bean5302

That does make sense. If the deals were always lopsided in favor of the team getting prospects or the team getting the elite player, the deals would change. It just about what the teams are risking for the reward. I think it's pretty rare teams acquire an elite player and that player does not help the team at all in the current year. Playoffs don't grow on trees historically in baseball, but the owners seem intent on changing that, but that's a different topic. The risk is next year is totally unknown. Who knows what will happen? That's the case for any team. If you're on the track to the playoffs this year, a single World Series win is worth any player in baseball whether the player's name is Mike Trout or Juan Soto.

Ober has always had major injury concerns so it's not surprising they've followed him through the levels and now to MLB. Most fans remember injury concerns and the limited number of innings Ober had thrown prior to last year, and it really looked like he may have turned a corner as he was pretty healthy throughout last year. In the example given regarding the Yankees, it's a little dicey. While this year, the Yankees rotation has been hit hard by injuries in recent years. Severino missed virtually 3 full years. Kluber was plagued with injuries last year as well. German missed a ton of time this year and last year with a shoulder impingement issue. This year's Yankees rotation has been pretty solid, but there have been plenty of other injuries across baseball. I'm not sure the Twins starters are far worse than average. Pitching injuries are a valid concern across MLB in general IMHO. The dreaded automatic TJ for every hard thrower seems to have gotten ridiculous. The Twins are supposedly on the cutting edge of sports medicine and pitching mechanics knowledge designed to improve pitchers' velocity while doing it in a way that is supposed to help avoid injury. I think the truth is kids starting in high school or earlier are throwing with more effort and there's an incentive to throw hard because higher velocity does trend with better performance. There may be problems with the Twins' approach; trying to convert throwing motions and mechanics. I'm way out of my league in knowing, but it does feel like there might be something there.

Honestly, most of the pitching staff was due for massive regression. Even after being shelled for 10 runs, Ryan still isn't there yet as he lucked out in 4 of 5 of his starts in July. His 3.78 ERA is still way lower than his 4.43 FIP and 4.63 xFIP. As of June 30, ERA vs FIP vs xFIP and what their season xFIPs have done since June 30th. Ryan 3.20 vs. 3.93 vs. 4.65 (xFIP is down 0.02) Gray 2.17 vs. 2.86 vs. 3.31 (xFIP is up 0.48) Archer 3.08 vs. 4.90 vs. 4.99 (xFIP is up 0.09) Bundy 4.71 vs. 4.32 vs. 4.44 (xFIP is down 0.10) Smeltzer 2.86 vs. 4.41 vs. 4.67 (xFIP is up 0.32) Apart from Bundy, every other Twins pitcher had an ERA at least 1.24 pts lower than their xFIP The rotation is pitching very similar to how they were, they're just not getting ridiculously lucky anymore. I don't mind the Twins playing Sano. He's on the roster so they could get a peek at him so I don't see the harm in doing what they intended. A couple more days of game time before DFAing him is fine. Now... if Sano continues to struggle at the plate and he's still on the roster after mid August, now there's a problem.

Polanco's a very good player and it's well recognized here and across the league. This year he's really made a big change in plate discipline and it's paid off with an elite walk rate which I wouldn't have expected, and I think that further elevates his game quite a bit. Defensive metrics continue to be very divided on him and it has a big impact on fWAR vs bWAR. I think the question on Polanco is about how much the Twins gain or lose by having Arraez as the starting 2B and what Polanco could bring to the team in terms of trade value.

