bean5302

I expect the feel on Sands' ceiling will be well known by mid next year. He's been good with limiting walks since his return from the IL on 7/14, but it's such a small sample size with him throwing such a tiny number of pitches. (26, 29, 50, 65). He has been more consistent at generating swinging strikes over those starts as well and he's been pounding the strike zone, too. His previous starts were sporadic on swinging strikes every other game (6%-19%)with a fairly consistent strike rate of 60% or so. The last 4 starts have all been 10%-19% swinging strike rate with an average strike rate of about 70%. It's hard to say whether the improved performance is from pitching fewer innings and seeing batters fewer times or whether or not he's actually being a lot more efficient. Just have to wait and see if the Twins keep letting him ramp up the pitch count and watch the walks. Right now, Sands probably has a ceiling of 4-5 starter and a more probable outcome of setup man in my opinion unless he's able to increase his efficiency. In his last start, even with a 68% zone rate and a 15.4% swinging strike rate, he still averaged nearly 18 pitches per inning.

Who are the Twins going to take a look at instead of Pineda? Shepherd (28)? 5.88 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 at AAA Albers (35)? 4.15 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 BB/9 at AAA Strotman (24) 3.59 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 5.1 BB/9 at AAA Ryan (25) isn't back from the Tokyo Olympics yet. Duran (23) is on the IL with a UCL strain and won't likely pitch again until at least next year. Winder (24) is shut down for the year with shoulder fatigue Barnes (25) 4.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 at AAA is already in the rotation Jax (26) 3.32 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 at AAA is already in the rotation

It's pretty simple in my opinion. Palacios is 24 and is a decent fielding shortstop who's maintained a cumulative .800 OPS throughout the entire season and 333 plate appearances now. His AA performance 2 years ago for Tampa showed strong enough peripherals with a 10% walk rate and 19% K rate and some bad luck with a .229 BABIP. Palacios is flashing plus power this year to go along with his plus base running and decent walk rate and while he's getting old for his level at 24, it's not like he's 26 or 27 and past prospect age. May - .311/.398/.478 .876 OPS June - .250/.348/.490 .838 OPS July - .221/.303/.364 .667 OPS Aug - .208/.321/.625 .946 OPS Either he's a prospect or he's not. He's rule 5 eligible and I'd be surprised if he wasn't selected in the rule 5 draft if left off the roster. Now, it's entirely possible Palacios will never pan out. His batting average is pretty ugly after all, and that 20% K rate is going to increase at MLB. It'd be better to know if the Twins are wasting shortstop talent or a 40 man roster spot when both are desperately needed. Honestly, I can't see a spot where we agree. I don't believe keeping a declining shortstop on an expiring contract playing every day in a lost season when there are two borderline, but potential MLB caliber shortstop prospects in the high minors who are both rule 5 eligible. There is no better time to look at the older borderline prospects. Gordon was in MLB until a few days ago. Riddle is blocking nobody. He's a journeyman utility player who's played 2B, 3B, SS and LF this year with a .555 OPS.

I don't see it happening and this lack of multiple conferences would be unlike any of the other top 3 sports. Baseball enjoys a lot of competition right now, though a little less in recent years, but I think this design would see an even greater loss of competition.

Nick Gordon has a stiff headwind to have any MLB career right now so I'm sure a Danny Santana career looks pretty good to him about now. Here's hoping at the very least, he can stay healthy in the personal life side of things. He's certainly been through a heck of a lot with the digestive tract issues and the bad case of COVID.

Palacios just continues to show he has nothing to prove at AA. Of course, Palacios can play shortstop in AA because the Twins have decided to move Martin to center field where he lacks the range to excel. I'm sure Palacios would be promoted except he's blocked by Nick Gordon at AAA so the Twins can get a good long look at young prospect Andrelton Simmons, our future franchise shortstop.

There are few teams I'd prefer beating than the Astros, but at least we took 2 of 3!

I'd like to hear about Varland's off speed offerings and how they're progressing. I've seen full articles dedicated to his fastball velocity, but not much in regard to his slider or change up. Sounds like he leans very heavily on his fastball and mixes in the off speed stuff later, but the off speed stuff is going to be required to have success at the MLB level. As a 3 pitch guy, all 3 of the pitches need to be good to be able to start. Still, really nice to see him continue to have success, especially considering he was such a late pick.

I'm also concerned about Arraez's knee issues at such a young age, but there are a few options for treating the issue. It doesn't have to be something which shuts him down across his career.

