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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    The Twins could totally, probably, maybe swing that... if they threw in $16MM to cover the rest of this season's salary, plus cover next year and his $2.75MM buyout for not exercising the $14MM team option in 2023. Woof.
  2. bean5302
    Seems like a lot of low hanging fruit on the 40 man for next year. Thorpe, Smeltzer, Cave, Garlick, Astudillo, etc.
  3. bean5302
    Rooker had an OPS of .960 and an OPS+ of 163 in his first 21 plate appearances at the MLB level last year before getting hurt and people were clamoring for him to start the season on the 26 man. He played 8 games this year and people want to release him, haha. Playing Rooker every day is the best thing for the Twins and for Rooker. I really do expect the universal DH to be in the next CBA and when it happens, NL clubs are going to be very hungry for bats. If Rooker can even pull off an OPS above .750, there will be interest in him. In regard to Sano, I wonder how long of a leash the Twins will give him before pulling the plug? Even if the Twins ate his entire contract, I doubt they could find a trade partner this year and I'm sure they don't want to rely on him to provide any value next year. I'm guessing the Twins will try to trade him while eating all or the majority of his contract this offseason.
  4. bean5302
    I mean, the best news from this is Kirilloff is expected to have about an 8 week or 56 day recovery time so it shouldn't be a factor for him in 2022. Since Kirilloff remains on the 10 day IL, it does seem like the Twins are hoping for a quicker than normal recovery so he can get back onto the field this year despite the rumors his season is officially done. There are also some news the Twins may look for opportunities for Kirilloff to get some winter ball time if he's not able to make it back for the regular season. Even if he has recovered a little early, it'd be awfully unexpected for him to be ready in time for a rehab assignment while the MiLB season was still ongoing. Rough break for a guy the Twins really need to pan out.
  5. bean5302
    Shoemaker accepted his assignment to AAA when he didn't have to. It seems reasonable the Twins told him he'd be a starter and have the opportunity to work on his game with the possibility of being recalled or traded. If that's not the case, Shoemaker wouldn't have a good reason to accept an assignment and the Twins would have just released him.
  6. bean5302
    Sorry, without a link, your comment is not credible in light of the dozens of printed articles I found stating the Twins were in the bidding and had made offers, were meeting with Wheeler's agents and talking directly to Wheeler himself. In regard to the podcast... I guess I could struggle to wade through the hour long rambling babble to find the quote. Just point me to the podcast in a link. Actually, I think it's fair to concede there weren't a few more starters who were objectively better than Darvish. deGrom, Cole, Greinke, Wheeler, Lynn, Bieber, Ryu and Scherzer were all better. How much? Not a ton for most of them, but they were better. When I say "better" I'm talking about in terms of rotational position. Ace, #2, #3 #4 #5 type of style as defined by the pitcher you would most want on the mound in a 1 game playoff. Darvish's injury history is irrelevant to how good he is. It was already factored in as the only reason he didn't get $200MM+ instead of $126MM. In any case, unless you find a link to your source for Wheeler outright telling the Twins not to make any offers, this will be my last post on it. If you do find the link, I'll be happy to listen and eat crow if what you're saying is true.
  7. bean5302
    Please provide any legitimate source for Wheeler's agent telling the Twins to stop wasting their time unless it was in regard to an offer Wheeler's camp already rejected, but the Twins kept floating. If the Twins had made a 5 year / 125MM offer, Wheeler would be wearing a Twins uniform. Instead, they low-balled Wheeler relative to other offers. Darvish is a legitimate ace, but he came with (and still comes with) injury risk. He's a pitcher who can completely shut down an opposing playoff lineup. Calling him a #2 or #3 based on WAR which includes his injury lost 2018 isn't an argument made in good faith. Darvish is arguably as good as any pitcher not named deGrom from 2019-2021, you know, when he was actually pitching.
  8. bean5302
    FIP is not based on ERA and doesn't use the LOB% as a factor so the strand rate is utterly irrelevant. FIP is a tool used to create a predictive/expected ERA based on past metrics without considering defense or base running, etc. If Megill's LOB% was 0% or 100%, it would literally make no impact to his FIP. His FIP is what you might expect his ERA should be based on how many people got on base and how they reached. In regard to the FB rate, I assumed you were talking about fly ball rate, not fastball rate. My apologies, I misunderstood your intent. Well, looking at age, velocity and fastball rate, Berrios is age 27 throws his (2) fastballs at at average of 94mph and is 56% fastball. Megill is age 26 (basically) thows his (1) fastball at 95mph and has a 58% fastball rate. They're essentially the same except Megill throws a tick harder and is a year younger so I would argue the risk here is pretty similar based on your critera. I agree. There's no way in hell the Mets are trading Megill for Berrios right now and that was my point in posts above somewhere I'd expect the pre-arb pitcher the Twins could target as being David Peterson, but folks are already upset with the idea of getting Megill so I'd expect them to lose their excrement over a trade including Peterson haha
  9. bean5302
    I've never understood how fans convince themselves of this. The Twins made uncompetitive offers to Wheeler and Darvish for just two examples. Either the front office failed to anticipate what would be competitive or they weren't really expecting to sign those pitchers. If the Twins had made Wheeler a 5 / 125MM offer or Darvish a 6 / 130MM, they'd both be wearing Twins uniforms today. The only way the "player X wanted to play somewhere else" works is if your team actually makes an offer of essentially equal or higher value. As far as "value" goes, it's based on WAR, but value is not equal to different teams and that's explained when you research the metric. 1 win is a lot more valuable to a team with 89 wins than it would be to a team with 60 wins or 110 wins. The point is not to determine value for a specific team in a specific season. The intent is to determine an approximate value for a player in MLB as a whole because these metrics are used to evaluate the players themselves, not the teams.
