bullpen in the offseason Rojas - has some elite stuff - I am not sure AAA is the right level to be working on it. He is 21, overally probably 2 years away. Hill has shown great stuff this year, as did Soto. I am actually surprised how low Soto is on the ranking lists. 3 starts though and 1.38 ERA at high A. Gallagher and Horn both have decent stuff could legitimately get to the big leagues. The draft brought in 4 high powered arms. Quick, Ellwanger, Barr, and Reitz is the best quality of arms we have drafted. I would put them on similar level as Priellip, Matthews, Lewis and Culpepper (2022 draft) with possibly a little higher upside. I could see 2 arms from each of those classes being permanent pitchers on the MLB roster. You still have flyers in Mitrovich, Smith, Fang, Jones and Stevens - and a couple other arms thrown into the mix from the bottom of the draft. You never know when you will hit another Varland. Langenberg and Bragg are both looking pretty solid from the 2023 draft. Then we are still sifting through SWR, Matthews, Abel, Bradley and Festa to see who locks down 2 or 3 or more of the starting positions for next year. That is some high end talent. We just need to see it perform and be productive.
- 9 replies
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- ty langenberg
- mick abel
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Pretty easy. 1. Not tip his offspeed pitches. Currently they seem to know when throwing a fastball and when throwing an offspeed at the MLB level. 2. Needs to find a little more control. 3. The fastball in its current format is fast but seems to not have a lot of movement and is not missing a lot of bats. Would be curious if they will work on improving the swing and miss on this pitch. 4. Let the kid continue to work on his craft. 2024 AAA ERA 7.29 2025 AAA ERA 2.2 2025 MLB ERA 7.76 2026 MLB ERA ? If he can get to 4 or less ERA that would be great progress.
- 9 replies
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- ty langenberg
- mick abel
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Likely prospects in low A or international league. I would venture he is talking about Mendez, Gallagher and Horn. They are individuals who are solid players with what appears to be a capped ceiling but all with a real possibility of making the MLB. Yes they could have taken a flyer but they already have high upside players in Tait and Rojas. It felt like a nice mix. The only other trade would have been Jax for Bradley. The player who has shown up the most so far is Jimenez.
- 18 replies
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- kendry rojas
- hendry mendez
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You don't need miracles. Go look at Abel's 1st start. 9k's yes there wasn't a book on him, but he isn't far off and has shown he works hard in the offseason. Struggles in 1st taste, dominates the level the next year. We don't need domination, we need him to be confident and comfortable. Worst case you let him let it rip and throw him in the pen with 100 mph fastball. We often want immediate returns. I am fine having patience. Odds are he is a significant part of our starting rotation for the next 5 years.
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All good on my end. I thought it had been reported Ford was not in the deal. Who knows what was actually offered. So far Tait has looked solid. Abel has struggled but I don’t have worries yet. I expect him to make significant strides over the offseason. It’s been mentioned he is tipping pitches. It makes sense. We will see if he can correct it.
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I think Walker Jenkins has the potential to be a generational player for the Twins. I also don't see any reason to push him harder than they have. Jenkins is seeing the better off speed pitches in AAA. It took Gonzalez a couple weeks before he started to get comfortable. This is all part of the plan. I am firmly of the opinion in general the only way the Twins will get generational talents is through the draft. Yes we have found good players through trades (Ryan, Gray) yes we signed 1 (Correa). In general though no one is willing to trade a top end prospect or let them sign elsewhere, or that the Twins will be willing to spend the money in the future to attain one. With that being said I think the Twins have been drafting well since 2022, but they really need a few more players in Jenkins realm. That is why I am ok with them tanking for the remainder of the year. Currently odds are they end up with a top 5 pick in what should be another very deep top end draft. I am optimistic on Walker, but there are lots of paths that can still be taken. Underperformance and major injury are still 2 very real possibilities. I can't wait to see what he looks like next year. Is there a possibility he starts on MLB. Possible but not likely. Most likely to AAA and then hopefully watch him crush it at that level and then we will be in the wait and see mode to see when and if they bring him up.
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Went 2-1 against the Padres, and lost a winnable game against the White Sox. 1 win separates 4 teams from getting the 2nd-5th best odds in the draft. Twins, Atlanta and Baltimore at 62 wins, Pittsburg at 61. The other 3 teams have played 1 more game than the Twins so far. There are only 2 other teams now that could swap with the Twins now, A's and Marlins (Angels ineligible for lottery pick). Currently lotter odds of slots 2-7 is where the Twins could potential land at the end of the season. Twins have 25 games remaining.
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It’s tough being a fan. Yes Ryan and Lopez are top end pitchers and they are the toughest thing to find or acquire in baseball. The downside is unless we truly plan to spend in the offseason the bullpen and position players won’t be ready to compete til 2027 at the earliest. I have struggled with how a trade would look and how you could handle all the movie parts. I don’t see the vision currently. The value of Ryan would be massive. His next 2 years will most likely be meaningless with the Twins except for a 1st round pick if he signs elsewhere. Logically trading him makes a ton of sense.
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Abel was hurt by the error. He is struggling to strike out players. His first start his secondary pitches were on, 9 strikeouts. Only 1 strikeout was a fastball. He is not that far off but the consistency of the secondary pitches is what he needs to focus on in the offseason. For Abel who tends to improve a ton in the offseason I am fine with continuing to throw him out and see if he can figure a few things out in the remainder of the season then really tweak in the offseason. Bradley, that was quite the turnaround. Hopefully we can see more starts of this caliber to end the season.
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There is lots of moving parts and 8 starting pitching options is to much. Need to move to bullpen, trade them . . . or open mor starting pitching spots (ie. trading Lopez and/or Ryan). I am really struggling to envision how it would work trading a Ryan.
- 28 replies
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- kalai rosario
- walker jenkins
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True, but you just cut 6 RP in your scenario LOL. 4 who are currently on the team. You would have to replace those either internally, through acquisition or off season signings.
- 28 replies
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- kalai rosario
- walker jenkins
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