Kumar Rocker is an interesting discussion. Obviously huge upside, but with the also obvious elbow issue he seems to want to hide, it just doesn't look great from a physical or maturity level perspective. Rocker's options are pretty limited, but if he elects to take a year off, I'd be very concerned. His other options are to sign/play with an independent league or pitch overseas, but most of those leagues have similar seasons to MLB.

I'm not sure why there's a perception Polanco is a good defender or that Arraez is a bad one. The stats and metrics suggest they're pretty even. Polanco at shortstop is a disaster, but the Twins played that disaster out season after season so maybe they'll do it again? Moving Gordon to AAA and having him play SS there is asinine as it just logjams Palacios who's 100% earned his shot at AAA/MLB this season. This front office creates more logjams than a mill pond.

Leave him off the 40 man at this point. The Twins' front office have made their feelings on Gordon clear, now stop jerking his chain and let him get a chance someplace else.

My only concern about Balazovic is whether or not he's wearing down. I agree with the sentiment here... you don't have 25 inning scoreless streaks without "gaining traction" in AA. Having a bit of difficulty understanding why Palacios isn't in AAA at this point, but I do get the strong feeling the front office gets awfully arrogant about their position once they've written a prospect off, no matter how quickly they do so.

The Twins need 4 starting pitchers next year since the only definite rotation spot they have is Maeda. I feel their legitimate rotation options are, in order of likeliness: Ober Ryan Winder Balazovic Sands I suspect the Twins will plan to use Ober and Ryan and fill two other spots in free agency. How the Twins view their 2022 season will be formed entirely on the pitching rotation they decide upon. Verlander and Stroman = aiming for World Series. Pineda and Cueto = likely statements about how 2022 didn't go the way they were expecting and hoping on their way to 90 losses. I honestly admit in a previous topic, I think the Twins will go with Pineda and Cueto (exactly my picks).

That said... the Twins feel very much like a "Minnesota" team who plays up to or down to the level of their competition so frequently. If an opposing team lights them up, they'll score a bunch of runs, but if a Twins starter is throwing a gem, the hitters all have the sun in their eyes. Maybe a great start from a Twins pitcher is so rare the batters just get mesmerized by the special event?

Yeah, it's not uncommon for teams to claim players and then immediately DFA them to try and pass them through waivers. See our old friend Jake Reed. He may never play in another game this season as teams line up to DFA, claim, repeat. It does really feel like that's another thing the MLBPA should address.

I don't see any of the pitchers listed (or Berrios) as an ace. I wouldn't feel comfortable with any of them lining up against a top 10 pitcher in MLB.

I can agree with what you said was your primary point with there being little or no evidence Berrios hated the Twins organization and couldn't wait to leave. In regard to the quote above, if the Twins were already offering 5 / 110MM, and Berrios was countering with 5 / 130MM, I don't think he gets traded because that's too close not to negotiate (in my opinion). If it comes out the Twins were offering 6 / 105MM or something like that, I'd be inclined to put Falvey and Levine in the stocks and throw rotten tomatoes at them. My position is the Berrios ask was so far out of the realm of the Twins' comfort zone that it was apparent we weren't going to do it. How far would that have to be? I'd think 6+ years and $150MM+ would put us there and I'd want absolutely no part of that deal if I were the Twins' front office or a twins fan.

The top 50, top 100 etc prospect lists involve all speculation and guesswork. They're nice for casual fans like me so I can have a much less biased source for information and expectations, but it's not like they're hard set. For example. Baseball Prospectus had the 2015 top 10 Twins, how they ranked in the top 101 in MLB that year and how I see their current / historical mixed value. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/25324/2015-prospects-minnesota-twins-top-10-prospects/ Byron Buxton 1 in MLB - Daily MLB player Miguel Sano 14th in MLB - Borderline MLB talent Alex Meyer 32nd in MLB - Bust Kohl Stewart 54th in MLB - Bust Jose Berrios 75th in MLB - All Star Nick Gordon - Bust Lewis Thorpe - Bust Nick Burdi - Bust Jorge Polanco - All Star Stephen Gonsalves - Bust The same list from MLB.com listed: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=min Buxton - Regular Player Berrios - All Star Jay - Bust Polanco - All Star Gordon - Bust Kepler - Regular Player Stewart - Bust Meyer - Bust Gonsalves - Bust Brett-Walker II - Bust Chargois - Middle Relief? Burdi - Bust Rogers - All Star Closer Thorpe - Bust Cabbage - Bust Blankenhorn - Bust Reed - Bust Turner, Stuart - Bust Harrison, Travis - Bust Romero, Fernano - Bust The trend is obviously in favor of the lists, but they're hardly absolutes. Prospects at the top of the lists are more likely to be MLB quality and higher quality than players further down, but even players low on the lists can become studs (Taylor Rogers).

