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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    There are 9 lineup positions. 30 teams. 270 total expected players if everybody played a full season. So by "starters" on a team, here are the percentages who reached the following level of plate appearances MLB vs. the Twins. 500 PA = 130 (48%), vs. 2 (22%) 450 PA = 169 (63%), vs. 3 (33%) 400 PA = 207 (77%), vs. 5 (56%) The Twins are almost uniquely poor in terms of keeping players in the lineup or on the field due to Baldelli's proclivity, and constant player injuries.
  2. bean5302
    No sensationalism here...
  3. bean5302
    Potential Chris Paddack trades the Twins should consider. All of them where a team eats over 50% of Paddack's salary.
  4. bean5302
    Vazquez used to be an MLB caliber player. Should we go out and bring back Michael Cuddyer? He was an 18 WAR career player!
  5. bean5302
    Let me help. I read the headline and answer with "None" Replacing a AAA caliber player isn't hard. If trading a AAA caliber player has "catastrophic" consequences, something is seriously wrong with the team. Just another ridiculously over-dramatic article from some crazed Vazquez supporter. He's not an MLB caliber player. Give it up.
  6. bean5302
    Wallner and Larnach are not similar hitters, but neither is likely to be good at something they're never asked to do or practice. Worth noting, LHP throw about 25% of innings in MLB. Therefore, the Twins really need to trade every single one of their right handed batters away!
  7. bean5302
    FIP is considered to be more stable than ERA in smaller sample sizes. I do like using xFIP, but the batted ball data from MiLB is less reliable than MLB. Henriquez's HR's allowed were spread pretty evenly through the season in terms of 1st half vs. 2nd half, though they tended to be bunched in bursts when he allowed them. Breaking his AAA appearances down: -0.43-2.99 FIP = 15 3.00-3.99 FIP = 3 4.00-4.99 FIP = 4 5.00-42.57 FIP = 12 Basically, he's either good or gets destroyed by a home run. Henriquez is a ground ball reliever who doesn't entice hitters to chase outside the zone very well, but with good placement in the zone, he can generate a fair number of swings and misses on the changeup. None of his pitches move well, but he has good velocity. Lots of hard contact. When Henriquez makes a mistake, and all pitchers make mistakes, hitters have been able to easily capitalize. There just hasn't been a lot of wiggle room for Henriquez.
  8. bean5302
    The Twins are not going to utilize a 3 catcher rotation. Either Vazquez will be traded and the most impressive of the depth guys in Spring Training will start off as a backup to Jeffers or the depth guys will stay depth guys in AAA, and be called up as injury replacement options. Vazquez is a negative WAR player so the impact on team performance for replacing him with a AAA replacement player is minimal.
  9. bean5302
    Not sure what this quote means, but case studies I've browsed show no injury prevention benefit from pitching on more than 5 days of rest. Proponents of the concept remain steadfast supporters of a hypothetical advantage that hasn't shown up in medical case studies. Like tapping the lid of the soft drink can before opening it will prevent the drink from overflowing. The 6 man rotation proponents have practically reached cult-like status at this point. For years they've talked about teams who are expected to implement 6 man rotations, bolstering their cause with phrases like "the six man trend," though there hasn't been a trend because no teams have actually used it apart from the Angels. The "six man rotation" is almost always related to major injuries and spot starts, and there's always a starter which miraculously has 30 starts on the team. 27 starts would be the theoretical maximum for a planned and scheduled 6 man rotation. The Dodgers are this year's definitely doing a 6 man rotation! Except I'd be willing to bet money they won't. The Dodgers are not going to trade Shohei Ohtani starts for Tony Gonsolin starts, especially when Gonsolin has an option, and has declined recently. The drop off from a #1 starter to a #6 or AAA replacement starter is enormous. That's why the 6 man rotations doesn't actually exist. Teams are trying to win games, not lose them.
  10. bean5302
    Win-now seems to be a newly divisive term, after all, it is the internet. *Win-now has generally been a term for a team which is in the middle of it's competitive window. *Competitive window is generally a concept used when a team is returning the vast majority of its core players when that core has been successful. *Successful as in either the team has been competitive in making the playoffs or is viewed as a legitimate playoff contending team. *Legitimate playoff contending team is a team which is generally expected to have a winning record, and with a little luck, will make the MLB postseason playoffs. *Generally expected refers to respected projection models on published statistics websites and / or national analysts. *Statistics websites means recognized data sources for national analysts. *National analysts meaning NOT a fan poster on TwinsDaily. The Twins appear to be in their competitive window, thus they're in win-now mode. If the Twins traded Correa, Lopez, and Ryan, they would no longer be in their competitive window and would be starting a rebuild or retool or whatever you want to call it while they develop the next era of talent on the team.
