bean5302

Even better, the Twins could move Byron Buxton to the 60 day IL permanently so TwinsDaily fans can go back to speculating how Buxton would be OPS'ing 5.000 if only he were healthy! Every time Buxton has a cold week, it's because his knee isn't right yet and the calls for the IL come out. Then, inevitably, Buxton goes on a huge tear like when he hit 6 HRs in 6 games after the last calls for his trip to the IL and suddenly, all is right with the world. It appears a cold week has happened again so Buxton's <insert injury here> isn't 100% and you can tell so he should just go to the 10-day IL and get it fixed.

I included round 3 so you concern seems to be round 4+? I don't wonder that at all. 30 teams scout virtually every top player (physical attributes and performance) as they come up through middle/high school. Even if a scout believed they saw a huge potential, that talent would have to be refined or all the rest of the teams would be seeing the performance and everybody would know about the player. In addition, the idea a single scout from a single team would see the talent (like the movie Trouble with the Curve) is unlikely. There would be a handful of the "some teams" better scouts who'd be expected to see it, too. Passing on early round drafts with the hopes nobody else noticed the elite player hiding in the rough is way risky. Plus, drafting the player early would allow the team to go way over-slot further down the line. That's a technique the Falvey led Twins have employed.

Personally, I think you're too optimistic on Jeffers. First, 13pts below average on wRC+ is very significant Second, using "mean" vs. "median" is misleading because there are backups and AAA injury replacement guys skewing numbers at the bottom. Jeffers might be only 13pts below average, but he's 21pts below median (for 31 catchers with 130+ plate appearances) in wRC+. Jeffers is 70pts below median in OPS. That's ballpark-ish 2 WAR over a 150 games played. Third, Jeffers struggles at the plate date back through last year, where he had a wRC+ of 82 in a fairly significant 293 PA (right in line with what he's rocking today). In total, Jeffers has a wRC+ of 85 across 520 career plate appearances in 3 years. Jeffers has been consistently poor at the plate and that's not a small sample size anymore. It's not absolutely definitive by any means, but it's fair reason to temper expectations. Fourth, there are many players who never perform up to their metrics for various reasons. From players who only use 1/2 the field, to players impossibly weak against certain pitches or players who maybe just psyche themselves out in high stress situations. It goes that way for hitters and pitchers. Fifth, Jeffers is an adequate defensive catcher. He's middle of the road so while he has positional value, his defense shouldn't keep him starting if his bat doesn't play. He's on pace for about 1.5 fWAR this year as the primary catcher. That's not getting it done... and he didn't get it done last year, either.

I agree completely with this take. The trade of Petty could wind up being a monumental mistake and I absolutely hated it when we traded him for Gray since I didn't think there was really anybody in the Twins' system with the potential upside of Petty. Speaking of Petty... his last 5 games are pretty impressive. 2.45 ERA (2.44 FIP), 9.82 K/9 (28.2%), 2.45 BB/9 (7%), 0.93 WHIP. He's not giving up hits, he's not walking too many, he's striking out quite a few. In his first year of professional experience out of high school, that's about all you can ask for.

humor, irony

A delusional exercise by an unrealistic fan base is what it looks like.

I feel like that may depend on the height of the catcher. A shorter catcher won't have to lower their stance to get the lower zone calls and a tall catcher won't have as much difficulty framing the high strike. At least that's what I saw when I looked at Mauer and other catchers years ago.

Catcher framing is a real stat. There's a lot of noise in it so it takes a pretty large sample size for it to be reliable (like seemingly a lot of defensive stats), but it's based on solid principles and value. It's also fairly repeatable meaning catchers who are good framers continue to be good framers for the most part. The value of balls and strikes is obvious. Here is the median OPS for batters in fangraphs' splits tool this year through the first two pitches. 1-0 = .811 0-1 = .610 1-1 = .647 0-2 = .463 2-0 = .945 The value of the strike or ball can be quantified in terms of the likelihood runs are produced. It's boring, meticulous spreadsheet and database work, but the principles behind determining how much a stolen strike or accidental ball call is solid.

I don't know. It's a concern to me that an "A" grade might be unachievable with my grading system, but analysis and write up work like this takes hours so it's not really feasible for me to do this for 29 other teams. That said, rounds 1-3 for Falvey's front office over the past 5 drafts seem to be short on quality regular players as of today, but still with some potential. The C grade as of now seems fair.

