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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    https://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/200111/16_khoom_twins/index.shtml Crump ruled the way he did because the Minnesota Twins were considered part of the community and this was more than just a typical tenant vs landlord dispute. If it was just a tenant/landlord issue, the Twins could have just bought out their lease and rolled out of town.
  2. bean5302
    If commenters don't believe a player can put pressure on ownership, they've sure forgotten the history of this club. Radke pushed ownership HARD, and that was likely a major reason the Twins are still in "Minnesota" because I do not believe Judge Harry Seymour Crump would have ruled to block the Twins from moving if the attendance in 2001 had followed the trend in previous years, and without Radke being extended or the resulting investment into that 2001 team, I don't think think attendance would have rallied. Prior to Radke, Puckett rallied fans to put an immense amount of pressure on ownership. A player can't force an owner to do something, but they sure can make it uncomfortable to not make at least a legitimate effort. Falvey's a politician. No idea what the Twins' ownership has stated the maximum next season budget will be, but historically, the Pohlads have made that known before the end of the previous season. It wouldn't surprise me if there was a 2 part budget. Rebuild or Compete depending on what free agency looks like, but who knows with this team.
  3. bean5302
    Ryan Jeffers is a solid 1.5-2.0ish WAR catcher. League average-ish bat, defensively below average. He's an average-ish starting catcher, but below the median. Rutschman is a big of an enigma at this point. He was a legitimate 4.0 WAR catcher, but the near RoY followed with back to back All Star game player has fallen off at the plate. It's hard to see what has caused that drop off in the batted ball metrics. Nothing looked crazy to me. The xwOBA was 25pts higher than actual last year, and history doesn't support there being a big difference. Rutschman carries a BTV surplus value for +25. Joe Ryan is more like +53. Trading Ryan for Rutschman would be insane. Lopez is +16 due to his substantial salary. Rutschman is similar to Emmanuel Rodriguez or Matt Wallner for all the guys who hate Wallner around here, haha. The changes Rutschman is an upgrade over Jeffers is probably high, IMHO, but there's little extra control for the Twins who are not exactly obvious playoff favorites in the next year or two. I don't really understand the move unless the Twins are confident locking up Rutschman long term.
  4. bean5302
    Clemens had a much higher xwOBA than acutal. As far as all these free agent 1B out there, I'm not sure who they are. Guys like Ty France? Worse at the plate than Clemens was last year. France was last passable as a regular 1B (just barely) in 2023, and last good in 2022. Looking at Clemens, it seems like he was a bit unlucky. I don't think he's going to be a great hitter or anything, but just as good as we might expect from a dumpster-dive 1B is likely, imho. No of the fans here know what the Twins are going to do for a budget, but it seems awfully unlikely we're going to go get Alonso.
  5. bean5302
    I think Buxton is going to have to show some enormous leadership this offseason (provided he's still here). It's on him to get these young guys back on board. Buck's been there. He's been told to hit a certain way, change his approach to methods which didn't feel good and didn't work, feeling undervalued by the front office, having his service time manipulated, potentially losing the appearance of being the face of the franchise to a new guy, fighting through endless injuries, watching the game evolve, etc. As an All Star and one of the most respected players in the game who has seen it all, he has the background and experience to get the young guys on board. I'm not sure he has the personality built for it because we don't see inside the locker room. But his biggest contribution to the team's success might well come off the field this year.
  6. bean5302
    For me, BABIP is an awful lot like HR:FB rates. Very few pitchers can sustain HR:FB rates which are substantially better than league average, but there are some complexities like high pop-up rates. The vast majority of MLB hitters are following the hard contact, pull-hitter fly ball model. Very few Luis Arraez's or Austin Martin's looping soft liners into the middle of the outfield out there. More sprint speed (IFH), lower pop-ups, more line drives, harder hitting gets anomalys.
  7. bean5302
    He has been pretty healthy, but his velo often tanks after 60ish pitches and late in the season, and he's not efficient because he doesn't have the stuff. If SWR tries to attack hitters in the zone, he gets destroyed so he needs to play on the edges. At 94mph, SWR can be effective, but SWR throwing 91-92 can't get guys out anymore. When he first came up in 2022-2023 at 88-91mph, he wasn't even effective in MiLB. In 2023 his boost up to 92-93 was effective at the MLB level, but as the scouting reports caught up, SWR needed that extra 1mph on top of that based on what I've seen. Unless SWR commits to improved conditioning, he's not going to be able to pitch more than 4 innings reliably. At that point... is he really a "starter" worth having in the rotation? He's going to cap out at 1.5-2.0 WAR. Not that much better in terms of value added than a multi-inning reliever. Durability means more than just injury history to me.
