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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    How low is this bar? Is it actually like a closet rod rolling on the ground? Paddack earned a DFA/release last year, but his contract prevented it.
  2. bean5302
    International politics matters when the US is openly hostile with things like long standing economic and political sanctions on the proposed venue country. There's a difference between the view of the United States government diplomacy and businesses which operate in the United States.
  3. bean5302
    I get the feeling the Pohlads haven't come to terms with how badly they've damaged their reputations with the fans. Every few days I get an email from my former season ticket rep. I didn't see an "unsubscribe" link in the email so now I just delete them without opening them. If the Pohlads new plan is related to sellers remorse, they're going to find it a very tough situation. Not sure why people think Baltimore is worth more? Baltimore has an poor market area competing directly (and recently losing) revenue to the Nationals who are just down the road. Baltimore is the 28th largest media market with MSP being #15 (75% larger) with Minneapolis having a 20% larger median household income with average home prices being 70% higher in MSP. Baltimore has a smaller market, lower population, lower income, and lower land value, and there are other major sports in the area. Plus, the Capitals and Wizards are a 45 minute drive away. Anyway, I'm convinced the Pohlad family screwed this deal up with the Ishbia's and the robust market interest had the Ishbia's way out in front of the bidding. I had speculated Glen Taylor came into the bidding after losing the Wolves and shook things up, but that would seem to be a less likely scenario than the Pohlad family just tripping all over themselves with ridiculous demands and driving the Ishbia's off.
  4. bean5302
    Venezuela and Cuba are non-starters. With the political tension between the United States and those countries, it's not happening. The Dominican Republic & Puerto Rico really don't have stadiums/facilities fit for a regular season MLB game. Costa Rica 3hrs or Peru 6hrs would be better destinations due to their location, wealth, stability, and with the facilities appropriate to host an MLB game. Brazil could host one, but at 8-10hrs of flight time for the southern US teams, it's basically the same as Japan.
  5. bean5302
    Bader is going to play every day. The Twins are banking on paying him at least $8MM, and if anything has been consistent with the Twins, it's playing veterans they paid money. Manny Margot got 343 PA last year despite being terrible all year, but there is a fair degree of likelihood Bader spends a lot of time on the IL which might hold him back. $6.25MM + $1.5M buyout + $200k for 400 PA. $8MM. Btw, 2026 is a mutual option, and if it doesn't work out. Mutual options virtually never get picked up by both parties. If Bader "works out" as you suggest, he's going to decline the option, collect the $1.5MM from the Twins and sign a new, probably multi-year, contract elsewhere.
  6. bean5302
    The debt and liquidity are the issues for the Pohlads which are probably driving the sale rather than a major issue for the new buyers. Joe Pohlad was brought in as a marketing guy. It was clear nepotism and Joe's been largely incompetent in the ways visible to Twins fans. The Minnesota (Mariners) logo which I literally fielded questions from opposing fans, and casual Twins fans a half dozen times a year. It has been universally panned. Joe's statements have hurt the reputation of the club publicly. The quick departure of Meka White Morris serves to highlight the probable dysfunction in the organization's marketing and revenue strategy (Joe Pohlad is a fairly likely source of the friction). The fan survey on this site says it all. 5% approval, 95% disapproval. Fans want no more of the Pohlads right now.
  7. bean5302
    Jeffers was 7% above league average at the plate last year. Glad his 2 strike approach was 31% above league average, but he certainly had a lot of experience in 2 strike counts to work on his approach. 1-0 = 174 PA 0-1 = 251 PA 0-2 = 118 PA 2-2 = 108 PA Jeffers consistently worked from way behind in the count which is a rough place to be. 30% better than league average with 2 strikes is still way worse than league average at 2-0.
  8. bean5302
    I think you're right in that fans won't put up with a non-competitive team threatening to lose 100 games a year while prospects who aren't ready waste their service time in the majors. It's worth noting it wasn't all team controlled cheap prospects who carried the Twins into their era of competitive play. The team payroll nearly quadrupled from 1999 to 2003 as players reached the end of their team control. There are some teams who've carried that home grown prospects only philosophy forward like the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have been to the playoffs 3x over the past 26 years. The biggest problem with trying to run a team like it's 1999 is how player development and value have been advanced over time. Of course, it helps to draft 2 future MVP's and get a Cy Young through rule 5 all at the same time. I just don't think that's legitimately sustainable.