  10. bean5302
    I'm certainly not enamored with him. If Megill was an obvious, dominant, top of the rotation starter, he'd be untouchable. The Twins would be starting that conversation with half their farm system. Like Berrios + Buxton + Lewis + Balazovic + Kirilloff for a dominant, top of the rotation starter with 6 years of team control.
  11. bean5302
    The Twins spend under the league median every year and refuse to spend when they have an obvious need and opportunity for a World Series run. The ownership is very opposed to long contracts due to risk, but they're willing to take the same annual risk across multiple short contracts which don't pan out. Couple all that with the inability the organization has at developing pitching and the Twins find themselves at the spot they're in now. I disagree the Twins cannot afford to spend $150MM. You need to spend money to make money. When the Twins put a winning product on the field, they'll get the revenue they need for the $150MM budget.
  12. bean5302
    In general, I look at each acquisition assuming they could take a step down and decline. A guy with a 4.00 ERA can easily become a guy with a 5.00 ERA for a year. Especially as they age into their mid/late 30s. It's one the reasons I almost always advocate for getting top free agents. If they take a step back, they're still valuable. If you go bargain shopping and they take a step back, you don't really even want to play them and the money is totally wasted because other teams don't want them. I view Shoemaker as a dumpster dive. He hadn't been a solid starter for the previous 4 years (2017-2020). Happ was also a bargain signing with plenty of warning signs. Colombe has a 2.70 ERA and 2.58 FIP over his past 10 appearances. Even since May 1, Colombe has a 3.33 ERA, though his FIP is 4.16. Relief pitchers can get hit pretty hard by a few bad outings.
  13. bean5302
    His FIP is 3.72 which takes into consideration to the obvious LOB luck fueled 2.63 ERA and is almost as good as Berrios, albeit in a small sample size at the MLB level. Fangraphs shows a 38.7% FB rate, not a 58.2% rate you're quoting, and Megill is generating a lot of ground balls, which is nice to see. I hadn't looked into his exit velocity allowed, but I went ahead and did that now, too. Megill is 24th out of 461 in average exit velocity for pitchers with more than 50 batted ball events this year at 89.5mph. This low exit velocity and low barrel rate along with the high ground ball rate could help explain the lack of line drives allowed. That said, I did notice that even though Megill hasn't been allowing hitters to barrel up the ball well against him, he has a hard hit percentage is higher than average so I guess you could look at the hard hit percentage standalone and call that a red flag. I agree 94.6mph is below 95.0mph on his average fastball, though it feels a little disingenuous to be so concerned over 0.4mph. Megill is throwing strikes, not giving up a ton of hits and striking guys out. His success at the MLB level has followed solid production from the minors with no real hiccups and a fast promotion rate. Signs point to Megill potentially being better than Jose Berrios and the Mets have him under control for 6 years.
  14. bean5302
    Can't disagree with Balazovic being promoted at this point. He's got nothing left to prove in AA. Even if the Twins were having him work on something, he's clearly not being challenged any longer.
  15. bean5302
    Thorpe was never the same after TJ. Lost a couple mph and he was a B- or C+ prospect before he tore the UCL. MLB hitters scorched his pitches and Thorpe has hardly been impressive in the minors after 2018. I think it was a big mistake to keep Thorpe on the roster instead of Tyler Wells this past offseason. Since Dobnak is under contract for a couple more years, I can't see the Twins ditching him without some more opportunities.
  16. bean5302
    I don't see the Mets giving Megill up as part of a Berrios trade. I'm not seeing any red flags in Megill's performance, he's team controlled for years and years and right now his results are arguably already on par with Berrios. Megill was drafted out of college and rose through the ranks fast as this is only his 2nd full season in their system and he's already pitching well at the MLB level. If the Twins are being reasonable, the pre-arb type of pitcher you get in return for Berrios is more like a David Peterson along with Mauricio and Allen.
  17. bean5302
    I like your field of stuffed strawmen. Very rustic!