Well I sure have and I find the loss of big parts of people's lives to be emotional, even when there are mixed feelings on the change. Not wanting to stay in Minnesota but liking his experience with the Twins are not mutually exclusive. Finding out which players cry when traded is not information which generally interests me so I don't seek it out. I don't remember any player crying. I didn't hear Berrios cried until this article. Most fans would consider anything at 5+ years and $110MM+ reasonable.

Agree with the popular sentiment. Trading all the players listed above would be tantamount to a complete rebuild fire sale. Polanco and Garver would absolutely have to go as well as the list above. Each player needs to be evaluated on their own as contracts needs are determined and offers for players are reviewed. The Twins have virtually nothing solid behind the players mentioned above.

This result, in my opinion, would be utterly fantastic. I don't share your optimism the twins have 5 prospect starters who are all going to pitch to 3.25-4.00 ERAs or so over 175+ innings each by 2023.

Ever cry after the end of a bad relationship or when you moved out of a place you didn't necessarily like? Regardless of how Berrios felt about the Twins, I would have been really surprised if he wasn't moved emotionally about the relationship ending. There was a lot invested in his time with the Twins, even if the end is bittersweet. The tears don't mean much to me in regard to whether or not he actually wanted to stay with the Twins. I'm sure we'll hear rumors leak out about what the Twins were or were not offering as time ticks by. As it stands right now, I view this as Berrios' decision not to sign a deal which most fans would have considered reasonable based on the efforts to sign Buxton.

I wouldn't sign Rodriguez or Ray regardless. They're not guys who could potentially replace a top of the rotation starter. Rodriguez looks like a bad luck candidate, but I don't know as I believe in the kind of luck he's having. His barrel rate, exit velocity and hard hit rates are all better than average, but his BABIP against is .369 and he's just getting shelled, not to mention he's giving up a lot of homers. He's also been totally ineffective at stranding runners with a miserable 64% strand rate blowing his ERA totally up. Reminds me too much of Ricky Nolasco. Robbie Ray has reached back to find 2.5mph more on his fastball than he had in 2019, returning to his career peak. He's always been prone to giving up HRs and this year is benefitting from a .270 BABIP and 89.7% strand rate. He's been super inconsistent over his career and he has a propensity to struggle with a similar zone% as Francisco Liriano had. His FIP looks reasonable at 3.93, but that's not what I would want for a Berrios replacement on a long term contract because if his change in velocity and the sudden ability to throw strikes don't stick, he'll tank. Syndergaard started throwing bullpens and the Mets have announced they'll probably use him out of the bullpen if he makes it back this year. I'm assuming that's for 2 reasons. The biggest of the two is they want Syndergaard to accept the qualifying offer they're absolutely going to make to him so putting him in the bullpen will likely hurt his value. I don't think the Twins have the risk tolerance to make him a legitimate offer even if Syndergaard does decline the qualifying offer, but I don't think he will. Gausman and Stroman do look like they're going to hit free agency. Gausman has been on record as prefering to stay in San Francisco. Of the two, Stroman would be my preference.

As I recall, Molitor didn't believe Polanco was capable of playing short due to his arm, but he wasn't given a lot of choice in the matter. Molitor is on record talking about improvements in throwing and footwork Polanco had made as helpful, but it was often with the caveats it wasn't universally accepted Polanco was in the right spot at SS. Also, I'm not sure I have seen a SS worse than Polanco. Trevor Plouffe's 2011 experience at SS grades out better than Polanco's 2016 in terms of UZR/150 and fielding percentage. Polanco was more error prone than Plouffe when they were both rookies playing SS. Polanco remains, literally, the worst starting shortstop in MLB from 2016-2020 with a UZR of -25.9 over 3.900 innings. No shortstop in MLB had a worse average UZR/150 (-11.0) and played over 1,500 innings over the same span. No shortstop has played as many innings as Polanco with such a low UZR/150 since the year 2000. Polanco stands alone at the very bottom. To get him out of the bottom 5, I had to drop the innings requirement to just 1,000 innings (less than a single full season) which expanded the number of players to 151 since 2000. Polanco was still 140th of 151 at that point.