bunsen82

Highly dependant on his stats this year. Even still if you have assurance Jeffers wants a long term deal - which he should at age 30 its worth a gamble. You could then trade if need be. 1 year 22 million versus 3 year 50 to 60 million sounds about right.

So how the heck does debt grow from $350 million to $425 million to now $500 million? As an accountant the math just doesn't add up. Like at all. Thats saying the Twins from operations lost 40 million and then added on another 30 million of interest. With $500 million of debt how could the Twins ever expect to get around 2 Billion - its just idiocy. Now - I do think Verde will be a significant addition. Ability to help finance any remaining debt at better options. But with that being said - they will want to be fiscally responsible - so I don't see a scenario where we will be operating above budget. So where the revenue lies and budget for players will be, will be very interesting.

The only thing I would argue is Jeffers is not that far from getting the twins an extra draft pick in next years draft. As of right now now he is projected to get a 3 year $30 million to $35 million contract. If there is minimal catcher options again next year - I would not be surprised at all to see him get $50 million. So the value has to be very high in a return. You are losing a starting catcher that has the most experience especially with these pitchers. Unless you are getting a younger C back I just don't see how the math works out. We can get the value of Jeffers this year and potentially as draft comp as well.

I think it’s pretty clear they like Ferrer. 100+ fastball and good slider and a lefty. After that, has walk issues seems to pitch to contact because of lack of strikeout ability and tries to get grounders. Jerry is willing to overpay on the surface, but he does know the value of his prospects. I don’t think he trade $1 for .50 cents. In my opinion it’s probably like .75 for .65. As to Washington you are talking about an organization that made Ruiz a big part of their return in Sherzer deal, gave him $50 million contract and have whiffed. So yes they have a whole to fill but their talent eye hasn’t been great either.

That all a top 50 catcher could bring is a reliever that relies on grounders and limiting damage. His peripherals suggest he could be more. So either the mariners really really liked him, or Fords value is much much lower in MLB front offices as no one else was willing to offer a better reliever. It makes more sense now why Twins took the Phillies offer.

I think this shows you how the rest of MLB valued Ford

Let’s be clear most of the questions won’t be answered at winter meetings. You are correct the the biggest answer this weekend will be the draft slot. This has the biggest implications on the team for the long run. 2. Rule 5 draft, we pick 4th. In my opinion there are 4-5 arms, 2 1st Base options and 2 outfielders ( 1 with great speed defense, the other with elite bat speed). For me it has to be an arm or a first baseman. If we go the defensive center fielder, I think it would raise more questions.

There was rumors at the deadline when Varland was traded, they possibly considered him as a SP. I think they really found him valuable in the bullpen.

To go on my previous post more information has come out. They have stated he his a better player than most of his contemporaries. So this is looking like a value dive, similarly to Sano, ect with age concerns.

1. They are venture capitalists - they see the future value being higher than current amount paid. 2. They may get a portion of revenues income separate from ownership amount or percentage. 3. The value of the Twins may go up more with the reduction of the debt. Also the value of the Twins will likey go up after the next CBA. This is a way to increase value to likely become owners or majority owners in the future.

To be fair we jumped up from #13 to get the #5 pick in 2023. Luck wise - we have much higher odds than normal. 22.18% . Guaranteed a top 8 pick. Now we jumped several teams by record to get the current odds. Although that wasn't luck -that was just losing a lot after the trade deadline. This pays off if we get a top 3 pick.

You didn’t offend but stating tanking is outlawed is just not correct. MLB tried to limit it through the lottery system. However when 2 of the worst teams are ineligible for a lottery pick and the Twins odds are significantly better, with a loaded draft class this is one of the few years where tanking might make mathematical sense.

We are dealing with horseshoes and grenades at this point. You have to think logically why beyond trading the rentals, why did we trade every effective reliever after that other than Sands? 1. They think relievers are replaceable. They have stated as much and has been Falvey's main operating point, he puts minimal value into the bullpen. 2. The easiest way to cause a team to lose is eliminate the bullpen. Even with a good pitching effort or hitting effort they can blow the lead. Throw in playing Gasper, Outman on a regular basis and shows the intent was not to win 3. They got fairly good value for those relievers 4. You can rebuild a pen fairly cheaply. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47016601/twins-acquire-reliever-eric-orze-trade-rays If you can move your draft pick for 10-12 to the 1-4 range that may have 4-5 high level prospects, the trade level alone is a massive upgrade. You may be going from a player who has a trade value of 8-10 as your 1st pick to a 25-30 value. You have to take the tanking consideration into the philosophy of the trade. You add in Pohlad and Falvey saying you have to take a road and know what you are doing is for the best long term benefit and you have to do it even if the fans disagree. “At some point you gotta look at yourself and be like, ‘You know what? We’ve gotta try something different.’ And not everybody’s going to like it," Pohlad shared. "You’ve gotta own it. Fans are going to be upset. They’re going to say what they’re going to say. And you gotta keep moving forward, and trust that you’re making the right decision.” If tanking wasn't allowed - Houston, Baltimore, A's and Pirates would all be contracted.

