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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    The obsession is this is a competitive game. The best and highest ranked players get more playing time. They get more fanfare. They get more compensation. They get more opportunities to succeed if they initially fail.
  2. bean5302
    I don't have a problem with DaShawn Keirsey getting the call as he might be a legitimate 4th outfielder and the Twins do not have one right now, but I'm not sure he's a good fit. I don't think it's likely he gets much playing time as a LHB who is best used as a Buxton fill in as I don't have confidence in Keirsey hitting the ball better than the other lefties. LF Larnach (LHB) CF Buxton (RHB) RF Kepler (LHB) UO Margot (RHB) UO Castro (SHB)
  3. bean5302
    Correa was durable last year as well. The ONLY Twins player on the entire team to qualify with 135 games and 580 (504 required) plate appearances. Correa had a short stint on the IL this year for an unusual injury, and he's qualified his last 4 seasons before this one. I expect he'll qualify again this year as one of the most durable players in MLB at this point. For all his skills at SS, and the unlimited accolades on Twins sites, metrics universally dislike his fielding. RF/9, UZR, DRS, OAA, even Total Zone runs... they're all average-ish to negative since joining the Twins. Correa makes spectacular plays when he can get to the ball, but his range is poor. He's probably more Derek Jeter than Ozzie Smith. That said, he's obviously the kind of highly skilled veteran who is perfect to anchor the Twins infield. Correa is about worth his pay at the conventional $8MM per expected WAR rate. He even earned it last year based on his playoff performance alone.
  4. bean5302
    Wait, you're comparing Wallner to Gallo, yes? Wallner doesn't play 1B. When you look at Gallo in the OF, the loss of his speed made him a liability. There's a reason you can't find any OF metrics for Gallo this year. Washington hasn't wanted to see him in the OF.
  5. bean5302
    What does... "really have to hit" mean? Miranda's wRC+ 115 right now would probably translate to 2 WAR at 1B over a full season. For the 27 players in MLB with 250+ PA at first base last year, Miranda's wRC+ 115 would be tied for 12th and at 2.0 WAR, he'd would have been 9th. He costs the MLB minimum. Here are the players who put up more than 2.0 fWAR at 1B last year. Freddie Freeman 7.8 fWAR $27MM (6yrs $162MM) Matt Olson 6.5 fWAR $22MM (8yrs $168MM) Yandy Diaz 4.3 fWAR $8MM (3yrs $24MM avoid arbitration) Christian Walker 3.9 fWAR $10.9MM (avoid arb 3) Paul Goldschmidt 3.1 fWAR $26MM (5yrs $130MM) Pete Alonso 3.0 fWAR $20.5MM (avoid arb 4, turned down 7yrs $158MM) Josh Naylor 3.0 fWAR $8.5MM (avoid arb 3) Nathaniel Lowe 2.5 fWAR $7.5MM (avoid arb 2) Ryan Noda 2.4 fWAR $700k (Pre-arb) On average, they make $14.7MM this year. 4 will have a long term contract larger than Buxton's under their belt this time next year. All but one will earn more than $10MM next year.
  6. bean5302
    College SS's. First round picks. Switch hitters. Profile as near MLB ready. Limited athleticism expected to probably push both off SS Mediocre power. Lauded hit tools. Twins fans lost their mind in the hype machines which told them what they wanted to hear. MLB #7 https://www.mlb.com/news/final-mlb-mock-draft-2022, CBS #7 https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2022-mlb-mock-draft-orioles-take-termarr-johnson-with-no-1-pick-kumar-rocker-to-padres/ Fangraphs #8 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-mlb-mock-draft/ Let's take a look at some Baseball America and Keith Law pre-draft reviews: Player 1 Player 2 First appearances over AA through first two seasons (cup of coffee + long season) Player 1 - 307 PA .294/.365/.473 OPS .839 wRC+ 119, 10.1% BB, 16.0% K Player 2 - 319 PA .278/.382/.415 OPS .797 wRC+ 130, 11.8% BB, 19.5% K
  7. bean5302
    Gallo can't field anymore. It's not 2020 anymore. He's a butcher out there.
  8. bean5302
    Cory Lewis doesn't have that "brand recognition" in part due to being a late rounder, and he doesn't have any experience outside the low minors so I suspect people have forgotten about him a bit. Fangraphs has him ranked at org #23 for 2023. Pretty low since Fangraphs is definitely in love with "velo" and Lewis' 90-92mph fastball isn't going to tick their boxes. Add in the lost time due to injury and he's got quite a bit to prove in the higher minors. Canterino probably collapsed on the list because it's literally been 5 years since he was healthy. He's 26, has only 34 innings in his career above the low minors where he was struggling with walks. It's unrealistic to think Canterino could be stretched into a full starter role before 2026 even if he were healthy for the first time since 2019.
  9. bean5302
    Brooks Lee already better than Edouard Julien, I see. I mean, worth considering Julien didn't already have major back issues at age 23, and he didn't struggle at AAA. Personally, I view Brooks Lee as a slightly better version of former Twins first rounder and top prospect, Levi Michael at the moment.
  10. bean5302
    An averageish defender at 1B is a quality MLB regular at wRC+ 115. I think that's probably where Miranda's going to sit.
  11. bean5302
    I don't think the players meeting makes a difference at all, and it increasingly feels like the Twins have lost sight of the forest for the trees. Are the pitch calls coming from the bench? That's would be some next level micromanagement.