The level of butt-hurt in here... It's as if this guy just slapped your mom and tripped your dad (who was using crutches at the time) in front of you before doing one of those douchey back up with the arms spread, head tilted "whatcha gonna do?" faces. The potential of the White Sox is undeniable. They're sleeping monsters right now. If their pitchers figure some stuff out and have a couple bounces go their way, that team could be unstoppable. Cease is an ace this year Kopech has ace potential. Giolito has ace potential. Lynn has ace potential Cueto is having a nice resurgence year Every single one of those guys is arguably potentially better than any pitcher we have. Certainly everybody excluding Cueto. Now, when it comes to the offensive side, they could use a little help, but Moncada appears to finally be waking up and Eloy Jimenez was just activated. Both have more potential than any player not named Buxton on the Twins. The White Sox could easily go on a .700 winning percentage to end the season and the Twins have been under .500 since mid/late May. The White Sox's schedule is more than 1/2 made up of series' against losing teams, most of whom are going to be sellers and will probably further regress. Rockies (.450, bad, sellers) Athletics (.376, terrible, sellers) Royals (.394 terrible, sellers) Rangers (.449 bad) Royals (.394 terrible, sellers) Tigers (.400 terrible) Astros (.650 excellent) Guardians (.510 good) Royals (.394 terrible, sellers) Orioles (.505, wow, I didn't expect that, go Orioles) Diamondbacks (.459, bad, sellers) Royals (.394 terrible, sellers) Twins (.531 good) Mariners (.540 good) Athletics (.376 terrible, sellers) Rockies (.450 bad, sellers) Tigers (.400, terrible) Guardians (.510 good) Tigers (.400, terrible) Twins (.531 good) Padres (.550 very good) Twins (.531 good) I do not like the White Sox, but I recognize how much money has been spent there and just how much talent that team has. The fact they're hovering around .500 this year feels like an act of God.

Lewis is the only bright spot for this front office's top drafts so far and the only elite prospect in the entire Twins' system. The Twins have no shortstop again next year and no shortstop of the future waiting in the minors at the moment. If this front office deals Lewis, they need a deep postseason run to keep their jobs, IMHO.

Oh crap! I totally missed the opportunity to be the first one to post this: OMG Brad Peacock, our season is saved!!!! This isn't the elite closer we needed! Why is Falvey even using ink on these guys? Does he really believe BRAD PEACOCK is the guy? Just what I was expecting from this front office. We're doomed to burn in eternal hellfire for 1,000 years now! Fire Falvey!!! Fire them AALLLLLLLL!!!!! Sweet. Needed to make sure that post was made.

Peacock is now 34 and though he has a high K rate, he's walking way too many guys and giving up a lot of hits, too. WHIP is sitting at 1.28 in AAA. That said, Kansas City is cooked for the year, but I believe they're intent on finding a way to become good again, especially with a new stadium on the horizon. Peacock obviously doesn't fit into future plans for KC. I suspect they quickly gauged no team was too interested in Peacock as a trade chip so why not release a veteran who may have a chance to catch on with a contender as a measure of good will?

Martin hurt his elbow diving for a ball on July 7th. It wasn't expected to be long term.

Beckham has a long MLB track record. He's not serviceable away from 3B and has nearly 2000 plate appearances where he's been league average. He's got like a .556 BABIP right now. If his K:BB ratio were reversed, I'd be inclined to agree with you because that would signal a change in Beckham's approach. Instead, it just seems like all the balls he's hitting have eyes. To be honest, there's not much more a guy can do from a stats standpoint to have earned a chance, but at age 32, he had to know he was a long shot. It's just not a good decision organizationally to call him up, and I don't suspect any contender would be interested in a 32 year old scrub level veteran 3B, even if he is cheap.

Always makes it more stressful to wait till the deadline, but I suspect it's often the case multiple teams are making offers on the same players and the team trading assets away is looking for the very best offer they can get.

If the Twins really wanted Soto, they could get him for one or two middle prospects... by eating Stephen Strasburg's contract if Strasburg was willing to go along with the trade. Short of that, there's nothing the Twins have valuable enough to be a centerpiece. It's going to take 2 top 50s and probably 2 top 100s, all mid/high minors for Soto in a conventional trade. The Twins don't have anything remotely close to it. Maybe Lewis + Arraez + Miranda + Larnach + Ryan.

Buxton has a huge contract in front of him and he's an All Star caliber player, not an MVP caliber player even when he's playing. Buxton was the 4th best CF in the AL by WAR at the All Star break this year and he's close to a pace for being qualified for the 2nd time in his career. Considering his big contract, Buxton doesn't generate a ton of surplus value. The dreams of a 10 WAR season are so far fetched...

