Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bunsen82

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,781

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bunsen82

  1. bunsen82
    If small market team can’t draft in lottery more than 2 years. If a is large market can’t be in lottery in back to back years. Trying to stop perpetual tanking.
  2. bunsen82
    Washington and Colorado aren’t lottery eligible. White Sox 25% chance 1st pick. Twins 15%.
  3. bunsen82
    Lewis 4 WAR, Larnach 3 WAR Wallner 5 WAR but yes I understand the frustration. Had 1 or 2 of those become stars most likely we don't hear as much commotion. But they haven't. So we will see if they can show progress with Lee and Keaschall.
  4. bunsen82
    You have him and Lee at a .7 WAR in the last month in a half. 8 WAR for Jeffers. Wallner 5 WAR and Lewis 4 WAR. Kepler 20 WAR (17.5 while they were in charge) Polanco 20 WAR (16.5 while Falvey and Baldelli in charge). No they have been decent at developing talent, but struggled a bit with the bats in the last few years. We have higher prospects with a better drafting philosophy post 2021.
  5. bunsen82
    I am ok with what you are suggesting chpettit. We will see if they plan to bring up at the start of the season, otherwise we will be on Walker Jenkins watch the rest of the year. If they do bring him up for a cup of coffee at the end of the season it does increase the probabilities they are willing to bring him up at the start of the season.
  6. bunsen82
    It all comes down to can Lewis learn to be effective again with an outside pitch. Until he can regularly cause damage, no one is coming inside unless they miss their spot.
  7. bunsen82
    UNH at $307. Still a long way to go but slowly regaining trust in the market I have taken a significant stab at 2 SOL treasury companies. DFDV and UPXI. Have an average price slightly above $16 on DFDV and $7.30 on UPXI. Let me tell you they are volatile and there is a ton of short interest. DFDV was at $20 as of Friday and it looks like they severely diluted the shareholders limiting long term upside. Even still it looks like SOL is in the early stages of beginning a full out bull run. It happens every 4 years and it is to occur this fall. The chart looks right, bitcoin dominance is declining and Ethereum has taking the lead for crypto currencies. I would expect Sol to not be far behind and then take the lead come October before handing off to the smaller coins and then lastly the meme coins. So what am I looking at, being someone who had been in MSTR at $220 (before the 10 for 1 splits) - due to calls only got 10 bagger instead of a 20 bagger this has the possibility of being even more explosive in a short period. The median price Sol is expected to get to is $750. Both companies are trying to increase their sol per a share. My concern is the deals have not been nearly as accretive as what MSTR was able to do. Is it because we are not in the moon phase of crypto's I don't know. Effectively I was thinking you had the potential at 10X if everything went right on these 2 stocks in the next 5-6 months. I do think based on this most recent deal I will have to back off my expectations a bit. However 5-7 X is still a very real possibility. Is is risky - absolutely. Anything I get into is always risk/reward. The reward greatly out weighs the risk in my opinion. This is about as speculative as it comes, but I have always been concerned with the value of the $. Not only does the US have major debt issue, we are starting to put more and more risk on the $ by creating questions of the Fed independence. Now could this create almost a great depression type situation where all risky assets get crushed. Absolutely. To me though at this time the market still is pretty confident. My horizon is about October to November (January) at the latest. Just thought would throw it out.
  8. bunsen82
    Today I have had significant issues of trying to open an article or type a message and will get redirected to an advertisement. I just got redirected to Navy Federal Credit Union. Not sure if this is a glitch or what is occurring.
  9. bunsen82
    Who could be players that they think well outplay their contracts. Remember we did something similar with Polanco and Kepler - they don't have to be big players or big contracts. This is really on how confident the org is on a prospect. Right now there is a ton of variability on an Abel. If you felt confident he will succeed you could save money and gain a year or two on player like him. Matthews would be in the same category. You are looking at 5-6 years 60-70 million. Similar to a Kristian Campbell. You are willing to increase salary now for future savings - have a better roster and extend your window an extra year or two. Keaschall - I think would be asking for more than the Twins would be willing to offer. He does play a position the Twins have paid for in the past. Culpepper or Gonzalez are the only 2 other players who may be willing to sign an extension now - that have less injury risk like a Rodriguez.