  9. bean5302
    If we look at the defensive philosophy, deployment and drafting/development, it's hard to find an infield prospect who doesn't boot balls around like they're playing soccer. It's practically become a hallmark of Twins defenders to have lousy fielding percentages, even if they have the athletic tools. Is it really a matter of priorities when guys can't throw or catch balls?
  10. bean5302
    As William Malone noted Christian Guzman was horrifying in his rookie year (and awful the next year too) Advocating for the Twins to follow the Guzman method is crazy to me. Guzman was well below average as a hitter in the minors, including his only AA experience where he managed a .656 OPS at age 20. The Twins then bafflingly had Guzman skip AAA altogether, immediately making him the full time SS at the MLB level for his age 21 season. It was a ludicrous strategy and Guzman went on to produce -3.4 WAR with poor defense and a .543 OPS (wRC+ 34) in 1999 and then -0.1 WAR with shaky defense and a .687 OPS (wRC+ 69, steroid era) in 2000. This method would basically be promoting Kaelen Culpepper to starting 3B this year.
  11. bean5302
    The reason why metrics are used is because the eye test can be emotionally biased and based on a limited number of plays vs. analyzing all of the plays. Not saying Julien is a good fielder, btw. I've seen him make terrible plays and impressive plays. I honestly don't believe the Twins' coaches are capable of developing plus defensive players.
  12. bean5302
    First major season onwards in fWAR: Bader vs. Margot vs Kepler 3.7 vs 2.4 vs 2.0 1.6 vs 1.0 vs 1.8 3.0* vs 1.6 vs 2.4 3.0 vs 1.5* vs 3.9 1.5 vs 2.1 vs 3.3* 0.9 vs 1.3 vs 2.2 1.3 vs 0.5 vs 1.5 N/A vs -0.2 vs 2.8 N/A vs N/A vs 1.0 *2020 season, each player played 47-50 games, multiplied WAR by 3x Bader is a significant step up from Margot, historically, and Margot was in obvious major decline defensively while Bader hasn't shown that. Ultimately, Bader is a much better option than Margot in terms of a backup for Byron Buxton. Bader is "fine" as insurance. I don't expect great things from him, but I also don't expect a sub 1.0 WAR season from him, let alone a negative WAR season like Margot had. In regard to comparing Bader to Kepler (who is annihilating pitchers in Spring Training), Kepler is the significantly better player. Kepler is a league average bat with some significant upside, and Max has pretty much always justified his role as an every day starter while Bader has been a backup quality player a couple times. Bader is a well below average bat without Kepler's ceiling, but Bader is the better of two defensively, by a healthy margin for the last couple years. Bader is going to play pretty much every day. He's probably on a 1 year $9.5MM contract ($6.25 base + $1.5MM for 500 PA + $1.5MM buyout).
  13. bean5302
    He signed with the Yankees on an MLB contract.
  14. bean5302
    The term natural position often means the position the player is most suited to play. Since he was drafted, many scouts felt Martin was going to end up at 2B due to a combination of his good, but not excellent speed, and an arm which isn't really suited for the far side of the infield.
  15. bean5302
    He's been DFA'd. If he clears waivers (I'd be fairly surprised if he did), the Twins will offer him back to the Phillies.
  16. bean5302
    If the focus on the 12 innings he pitched in relief in 2023, and everything else gets ignored, I can see why people would have high ceiling optimism. That said, if you're going to create a narrative like the "one inning, let it fly" and "attention span" ideas, at least check his game logs. Only 3 of his 7 relief appearances in 2023 were limited to 1.0 innings or less, and Varland had similar success in the 1.2+ inning appearances. In 2024 only 3 of his 9 relief appearances were 1.0 inning without some sort of boost in performance from what I see. Varland's results out of the 'pen were bad in 2024, but his metrics and pitch qualities suggest he could be a 3.50-4.00 ERA reliever to me.
  17. bean5302
    Hendriks is a very different pitcher than Varland, and Hendiks' transition to reliever resulted in a much more dramatic change. Hendriks picked up 4mph going from averaging 91.5mph to 95.5mph in his first year as a reliever. His velocity peaked at over 97.5mph meaning a total of 6mph improvement. Varland only goes up 1-2mph since he was already throwing hard. In terms of stuff, Hendriks has developed 2 plus pitches, he's more like Griffin Jax. Varland probably has no plus pitches. The curve might work out for him as a good plus pitch, but he rarely threw it last year. Varland's other offerings are pretty average. I expect Varland to be a mediocre reliever with stuff that doesn't move well so it gets barreled up, and velo which isn't overpowering relative to the average reliever. Varland's results as a reliever thus far have not been inspiring.
