bean5302

If we're nitpicking... I know Bundy isn't people's favorite pitcher around here, but it's rough when you give him all the earned runs the Rangers pitching staff allowed, too. Earning 3 earned runs in a 2-1 win smacks of malice. LOL

Cole Sands struggles with control. I was at the aforementioned game where Sands went 3 innings against the Blue Jays and it always felt like Sands was just on the edge of getting annihilated, frequently missing his spots by wide margins. Maybe Sands can be a long reliever, but I'm not sold on his MLB level skills in longer outings. Sands average fastball went from 91mph to 93mph when he was given 1 inning appearances.

Bundy's pitch counts from beginning of the year to current. 67, 71, 79, 94, 74, 54, 85, 95, 67, 66, 107, 60, 83, 58, 77, 88, 77, 78, 65, 65, 71. Bundy's been pulled from games where he'd allowed 0-1 runs anywhere from 65 to 107 pitches. Doesn't seem like a pitch count limit to me.

Where would they market when nobody cares about going to the Twins game? LOL. There are so many great options to get into the game for individuals, families, special occasions, with combinations of food or drink, etc. The truth is, nobody even bothers to look which says a lot about the interest level in the Twins.

I'd go with: Austin Martin, Aaron Sabato, Brooks Lee Brent Headrick, Sean Mooney, Marco Raya, Blayne Enlow

I'd cut him today if the Twins needed a spot. Players in AAA will be stepping well down in competition level at the AFL so even if Strotman was successful there, it wouldn't really give the Twins any valuable information, I wouldn't think?

The Twins do have a great option for avoiding the schedule that as well. The Monthly Twins Pass is $60. Gets people into any/all games that month. Not sure how successful it's been, though.

Love to watch Arraez's plate appearances. Something's always going to happen, and often, it's something good or great. Looking at that chart, Larnach's whiff rate is scary considering his EV, but Larnach has drawn a fair number of walks, too. I'm hoping Larnach's early year successes against the slider and sinker weren't just SSS mirage, but when I isolate his performance against the slider, he crushed it in April and then started struggling after that.

Oh really? As a season ticket holder, my experience is very different than your perspective. I've gone to many games solo because I couldn't give my extra seat away. I had to ask nearly a dozen people if they wanted my seats free tonight as I have other obligations. Also speaking as a season ticket holder, the stadium was 1/3 to 1/4 full for the first 2 months of the season, even on nice weather days and on weekends, and it was absolutely dead from an ambiance perspective as a result. It hasn't been until recently the stadium has been energetic. The Twins were selling $5 seats to games and it was literally cheaper to get seats for the Twins than the Saints. So, from my personal observations as a season ticket holder who's attended many games this year, it is hard to get people to go to the game.

No. He's a rookie and there's plenty of reason to question whether or not he's playing a little above his head right now.

The Twins have been playing a little better recently. The sweep of KC was desperately needed, though taking shots at other teams hardly feels warranted considering the Twins wouldn't make the expanded playoffs if the season ended now. They're still 2 teams behind on the Wildcard. I think this topic is dead on. Staying close (honestly, gaining ground) is important for the remainder of the month.

Okay, lets move the goalposts again since you've lost every single initial argument on the original subject of this debate string and the strawmen you created to avoid the original subject of debate (whether or not starters show a major drop off in performance TTO) It's not that hard to admit that. In an average game with an average starter pitching their average game, and an average reliever, the average reliever will be better on their FTO than the starter would be on their TTO. But that rarely actually happens. Each game is different. Sometimes the starter is dominating. Sometimes they're struggling. Sometimes the relievers aren't average or the average ones are worn out and you're calling the numbers of your Duffey's and Pagan's to come in and save the day. Original goalpost - Starters have a major decline on their TTO. Status? Proven False. Next goalpost - Almost nobody in baseball pitches 6+ innings. Status? Proven False. Next goalpost - The Twins would allow a pitcher who is pitching well to pitch deep. Status? Proven False. Next goalpost - The Twins would allow a front line starter to pitch deep. Status? Proven False. Next goalpost - Well, Sonny Gray isn't a front line starter because he's hasn't been pitching well lately. Status? Proven False. Next goalpost - Well, only elite pitchers are allowed to pitch 6+ innings. Status? Proven False. There are 126 pitchers in MLB who have started games and have 70+ innings pitched without having a significant portion of their games as relievers. This is their "average" not their maximum. (99) 79% average at least 5.1 innings per game. (66) 53% average at least 5.2 innings per game. (34) 27% average at least 6.0 innings per game. Literally half of all starting pitchers in MLB average at least 5.2 innings per start, but yes, only elite pitchers like Johnny Cueto and hard core durability machines like Yu Darvish average at least more than 6.0 innings per start. In any case, since no matter how many examples you're given, you'll continue to be unreasonable, I'm out of this farse now.