  10. bunsen82
    Unless you get a premium prospect for Jeffers I think you keep him for the season, hope he goes back to 2-3 WAR player and could be eligible for a comp pick. Odds are around 25% but it’s possible. Lewis has 1 more full year at 3rd. Beyond Keaschall at 2nd and Buxton at Center there is a lot of uncertainty. I don’t think that’s bad. It opens an opportunity for someone like Fedko. Jenkins will most likely be in play. Culpepper could be ready and Gonzalez and ERod will have something to say about it as well.
  11. bunsen82
    Your odds would different than mine. Jenkins, Keaschall 75%+ Culpepper, Gonzalez E-Rod between 50-75% You have a host of other players that would be in the 25-50% range Winokur, Tait, Houston, Jimenez, Amick, Debarge Young, Mendez Debarge Y we are going to have some prospects hit.
  12. bunsen82
    What if he continues, and Lee continues to improve, then we see what Jenkins Culpepper Rodriguez and Gonzalez can do?
  13. bunsen82
    He had 2-3 great outings after the deadline. Seems you are having a recency bias.
  14. bunsen82
    Keaschall doesn’t count?
  15. bunsen82
    Me and you view it differently. That’s ok. I think they should develop and take advantage of draft opportunities. It’s not an either or proposition. The discussion of development at the MLB level is valid. Go look at the 2023 draft though and tell me if the odds were better than say 21 or 22. I think drafting top 5 is much more valuable than drafting 13-15 which is just a few wins away. You have also ignored that I said my argument is null since they brought him up. My preference for further seasoning doesn’t matter much.
  16. bunsen82
    Well if he is hitting .150/.240/.350 it would be pretty apparent he is not quite ready. So yes in general for the type of player that Jenkins is .280/.330+/.400+ is likely what you would be looking for in AAA. Also that he is continuing to have solid plate appearances. He will be seeing a higher amount of off speed pitches and better quality. Its the secondary pitches that improve at each level past AA. Your issue is they are not as predictive as the past due to a much larger talent gap between AAA and MLB level. Which is why you can have a Roden and Abel dominate AAA and struggle at MLB. There is a significant improvement which requires on the pitching side, better control and if the MLB pitchers find a hole in your swing they will pound it. Go watch Lewis yesterday. Every single pitch thrown to the outside corner. This isn't rocket science. Until Lewis begins to go the other way he won't see any more pitches inside that he can crush.
  17. bunsen82
    1 you call him up when he has shown at least the ability to handle AAA pitching. The second is I don't expect a lockout. They may balk and threaten but ultimately the 2 will come to the table. Both sides lose more when they lockout, so it shouldn't be a part of the math.
  18. bunsen82
    NM
  19. bunsen82
    As to why I utilize at bats - I always have. Don't know why. I also don't think its smart to bring Jenkins up in April or May - give him 1/2 a season at AAA and make sure he is ready. If he comes up in July the odds of him getting rookie of the year are beyond small. The draft isn't as volatile in 2026 for a couple of reasons. 2 of the top 4 teams, are ineligible for a top 9 pick. Colorado and Washington. Meaning the % are much much higher than normal years. The White Sox currently have 25% chance at the 1st pick and something like a a 70% chance at a top 3 pick. Currently they are around 50%. If Pittsburg passes them they jump to 20% and like 60%. If Pittsburg and Washington pass them they will go up to like 22.5 % and 65%. The other is there is expected to be 3-5 or more really good prospects in the 2026 draft. It is a much deeper draft, similar to the 2023 draft. You could end up with a #4 or #5 pick like the Twins did and get a Walker Jenkins caliber player. Increasing your odds on extremely highly talented prospects is the best way to find stars for the MLB team period. Those 2 things are drastically changing the calculations on tanking and making apparent at least to me that this is a strategy the front office is taking.
  20. bunsen82
    Yes lets just forget Ryan.
