bunsen82

Ryan, Jeffers, Jax, Varland, Ober, Duran would disagree. Please don't make hyperbole takes that have no basis in reality. Even still I am fine with moving on from Baldelli. Case in point though look at Popkins. Everyone railed on him. I do think we need a mix of power and hit tool. The difference is there is better hitters in Toronto than the Twins right now.

If you have read my previous write ups on Ober, Ober in his current form is a back of the rotation arm. He has declining health and velocity. Not to say he can't be a leader, but Lopez and/or Ryan are #1/high end #2 arms that can lead a staff. Lets say we do get hot next year. If you want any chance in the playoffs, you likely need 1 of them.

There is no advantage to tank for multiple years beyond 2 like in the past. So yes I do agree with you I think they plan to be competitive in 2027. How competitive in 2026 who knows. There are 4 players to shed salary with 1. Lopez, Jeffers, Larnach and then Ryan. That is effectively it. I see minimal possibility of Jeffers getting traded. That leaves Larnach who I think is a given and then Lopez and Ryan. W will see if they find suitable trade partners.

You need to win with contact, good eyes walks, and solid power. Wallners OBP is .320. If Wallner is the 2023 and 2024 version that is a great Wallner .250 BA/.370 OBP/500+ OPS. I don't know why he has regressed so much this year. I still think he is in the plans for next year and has more upside than Larnach. Who said I ignored Power, Culpepper and Jenkins are both very good power hitters, Culpepper especially for his position. They are different players and providing much more than primarily Power which Wallner relies on. If the Power or contact goes away you are left with a Gallo.

Wallner's prospect review since draft day is pretty spot on. Power hitting outfield with questionable hit tool. Slow runner with a great arm. hit 45 Power 60 run 40 Arm 65 That is pretty much what we have gotten out of Wallner. He has a ton of swing and miss 33% this year. Go look at his 2022 stats in AA and AAA - 170 strikeouts in 571 at bats -29%. Jenkins strikout rate this year - 50K in 217 at bats to go with 41 BB - 23% and 4 year younger. Hit 60 Power 60. Culpepper - 82 SO in 409 at bats - 20% strikeout rate. He striking out 2 times to every walk. Hit 55 Power 45 Gonzalez - Hit 55 Power 40. 61 K to 406 at bats - 15%. Yes all 3 of these are much better contact hitters that Wallner ever was. Other than Jenkins they don't have the power potential of Wallner. Even still, this offense needs more hitters, not a few more home runs.

Keaschall is 1.1 WAR in 90 at bats. Lee is .7 War since July. Buxton is Buxton. Lewis is a tough one. He still has the talent to be a top 50 to 75 mlb player. Jeffers we only have for 2026. Rodriguez or Roden could give you positive play in left field. Wallner - can be a 2.0 WAR hitter if making contact. My personal opinion is we have too many all or nothing hitters. I would be fine getting rid of Wallner and then putting in a contact hitter like Gonzalez if he is ready. Gonzalez, Jenkins and Culpepper are much better hitters than Larnach, Wallner, Martin and this version of Lewis. This team does well when you can string things together. You need 2-3 more contact hitter to keep things going.

I think Outman is your Buxton insurance. Defensive/Pinch runner Your outfield is Roden/Jenkins, Buxton, Wallner - Roden becomes 4th outfielder when Jenkins comes up Infield is Lewis, Lee, Keashall, ???? Catcher - Jeffers/Pereda Right now only 1st base is really a question mark. We have found decent to above average production the last 2 years there. Larnach is most likely traded. Lewis gets next season to figure it out, if not Lee moves over to 3rd. From what I see we need 1 utility player and a 1st baseman. If there is underperformance in the outfield, you have Fedko/Rodriguez and Gonzalez as options.

If Ryan had to be moved he would have been moved at the deadline. This is the issue most don't want to discuss - why was he kept? I still think its a high probability 1 or both is moved, but you need at least 1-2 veterans in any pitching group. 1 of them will be the leader for 2026. I still think its Lopez due to the lack of value. If you think its money related then Pablo will be the 1 traded. If this is truly a tear down and 2026 is not a focus, then yes you trade both and you don't care. I still think this is a .500 club next year or around there.