It's defense and base running related. First base has a negative defensive value in general, Miranda has mostly played first, and not very well. When Miranda has played 3B, he's actually right about league average in a very small sample size. If Miranda was a full time 3B and his defensive value (BIS DRS for bWAR and UZR for fWAR), Miranda would probably be around 2.0 bWAR/fWAR right now. Basically, 3B is worth +2.5 runs for Fangraphs and 2.0 runs for Baseball Reference and Miranda's been neutral at the position. 1B is worth -12.5 runs for Fangraphs and -9.5 runs for Baseball Reference. The net spread ranges from 11.5 to 15.0 runs in a full season between 3B and 1B. Miranda has 1/4 of a season at 1B so he's been hit with -3 to -4 runs by playing 1B instead of 3B. In addition, Miranda hasn't played 1B very well by Baseball Reference's standard (BIS Defensive Runs Saved) at -3 so far vs. neutral at 3B. The net spread for bWAR is -6 runs defensively vs. where he'd be if he exclusively played 3B and that's 0.6 bWAR. Base running costs him another run for bWAR for a total hit to WAR of 0.7. Something about like that anyway. Do keep in mind he's only started about 65 games this year. In a full season at 3B, he's pretty close to a 5 WAR pace right now.

Sounds like the Twins might be getting ready to call some guys up and they need some MiLB roster filler.

Me: FTO is better than STO is better than TTO, but it doesn't make a huge difference and ERA is a terrible way of looking at it because of inherited base runners being allowed to score and FIP is a little sketchy because pitcher's get yanked quickly when they'd normally be able to record a couple more outs and pitch out of the jam. You: FTO is better than STO is better than TTO and there are a whole bunch of metrics that prove it. Me: <slaps forehead> Yes. Like I said... 4.23 vs. 4.10. Who cares? That 0.13 xFIP is the reason to yank guys who could go another 1-3 innings? That's the reason? Because they'll give up 1 additional run per 70 additional innings pitched? I'd be happy to trade 3 earned runs this year for a boost to our starter's WAR/innings by 20-60% Starters earn their spot on the team by starting games, not opening games. If Falvey signed "openers" for the money he's spending on Gray and Bundy, it's just another strike against his philosophy this year.

The FTO/STO/TTO (first time through the order, second time through the order, third time through the order) logic is garbage. A pitcher gets into the TTO. They're pitching a great game and the manager lets the pitcher come back out for the top of the 7th. The pitcher gives up a walk on a bad ball 4 call and a bloop hit. The manager decides they've seen enough since they've already had the bullpen warming up and they pull the starter. The starter's FIP is now inflated because he wasn't allowed to get the outs for the inning. and The middle reliever comes in, gives up a leadoff double which scores 2 and then gets the rest of the outs recorded to end the inning. Now the starter's ERA gets blown up too. This is why TTO ERA is a crap stat and FIP is sketchy. This is the MLB median for xFIP in 2022 based on Fangraphs Split Leaderboards. FTO = xFIP 3.91 STO = xFIP 4.10 TTO = xFIP 4.27 TTO is worse, but there's less difference in TTO vs STO than STO and FTO.