  18. bean5302
    Overstretching is one of the biggest contributors to injury.
  19. bean5302
    That's essentially what I call QS2. 5.0+ innings, ERA of 3.99 or less. The reason is the likelihood of winning a game. For each run your pitchers allow, the chances of winning a game drop dramatically. Here are the winning percentages if the Twins pitchers allowed <x> number of runs, assuming ties are 50/50 win/loss. Notice after allowing more than 1 run, it's a pretty linear decline in winning percentage for every run allowed. 0 = .969 (157-5) 1 = .895 (145-17) -.074 2 = .772 (125-37) -.123 3 = .623 (102-60) -.142 4 = .500 (81-81) -.129 5 = .377 (61-101) -.123 6 = .265 (43-119) -.111 This is why 6.0 Innings and allowing 3 Runs is not really a quality start IMHO. You leave your bullpen in a situation where they need to throw 3 scoreless innings (very difficult) because if they allow another run, you're not likely to win the game. A pitcher who goes 6.0 innings and allows 3 ER (4.50 ERA) didn't give their team a good chance at a playoff record. 6.0 IP and 3 ER has a much lower chance of victory than 5.0 IP and 2 ER because the bullpen can cough up a run in the latter case and still have a great chance at winning.
  20. bean5302
    I'd imagine SS depth with Lee/Lewis/Eeles out is probably: Correa -> Castro -> Holland I suppose it's possible we could see Martin at SS.
  21. bean5302
    Almost as thorough as my example :)
  22. bean5302
    It's funny to me to watch the shift in opinion on TD for Gasper. The lamentation Gasper might somehow see a plate appearance from a couple months ago to the thoughts Gasper is a good addition to the 26 man and that he will become some sort of fan favorite. What I will say is Gasper is doing exactly what he needs to show his bat might play at the MLB level, and that's swing at more pitches. His overall swing rate is at 41.4% this spring. Still very low, but essentially the highest of his career. Gasper will not be able to be as passive as he's historically been at the MLB level because MLB pitchers know how to throw strikes which aren't mistakes. Players will not be successful waiting exclusively for meatballs like they can feast on through the low minors, and have some success even through AAA. Gasper's first pitch strike rate is only 40.5% right now, but it's not going to stay that way. Since Gasper is starting 60% of his plate appearances ahead it in count 1-0, it's no surprise his BB rate and K rate are so impressive this spring. His batted ball profile this spring is mediocre line drive rate, lots and lots of grounders, and some fly balls with moderate pop. He'll need to reduce the grounders in exchange for his historically higher line drives to have continued success. If he's able to adapt to MLB pitching and reach his potential at the plate, Gasper's batted ball profile probably falls somewhere between Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien, but I'd be surprised if Gasper was ever a true plus value bat. Whether or not Gasper could be a regular depends on his defense and position.
  23. bean5302
    Check out hockeywilderness.com sometime, LOL. It's endless contradictions. On Monday morning the Wild are hopeless, doomed for all eternity, the team's strategy is flawed, the GM needs to be fired, and the owner should sell the team. On Monday night bit player a had a good game so the Wild are now serious threats for the Stanley Cup thanks to the super stud GM acquiring bit player A. At least I don't have to read how a historically dirty Twins player tried to kill another player on the ice so they've got an unfair 8 game suspension! Oh the humanity!
  24. bean5302
    Isn't it a tough job following me around the forums like a lost puppy downvoting and taunting me on everything I post like a sociopathic 6yr old? At least I can rest easy knowing some things never change, haha. I hope you know you've been ignored for months so the only time I see your posts is when I forget to log in, lol. Taunt away!
  25. bean5302
    I agree with the universal sentiment here. #17 overall vs. #3 is a meaningless distinction. Walker Jenkins is universally considered an elite prospect with the ceiling of a superstar player by scouts. In my analysis of similar prospects, Jenkins falls into the 2nd tier of players. (High school draft picks ranked in the top 10 for MLB, in A+ or above by age 19). The top tier were all star players. The second tier had guys like Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa, but also 50% of guys who washed out at the MLB level (everybody made MLB). I'm lower on Jenkins than probably anybody on TD, and certainly lower than scouts as I think he'll wind up being more Max Kepler than a superstar, but Max Kepler is one of the top 30 Twins position players in career WAR to ever wear the jersey. Huge score for any draft pick.
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