Think its a moot point if we are trying to lower the salary of the club to pocket money to pay off debt. If we are willing to trade Buxton and Lopez and possibly Ryan, there is no reason to sign Hoskins. We will run with Clemens and see what we can get out of him. You then have Mendez and Amick that we seem to be giving them a trial to see if they can be options down the road.

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/twins-taj-bradley-makes-wild-revelation-about-studying-habits-before-pitching He had never done scouting reports. If you want to go deep down the rabbit hole, here is what you will find, he never really tried to improve his stuff, he tried to do the same thing over and over and over. This past year the Rays said they were going to change it up for him, and he struggled immensely. Granted what the Rays wanted to do was stupid in my opinion. They took away what had been his most reliable consistent pitch and then he seemed to lose all confidence. From going through various reports the biggest issues with Bradley and Tampa Bay was putting the work in to get better and they threw in the towel on him. It doesn't mean Taj doesn't have potential. But you have a young pitcher who has struggled and has never put in the prework of going over scouting reports? That is what I am talking about. He had always been able to get by with just his physical ability. At this level it is as much mental as it is physical. So are you going to throw a hitter who can hit fastballs but not offspeed- fastballs or offspeed. Maybe he has totally relied on catchers to do the homework. But he should know players tendencies, if they like to pull the ball, if they struggle with inside or outside pitches. This is like the bare minimum to be a big league pitcher in my opinion. Add in when he really did try to revamp his stuff he effectively fell apart this year. Now I do think the Twins have a good plan with him. I am glad he is willing to do the homework. Like I said before I hope he connects with a player like SWR. SWR has the mental part of the game down. He can also show how he has tried to change his arm angle for more velocity vs losing a little bit of vertical drop. Go read some articles on SWR, his intelligence level about pitching is off the charts good. Very similar to a Sonny Gray. Honestly wish his stuff was just a little better, you would have a top tier SP in my opinion.

Do you think we got an ace in Rojas, because Roden effectively has 1 more season to learn how to hit at the mlb level or he will be considered a AAAA player and his value of 10-12 effectively evaporates. Rojas has talent but can he harness it. Yes we see things differently as I think Jax is a headcase in my opinion. Yes his stuff is amazing but he has never been able to put it all together. To me it sounds like Bradley put zero effort into being a major leaguer with Tampa Bay. In my opinion he should become best friends with SWR. Learn to maximize the stuff you have and put in the hours of homework to become a really good pitcher. If he puts the effort in I think he is a #2 pitcher.

If we still have the debt on the books and you are going to tank the salary to pay the debt off then Lopez is gone, Buxton could be gone and then there is no reason to keep Ryan. I hope this is really poorly informed info.

Ok Bader LOL. Yes he was solid. Varland is really questionable how Toronto wants to use him. Will they move him back to a starter. Or will they use him as a high leverage reliever. My concern on the varland trade is right now I don't think Rojas or Roden will pay off. Maybe they prove me wrong, but based on the way Varland was used in the playoffs - he can be a high leverage, high use arm. That has a lot of value in my book especially when you have 5 years of control. Lets say its 5 years of being a closer, what do we need from Roden or Rojas to equal that.

https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/taj-bradley-s-nine-strikeouts-x4204 If we get a lot more performances from these 2 like their last 2 starts - this deadline will be considered a win.