  18. bean5302
    San Diego is small market and considering exceeding the luxury tax this year. Kansas City and Baltimore had a payrolls of $153MM and $167MM in 2017. The Twins could spend, the ownership is just too risk averse.
  19. bean5302
    Probably depends on how much the Twins think of Miguel Sano and Brent Rooker. I'd expect the Twins to move Sano to DH and Kiriloff to 1B. Rooker will probably get a long look at DH and Sano will be used as PH/DH for the rest of the season. The Twins' offense is definitely going to be a lot less potent without Cruz, unfortunately.
  20. bean5302
    Mitch Garver is ranked 10th of 45 catchers in MLB with 250+ innings this year in wild pitches. Meaning 35 other catchers have allowed more wild pitches than Mitch Garver. Garver's ranking on wild pitches is consistently good and he has allowed fewer wild pitches relative to his peers than he has allowed passed balls (where he's about average). If you have data, please feel free to present it.
  21. bean5302
    You're free to find some statistics over the past couple years to suggest he's bad if you'd like to counter my argument with something other than your personal eye test. Based on what I've seen, you're not going to find much luck looking for the data to support your opinion in pitch framing, error rate, passed balls, wild pitches or caught stealing percentage. I've seen Garver make some pretty awful plays so I can understand where your opinion may have formed, but the assumption the rest of the starting catchers out there are better doesn't seem to be reflected in really any of the data over the past couple years.
  22. bean5302
    Among the 45 catchers in MLB with more than 250 innings at the position this year, Garver is 18th (better than average) in passed balls with 2. The median is 3 and the bottom 5 ranked catchers have all allowed at least 7 passed balls each. Among the same group of 45 catchers, Garver is ranked 10th (top quartile) with 12. The median is 17.5. The bottom 5 have all allowed at least 34. I've noticed bashing Garver's defense seems to be a pretty popular thing in the forums; however, the data doesn't support the hate. He's not the best catcher to ever put on gear, but he's shaped himself into a solid backstop.
  23. bean5302
    I think it's important to evaluate what contracts look like these days. "Ace" is a term I think most people feel should be used with elite pitchers in terms of single game value. Pitchers who routinely show ERAs in the 2s or very low 3s, "Aces" are in the 5+ years and $30MM+ AAV. For a young "ace" contract these days consider a few of these. 2013 = Felix Hernandez 7 years $175MM (AAV 25MM) 2013 = Justin Verlander 7-8 years $180MM-202MM (AAV 25-26MM) 2013 = Clayton Kershaw 7 years $210MM (AAV 30MM) 2014 = Jon Lester 6-7 years $155MM-170MM (AAV 24-26MM) 2015 = Zack Greincke 6 years $206MM (AAV 34MM) 2015 = Max Scherzer 7 years $210MM (AAV 30MM) 2018 = Yu Darvish 6 years $126MM (AAV 21MM) 2019 = DeGrom 5 years $138MM (AAV 28MM) 2020 = Stephen Strasburg 7 years $245MM (AAV 35MM) 2020 = Gerrit Cole 9 years $324MM (AAV 36MM) 5 years $125MM is nowhere near typical "ace" money. Then again, we really don't have a good idea what Berrios is asking in the first place, and we also have no clue what the Twins have been countering with. Berrios will probably bring 5 years and $125MM on the open market as a free agent. Signing now, before he becomes a free agent, transfers a fair bit of risk to the Twins and the expectation is extensions generally come with a bit of a discount built in for that reason. I'd think 5 years $115MM or 6 years $130MM would be reasonable. Anything over 5 years and $125MM feels foolhardy.
  24. bean5302
    Higher meaning more likely to contribute to the Twins winning a World Series on an annual basis. I believe players who are likely to generate higher fWAR and bWAR on an annual basis are more likely to contribute to a team's success. I'd wager you'd be correct in your assertion the National (and American) Leagues have valued perceived defensive contributions when choosing a shortstop for more cumulative years than the player performance at the plate over the past 100 years. I would be very surprised to see evidence backing that up over the past decade, though. I give you Pedro Florimon as a good example. Despite being an excellent defensive shortstop, he hasn't had a starting shortstop job in MLB since the Twins moved on from him after 2014. Florimon wasn't even a black hole at the plate owning a .732 OPS in his last 3 seasons at the MLB level (which ended in 2018). Right now, Florimon sits at San Diego's AAA affiliate while a poor defensive shortstop by the name of Fernando Tatis, Jr. is enjoying his first year of a 13 year $330MM contract on San Diego's MLB roster as a starter. Based on all accounts I've read, Simmons was not signed by Minnesota to be a defense only SS, btw. He has a career .267 average (since you used that statistic) and was expected to be a league average-ish bat for the Twins.
  25. bean5302
    There will be a lot of FA shortstops to choose from for 2022. I'd hope the Twins would aim a little higher than Simmons if they're looking to compete.
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