Except Urshela might not net much at all. I honestly expect Urshela will non-tendered at the end of the season rather than get a salary at $9+ MM in his 3rd arbitration year. He's rocking 0.1 fWAR and 0.5 bWAR right now with a wRC+ 100 and OPS+ 102. That's not the kind of help contenders are clamoring for.

This article took a cheap shot at Garver, comparing him to Sanchez as a bad catcher. Jeffers' pitch framing was similar to Garver's pitch framing, Jeffers was a little better. The combination of passed balls and wild pitches was similar to Garver. The caught stealing percentage was similar to Garver. Jeffers is not a plus defensive catcher. He's middle of the road. That's not bad or anything, but he's no leap forward over Garver when the two are behind the plate.

Are you talking about the pre-2021 prospects list for Tampa Bay where Strotman was listed as 17th and Ryan at 18th? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-62-prospects-tampa-bay-rays/ Neither Ryan nor Strotman were top prospects at the beginning of the year, but Ryan had a significantly more impressive season with a lot more attention focused on him than Strotman. By the trade deadline, Ryan had jumped quite a bit where he slotted into the Twins' top 10, close to top 5 immediately vs. Strotman being a lateral transfer at 16th and falling from there.

I am not bullish on Larnach and I was pretty critical of his projectability last year. But, the fact is he made huge strides against one of the most popular breaking pitches in the game which he was lost against last year, the slider. He's still been nearly useless against changeups, but there is some minor movement forward on that one too. I'll give credit where it's due and that's the reason he got a little bump up.

Garver was just as good as Jeffers defensively. A little better at controlling the run game, about equal at passed balls/wild pitches, error rate and a little worse at pitch framing. This narrative of Jeffers being a plus defensive catcher in the face of evidence is just so.... homerville.

Beyond round 3, it's a crapshoot. Those players rarely make MLB and aren't expected to make it. Scouts can see hints of great things, but the likelihood of those players working out is remote or they'd be drafted much higher. Guys in the 4th round have seen hundreds of players picked before them and all 30 teams pass again and again and again. If a player in the later rounds makes the big show, it's player development and coaching working magic, not the draft scouting team.

Me winning the lottery without playing is more realistic than the Twins signing Correa to a long term contract.

Polanco Arraez Kepler Correa Buxton Gray Paddack That's a full list, in order, of players on the Twins who might be considered "veterans" and have any significant trade value on Baseballtradevalues.com Miguel Sano? If he's back on the field with enough time to prove he's healthy prior to the trade deadline, he'd have to absolutely rake to attract even a nibble, and even then, the Twins would have to eat his contract entirely to get anything at all. Keep in mind, this isn't like the good 'ol days when players could be traded after the deadline subject to clearing waivers. Sano will have a maximum of 2 weeks to prove he's not washed up. Sano would have to go to a contender who need help at DH or 1B which is all of about 5 teams... only 3 of which are outside our division. Astros - 1B, Cardinals - DH, White Sox - DH, Dodgers - DH, Guardians - DH. Sano being traded seems very far fetched right now.