Say what you will, since 2017 this front office has always tried to put a good product on the field. This team will not lose a 100 games next year. What has really changed. Right now we are putting up non competitive at bats or pitching performance by players who are AAAA players trying to see if they can be MLB players. You can do this with 1-2 players and be competitive. When you are doing it with 6-8 you will lose a lot of games. Gasper, Julien and Martin will most likely not be on the team next year. We still have some solid players in Keaschall, Lee, Buxton, Jeffers and Lewis. Say what you will, we aren't that far off on the position side.

Bright spot is a tad strong LOL. However, right now I think he is fully in the plans for next year. His contact rates are good, he has good power and in the past has shown good defensive skill. Yes his time up with the Twins wasn't great, but he was actually improving and starting to provide a positive impact. Giving up on a player on their first season of MLB experience is beyond stupid. This fan base, many of the writers here are beyond fickle. In this case you are one of the few showing excessive optimism - which I tend to agree with. I still think Falvey is right for the position. He is doing the job in the constraints of ownership. As to Baldelli, I am ready for a change. I am all for analytics. However the pinch hitting of our better hitters for a worse hitter even if it is to get a lefty or righty advantage is beyond stupid and hasn't paid off. Its clear we don't teach bunting. If we are going to be more a small ball team we have to be able to do the fundamentals. Bunting is 1 of those. As to Roden, I expect an above average outfielder as soon as next year. The only caveat is the gap between AAA and the MLB level is very evident right now. Both Roden and Abel have dominated AAA. They have met much stiffer competition up here. They could both wash out, but they still have the ability and skill to get better, they just need to continue to improve.

If you are trying to trade him in the offseason you would be trying to show he is healthy. Right wrong or indifferent I think this is a case of Pablo feels healthy and wants to pitch again. I don't see any scenario where we trade Pablo and Ryan in the offseason. You are keeping 1 to lead the young guys. Now getting him healthy increases you options but even still Pablo would not be valued anywhere near what Ryan would get you right now. I have an argument going on in my own head. I really think the front office wants to put a good product on the field next year. That means they have Ryan and Pablo. The issue is that leaves 2 starting spots for about 5-6 arms (Matthews, SWR, Abel, Bradley, Festa, maybe Ohl). That tends to portend a trade. However, a trade would likely include a high end pitching prospect in return so likely not creating another hole unless the only return is hitters. I just don't quite see how they plan to manage this roster.

I think you will see a solid game by the Twins today. Ryan will pitch well, the bats have been ok, they have been too spread out. If they can get a lead early I think Ryan and the bullpen can get us the win.

Has the prospects that have come up struggled yes. Up to this point the only one that has succeeded elsewhere is Rooker but he struggled at other stops as well. We have found players to be replacement players in the field, we have struggled to find that star. Keaschall looks really good right now, and a key piece to build around. Lee's approach has been so much better lately. A 10-12 pitch at bat yesterday in the 1st with a hard contact but got an out but moved the runner. Those 2 look like something to build around (and tend to go against your thesis). The Twins have developed pitching very well, its just some of it came from outside the organization. You don't have a Varland, Jax, or Duran if you can't develop players. Or a Joe Ryan for that matter. Jeffers has been an 8 WAR over his career but as a whole the batters have struggled. The talent coming looks better than the previous group of prospects. Jenkins and Culpupper both have very good contact rates, power and good defensive skills. We are getting into the more 5 tool prospects that have a much higher probability of succeeding. You then have another group with good skills but slightly flawed in Rodriguez and Gonzalez. Can a Fedko find lightening in a bottle and be a lower prospect that succeeds - it is very possible. The farm system is strong. We have some players and pitchers to build around. If they do trade Ryan it will be for a haul. If you start going to analysts now vs day of the sale, they will tell you the Twins got very good returns. Yes a few have struggled with their 1st taste with the big league team. Other than the Stewart trade, which I can still make an argument for, everything else looked like very good returns and in some aspects selling high. Jax, Varland, and Coloumbe have had some rough outings. Castro and Bader have both looked like back up players. 3 players have done well. Duran, Correa, and Ty France. Go look at Abel's stats. Moves up a level and struggles. Comes back the next year and dominates. I am ok with giving him more reps this month. Getting him used to this level, seeing if he can increase his strikeout ability. Bradley's outing yesterday showed what he has become, struggled with command early, settled down for 3 shutdown innings afterward. He doesn't have a lot of confidence or feel for the ball right now. The split finger looked good. If it becomes a weapon then teams can't load up on the fastball. Personally I think the new window starts in 2027. We have a pretty deep Starting pitching for now, we have some decent hitting prospects coming up, we need to rebuild the bullpen.