  8. bean5302
    DRS doesn't like Royce Lewis while OAA does. Both are prone to pretty wild swings and neither is remotely accurate for a single year sample size. That said, I expect Williamson is going to be elite at 3B, and he could probably cover SS more than adequately. Great glove, plenty of speed/range, and at least a passable arm at SS. Williamson isn't going to be replaced by Royce Lewis. Seattle would have to move somebody else.
  9. bean5302
    No player I've seen has made a bigger impact on my view of the team than Royce Lewis. What he was doing in 2023 was remarkable. It didn't matter what pitch was being thrown or where it was being placed. He was absolutely locked in. Through years of injuries, he kept his optimism and the kind of infectious charisma which could make him one of the greatest and most beloved players in the game. It's also pretty clear the front office, management and coaches on this team lost his buy in. The comments about the quick hooks, is that about him or just what he's seen? Wallner, Julien, Miranda, Martin, all had pretty short leashes, even if the leash was deserved from a fan perspective. Meanwhile, veteran players like Vazquez and Margot seeminly had infinite leashes despite being terrible. Lewis was told he was the SS, instead the Twins brought back Correa and moved Lewis off even backup SS duties in favor of Lee. Another short leash. Who is responsible for the players not believing the organization has their best interest? Oh, and make no mistake, if Lewis is openingly speaking about all these issues, there are another dozen players who feel exactly the same way but don't want to endure the backlash. Falvey has a long history of alienating his best young players. Is anybody surprised Lewis has followed the same path? In any case, Lewis is definitely at a crossroads. He needs to regain his mojo, refocus, and take accountability for his poor play. He's certainly not going to improve by blaming others, and results grant opinions value. If he doesn't trust the organization, ask for a trade or find the help he needs independently outside the organization. The raw power is still there, his fielding is improved, his heath is improved and he's got a full offseason to see if he can regain his explosiveness and speed. Next year will likely determine whether or not Lewis becomes a full fledged star or yet another in a long line of failed young can't-miss prospect tied to the Twins organization.
  10. bean5302
    A lot will depend on what happens with the Twins' strategy on payroll and veteran rotation members along with options, IMHO. (no options) SWR might get more opportunity to prove he can go more than 60-80 pitches with Shelton. That will determine whether or not he belongs in the rotation AFAIC. I think he'll be best suited to the 'pen. (has options) Taj Bradley will be in the rotation someplace. (has options) Mick Abel is likely going to the bullpen until he can throw strikes if he makes the MLB roster. A reliever can get away with a little less command and some bigger velos and movement. (has options) Matthews will be in the rotation, I think. Has to prove his durability with the higher velo which makes him viable as a mid-rotation starter. (has options) Festa's TOS is a serious concern. The spin on his situation is positive, but the red flag is real for me. (has options) Andrew Morris. Doesn't have the stuff to be an MLB starter in my opinion. He's a reliever if he can make it in MLB. (has options) Kendry Rojas. Not a consideration for opening day 26 man roster, I don't think. (has options) Connor Prielipp. Good question. I think the Twins will make the call during Sprint Training for him. Is he ready for MLB? Does he have what it takes to go through the lineup TTO?
  11. bean5302
    I'm wondering if the debate is now changing from Wallner and Larnach are the same player and worth the same value to whether or not Wallner is a guaranteed stud? A neutral source like BTV makes it very clear models don't support Wallner and Larnach being remotely comparable which is what I've been talking about. Wallner was +0.70 WPA until last year, but like fielding metrics, WPA can have wild swings so let's remove Wallners 2 significant seasons before last year and focus only on 2025. @ashbury may have dug up some numbers, but there are always going to be stats that support a narrative if you work hard enough to find them. I did point out the fact Wallner's production was better with runners on base last year than bases empty, but lets ignore that and focus only on high leverage. With RISP and for high leverage (all 30 plate appearances🙄 ) his production was lower, but his walk rate was highest and his K rate was lowest. When I'm going to use a stat like WPA, I want to know about sample size and why things happened the way they did. In Wallner's case, limited to last year only because the narrative isn't supported by his first 2 significant seasons. High leverage last year, Wallner had a .000 BABIP on 18 balls in play despite his hard hit rate being the highest of the 3 categories (low/med/high leverage). Do you think that's sustainable? That's where WPA comes from. SSS often luck fueled results in high leverage situations. Toss out five games last year, and Wallner's WPA isn't even negative. In those worst WPA games, Wallner never struck out more than one time in the game. Ground out (8/20), pop up (6/22), fly out (9/5), line out+foul-tip (6/14), strike out (9/13). 6 plate appearances fed the vast majority of Wallner's negative WPA last year.