I haven't seen a lot of evidence of any pitchers being able to depress the HR/FB rate long term and analysis shows xFIP is a significantly better tool at forecasting performance than FIP. All the metrics are flawed to a degree. Maybe there's a pitcher where xFIP isn't as accurate as FIP, but there's plenty of red flag on deciding Mahle will be super effective with the Twins. Especially if the playoffs go through a homer prone ball park.

I think the Red Sox are cooked at this point. They have a negative run differential and their only shot is a Wildcard spot where they're 5 games back right now. Eovaldi is interesting to me. Maybe Vazquez. I wish Buxton was actually healthy enough to play CF every day. It would potentially open the door for JD Martinez if the Twins could shuffle some guys.

His xFIP is 4.12. His ERA is 4.48, right in line with the career spreads. He's not way better. Mahle has a very good K rate, but his walk rate is pretty poor. Home and away ERA/FIP splits are pretty extreme 5.06/3.74 for ERA and 5.11/3.52 for FIP, but his xFIP away doesn't show the same advantage as it still sits in a back end rotation arm slot at 4.16 due largely to the fact he puts way, way more balls into play away from home. Mahle is also the poster child for never allow 3rd TTO. He may be better than 5th rotation arm, but he's not somebody I would expect to be solid in the middle or better spot in a playoff rotation.

I think it's safe to call Winder's career as a starter to be likely over right now.

Twins trade Keoni Cavaco and Aaron Sabato for Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. That would be pretty ideal.

Let's be honest, Falvey has a fetish for bat only guys who could be outrun by a guy in a power wheelchair with a dead battery. Miranda, Urshela, Larnach, Arraez, Sano, Correa, Sanchez, Garlick, Celestino, Contreras... they're all well below average runners for their positions. The only quicker than average for their position guys we have are probably Gordon, Kepler and Buxton. There is very little speed on the team and it doesn't feel like there's an effort to stress base running awareness. Brian Dozier wasn't a fast guy, but heads up base running made him a positive value on the base paths. Conversely, Eduardo Escobar couldn't get a good jump on a base stealing attempt if the game was on the line. The team Base Running on Fangraphs is -13.3 and ranks 29th in MLB (worst in the AL). Texas is the best at +16.5. Top 10 is +3 or higher, bottom 10 are -3 or lower. It all adds up to the Twins coughing up probably 2 wins this year on base running, which isn't crippling, but 2 more wins would sure be nice.

Neither Miranda nor Kirilloff will allow pitchers to walk them so they'll both probably be streaky hitters and neither one of them are going to be plus defenders or will likely flash much athleticism. That said, Miranda's season has been more impressive than Kirilloff's in pure production. Since June 1, Miranda is .328/.373/.536 OPS .909 wRC+ 158 on an inflated .378 BABIP. Kirilloff's post June 17th is .290/.328/.439 OPS .767 wRC+ 116. Also on a likely inflated .326 BABIP. Statcast has both of them about the same in xWOBA this year with slightly higher average and max exit velocities for Miranda. The exit velocities (average and max) both trail extreme power hitter Nick Gordon by a fair bit so color me unimpressed. The lack of power from Kirilloff jibes with his history. He's only flashed plus power during his AAA stint this year while Miranda has shown good power at several stops along the way. TBH, Kirilloff kinda seems like the twin of Trevor Larnach. Supposedly advanced hit tool with raw power despite neither one of them flashing that power regularly and Larnach will take a walk when the pitcher insists on it. I'm not bullish on Larnach so I don't think it's surprising I'm not bullish on Kirilloff right now, either.

I'll try to remember to reserve all concerns short of a pitcher's arm spontaneously falling off.

YAAAASSSSSS, if only we could have 12 mid/back end starters, we'd definitely win the World Series. Mighty good thinkin'

He was added to the 40 man this year when he came up as a COVID replacement. That allowed him to be optioned back to AAA and removed from the 40 man without exposing him to waivers. You're entitled to your opinion that Palacios is MiLB roster filler so it doesn't matter if he gets any playing time.

You're right. Vegas has never been wrong about anything ever. Personal opinions seem awfully unwelcome to you.

Right now, today. White Sox 50% Guardians 30% Twins 20%