Washington is the other team to watch. If the Twins get to the 3rd spot it will be the highest chance in the lottery. yeas Twins lost today. 2 rough innings for Bradley before he settled in.

Holy moly. So the Twins begin using the season as a spring training to work on developing things with Abel and Taj and we want to go off the deep end. Taj had no control to start the game and still if a couple of the weaker hits become outs it’s a different game or getting the double play. My concern was 10-12 pitches that were way off. It’s like he had no feel. Abel I think will settle in. Taj is a pretty big project, with some good upside, this is what we were expecting. Jax has been awful for the Rays.

You are basing this off of players in the 80’s. Swanson and Benintendi are the last in MLB that I am aware of that played minor leagues then skipped AAA. You then have Crochet and Ryan Johnson who debuted at MLB level. This is a different era. No I don’t think it’ll make a difference. I’m still thinking mid season. But at least now if he does well I could understand if they started to plan for him to start with the big league team.

Well my point is semi moot as they have moved Jenkins to AAA. You asked who they will play in the outfield. Currently Larnach and Wallner. Jenkins wouldn’t be called up to be a 4th outfielder like Kiersey or Outman. The guess is Larnach will no longer be on the team. Roden, Rodriguez, Gonzalez and now Jenkins are all possibilities to fill that hole. The odds for Jenkins has gone up especially if he does well in AAA.

How many skipped AAA which many seem to be suggesting here. Yes I am more positive but I understand the concerns.

Only 1 stated that. Jax. Correa said no where but Houston.

Varland yes. He seems to be struggling a bit. Jax may be realizing his issues are on him. Bader was doing much better with us which for free agency would have been better for him, but I am sure he is enjoying being in Philly. Brock is hurt. So right now only Duran, Correa and France are the 3 performing much better and settling into their new teams.

You do realize the number of players who have made the jump is extremely small. The gap between AA and MLB is bigger than in the past. You do know who Jenkins agent is right? He never signs extensions and wants to get to free agency and the Twins likely won’t be able to compete if he is as good as we think he can be.

Right now you have a player who hasn’t played AAA. You aren’t thinking logically on a player that will be 21 next year that letting him having a majority of a season at AAA or until shown ready is likely in his best interest. No one is talking about holding him til he is 26. The best shot at getting him rookie of the year is likely 2027 and you would extend control an extra year for a player that won’t sign an extension with the Twins most likely.

It’s the fact they are ready for the spot and as of now it would be a massive jump. I don’t see them skipping AAA for Jenkins. My point is you have other players also eligible for the rookie of the year pick most likely that have spent more time at AAA.

The issue for Jenkins is there are other outfielder prospects ahead of him right now in Rodriguez and Gonzalez. Rodriguez as of now is on top 100 lists so he is also eligible. Gonzales has been on the fringes. He would need need to have a really good end of the year in AAA. Keaschall will have too many at bats. I don’t think Culpupper will make a quick jump at the start but you have potential that he along with Jenkins and 1 of Gonzalez or Rodriguez could be up with the team. That is a lot of young players all at once that have the possibility of getting rookie of the year.

We are in a better situation than the white Sox. The question is, do they rebuild in the offseason or is it a full tear down.