  12. bean5302
    That's what you took away from my comment? I never said Wallner was a good outfielder. I just addressed your point(s) which aren't backed up by the stats I can pull. Injured all the time? Wanna go there? 2025 - 100G 2024 - 142G 2023 - 143G 2022 - 146G
  13. bean5302
    Wallner .829 career OPS Larnach .726 career OPS See that "WAR" column? Pretty huge difference there. Wallner makes $760k with 4 more years of control, Larnach will make $5MM with 1 year of control. In addition, Wallner (despite the TD fan narrative which is pretty easy to debunk with data...) was better with runners on base last year than bases empty, and substantially superior to Larnach. Even with RISP you can see Wallner walked more and struck out less... because pitchers were desperate to pitch around him. Wallner is also much faster than the below average Larnach (26-27 ft/sec). Wallner's sprint speed was borderline center fielder level (28 ft/sec in prior years), and Wallner is neutral on the basepaths where Larnach has always been a below average base runner. Summary, Wallner is an elite max exit velo power fly ball hitter with 30HR+ annual potential, above average speed and a cannon arm under team control for 4 more years at league minimum. Larnach is a medium max exit velo, line drive hitter with 20HR potential, below average speed and an average to below average arm with just next year remaining under team control at 7x the cost of Wallner.
  14. bean5302
    Larnach's "better" year was 0.2 fWAR and he's projected for a $5MM salary. Larnach has one year in his entire career where he wasn't a liability as a regular player for a good team, and even last year, it's not like you'd actually want him playing every day (1.4 fWAR). He's a league average bat at DH if he plays every day. He's a good hitter, and he can add some value as a platoon bat if he's totally shielded from lefties. A platoon bat DH still doesn't have much value, though. Okert got cut so while he was technically a reliever, he couldn't even stick out the whole season because of performance woes.
  15. bean5302
    Matt Wallner is worth a top 5 org prospect from any team or a mid-rotation growing expensive arm like Jesus Luzardo. You're right about Larnach having no value, though. I will never understand why people group Wallner and Larnach together.
  16. bean5302
    Ownership "your payroll ceiling is x" GM "okay, I'll plan based on the budget of x" You know. Like every single other business in America. Right now, if the Twins hold the course, their payroll projection is $89MM. Let say the payroll target was $50MM. No problem. Gotta drop $40MM of payroll. Buxton and Lopez need to be moved and replaced with pre-arb to arb1 players making $1MM or so. There, we're at $50MM or real close to it.
  17. bean5302
    Walker Jenkins, Kaelyn Culpepper or Connor Prielipp. Probably the only two who are likely to be in consideration with an outside shot for Gabriel Gonzalez. In order to win RoY, the player is going to need to be called up and playing in the first couple months of the season. Jenkins is clearly the top prospect int he organization right now, and I could see the Twins calling him up quickly like what happened with Buxton. Culpepper is a SS. If the Twins sign somebody to man the SS position, Culpepper's shot for 2026 drops dramatically as there would be much less pressure to rush him to the big show. Prielipp having a full season last year, flashing some really outstanding stuff, and now hopefully having a full offseason to build up. He could be really great, and I'd be surprised if he wasn't considered for the opening day roster as he's already burning options. Gonzalez's ceiling is pretty limited, but the hit tool might be able to carry him well enough, and who knows what the front office is going to do? If a roster shuffle gets Gonzalez early season playing time, I think it's possible he could be a dark horse (Twins group anyway). I just don't see the rest of the group as having the upside or opportunity next year. We'll definitely see Emmanual Rodriguez on the roster next year as he's already burned 2 options. I think he starts on the opening day roster, to be honest, but I also think he's going to get absolutely eaten alive by MLB pitchers. I'd like to see the Twins trade him if they can.
  18. bean5302
    Miranda looked like a solid every day 1B to me, until he didn't. The AAA struggles last year have evaporated any expectation of his career rebounding. It's a bummer how things turned out.