  21. bunsen82
    My argument is multi faceted. If you have an 3 year college player and you are in the Angels org they are more willing to throw you to the wolves. Angels have had 3 players, Neto Shanuel and Ryan Johnson. (4 if you include Christian Walker) I look at at bats not plate appearances. So apples to apples on what I utilized there is some variation. Look the premise was to throw Jenkins up basically for 2 reasons - 1 was draft comp - 2ndly to basically give the fans something to cheer for. Ive said all along if the Twins think he is ready fine. No offense the Twins obviously thought it was prudent to move him to AAA and not just jack him up to MLB level. Maybe they will decide to give him a few games at the end of the season. Maybe they do start him at the MLB level. However it is not a mandated thing that they do. If they do start him before mid April that would mean his free agency would be after 2031. If he joins the roster after that it is 2032. If you don't understand teams in getting that extra year I don't know what to say. As noted in the article though if he is ready and he does get rookie of the year he gets an extra draft pick for the organization. It all comes down to whether he is ready, and neither me or you or any other poster on here is making that decision. The 2027 lockout is not having any affect on how they deal with their minor leaguers. The Twins are getting their butts kicked because we are throwing 2 legitimate starter pitchers, a bullpen than has been completely traded, and playing 3-4 AAAA players in the field on a regular basis seeing if they have any value for 2026 and moving forward but ultimately to lose games for a better draft pick in the 2026 draft. Even still they were 7-7 at one point after the trade deadline. They just fell apart last week. They are tanking whether individuals want to admit it or not. I accepted the Twins were tanking long ago and posted as much.
  22. bunsen82
    I am fully of the opinion the Twins can compete if they want to. Are they willing to use some prospect capital to do so? Are they willing to spend some money. You can legitimately spend $15 million on 2 bullpen arms, and trade 1 top 8-15 prospect, and have a pretty strong bullpen. The bullpen hasn't been the issue since the trade deadline. Its been the bats and starting pitching primarily. 1st base - Would we be willing to do a 1 year contract with Santana again? They have Manzardo. $7 to $8 million if his market is weak. Or are we willing to move Wallner to 1st. Or give Sabato a chance. Or are we willing to trade for a 1st baseman. This is the biggest question mark moving forward. Beyond that you have a lot of players where things could definitely improve next year, especially with a couple more quality hitters in the lineup. The question is are we going to hoard the prospects or utilize the capital to re-tool and rebuild. I could see a situation where we are both buyers and sellers. Trading a Ryan away, but then getting more players with a 4-5 year window.
  23. bunsen82
    Neto played A+, AA and AAA and debutted in 2023. He was also 22 years old. (angels) Schanuel yes skipped AAA. But also 21 (angels) Chourio - Had been in the minor league system for 4 years before debuted yes he was young. 1080 minor league at bats. Chourio had also already signed an extension through 2031 with 2 option years. There was no games to be played with service time. Merrill - Yes skipped AAA but again had been in the minor league system for 3 years. 750 minor league at bats. So yes - with the best of best players you are taking a college player and advancing them quickly. You have an organizational philosophy of pushing them hard - Angels account for 3 of the cases (they also have a minor league and major league system that is devoid of talent). Or high school draft picks that have been in the system for around 3 years and at 750 to 1000 minor league at bats. Walker Jenkins is just at 600 at bats. So yes can it happen yes. It is extremely rare. There are either certain organization more willing to do it. In this case the Twins have already moved him up. If you read my post later I already said my point was null. The argument was bringing up 6-7 players from the 80's just from the Twins when it was a much more prevalent situation than it is now.
  24. bunsen82
    We had 2 more years of running with the core. So yes I can see why they decided to sell, especially the bullpen which is the most volatile group. Yes we have some maybes, but they have more pedigree and ability than most of the players we have tried other than Lewis. I understand the frustration I am there also. I just think the turnaround will be quicker that most think and that this will be more of a retool than a rebuild. I could be wrong.
  25. bunsen82
    I would be interested in buying low on Rutschman. Likely need a 3 way trade. We are both rebuilding teams, they don't want a Lopez, Larnach ect.
×
×
  • Create New...