When I look deep into Balazovic's numbers, he wasn't generating a ton of swinging strikes. 40 strikes total, with well under half coming from swinging and looking combined which suggests a lot of balls being fouled off. In my experience, at bats with tons of foul balls often end in strikeouts or home runs. Considering just how awful Balazovic has been this year, I'm guarded in any optimism, but it's hard to believe some of Balazovic's struggles haven't been mental. Here's hoping he can build on the performance and confidence inspires better results. Woods-Richardson moving on up to AAA is exciting. I'm really interested to see how his stuff plays against more experienced batters who generally take more professional at bats than lower in the minors. Here's hoping Woods-Richardson proves his mettle quickly in St. Paul. It's been quite the whirlwind for him between all the trades, downtime and the Olympics. I bet he can practically taste his first MLB start.

Fangraphs 2022 - https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&q=julien Click on the little black note/letter/clipboard icon to the right of his name for the report. Click on his name for his page and you can see his rated tools above his stats. MLB 2022 - https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/edouard-julien-666397 Prospects Live 2021 - https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2021/4/3/minnesota-twins-2021-prospect-rankings Takes a second to load, but scroll all the way down to Julien and click on the blue clipboard icon to the left of his name to expand his scouting report. There are 3 I found quick. He's graded as a 40 run/field type of guy. Scouts tend to repeat the same numbers and they can certainly be off, but right now, it's universal on him. I think Fangraphs had an article where they talked about him recently as well where they note even Julien knows his value is in the bat.

It's a tough one between Miranda and Duran, but I'd take Miranda as of this point. Joe Ryan is well behind in my opinion.

Oh, I got it. The Twins let "good" pitchers pitch, not pitchers who are pitching well. That makes sense. Not. Maybe the Twins should let pitchers who are pitching well keep pitching... you know, like everybody else in baseball history? Date Opp IP TBF R ER HR K/9 BB/9 BABIP EV ERA FIP xFIP WHIP 8/13/2022 @LAA 5.0 19 0 0 0 1.8 1.8 0.125 76.4 0.00 3.91 6.57 0.60 8/6/2022 TOR 4.0 18 2 2 1 13.5 2.25 0.400 96.4 4.50 4.11 2.34 1.50 7/31/2022 @SDP 5.0 19 3 3 1 5.4 0 0.200 89 5.40 4.51 4.28 0.80 7/26/2022 @MIL 4.0 21 5 5 2 11.25 4.5 0.417 86.4 11.25 8.61 5.07 2.25 7/16/2022 CHW 5.1 21 3 3 0 5.06 1.69 0.294 88.9 5.06 2.55 5.04 1.13 7/10/2022 @TEX 5.0 22 4 4 0 7.2 3.6 0.375 93.1 7.20 2.71 3.60 1.60 7/4/2022 @CHW 5.0 18 1 1 1 10.8 1.8 0.200 94.4 1.80 3.91 2.49 0.80 6/29/2022 @CLE 5.0 21 3 2 0 1.8 1.8 0.316 92.2 3.60 3.31 6.27 1.40 6/24/2022 COL 6.0 23 1 1 0 3 3 0.211 89.4 1.50 3.45 5.91 1.00 6/18/2022 @ARI 8.0 28 1 1 0 7.88 0 0.190 87.2 1.13 1.36 3.02 0.50 6/9/2022 NYY 4.0 18 4 4 2 2.25 2.25 0.214 93.5 9.00 9.86 6.69 1.50 6/4/2022 @TOR 2.1 17 6 5 2 7.71 3.86 0.500 95.3 19.29 13.83 7.12 3.86 5/30/2022 @DET 6.0 28 4 4 1 4.5 0 0.348 90.1 6.00 4.78 4.58 1.50 5/25/2022 DET 5.2 23 1 1 1 9.53 1.59 0.267 85.1 1.59 3.82 3.35 1.06 5/17/2022 @OAK 3.0 13 0 0 0 9 6 0.250 84 0.00 3.11 5.08 1.33 5/4/2022 @BAL 3.2 23 9 9 2 7.36 4.91 0.563 93.4 22.09 10.20 5.93 3.55 4/29/2022 @TBR 6.0 26 6 6 2 10.5 3 0.333 85.3 9.00 6.11 3.26 1.50 4/23/2022 CHW 5.0 19 0 0 0 7.2 0 0.267 85.4 0.00 1.51 2.99 0.80 4/18/2022 @BOS 5.1 21 1 1 0 10.13 0 0.333 96.2 1.69 0.86 1.97 0.94 4/11/2022 SEA 5.0 18 0 0 0 3.6 1.8 0.067 83.5 0.00 2.91 4.98 0.40