  19. bean5302
    You know what I'd like to see to these articles? The writer's perspective on the Twins plan written up, and a link to it with a quick summary before the meat of the article. In this case, maybe Cody believes the Twins will aim for .500ish ball while retooling with a $100MM payroll. Or maybe each writer is assigned/chooses a scenario and bases their articles on that scenario. a) Twins are in it for a Championship in 2026 and will make drastic changes to make it happen. They're sticking to the $140MM+ range b) The Twins are willing to stay the course and keep the door open for a championship season if luck goes their way, but the payroll is cutting back to the $120-130MM range c) Twins are aiming for 75-80 wins, not great, but not a full blown rebuild and they'll stay in the low $100MM range. d) The Twins are entering a rebuild mode. Payroll will be under $100MM, but the Twins are still willing to hang on to some projectable team controlled guys. e) The Twins are absolutely blowing it up. Nobody's roster spot is secure. Anything goes. Payroll is under $80MM. Clearing the books and finding value to trade at the deadline (the Noah Syndergaard lottery ticket stuff) to turn into prospect pipeline material is the name of the game. The real strategy of the front office will make any of these articles more or less plausible and connect me (and probably other readers) to the article.
  20. bean5302
    Buxtons' bat has stabilized in that wRC+ 130-140 range, well above what I expected from him. Over his past 6 seasons and 2,048 trips to the plate he's a .255/.319/.537 OPS .856 wRC+ 133 hitter. That reflects a much improved walk rate which came with experience. If Buxton had always been healthy, I still think he would have been a 5-6 WAR player year in and year out from age 25+, but depending on the defensive metric driving the WAR calculation, he might have been able to eek out a MVP consideration season. I think he'd be a borderline HoF candidate with about 45 WAR entering his age 32 season right now. All that said, there are a ton of players who were really great but never reached their career potential because of injury. Sad to see it happen, but it does.
  21. bean5302
    Then it's Falvey's fault for drafting the wrong guys. Or envisioning the development strategy and hiring the coaches and development team to carry out that vision. It all comes back to Falvey. Guys who were written off and still get another big chance to break through are rare. If Rooker had been claimed by a different team who didn't already have an established corner outfielder hierarchy, for instance, do you think he would have gotten the consistent plate appearances or do you think he just would have been treated more like MiLB roster filler, and injury replacement (preferably short term) depth? Also, I get the impression people believe a player can just unlearn bad practices and change their entire approach to the game on a whim when there's an option better suited to them. Like, "change your stance" or "add a pitch" or "stop swining at bad pitches" etc. 5+ years in the Twins system learning the Falvey way is stickier than a couple months in the minors elsewhere. I guess my opinion is Twins development failures already have a remote chance of being given the opportunity to play because they've already been written off, if they do get an opportunity, it's not likely to be very long so they have to deliver immediately, and they've got to overcome 5+ years of bad practices instilled into them by the Twins.
  22. bean5302
    It's a bit hard to take you seriously when you're comparing 16 year old Miguel Sano who was 6'3" and 185lbs at the time to 25+ year old Jose Miranda. Sano started 30 games between age 17-18 in the minors and never played there again as he bulked up and was no longer fit for the position. He went on to balloon to over 300lbs and Sano was moved as he grew out of each position he played. Jose Miranda was 24 for his debut and had already filled out. A poor runner with a weaker arm, (and the patented Twins coached rock hands) it was already established he was going to be stretched at 3B, but the Twins kept him there anyway when Miranda proved to be inadequate there. I don't recall either player complaining about the position they were playing. Does a player have to publicly complain when they're being deployed improperly? Seems to me any player complaints about position generates about 100 threads of fan rage around these parts.
  23. bean5302
    Derek Falvey envisions the organizational strategy and asks coaches to implement it. Popkins did exactly what Falvey asked by reducing K's and focusing more on contact in 2024, and the results reflected that in an impressive fashion. It's Falvey's strategy which was flawed since it didn't play to the strengths of the players Falvey drafted and his team developed. Falvey is by far the biggest problem for this organization's on field performance.
  24. bean5302
    Miranda was a 1B the Twins asked to play other positions. Was he mishandled? I think so. Regardless, it's not an excuse for Miranda to play poorly in AAA. I didn't see a legitimate reason not to outright him. Has his time as a Twins player ended? Maybe. He's probably a candidate to come back on a MiLB contract as I don't think there's going to be a lot of interest in him across the league.
  25. bean5302
    Jeffers - Yes SWR - No, he's a reliever Bradley - Maybe? Lewis - Would never agree at a price point which would make sense (I hope). Keaschall - Too early IMHO. The upside is there and the Twins will have to pay for it, but there's a solid chance he turns into a pumpkin, too. Jenkins - Yes, at the right price.
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