  12. bean5302
    Hindsight is where all the data is so criticism is going to be hindsight driven. A lot of comments in the forums which essentially put Baldelli or Falvey or whomever in the same place as me or you or any other random fan expecting their level of knowledge is on par with ours. "I can't fault Falvey for xyz" stuff or defending Baldelli because it's up to the players to execute. I would really hope the front office of the Twins is way more knowledgeable than me or any other fan on this site. They make millions of dollars a year to be more knowledgeable, but it often seems their logic/knowledge defies convention wisdom. It's pretty fair to hold the front office and managers accountable for what goes wrong, I'd say.
  13. bean5302
    If you're absolutely desperate to try to defend a bad position, sure.
  14. bean5302
    I was responding to Fire Dan Gladden's comment about the Pohlad's commitment. You jumped in.
  15. bean5302
    Feel free to tell me the specific amount of money the Pohlads should have demanded Falvey spend. I created a Dodgers-like payroll for you... I'd imagine you're not a huge fan of it.
  16. bean5302
    I don't know as I consider it disrespectful. Not sure how to rank the Japanese leagues vs. MiLB. If you consider it AAA level, I think it's fair to consider those guys to be rookies. There's a pretty significant shift in competition level between Japan and Korean leagues to MLB, and many of the players can't make it work. For every Imanaga, there's a Nishioka. Most players take 3-5 professional years to make it through the minor leagues, and Japanese players don't make much more than high end draft picks/prospects in the minors. For example, last year's #30 pick made 8x more money than the average Japanese league player's yearly salary. Skenes' signing bonus was double the highest paid position player in Japan. I think Japanese league players are fair to call "rookies" when they first come to MLB, even if they are very high end "prospects" before that.
  17. bean5302
    Jose Miranda is a solid every day starting position player. The kind of 2.0-3.0 WAR guy who forms the backbone of a team depending on whether or not you have him at 1B or 3B. Unfortunately, the Twins brought in Carlos Santana and he's solidly entrenched at 1B. I expect Kirilloff to be demoted, and Miranda to take over at DH even though I'd prefer to see Santana moved to a DH/bench role while Miranda gets every day time at 1B.
  18. bean5302
    An average, every day position player should produce 2.5 WAR for a good team. Gomez was 2.7 fWAR vs 2.1 bWAR. Fangraphs had Gomez's defense better than Baseball Reference. Offensively, terrible. Defensively, exceptional in an premium defensive position. The difference between a 5-6 WAR full season Buxton and a 2-3 WAR full season Gomez is all bat.
  19. bean5302
    Yeah! Stupid Pohlads spending less than the Dodgers! It's all their fault. If only we could have signed more big names like Blake Snell (11.98 ERA), Jordan Montgomery (4.98 ERA) and Eduardo Rodriguez (hasn't pitched)! We could have shored up our outfield with Cody Bellinger, and made a trade for a big money guy like Kris Bryant! Yeahhhh!!!! Now that's a $275MM roster we could be proud of!
  20. bean5302
    They are ineligible. This was covered on MLBTradeRumors Podcast this morning. 28:05 in. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/05/mlbtr-podcast-the-likelihood-of-a-juan-soto-extension-whats-in-store-for-pete-alonso-and-corbin-carrolls-struggles.html
  21. bean5302
    The implication being Baldelli is trying to win playoff games because they're important, but he's not trying to win regular season games because they're not important. Baldelli has a methodology he and the front office follows. There might be a little wiggle room for an injured pinch hitter in an emergency situation in a must-win playoff game, but for position players, it doesn't change much. Platooning will still take place, just like it did last year in the playoffs. I don't care. That's what they do. What I'm addressing is the assumption it's somehow valuable to play negative value players because it makes them smile or that there's some value in playing a -0.5 WAR player a bunch so they can get this year's Tim Anderson into a 0.0 WAR player or that a 0.0 WAR player with no options is somehow ever valuable.
  22. bean5302
    Woods Richardson has never thrown 95 in his career. Not in high school. Not in the minors. Not in the majors. Not ever. He's never even been close to throwing 95 (average), and I don't know as he's ever thrown a single pitch in his professional career which has hit 95.0mph. It's well established Woods Richardson is throwing harder right now than he's ever thrown, and his average velocity is 93.1 on the season; peaking at 93.7 in the game vs. Toronto where his fastest fastball thrown was 94.7mph (he threw two at 94.7 and two at 94.6). Woods-Richardson worked in the 93.0-94.0mph range pretty consistently that game. Historically, Woods Richardson has struggled with repeating his mechanics, and when he's been sloppy, his velocity has been in the 88-89mph range where his stuff doesn't play. When he's been on target, he's sat at 90-91mph with an occasional pitch flirting with 92mph, and he's been serviceable in the minors like that. We're in new territory for Woods Richardson right now. The original post, which was two weeks ago, was a hot take after a game against Toronto. As a back end starter, Woods Richardson will probably be okay if he keeps his velocity up so I don't see any reason to be concerned about him as the #5 rookie rotation piece. He doesn't generate a ton of grounders and he doesn't generate many swinging strikes right now so expecting him to be better than back end is probably optimistic, but he is figuring out how to pitch at the moment now that he's added 5mph to his fastball out of the blue.
  23. bean5302
    So you're saying Baldelli is not trying to win in the regular season? There is utterly no value in trying to get Margot to replacement level while the team loses games because of Margot's existence on the 26 man.
  24. bean5302
    Fire Gary!!!!
  25. bean5302
    You realize you just jinxed us to a 10 year contract with 9 player opt outs, right?
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