Towards the end of last year, I decided to evaluate Falvey's draft record at the time. As I noted, it was a work in progress and there has been quite a bit of shifting around this year. I postulated this year would be a critical year for Falvey's future with the Twins as fans, and I'm sure owners, were waiting with bated breath for the pitchers of the future to arrive and the high round draft choices to prove their mettle, advance through the system, and prove the front office's methodology. To paraphrase my previous blog: Falvey has shown a tendency to draft one tool (power) position players in the high rounds and they weren't particularly successful. eg. Sabato, Wallner, Rooker and he's had very little success in early round pitchers developing and moving up through the system. Methodology: Link to previous blog: So how have things graded out this year? There's definitely been a fair bit of movement and some of the players are no longer in the organization. Rooker was traded to San Diego as part of the Rogers deal and Petty was moved to the Reds for Sonny Gray. Landon Leach was released by Ft. Myers and signed by the Braves' organization. 2017 Player Grade MLB Draft # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perf. Promo Spd Projection 1st Royce Lewis B 5 1 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par High School 22 MLB A C B CBA Brent Rooker* D 50 35 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive College 27 AAA A F C 2nd Landon Leach* D 101 37 37-67 (Rnd2) Reach College 22 A- D F D 3rd Blayne Enlow D 29 76 76-105 (Rnd3) Steal High School 23 AA F D D 2018 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Trevor Larnach B 26 20 1-30 (Rnd1) On Par College 25 MLB B B B 2nd Ryan Jeffers C >200 59 44-78 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 24 MLB D A D 3rd Forfeit for Lynn 1yr N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2019 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Keoni Cavaco F 28 13 1-30 (Rnd1) Aggressive High School 21 A- C F F CBA Matt Wallner B 60 39 31-41 (CBA) Aggressive College 24 AA B C C 2nd Matt Canterino C 46 54 42-69 (Rnd2) On Par College 24 AA C C D CBB Forefeit (to trade Hughes) F Total Failure N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Spencer Steer A >200 90 79-107 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 24 AAA A C B 2020 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Aaron Sabato D 41 27 1-29 (Rnd1) Reach College 23 A+ D D F 2nd Alerick Soularie D 105 59 38-60 (Rnd2) Huge Reach College 22 A+ D C F CBB Forefit in Maeda Trade N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3rd Forefit for Donaldson N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2021 Player Grade MLB Draft Proj # Actual Draft # Selection Range Analysis Draft Age Age Level Last Perform Promo Spd Projection 1st Chase Petty* A 27 26 1-29 (Rnd1) On Par High School 19 A- B A B CBA Noah Miller B 62 36 31-36 (CBA) Aggressive High School 19 A- B A C 2nd Steve Hajjar C 100 61 37-63 (Rnd2) Reach College 21 A- B C C 3rd Cade Povich A >250 98 72-101 (Rnd3) Huge Reach College 22 A+ A A B Upward movers: Royce Lewis - C to B. While Lewis' performance blew away all expectations and was well worthy of an A grade here, it feels like there's been confirmation he's the next Buxton in regard to injuries. Lewis' injury history is no longer something which can be attributed solely to luck and the expectations on how much value he can add to a team should be significantly tempered as a result. Landon Leach - F to D. Atlanta's coaches have clearly done something here. Leach's K rate is about the same, but his walk rate has absolutely plummeted. Leach has turned in mostly solid starts this year for Atlanta's low A team with a couple clunkers disguising how effective Leach has actually been. This is a positive for Falvey's draft, but a potential big negative for the development team. Based on his age and experience in the MiLB system, Leach's results this year 4.04 ERA, 4.29 xFIP are hardly worth praise, but the absolutely massive leap forward is worth not completely writing him off. Trevor Larnach - C to B. Larnach's struggles to hit basically anything other than a 4-seam fastball resulted in his performance, and my expectations, dropping like a stone. This year, Larnach started off fairly hot again and his wRC+ of 114 is sustainable for a bat first corner outfielder now that he's picked up a little extra speed as well. I'm going to ignore his huge slump over the last month, and especially last couple of weeks and hope it's luck related rather than a repeat of last season. Matt Wallner - D to B. Wallner didn't impress me last year. As a 23 year old college hitter in an A+ league with only a power tool offset by poor plate discipline, I wasn't confident in his ability to take his game up the ladder. Wallner performed well in the Arizona Fall League, but I give almost zero value to performances in the AFL so coming into this year, I didn't expect a change. That said, Wallner has raked in AA, and now we're getting somewhere. Now age 24 and the mulligan of 2020's lost season fading, Wallner has delivered at the plate and significantly improved his game as well. Wallner's walk rate has jumped from a weak 9.5% (for a high K rate power hitter) to an impressive 17.1%. That's night and day. That's projectable. His OBP has also skyrocketed 54pts to .404 in a much, much harder league this year. Want more good news? He's only gotten better as the season has marched on. Since May 1, Wallner's OPS has been 1.026. His BB rate has increased slightly to 17.5% and even better, his K rate has declined a bit to 31.6% over that span. While the BABIP might have a bit to do with his .304 average, his performance isn't all HRs. Wallner has more 2B's than HR's since the beginning of May as well. Consider me much more interested in this guy's future. Spencer Steer - C to A. Scouting reports on Steer's defense were clear he wasn't going to be a shortstop and an unimpressive season at the plate in AA last year after raking in A+ ball led me to drop expectations. Steer's walk rate dropped by over 50% and his strikeout rate nearly doubled from A+ to AA while his OPS dropped from .911 to .774. OOffffda. Lots of players cannot make the transition from low minors to the high minors. A+ to AA is the biggest step in baseball competition level, in my opinion. Steer has reclaimed a bit of walk rate, dropped the strikeouts quite a bit and crushed the baseball, earning a promotion to AAA where he continues to rake. While his BB rate is too low for