MLB owners tried to directly tie compensation to fWAR themselves this past CBA. Owners heavily value WAR because front offices heavily value WAR. Article from 2019 with quotes from the GMs of the Twins, A's, Giants, Phillies, Blue Jays, D-Backs all affirming the use of WAR as their primary evaluation tool. https://www.mlb.com/news/war-embraced-by-mlb-front-offices-c303484670 Aside from that, if we go to an older value stat, what teams want to sign a starter who can't go 130+ innings, even these days? A starter is not getting top money averaging 4-5 innings per start and 120 innings per year. Archer is on pace for 120 innings in 30 starts. I'll be honest, Archer's peripherals early in the season said trotting him out there again was playing with fire... but if he averaged 5 innings, at least he's at 150 on the season. Bundy is on pace for 150 innings in 30 starts. If Bundy averaged 6 innings, he'd be on track for 180 innings. That's major value added. Gray is on pace for 120 innings in 24 starts. If Gray averages 6 innings, now it's 144 innings, and he's certainly pitched well enough to get the opportunity to go later. Even a mediocre pitcher who can eat innings will find themselves with an MLB contract.

When a player comes out and says things critical of a management philosophy like this publicly, it's can signal a really bad atmosphere. These pitchers aren't stupid. They know their free agent contracts are going to be based on WAR and they don't generate any WAR when they're getting yanked after 4-5 innings. The Twins are hurting these player's careers.

This was the reason Nelson Cruz got Joe Ryan in the first place. Tampa Bay isn't exactly inept at developing pitching and they knew Ryan's MLB ceiling was limited even with his great fastball if his secondary offerings didn't improve. The Twins won the Cruz trade no matter how you look at it, but if Ryan cannot improve his secondaries, he'll be stuck as a #4-5 guy for his career. Still a steal for a few months of Cruz and what will at least amount to a nice MLB career like a Nick Blackburn.

It aged just fine. I'll take 2-1/2 months of track record on Badelli making the quick hook on Gray over a single game. Maybe the Twins have changed their philosophy? It's possible.

fWAR shows 1.0 and 0.6 while bWAR shows 0.0 and 0.2, respectively. That said, the Twins haven't done Bundy or Archer many favors by allowing them to accumulate WAR. The only reason starters provide so much more value than relievers is innings. The fact starters are expected to go TTO and Baldelli almost always pulls them before then means the Twins have chained Bundy and Archer's WAR production significantly. No innings = no WAR. When it comes to calculating true value, I don't think the $8MM per WAR calculation is any good at all. It doesn't reflect true contributions to the team and it doesn't reflect what the team was hoping to buy. Teams have been trying to buy WAR closer to $6MM historically and a starting pitcher producing 2.0 WAR is just treading water in terms of actual team contributions. A typical team needs about 90 wins to make the playoffs. That's about 45 WAR. Starting Position Players - 9 at 2.0 WAR Starting Rotation Players - 5 at 2.0 WAR Bullpen Players - 8 at 0.5 WAR Utility Players - 4 at 0.8 WAR Injury Replacements - 10.0 WAR Less than that, and the team is short on WAR to make the playoffs and another player has to carry the load. A starting pitcher who can't get to about 2 WAR on the season is a net negative on a team's playoff chances, which is why signing those 1.0 WAR types of players is a waste of money. I think Bundy's ERA and WAR would both be quite a bit better if he hadn't gotten the early hook all the time. There have been many, many games this year he should have trotted back out for another inning or 3.