You have to look at it more than just the prospects received. Its partially the money saved, but the real "wild card" here is the improved draft capital. At the all star break we had the 13th or 14th best record. We now have high odds of getting a top 5 pick and 60% odds of a top 3 pick. I still stand by trading all the relievers was to tank for better draft picks in a really good draft. This has to be part of the equation. Pitching - Abel, Bradley, Rojas, Gallagher (assets received currently in top 30 prospects) Hitters - Tait, Mendez, Jimenez, Roden We win on the Castro, Bader, Paddack and Coloumbe trades. We traded less than 1/2 a season of control for Horn, Gallagher, Armstrong, Jimenez and Mendez. I have high expectations for both Mendez and Jimenez. Stewart for Outman. Trading an injured pitcher for an outfielder than can't hit. Likely not a needle mover in either direction just looks really bad. Jax for Bradley. I do this trade everyday of the week. Trade 2 1/2 years of a volatile reliever for 3 1/2 of a younger highly volatile SP. Both with question marks on attitude and willing to work in a team environment. Bradley say what you will showed he was willing to be a professional with the Twins and try new things and his last start he looked really really good. Varland for Roden and Rojas - I just don't know. Varland ERA was high - but he was the Blue Jays most used arm out of the bullpen in the playoffs. On paper Roden and Rojas is an overpay for Varland, to me even taking the emotional arguments out of it, I think we lose this trade. I think Varland is either the setup man or closer for the Blue Jays for a long time. Roden either needs to become an above average outfielder or Rojas needs to become a closer or high end pitcher. Duran for Abel and Tait. I do this trade every day. I think Abel will be a very very good pitcher for us. His last start he had complete command of his arsenal. I think he was tipping pitches unintentionally. If you can control that he should be good in my opinion. Of the pitchers I think he is the best one of the group and will be a solid #2 for us down the road. Tait is full of potential but is still potential at this point. Trading Correa was just a salary dump. Honestly I think that trade is just fine. Unless you think we could win the WS this year or next year - that is the only real valuation where we lose on these trade deals. We appeared to be a broken team at the end of the season and the only 2 players who really performed for their teams were Duran and Varland.

No it actually means a trade is possible - before Buxton was an absolute no. He wanted to stay a Twin. Now that he is considering it is similar to Correa this summer. Once you think on it and say yes, the probability goes up immensely. Then it only matters if someone is willing to meet the value chart per se.

For me a breakout - means someone who is either ranked moderately and blows up ala a Miranda, or a lower level player that continues to move up the rankings due to good performances like Luis Arraez. For me here is what I am looking at: 13. Winokur: He is a potential 5 tool player. If the hit tool continues to improve he could be viewed as a top 5 prospect. I anticipate him hitting better and potentially flashing more regularly like he did in August (Quinten Young is similar but I take Winokur over Young). 15. Soto - Soto prior to the injury was viewed as one of our top arms. He has elite velocity and some good secondary pitches. prior to injury he had a 1.38 ERA at A+. 16. Amick - he struggled in fall ball - but he had a .310/.418/.455 slash line at high A ball. His contact was much improved from expectations - the power wasn't quite there from prior years. His defense was also better than expected - allowing him to stay at 3rd if need be of move to 1st. If he can maintain the average and increase the power potentially he will rocket up the boards. 21. Diaw - other than injuries holding him back he looked like a legit C prospect. If he can stay healthy and maintain the numbers he is another one that could rocket up the boards. 25. Mendez - how he is rated this low is mind boggling. He is a more powerful Arraez. If there is any nitpick is he hits too many groundballs. He has been improving this and if he can continue to hit more line drives or fly balls that get out of the ballpark he becomes a major part of the offense. For the bat only, I think he is in the territory of Gonzalez and Jenkins, so I think he is well underrated. Like Arreaz defense may be the only thing holding him back. Like Amick they are wanting to try him some at 1st. 27. Jimenez - he was a defensive catcher coming over that suddenly started hitting bombs. .269/.431.551 slash line at A ball after coming up from the international leagues. Currently only 20 if he replicates these numbers at all or does them at high A, he will also rocket up the boards. I am going to lump Quick (who is already rated high) - Ellwanger, Barr, Reitz. One of these pitchers is going to look like a legit MLB arm if not multiple. The all have legit stuff, the majority of the questions have been control so far. Next year will be very interesting for how the prospects performs. Top to bottom - it could be one the deepest the minor league systems have been in my memory.

This isn't casually being announced, its Passan and who knows how good the sources are. Is it a team that wants to trade for him. Honestly, if someone wants to pay top dollar for Buxton I take that trade if Buxton is waiving his no trade clause. Then you have the issue if he actually wants to be traded. This is the most value Buxton has had since early in his career. Roster construction is going to be an absolute mess. Do we truly burn it all down? Pablo, Ryan, and Buxton - trade them all. I thought they wanted to compete. You trade those players you are throwing in the towel.

The one reliever I wanted just came off the market. Spotrac had Devin Williams at a 1 yr 7 million contract - yeah he signed for 3 yrs $51 million. No wondered I liked him at those prices LOL. I wanted him for the closer role, the Mets signed him as the closer/set up dependent on whether they can resign Diaz.

He has an advantage of he has grown up with the ABS. It sounds like he has an elite eye so - if he can get those extra balls - he could maintain his BB average which has always been a concern. He will always have a high BABIP as he hits the ball hard. He swings hard on every pitch which is why he misses on a lot of swings and strikes out a lot. If he can increase his contact rate and decrease his strikeout rate, you have something pretty special.