a power hitter (9%-ish), it does seem like "power hitter" is an apt term for Steer. It's possible Steer can make the transition to being a quality MLB player. As a 3rd rounder, that's an A. Noah Miller - C to B. Miller's performance last year was fine. He didn't light the world on fire in rookie ball with little pop .238/.316/.369 wRC+ 85, but as an 18 year old high school draft pick, even holding his own against professional players half way through their season and playing for a couple weeks was good enough. Miller's scouting reports show tough to grade potential with mediocre athleticism for a middle infielder, but he's credited with a high baseball IQ and good instincts which would offset it. That may be best evidenced by Miller stealing 13/15 on the basepaths this year. Miller focused on building core strength this offseason, but no power improvements are to be seen yet. That said, Miller's plate discipline has taken a major step forward with his promotion to A- league ball and that's kept him performing at the plate despite being utterly pop-less this year. Miller's .239/.378/.325 is good for a wRC+ of 114 in the low offense league. This is Miller's first full season of professional baseball and his excellent fielding percentage of .988 at shortstop practically brings a tear to my eye after watching seemingly every Twins SS prospect for the past decade boot baseballs like like they were playing soccer out there... If Miller can develop a little more pop or pick that average up, we could have a legitimate shortstop in the making. Cade Povich - D to A. Povich hadn't pitched at all last year at the time of my grading, and considering he was a college signing who I classified as a huge reach, I graded it harshly. Povich has acquitted Falvey's draft strategy greatly this year. With a 12.8 K/9 and an acceptable 3.2 BB/9, Povich has put up a 3.38 ERA in not Low-A, but High-A. Povich saw 2 innings in Rookie ball and then only 8 innings in Ft. Myers last year and the Twins started him off in Cedar Rapids this year. Povich's 3.28 xFIP looks good and seems reasonable based on the 1.13 WHIP. Povich hasn't shown a huge Achilles heel like a lot of pitchers who struggle with walks or give up a ton of hits. At age 22 in A+ ball, it's not like a 3.38 ERA screams "ace" pitcher, but given the experience level and promotion rate, it's a good sign of him being able to hold his own up the ladder and Povich was a 3rd rounder. Now for the fallers: Brent Rooker - C to D. Rooker was moved this offseason in the Rogers' trade and it's hard to give him a dropping grade considering he's OPS'ing .999 in AAA for San Diego, but... he's in AAA. As a 2017 first rounder, that's not acceptable. Rooker's strikeout rate clearly has the Padres looking at him as a AAAA talent or he'd have seen action by now. It's ironic, San Diego had a need for Rooker's services earlier this year... just as he was hurt. Rooker did get the callup on the 13th for a double-header game, but didn't play and was sent right back to AAA. The advanced metrics on Rooker last year painted him as unlucky and worth some time, but it seems neither the Padres or Twins' coaches have been impressed with what they saw in person. Blayne Enlow - C to D. Enlow finally returned to pitching after losing the vast majority of 2020-2021 to the COVID shutdown and a UCL tear. The Twins decided to protect Enlow from the Rule 5 draft this year, but Enlow's demonstrated poor control with a 4.9 BB/9 rate and he's been very hittable with an 8.9 H/9. Poor control is typical for younger pitchers when returning from TJ, and to Enlow's credit, he has returned quickly. That said, nothing about Enlow's true performance in the minors up until now has warranted excitement and there's no part of his game which is truly impressive this year. Scouting reports are great, but performance has to be there and Enlow needs to start producing. It's actually pretty concerning that Enlow walked nobody in his first two starts... and 11 batters in his last 12.2 IP. Ryan Jeffers - B to C. Jeffers got the thumbs up for a B-grade despite having a rough year at the plate last year. After all, he still had the potential to be a career starting catcher and that's very valuable. Jeffers struggles at the plate have continued this year and the SSS factor is quickly evaporating. Now, it's not like Jeffers has been John Ryan Murphy at the plate as Jeffers continues to hit well enough to justify being a backup catcher, but Jeffers' bat is decidedly below MLB average and his mediocre defense isn't going to offset his weak plate performance enough to be a starter. Projecting Jeffers as more than a career backup doesn't feel likely to me. Matt Canterino - B to C. Canterino may have already pitched more innings in AA this year than he was able to pitch all last year in Low/High A, and Canterino may own a sparkly 1.83 ERA, but the performance is an illusion. With an ugly 5.77 BB/9, helpful .225 BABIP and an absurdly low 0.26 HR/9 thanks to the 2.6% HR/FB rate, the 4.78 xFIP tells a very different story. Beyond the expected performance, there's no way an uninjured pitcher with a 5+ BB/9 rate in the minors can be effective in MLB. Canterino is also closer to his 25th birthday than his 24th at this point. Still some time to turn it around, but this year has been deflating for fans. Aaron Sabato - C to D. The leash on Sabato's lack of performance has ended. After an uninspiring performance in Low A last year, Sabato was promoted to Cedar Rapids and he responded with a home run derby performance to put his stock back on track. Repeating A+ ball this year, Sabato has failed to repeat his home run fueled explosion last year. All that remains is the pedestrian 13.7% walk rate for a 23 year old college power hitter repeating a season in the low minors to go along with the 33% K rate. Sabato's power hasn't been on display this season, managing an ISO of just .174, and that won't get it done with a .214 batting average. Sabato still sports a wRC+ of 107 in the A+ league, but for poor defensive 1B/DH, who was drafted in the first round, that's not going to cut it. Sabato really doesn't look like he's MLB caliber. All in all, Falvey's grade jumps from a 1.67 (C-) to a 2.00 solid C. There were enough upward movers to more than offset the scufflers. The 2021 draft class still looks like it may be Falvey's best with a lot of solid performers, but it's way too early to tell... also, we traded away the best of the prospects in that class with Chase Petty in the Reds' system now where he's pitching very well in Low-A.