  11. bean5302
    You mean the one who has learned how to get outs at the MLB level at a far better rate than he was at age 25? Tonkin is looking like a solid MLB reliever. Henriquez wasn't even a solid AAA reliever.
  12. bean5302
    In a word? No.
  13. bean5302
    Yes, he really does. Michael Tonkin a24 AAA = 45.0 IP, 2.80 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 9.20 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 44.7% GB a25 AAA = 41.0 IP, 1.10 ERA, 1.99 FIP, 10.10 K/9, 1.10 BB/9, 53.1% GB Tonkin was light years better than Henriquez was.
  14. bean5302
    I'd have an interest in ALL the prospects everywhere, but not before solidifying the MLB roster :) Front office changeovers have come with an abandonment or cleaning of house of existing prospects, though. Falvey was quick to move on from previous regime prospects in many cases, though it doesn't seem to have been colossally damaging.
  15. bean5302
    Henriquez was in professional level ball 8 years ago after being drafted out of high school in 2018. 25 is the cutoff for legitimate prospect, and FIPs which have improved from 5.27 in AAA in 2023 all the way to 4.53 as a reliever last year seem to inspire you more than me. Could he get better? Yeah, and he probably will. The issue for me is that he needs to get a lot, lot, lot better.
  16. bean5302
    The Twins are in win-now mode with several probable holes in the lineup. Castro is a valuable player. Trade proposals should take both of those things into consideration.
  17. bean5302
    Henriquez's career is already broken. He's only on the roster because he's cheap and team controlled. He's probably adequate as a low leverage middle innings reliever thanks to generating so many ground balls, but beyond that, he's not interesting. Henriquez would likely pass through waivers, IMHO, and even if he didn't, I wouldn't be concerned about losing him. When it comes to Varland, he gives up tons of hard contact because his pitches don't move well. The added velocity out of the bullpen only helps a little because batters have less decision time.
  18. bean5302
    Correa is a good shortstop. If he wanted out, he would have been traded already. The "cheapskate" Pohlads rank right where they did two years ago in terms of payroll rank. Get over it.
  19. bean5302
    No. Everybody cannot agree on that as there are other teams who needed to make moves as much or more than the Twins, plus many teams had the budget to make the moves. Instead those teams just wound up being mostly tire-kickers and also rans in competitions for talent so far. Teams like the Orioles and Tigers. I have to wonder what players you'd consider non-questions...
  20. bean5302
    How to create a narrative history to demonize a public figure and perform modern internet based character assassination on a guy who died 16yrs ago, by @Peter Labuza
  21. bean5302
    I saw all the 58lb weight loss quotes to begin last year (2024), but no actual listed weight. Still looked like when he was playing at 260ish to me so he was probably north of 3 bills when he started his "weight loss" https://halohangout.com/posts/la-angels-nri-miguel-sano-revealed-he-lost-absurd-amount-of-weight-2024-comeback-01hqjyng7zff You're right about Sano playing 220ish. If he'd stayed under 230lbs, he'd have probably been a plus fielder at 3B, he'd have been on the field more, and he'd likely have no gaps in his playing years.
  22. bean5302
    I understand. That argument is that Pohlad couldn't have possibly invested his money anywhere else, only the bus company could have benefitted Pohlad. It's unfortunate you potentially can't open a link. If you were able to read the financial statements, the profits being reported in the article were from the other investments MEI made. Actual profits from the bussing business in 1964 were only $600k. The total revenue that year was $14MM. $14MM in revenue is not driving $160MM in profits to Pohlad, either.
  23. bean5302
    Not sure what the point of this article was. Apologists lining up for their hero, Derek Falvey already, I guess? The Twins are currently projected as sitting right about 16th or 17th in MLB payroll, and it's unlikely they're going to be much lower than that. It's time to quit whining about it as if Falvey's been building a house with scraps left over from another job site. It'd be nice if the Pohlads were on board with the concept of spend money to make money, but they're not. There are plenty of paths to a passing grade. Even an "A" available to Falvey, but he usually waits until there is A) a great deal or B) absolutely no deals on the market.
  24. bean5302
    Beating the players down has led to relationship problems between players and teams in the past. Manipulating service time, arbitration hearings, etc have all contributed to player/team relationship stress. It doesn't matter if every team does it. It matters what team does it to what player.
  25. bean5302
    I think his departure reads a lot more like a guy who wants better life balance and good comp.
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