League-wide does not apply to each individual pitcher. Some pitchers have vastly different performances than the average. Also, when it comes to the 2nd vs. 3rd time through the order on a league-wide basis, the difference in performance is pretty small. 2022 League xFIP = 3.61 median 1st time = 4.03 median 2nd time = 4.08 median 3rd time This has been the case in every previous year I've looked as well. If the goal is to protect the scoreboard or the pitcher from giving up runs, they should be pulled after the first time through the order. Essentially, there should be no starting pitchers in the game.

Keoni Cavaco owns a slash line of .289/.337/.470 OPS .807 for the past month... I would have never, ever expected him to show .200 ISO level power. If it wasn't for the 34% K rate over that period, I'd be raising my eyebrows.

When it comes to Nick Gordon, it's not possible to understate how very unexpected health issues have impacted him. He's listed at 160lbs, but I suspect he's a bit heavier than that now. At one point, Gordon was nearing 180 before losing 30lbs due to digestive tract issues and then COVID. It's obvious he can still gain a few pounds of muscle and the strength which comes with it. Gordon will likely never be an above average bat, but any player who can carve out a multi-year MLB career has been very successful.

In the way I mean? As in, it's tough to get reliable data from small sample sizes for specific players. Keeping in mind, nobody cares if a pitcher gets worse. If the pitcher has a 0.00 ERA/FIP in the 1st TTO, it's not relevant if their ERA is 1.00 the 2nd time or 3.00 the third time. They're still better than the alternative (middle reliever.)

How dare anybody not vote a player I like as a starter on the ASG... even if that player is less valuable and on an unpopular team? Arraez is borderline for being in the All Star Game with other worthy candidates at first base, and Arraez certainly does not deserve to start. Batting average as the reason Arraez should start over a player with 50% more value added? Jeez. It's not like France isn't batting .320...

Who knows? Sometimes guys are uncoachable until the end of their career flashes before their eyes. The move to Baltimore had to have been a wake up call for Vallimont. It's the end of the road if something doesn't change and making it clear a guy isn't worth a roster spot is a pretty good way of saying "the end is near."

I can't see how August is even a remote possibility. Maaaaaayyyybe the end September if everything goes absolutely perfect. No inflammation. No soreness. No unrelated injuries. No COVID. He's unlikely to even start throwing from the mound until July and there's going to be more than a month of mound work before he's going full strength. Then there's a rehab assignment. The rotowire link I posted included a direct statement from Maeda on June 8th including the hope he could resume mound duty in 2-3 weeks and he wasn't sure if he'd return this year at all. I couldn't find the Twins Twitter statement regarding Maeda, but I don't have a Twitter account so it's possible it was for followers only or something.